Stock Market Briefing: Breadth Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 20, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683
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Joe Abbott 732-497-5306
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Breadth
January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth
3-9
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Breadth Figure 1. 1.7
1.7
S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED
1.6
1/20
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
.8
.8
.7
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.7
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 2. 4200 3700 3200
S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)
1/20
4200 3700 3200
2700
2700
2200
2200
1700
1700
1200
1200
700
700
Equal-weighted S&P 500 Market-cap-weighted S&P 500
200
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200
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 3 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth
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Breadth Figure 3. 2.4
2.4
RATIO OF S&P 500 TO S&P 100 STOCK PRICE INDEXES
2.3
2.3 1/20
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.8
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1.8
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 4. 3000
1200
S&P 500 & S&P 100 STOCK PRICE INDEXES
1000 1/20 2000
800
600
1000
400
S&P 500 Index 200
S&P 100 Index
0
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0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 4 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth
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Breadth Figure 5. 110
110
S&P 100 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 200-DMA*
100
100
90
90
80
80 1/20
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
% above 200-dma (74.3)
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
-56.8% (517)
-16.0% (70)
-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.8% (157) (28) (60) (62) (34)
-5.8% (19)
-6.9% (37)
0
-12.4%-11.6% (96) (101)
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-10 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-10
2018
* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dmas. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 6. 110 100
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S&P 500 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 200-DMA*
110 100
90
90
80
80
70
70
1/20
60
60
50
50
40
40
% above 200-dma (66.6)
30
30
20 10
20
-56.8% (517)
-16.0% (70)
-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.8% (157) (28) (60) (62) (34)
-5.8% (19)
-6.9% (37)
10
-12.4%-11.6% (96) (101)
0
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dma. Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 5 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth
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Breadth Figure 7. 100
100
S&P 100 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 50-DMA*
90
90
80
80
70
70
1/20
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
% above 50-dma (67.3) 0
-56.8% (517)
-16.0% (70)
-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.8% (157) (28) (60) (62) (34)
-5.8% (19)
-6.9% (37)
0
-12.4%-11.6% (96) (101)
yardeni.com
-10 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-10
2018
* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dmas. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 8. 100
100
S&P 500 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 50-DMA*
90
90
80
80
70
70 1/20
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
% above 50-dma (64.5) 0
-56.8% (517)
-16.0% (70)
-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.8% (157) (28) (60) (62) (34)
-5.8% (19)
-6.9% (37)
0
-12.4%-11.6% (96) (101)
yardeni.com
-10 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-10
2018
* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dmas. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 6 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth
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Breadth Figure 9. 160000
160000
NYSE CUMULATIVE ADVANCE/DECLINE LINES (ISSUES VS VOLUME) (weekly)
1/13
140000
140000
120000
120000
100000
100000
80000
80000 1/20
60000
60000
40000
Issues
40000
20000
Volume
20000
0
-20000
0 yardeni.com 2003
2004
-20000 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
Figure 10. 13000 12000
160000
NYSE CUMULATIVE ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE (ISSUES) (weekly)
1/13
140000
1/20
11000
120000
10000 100000 9000 80000 8000 60000 7000
NYSE Composite Index
40000
A/D Line (Issues)
20000
6000 5000
0
4000 yardeni.com
3000 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-20000
2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
Page 7 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth
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Breadth Figure 11. 4400 3700 3000
S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)
1/20
S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED 1/20
2300
1.8
1.6
1600
1.4
900
1.2
1.0
Equal-weighted (3563.11) Market-cap-weighted (2271.31)
.8
200
.6 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
1900 1600 1300
S&P 400 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)
1/20
1000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
S&P 400 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED
.90 .85
1/20
.80
700 .75 400 .70 .65
Equal-weighted (1356.74) .60
Market-cap-weighted (1675.68) 100
.55 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
1280 1080 880
S&P 600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)
1/20
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
S&P 600 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED
1.30 1.25
680
1/20
1.20
480 1.15 280
1.10 1.05
Equal-weighted (999.57) 1.00
Market-cap-weighted (827.56) yardeni.com
80 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
.95
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 8 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth
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Breadth Figure 12. 160000
140000
1.7
NYSE CUMULATIVE ADVANCE / DECLINE LINE vs. RATIO OF EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES
1/13 1.6 1/20
120000 1.5 100000 1.4
80000
60000
1.3
NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line (Issues)
40000
1.2
Ratio of Equal-Weighted to Market-Cap-Weighted S&P 500 Stock Price Indexes
20000
1.1 0 yardeni.com
-20000 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1.0
2018
Source: Standard & Poor’s and The Wall Street Journal.
Page 9 / January 20, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Breadth
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