SEMI Outlook Market Briefing

SEMI Outlook – Market Briefing Jerome Boutant Europe Sales manager June 17th , 2015 Agenda • High-level Overview • Fab Investment Trends • Semicondu...
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SEMI Outlook – Market Briefing Jerome Boutant Europe Sales manager June 17th , 2015

Agenda • High-level Overview • Fab Investment Trends • Semiconductor Equipment Market • Semiconductor Materials Market • Summary

Overview

Evolution of Chip Demand

The Electronics Ecosystem

2014 2015 Electronic End Equipment

$1,488B

Semiconductors Semiconductor Equipment

$353B $378B $38B

$42B

Materials

$44B Source: SEMI, and McClean Report 2015, IC Insights

$1,584B

$46B

SEMI® membership

Maturing Industry

Source: Presented by Scott McGregor, Broadcom, at SEMI ISS 2015

2015 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts Semiconductor Intelligence (May 15)

8.0%

Semico Research (May 15)

8.0%

IC Insights (Jan 15)

7.0%

VLSI (May 15; IC only)

5.9%

Cowan LRA (Jun 15)

5.1%

JPMorgan (Jan 15; 4% to 6%)

5.0%

Henderson Ventures (Apr 15) Gartner (Apr 15) IDC (Jan 15) WSTS (Jun 15)

4.6% 4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

Source: Compiled by SEMI

Fab Trends

Capacity chart does not include LED, EPI, Discrete.

March 20, 2015

Christian G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose

9

Fab Equipment SpendingDriven by Foundry and Memory

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast March 2015

Total Fab Capex by RegionSpending on Fab Construction and Equipping • Total fab capex to increase 3% to 4% in 2015 to reach ~$42B • 36 fab constructions being tracked globally • Equipment spend total: $17B for Memory $14B for Foundry

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

FoundriesRamping capacity in 2015 & 2016

Installed Capacity (Millions wpm)

Installed 200mm Foundry Capacity 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.20 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.00 1.95 2010

Foundry only- 200mm Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

2010 2.12

2011 2.19

2011

2012

2012 2.27

2013

2013 2.29

2014E

2014E 2.28

2015F

2016F

2015F 2.37

2016F 2.43

Equipment Market

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-15(p)

Apr-15(p)

Mar-15(f)

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13 Bookings

Mar-15(f)

Source: SEMI May 2015

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

$1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600

Mar-13

Book-to-Bill Ratio

US$ Millions

SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill (based on three month averages) Billings

1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90

$50 $45 $40

$40

$44

$43

$41

$40

$37 $33

$35

$38

$37

$30

100%

$32

$30

125%

75%

$25

50%

$20

25%

$16

$15

0%

$10

Capital Equipment Revenue

Annual Growth

Source: SEMI and SEMI/SEAJ year end historical reports, SEMI forecast update March 2015

2015F

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

-50%

2007

$0

2006

-25% 2005

$5

Annual Growth % (line graph)

150%

2004

Global Capital Equipment Revenue US $B (bar graph)

Capital Equipment MarketModerated cycles?

Materials Market

Global Silicon Wafer Shipment Trends

Source: Rose Associates 1991to 1994; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2014; SEMI Forecast

Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast

Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2015

Worldwide Packaging Materials Forecast Actual

US$ Millions

2013 $3,342

2014 $3,476

2015F $3,476

2016F $3,455

Organic Substrates

7,408

7,612

8,196

8,586

Ceramic Packages

2,006

2,075

2,157

2,174

Encapsulation Resins

2,451

2,712

2,922

3,187

Bonding Wire

4,151

3,385

3,260

3,189

Die Attach Materials

666

704

734

752

Others

374

409

451

500

$20,398

$20,373

$21,196

$21,843

-0.1%

4.0%

3.1%

Leadframes

Total % Growth

Totals may not add due to rounding

Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription January 2015

Regional Semiconductor Materials Markets Region Taiwan 22%

China 13%

Europe 7% Japan 16%

SEA 15% North America 11%

Korea 16%

2014 $US B

2015F $US B

% Change

China

$5.83

$6.12

5%

Europe

3.08

3.22

4%

Japan

7.19

7.28

1%

Korea

7.03

7.33

4%

North America

4.98

5.23

5%

Taiwan

9.58

10.02

5%

SEA

6.66

6.97

5%

$44.35

$46.17

4%

Total

2015F = $46.17 billion Source: SEMI May 2015

Totals may not add due to rounding

Summary Industry Overview  Connectivity and mobility are the market drivers in a maturing, lower growth industry  2015 Outlook: ~5% growth in semiconductor revenues. Fab Investment  Memory and Foundry lead investments. Foundries expand 200mm capacity  Overall capacity expansion will trend in the low-single digits Equipment Outlook  Solid recovery in overall equipment spending for 2014; expect growth to continue in 2015 Materials Outlook  Materials market to top $46 billion in 2015 • Single-digit silicon area shipment growth this year and next

Industry Research and Statistics Reports & Database Packaging, Power Devices, and LED/Opto Electronics

Front End Semiconductor Manufacturing Fabs

Semiconductor and PV Equipment

Semiconductor Materials and Component

• World Fab Forecast: Quarterly

• SEMI Secondary Fab Equipment Report

• FabFutures: Quarterly

• Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS):

• Material Market Data Subscription (MMDS): Quarterly

Globalfoundries

• China Semiconductor Packaging Market Outlook (Q2, ‘15) • Global Packaging Materials Outlook 2015-16 (Q4, ‘15) • SiC & GaN Power Device Industry Report (Q4, ‘15) • Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 2013-14 • Opto/LED Fab Watch or Forecast • China LED Fab Industry Report 2014-2017 (Q3, ‘15)

• World Fab Watch: Quarterly

• Book-to-Bill Report

• Fab Construction and Equipment Monitor

• Historical WWSEMS (1991-2014)

• Fab Transition**,

• Historical Book-to-Bill (1991-2014)

• Fab Historical**

• Photomask Report * • Silicon Reclaim Wafer Report * • Mass Flow Controllers

• PV Equipment Market Book-to-Bill Report

Notes: ** Customized reports * These reports are included FREE with the purchase of the MMDS report, but also available as stand-alone reports.

SEMI Data Collection ProgramsBenefits in Participating • Obtain timely information about the market segments your company participates in • Ensures correct and up-to-date information will be reported to the broader industry • Accurate information helps communicate industry conditions and trends to the financial community and others

SEMI’s Eight Data Collection Programs • Semiconductor Equipment

• • • • • • •

– North America Book-to-Bill Report – Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) Report

PV Equipment Mass Flow Controllers Photoresist and Photoresist Ancillaries Electronic Gases Leadframe Silicon Polysilicon