WORLDWIDE VITAMIN D MARKET: 2007-2011E 100.0 90.0 80.0
Million Tests
70.0
2
60.0
700
20
10
6 : +7 R G CA
CA 10 0 2 0720
50.0
GR
.7 %
:
.8 +78
20
20 07-
11E
200
%
7
6 : +5 R G CA
11 -20
EC
.3%
2 : +6 R AG
40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0 2007 00 07 WW market tests
2008 20 008 00 08 DiaSorin tests
AN IMPRESSIVE DEMAND GROWTH OVERTIME
2009 20 009 00 09
2010 20 010 010
2011E 20 011E 01
.1 %
17 173.5
MKT TESTS
79.4
94.9
113.4
132.9
125.3
147.4
149.8
150
133.5
DS TESTS
155.6
200
177.1 17 7
VITAMIN D PENETRATION
0.1
0.2
1.0
4.1
4.5
4.6
1.2
13.1
6.8
14.8
14.3
16.9
10.7
23.6
16.8
23.9
17.0
23.7
50
35.1
40.5
64.8
TESTS/1000 INHAB
100
0 ISRAEL
FRANCE
BELGIUM USA
AUSTRALIA
DENMARK
CANADA GERMANY NETHERLANDS
ITALY SPAIN
UK
CZECH REPUBLIC
PORTUGAL BRAZIL
JAPAN MEXICO
CHINA
VITAMIN D EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH TREND DUE TO: • CLINICAL EVIDENCE DISCOVERY • CHEAP SUPPLEMENTATION AVAILABILITY IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES • MEDIA COVERAGE ON VIT D EFFECTIVENESS
DIASORIN PRESENT IN BOTH PENETRATED/UNDERPENETRATED MARKETS WITH A MKT SHARE BETWEEN 50% AND 90% STILL LARGE OPPORTUNITY IN UNDERPENETRATED OR UNTOUCHED MARKETS
PRODUCT CYCLE OF VITAMIN D ADOPTION PRE - MKT PHASE
INTRODUCTION
GROWTH
MATURITY
DECLINE
USA
BELGIUM AUSTRALIAA
SALES
ISRAEL GERMANY
DENMARK
FRANCE
NETHERLANDS BRAZIL CANADA SPAIN ITALY
UK
MEXICO CZECH REPUBLIC PORTUGAL JAPAN
CHINA*
TIME *CALCULATED ON 100 MLN POPULATION ACCESSING HEALTHCARE
STILL LARGE OPPORTUNITY IN EARLY PHASE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE MARKETS
# TESTS / 1% POPULATION PENETRATION
PRESCRIPTIONS AND POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS INTERNAL MEDICINE HOSPITAL AND HSP LABOUR
16% GENERAL PRACTICE
25%
6% 4%
OBSTETRIC & GYNEC. ENDOCRINOLOGY
4% 4% 2% 2%
30% 5%
MULTI SPECIALTY PRACTICE NEPHROLOGY
2%
GPS AND INTERNISTS ACCOUNT FOR 61% OF TOTAL TESTING PRESCRIPTIONS
REUMATOLOGY PEDIATRICS
FAMILY PRACTICE MAIN CURRENT APPLICATIONS
OTHERS
COMPANY DATA
FUTURE POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS
RATIONALE
DIABETES
INVERSE CORRELATION BETWEEN 25 OH VITAMIN D LEVELS AND BLOOD PRESSURE
HYPERTENSION
INVERSE CORRELATION BETWEEN VITAMIN D LEVELS AND GLUCOSE LEVELS
AUTOIMMUNITY
LOW VITAMIN D LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH PREVALENCE AND PROGRESSION OF AUTOIMMUNE DISEASES (e.g. MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS, RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS)
ENDOCRINOLOGY
THE ENDOCRINE SOCIETY IDENTIFIED CANDIDATES FOR SCREENING USING VITAMIN D BLOOD LEVEL MEASUREMENTS
BONE DISORDERS
CURRENT EVIDENCE ON VIT D TESTING NEED AND FURTHER POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS BOOSTING FUTURE PRESCRIPTIONS
CONSOLIDATED VITAMIN D MARKETS US: VITAMIN D MARKET
21.0%
65 MLN TESTS
