Stock Market Briefing: Breadth Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 20, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Breadth

January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth

3-9

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Breadth Figure 1. 1.7

1.7

S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED

1.6

1/20

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

.9

.9

.8

.8

.7

yardeni.com

.7

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Figure 2. 4200 3700 3200

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)

1/20

4200 3700 3200

2700

2700

2200

2200

1700

1700

1200

1200

700

700

Equal-weighted S&P 500 Market-cap-weighted S&P 500

200

yardeni.com

200

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 3 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Breadth Figure 3. 2.4

2.4

RATIO OF S&P 500 TO S&P 100 STOCK PRICE INDEXES

2.3

2.3 1/20

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

yardeni.com

1.8

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Figure 4. 3000

1200

S&P 500 & S&P 100 STOCK PRICE INDEXES

1000 1/20 2000

800

600

1000

400

S&P 500 Index 200

S&P 100 Index

0

yardeni.com

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 4 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Breadth Figure 5. 110

110

S&P 100 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 200-DMA*

100

100

90

90

80

80 1/20

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

% above 200-dma (74.3)

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.8% (157) (28) (60) (62) (34)

-5.8% (19)

-6.9% (37)

0

-12.4%-11.6% (96) (101)

yardeni.com

-10 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-10

2018

* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dmas. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 6. 110 100

yardeni.com

S&P 500 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 200-DMA*

110 100

90

90

80

80

70

70

1/20

60

60

50

50

40

40

% above 200-dma (66.6)

30

30

20 10

20

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.8% (157) (28) (60) (62) (34)

-5.8% (19)

-6.9% (37)

10

-12.4%-11.6% (96) (101)

0

0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dma. Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 5 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Breadth Figure 7. 100

100

S&P 100 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 50-DMA*

90

90

80

80

70

70

1/20

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

% above 50-dma (67.3) 0

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.8% (157) (28) (60) (62) (34)

-5.8% (19)

-6.9% (37)

0

-12.4%-11.6% (96) (101)

yardeni.com

-10 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-10

2018

* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dmas. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 8. 100

100

S&P 500 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 50-DMA*

90

90

80

80

70

70 1/20

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

% above 50-dma (64.5) 0

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.8% (157) (28) (60) (62) (34)

-5.8% (19)

-6.9% (37)

0

-12.4%-11.6% (96) (101)

yardeni.com

-10 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-10

2018

* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dmas. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 6 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Breadth Figure 9. 160000

160000

NYSE CUMULATIVE ADVANCE/DECLINE LINES (ISSUES VS VOLUME) (weekly)

1/13

140000

140000

120000

120000

100000

100000

80000

80000 1/20

60000

60000

40000

Issues

40000

20000

Volume

20000

0

-20000

0 yardeni.com 2003

2004

-20000 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

Figure 10. 13000 12000

160000

NYSE CUMULATIVE ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE (ISSUES) (weekly)

1/13

140000

1/20

11000

120000

10000 100000 9000 80000 8000 60000 7000

NYSE Composite Index

40000

A/D Line (Issues)

20000

6000 5000

0

4000 yardeni.com

3000 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-20000

2018

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

Page 7 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Breadth Figure 11. 4400 3700 3000

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)

1/20

S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED 1/20

2300

1.8

1.6

1600

1.4

900

1.2

1.0

Equal-weighted (3563.11) Market-cap-weighted (2271.31)

.8

200

.6 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

1900 1600 1300

S&P 400 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)

1/20

1000

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

S&P 400 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED

.90 .85

1/20

.80

700 .75 400 .70 .65

Equal-weighted (1356.74) .60

Market-cap-weighted (1675.68) 100

.55 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

1280 1080 880

S&P 600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)

1/20

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

S&P 600 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED

1.30 1.25

680

1/20

1.20

480 1.15 280

1.10 1.05

Equal-weighted (999.57) 1.00

Market-cap-weighted (827.56) yardeni.com

80 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

.95

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 8 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Breadth Figure 12. 160000

140000

1.7

NYSE CUMULATIVE ADVANCE / DECLINE LINE vs. RATIO OF EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES

1/13 1.6 1/20

120000 1.5 100000 1.4

80000

60000

1.3

NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line (Issues)

40000

1.2

Ratio of Equal-Weighted to Market-Cap-Weighted S&P 500 Stock Price Indexes

20000

1.1 0 yardeni.com

-20000 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1.0

2018

Source: Standard & Poor’s and The Wall Street Journal.

Page 9 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2017. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on http://blog.yardeni.com www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, http://blog.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. [email protected]