Market Briefing: Global Markets Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 18, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683
[email protected]
Mali Quintana 480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
US Stock Indexes MSCI Indexes Stock Markets: USA Stock Markets: Americas Stock Markets: Europe Stock Markets: Asia Stock Markets: Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa US$ Forex Rates: Europe US$ Forex Rates: Asia US$ Forex Rates: Americas Trade-Weighted Dollar 10-Year Government Yields Commodity Indexes Commodity Prices: Energy Commodity Prices: Precious Metals Commodity Prices: Agriculture
January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
1 2-5 6 7 8-9 10-11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
US Stock Indexes Figure 1. 2400
2400
S&P 500 INDEX 1/18
2200
2200
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800 yardeni.com
600 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
600
2018
200-day moving average Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 2. 21300 20400
21300
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE
20400 1/18
19500
19500
18600
18600
17700
17700
16800
16800
15900
15900
15000
15000
14100
14100
13200
13200
12300
12300
11400
11400
10500
10500
9600
9600
8700
8700
7800
7800
6900
6900 yardeni.com
6000 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
6000
2018
200-day moving average Source: The Wall Street Journal.
Page 1 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
MSCI Indexes Figure 3. 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500
SHARE PRICE INDEXES
1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500
1/18
(US dollars)
World
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2400
2400
2200
2200
2000
2000
Europe
1800
1800
1600
1600 1/18
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800 2006
2007
2008
2600 2400 2200
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2600 2400 2200
EAFE*
2000
2000
1800
1800
1/18
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000 yardeni.com
800 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
800
2018
200-day moving average * The following countries are included: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 2 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
MSCI Indexes Figure 4. 2500 2300
2500
SHARE PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)
2300
2100
World
1900
US
2100 1900 1/18
1700
1700
1500
1500
1300
1300
1100
1100
900
900
700
700
500
500 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2500
2500
2300
2300
2100
2100
World EAFE*
1900
1900 1/18
1700
1700
1500
1500
1300
1300
1100
1100
900
900
700
700
500
500 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2000
2000 1/18
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
World
600
600
Emerging Markets
400
400
200
200 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*Europe, Austrailia, and Far East. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 3 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
MSCI Indexes Figure 5. 4000
4000
SHARE PRICE INDEXES (US dollars)
World Japan
3000
3000
2000
2000
1/18
1000
1000
0
0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1900
1900 1/18
World
1700
1700
United Kingdom 1500
1500
1300
1300
1100
1100
900
900
700
700
500
500 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2000
300 1/18
1800
250 1600 200
1400 1200
150
1000
World 100
800
EMU
600
50 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 4 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
MSCI Indexes Figure 6. 1600 1400
1600
SHARE PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale, US dollars)
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000 1/18
800
800
Emerging Markets
600
600
400
400 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
700 650 600 550 500 450
2017
2018
700 650 600 550 500 450
1/18
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
Emerging Markets: Asia
200
200
150
150 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
6500
6500
5500
5500
4500
4500
3500
3500
Emerging Markets: Latin America
2500
2500
1/18
yardeni.com
1500 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1500
2018
200-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 5 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Stock Markets: USA Figure 7. 23100 21100
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
6400
NASDAQ 1/18
1/18
19100
5600 4800
17100 15100
4000
13100
3200
11100
2400
9100 1600
7100 5100
800 06
2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
07
08
17
18 1550 1475 1400 1325 1250 1175 1100 1025 950 875 800 725 650 575 500 425 350 275
RUSSELL 2000 1/17
1/18
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
WILSHIRE 5000
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION
17
18 675 625 575 525 475 425 375 325 275 225 175 125
1/18
1/17
06 12000
08
S&P 500
06 28000 26000 24000 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000
07
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
17
18
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 300
S&P 500 UTILITIES
1/18
11000
06
1/18
10000
250
9000
200
8000 150
7000 6000
100
5000 yardeni.com
4000 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
50
18
200-day moving average Source: Reuters America, Inc and Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 6 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Stock Markets: Americas Figure 8. 2500
UNITED STATES MSCI
5000
ARGENTINA MSCI
(all indexes in US dollars)
1/18
4000
2000
3000
1/18 1500
2000 1000
1000
500
0 06
2500 2300
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
CANADA MSCI
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 3000
CHILE MSCI
2100 1900
2000
1700
1/18
1/18
1500 1300
1000
1100 900 700 500
0 06
8000
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
MEXICO MSCI
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 2000
PERU MSCI
6000 1/18 1/18 4000
1000
2000 yardeni.com
0 06 5000
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
0
18
200-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. BRAZIL MSCI
4000 3000 2000
1/18
1000 0 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
200-day moving average Source: Reuters America, Inc and Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 7 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Stock Markets: Europe Figure 9. 2600 2400 2200
EUROPE MSCI
800
IRELAND MSCI
(all indexes in US dollars)
700 600
2000
500
1800 1600
