Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 7, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

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Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

MSCI World Stock Markets

June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

1-6 7-9

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MSCI World Figure 1. 2500

575

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

6/6

525

6/6 475

2000

425

375 1500 325

275

All Country World MSCI 1000

225

Developed World MSCI 175 yardeni.com

500 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

125

2019

Source: MSCI.

Figure 2. 2250

2400

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES

6/6

(US dollars)

2200

2000 6/6

2000

1750 1800 1500 1600 1250 1400 1000

All Country World MSCI

750

1200

Developed World ex-US MSCI

1000 yardeni.com

500 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

800

2019

Source: MSCI.

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MSCI World Figure 3. 2400

1400

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

2200

6/6

1200

2000

1800

1000

1600 800 1400

1200

600

All Country World 1000 400

Emerging Markets 800 yardeni.com

600 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200

2019

Source: MSCI.

Figure 4. 1500

575

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

6/6

525

475

1000

425

375

325

500

275

Emerging Markets 225

Developed World MSCI 175 yardeni.com

0 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

125

2019

Source: MSCI.

Page 2 / June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

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MSCI World Figure 5. 2400

400

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

2200

6/6

2000

1800

300

1600

1400

1200

200

All Country World 1000

All Country World ex-US 800 yardeni.com

600 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

100

2019

Source: MSCI.

Figure 6. 2400

2800

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

2600

2200

All Country World

2000

6/6

2400

United States

2200

1800

2000 1800

1600

1600 1400

1400

1200

1200 1000

1000

800 800

600 yardeni.com

600 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

400

2019

Source: MSCI.

Page 3 / June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

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MSCI World Figure 7. 2400

300

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

275

2200

All Country World

6/6 250

2000

European Monetary Union (EMU)

225

1800 200 1600

175

1400

150 125

1200 100 1000 75 800

50 yardeni.com

600 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

25

2019

Source: MSCI.

Figure 8. 2400

2000

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

2200

All Country World

2000

6/6

United Kingdom

1500

1800

1600 1000 1400

1200 500

1000

800 yardeni.com

600 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0

2019

Source: MSCI.

Page 4 / June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

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MSCI World Figure 9. 2400

4000

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

2200

All Country World

2000

6/6

Japan

1800

3000

1600

1400

1200

2000

1000

800 yardeni.com

600 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

1000

2019

Source: MSCI.

Figure 10. 2400

120

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

2200

All Country World

2000

6/6

100

China

1800

80

1600 60 1400

1200

40

1000 20 800 yardeni.com

600 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0

2019

Source: MSCI.

Page 5 / June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

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MSCI World Figure 11. 2400

5000

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

4600

2200

6/6

4200

2000

3800

1800

3400 3000

1600

2600 1400

2200

1200

1800

6/6

1000

All Country World

1400

Brazil

1000

800

600 yardeni.com

600 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200

2019

Source: MSCI.

Figure 12. 1500

575

MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)

6/6

525

475

1000

425

375

325

500

275

Emerging Markets 225

Developed World MSCI 175 yardeni.com

0 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

125

2019

Source: MSCI.

Page 6 / June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

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Stock Markets Figure 13. 3000

3000

UNITED STATES: STOCK MARKET 6/6

S&P 500 Index (1941-43=100)

2500

6/6 2500

MSCI Share Price Index (US$, December 31, 1969=100) 2000

2000

1500

1500

1000

1000

yardeni.com

500 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

500

2019

Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

Figure 14. 1800

8000

UNITED KINGDOM: STOCK MARKET

6/7

1700 1600

7000 1500 1400 1300

6000

6/7 1200 1100

5000

1000 900

FTSE 100 Index (January 2, 1984=1000)

800

4000 700

MSCI Share Price Index (US$, December 31, 1969=100)

600

yardeni.com

500 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

3000

2019

Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

Page 7 / June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

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Stock Markets Figure 15. 15000

1200

GERMANY: STOCK MARKET DAX (December 30, 1987=1000)

13000

1100 6/7 6/7

MSCI Share Price Index (euros, December 31, 1969=100)

1000

11000

900

800 9000 700

7000

600

500 5000 400 yardeni.com

3000 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

300

2019

Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

Figure 16. 25000

1200

JAPAN: STOCK MARKET 6/7

Nikkei (5/16/1969=176.21) 20000

6/7 1000

MSCI Share Price Index (yen, December 31, 1969=100)

15000

800

10000

600

yardeni.com

5000 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

400

2019

Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

Page 8 / June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

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Stock Markets Figure 17. 6500

120

CHINA: STOCK MARKET

6000

Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 (12/31/2004=1000)

5500 5000

100

MSCI Share Price Index (yuan, December 31, 1992=100)

4500

80

4000

6/7

3500 3000

60

2500 2000 40 1500 1000 yardeni.com

500 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

20

2019

Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

Figure 18. 90000

350000

BRAZIL: STOCK MARKET

80000

300000 6/6 6/6

70000

250000

60000

200000

50000

150000

40000

Brazil Bovespa (12/29/1983=1000)

100000

30000

MSCI Share Price Index (reals, December 31, 1987=100)

50000

yardeni.com

20000 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0

2019

Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

Page 9 / June 7, 2018 / Market Briefing: MSCI Correlations

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