SEMI Outlook – Market Briefing Jerome Boutant Europe Sales manager June 17th , 2015
Agenda • High-level Overview • Fab Investment Trends • Semiconductor Equipment Market • Semiconductor Materials Market • Summary
Overview
Evolution of Chip Demand
The Electronics Ecosystem
2014 2015 Electronic End Equipment
$1,488B
Semiconductors Semiconductor Equipment
$353B $378B $38B
$42B
Materials
$44B Source: SEMI, and McClean Report 2015, IC Insights
$1,584B
$46B
SEMI® membership
Maturing Industry
Source: Presented by Scott McGregor, Broadcom, at SEMI ISS 2015
2015 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts Semiconductor Intelligence (May 15)
8.0%
Semico Research (May 15)
8.0%
IC Insights (Jan 15)
7.0%
VLSI (May 15; IC only)
5.9%
Cowan LRA (Jun 15)
5.1%
JPMorgan (Jan 15; 4% to 6%)
5.0%
Henderson Ventures (Apr 15) Gartner (Apr 15) IDC (Jan 15) WSTS (Jun 15)
4.6% 4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Source: Compiled by SEMI
Fab Trends
Capacity chart does not include LED, EPI, Discrete.
March 20, 2015
Christian G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose
9
Fab Equipment SpendingDriven by Foundry and Memory
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast March 2015
Total Fab Capex by RegionSpending on Fab Construction and Equipping • Total fab capex to increase 3% to 4% in 2015 to reach ~$42B • 36 fab constructions being tracked globally • Equipment spend total: $17B for Memory $14B for Foundry
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
FoundriesRamping capacity in 2015 & 2016
Installed Capacity (Millions wpm)
Installed 200mm Foundry Capacity 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.20 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.00 1.95 2010
Foundry only- 200mm Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
2010 2.12
2011 2.19
2011
2012
2012 2.27
2013
2013 2.29
2014E
2014E 2.28
2015F
2016F
2015F 2.37
2016F 2.43
Equipment Market
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-15(p)
Apr-15(p)
Mar-15(f)
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13 Bookings
Mar-15(f)
Source: SEMI May 2015
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
$1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600
Mar-13
Book-to-Bill Ratio
US$ Millions
SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill (based on three month averages) Billings
1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90
$50 $45 $40
$40
$44
$43
$41
$40
$37 $33
$35
$38
$37
$30
100%
$32
$30
125%
75%
$25
50%
$20
25%
$16
$15
0%
$10
Capital Equipment Revenue
Annual Growth
Source: SEMI and SEMI/SEAJ year end historical reports, SEMI forecast update March 2015
2015F
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-50%
2007
$0
2006
-25% 2005
$5
Annual Growth % (line graph)
150%
2004
Global Capital Equipment Revenue US $B (bar graph)
Capital Equipment MarketModerated cycles?
Materials Market
Global Silicon Wafer Shipment Trends
Source: Rose Associates 1991to 1994; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2014; SEMI Forecast
Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2015
Worldwide Packaging Materials Forecast Actual
US$ Millions
2013 $3,342
2014 $3,476
2015F $3,476
2016F $3,455
Organic Substrates
7,408
7,612
8,196
8,586
Ceramic Packages
2,006
2,075
2,157
2,174
Encapsulation Resins
2,451
2,712
2,922
3,187
Bonding Wire
4,151
3,385
3,260
3,189
Die Attach Materials
666
704
734
752
Others
374
409
451
500
$20,398
$20,373
$21,196
$21,843
-0.1%
4.0%
3.1%
Leadframes
Total % Growth
Totals may not add due to rounding
Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription January 2015
Regional Semiconductor Materials Markets Region Taiwan 22%
China 13%
Europe 7% Japan 16%
SEA 15% North America 11%
Korea 16%
2014 $US B
2015F $US B
% Change
China
$5.83
$6.12
5%
Europe
3.08
3.22
4%
Japan
7.19
7.28
1%
Korea
7.03
7.33
4%
North America
4.98
5.23
5%
Taiwan
9.58
10.02
5%
SEA
6.66
6.97
5%
$44.35
$46.17
4%
Total
2015F = $46.17 billion Source: SEMI May 2015
Totals may not add due to rounding
Summary Industry Overview Connectivity and mobility are the market drivers in a maturing, lower growth industry 2015 Outlook: ~5% growth in semiconductor revenues. Fab Investment Memory and Foundry lead investments. Foundries expand 200mm capacity Overall capacity expansion will trend in the low-single digits Equipment Outlook Solid recovery in overall equipment spending for 2014; expect growth to continue in 2015 Materials Outlook Materials market to top $46 billion in 2015 • Single-digit silicon area shipment growth this year and next
Industry Research and Statistics Reports & Database Packaging, Power Devices, and LED/Opto Electronics
Front End Semiconductor Manufacturing Fabs
Semiconductor and PV Equipment
Semiconductor Materials and Component
• World Fab Forecast: Quarterly
• SEMI Secondary Fab Equipment Report
• FabFutures: Quarterly
• Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS):
• Material Market Data Subscription (MMDS): Quarterly
Globalfoundries
• China Semiconductor Packaging Market Outlook (Q2, ‘15) • Global Packaging Materials Outlook 2015-16 (Q4, ‘15) • SiC & GaN Power Device Industry Report (Q4, ‘15) • Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 2013-14 • Opto/LED Fab Watch or Forecast • China LED Fab Industry Report 2014-2017 (Q3, ‘15)
• World Fab Watch: Quarterly
• Book-to-Bill Report
• Fab Construction and Equipment Monitor
• Historical WWSEMS (1991-2014)
• Fab Transition**,
• Historical Book-to-Bill (1991-2014)
• Fab Historical**
• Photomask Report * • Silicon Reclaim Wafer Report * • Mass Flow Controllers
• PV Equipment Market Book-to-Bill Report
Notes: ** Customized reports * These reports are included FREE with the purchase of the MMDS report, but also available as stand-alone reports.
SEMI Data Collection ProgramsBenefits in Participating • Obtain timely information about the market segments your company participates in • Ensures correct and up-to-date information will be reported to the broader industry • Accurate information helps communicate industry conditions and trends to the financial community and others
SEMI’s Eight Data Collection Programs • Semiconductor Equipment
• • • • • • •
– North America Book-to-Bill Report – Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) Report
PV Equipment Mass Flow Controllers Photoresist and Photoresist Ancillaries Electronic Gases Leadframe Silicon Polysilicon