• 40% (125MLN) of the US population is Vitamin D deficient* or insufficient, but less then half is tested • Vitamin D tests/year can grow from 53MLN (2011E) to ~ 65MLN in the next 4 years, maturing to ~ 20% market penetration (~ 5% 2011-2015E CAGR) • Pricing: declining
MKT PENETRATION%
20.5% 20.0% 19.5% 19.0% 18.5% 18.0% 17.5%
53 MLN TESTS
20%
17.0% 16.5%
17%
16.0% 2011E
* US Census Bureau Data
EEUROPE: UROPPEE: V VITAMIN ITA AM MIN D MARKET MARK M ARKEETT
2015E
12%
• Vitamin D in european markets can double, from 20MLN (2011E) to ~ 40MLN in the next 4 years (10% penetration); (~ 19% 2011-2015E CAGR). Still, only 1/4 of Vitamin D deficient will be tested
MKT PENETRATION%
40 MLN TESTS • 40% (150MLN) of Europeans are Vitamin D deficient or insufficient, but less than 5% are tested
10% 8% 6%
20 MLN TESTS
10%
4% 2%
• Pricing: declining
5%
0% 2011E
VITAMIN D IN US AND EUROPE: MARKETS THAT DIASORIN WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY
2015E
EMERGING VITAMIN D MARKETS CHINA: VITAMIN D MARKET
6%
• DiaSorin as the only provider on the chinese market with CLIA test just approved • Pricing: increasing
MKT PENETRATION%
5 MLN TESTS • Huge potential: unexplored market
5% 4% 3%
5%
2% 1% 0%
0% 2011E
BRAZIL: VITAMIN D MARKET
• US like market: increased awareness of Vitamin D benefits in Bone Diseases • Pricing: stabilizing
MKT PENETRATION%
• US like market: fast growing demand driven by big reference labs marketing activities
7%
2015E
12 MLN TESTS
6% 5% 4%
6%
3% 2%
1 MLN TESTS 1% 0%
0.5% 2011E
VITAMIN D IN EMERGING MARKETS: A HUGE OPPORTUNITY THAT DIASORIN IS READY TO PLAY
2015E
VITAMIN D IN JAPAN JAPAN VITAMIN D MARKET In Japan, Calcium and Vitamin D deficiency is more prevalent than in the US and Europe (Calcium and Vitamin D in Osteoporosis, Takuo Fajita, et al. Journal of Bone and Mineral metabolism, Japan Volume 9, N°2, August 1991)
Large Japanese Class A evidence Trial demonstrates low Vitamin D levels are associated with more bone fractures (effect of alendronate plus alfacalcidol in osteoporosis patients with high risk of fractures, Hajime Orimo et al. Current Medical Research & Opinion, vol 27, N°6, 2011)
OSTEOPOROSIS
DIASORIN STRATEGY Registration for pediatric indication and osteoporosis
13 MILLION CASES • Treatment given only in advanced disease
2.4MLN tests initially; potential to double in 3 to 5 years
• Rare use of estrogenic replacement therapy (culture) • Common use of Vitamin D derivatives and Calcium
JAPAN: POTENTIAL VITAMIN D MARKET
(Clinical Guidelines for treatment of osteoporosis in Japan, T. Fujita. Calcified Tissue International, Volume 59, Supplement 1, 1996)
• Increased skin pigmentation • Diet low in Vitamin D and low exposure to sunlight
5 MLN TESTS MKT PENETRATION%
PEDIATRICS
6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%
~ 4%
2.0% 1.0%
0%
0% 2011E
VITAMIN D IN JAPAN: AN UNTOUCHED OPPORTUNITY THAT DIASORIN IS READY TO PLAY