400
1/18
1400
300
1200
200
1/18
1000
100
800 600
0 06
2500
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
FRANCE MSCI
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 900
ITALY MSCI
2000
700 1/18
1500
500
1000
300 1/18
500
100 06
2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
GERMANY MSCI
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 3500
NETHERLANDS MSCI
3000 1/18
1/18
2500 2000 1500 1000 500
06 1500
07
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
GREECE MSCI
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 1000
SPAIN MSCI
800 1000 600 500 1/18
0 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1/18 17 18
400
yardeni.com 06
07
08
200 09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
200-day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
Page 8 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Stock Markets: Europe Figure 10. 10000
10000
SWEDEN MSCI
(all indexes in US dollars) 8000
8000 1/18
6000
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000 2006
6000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 6000
SWITZERLAND MSCI
5000
5000 1/18
4000
4000
3000
3000
2000
2000
1000
1000 2006
2000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 2000
UNITED KINGDOM MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX
1500
1500
1/18 1000
1000
yardeni.com
500 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
500
2018
200-day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
Page 9 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Stock Markets: Asia Figure 11. 1400 1200
AUSTRALIA MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX
120
CHINA MSCI
(all indexes in US dollars)
100
1000
80
800
1/18
1/18
60
600
40
400
20
200
0 06
4000
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
JAPAN MSCI
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 12000
HONG KONG MSCI
3500
1/18
3000
10000
1/18
8000
2500 6000 2000 4000
1500 1000
2000 06
600
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
SOUTH KOREA MSCI
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 350
TAIWAN MSCI 1/18
300
1/18
400
250 200 200 150 yardeni.com
0 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
100
18
700
SINGAPORE MSCI
600 500
1/18
400 300 200 100 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
200-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
Page 10 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Stock Markets: Asia Figure 12. 1200
INDONESIA MSCI
700
THE PHILIPPINES MSCI
(US$)
600
1000 1/18 800
500
1/18 400
600 300 400 200 200
100
0
0 06
600
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
MALAYSIA MSCI
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 800
INDIA MSCI
500 600 400
1/18 400
1/18 300
200 200
100
0 06
500
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
THAILAND MSCI
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 250
PAKISTAN MSCI
400
200 1/18 1/18
300
150
200
100
100
50
yardeni.com
0 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
0
18
200-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
Page 11 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Stock Markets: Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa Figure 13. 2000
RUSSIA MSCI
400
ISRAEL MSCI
(US$) 1500
300
1000
200
1/18 1/18
500
100
0
0 06
2000
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
POLAND MSCI
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 800
TURKEY MSCI
1500
600
1000
400 1/18 1/18
500
200
0
0 06
1500
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
2000
HUNGARY MSCI
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 2000
EGYPT MSCI
1500
1500
1000
1000
1000
1/18 500
1/18
500
0 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
yardeni.com
0 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI
500
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
0
18 700
SOUTH AFRICA MSCI
600 500
1/18
400 300 1/18
200 100
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
200-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
Page 12 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
US$ Forex Rates: Europe Figure 14. 1.7 1.6
1.7
EUROPE
1.6
($/Euro)
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1/18
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
.8
.8 2006
2.3 2.1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 2.3
UNITED KINGDOM ($/Pound)
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.3
1/18
1.1
1.1 2006
4.5 5.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 4.5
SWEDEN (Krona/$)
5.5
6.5
6.5
7.5
7.5
8.5
8.5
1/18
9.5
9.5
10.5
10.5
11.5
11.5 2006
.4 .6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 .4
SWITZERLAND (Swiss Franc/$)
.6
.8
.8 1/18
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.2 yardeni.com
1.4 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1.4
2018
200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 13 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
US$ Forex Rates: Asia Figure 15. 60
JAPAN
5.6
CHINA
(Yen/$)
(Yuan/$)
6.0
80
6.4 6.8
1/13
100
7.2 1/18
7.6
120
8.0 140
8.4 06
.6 .8
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
AUSTRALIA
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 2.5
MALAYSIA
(inverted scale, A$/US$)
(Ringgit/$)
3.0
1.0 3.5 1.2 1/18
4.0
1.4 1/13
1.6
4.5
1.8
5.0 06
600 800
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
SOUTH KOREA
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 6000
INDONESIA
(Won/$)
(Rupiah/$)
8000
1000
10000 1/13
1200
12000 1/18
1400
14000
1600
16000 06
25 35
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
INDIA
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 25
THAILAND
(Rupee/$, inverted scale)
(Baht/$)
30
45 35
1/18 55
40
65
1/18 yardeni.com
75 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
45
18
200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 14 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
US$ Forex Rates: Americas Figure 16. .8 .9
CANADA
6
MEXICO
(C$/US$)
(Peso/$)
8
1.0
10
1.1
12
1.2
14
1/18
1.3
16
1.4 1.5
18
1.6
20
1.7 06 .1 .6
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
BRAZIL
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1/18 17 18
-5
ARGENTINA
(Real/$)
22
(Peso/$)
0
1.1 1.6
5
2.1 2.6
10
3.1
1/18
3.6
15
1/18
4.1 4.6
20 06
300 350 400
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
CHILE
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
VENEZUELA
(Peso/$)
17
18 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1/13
(Bolivar Fuerte/$)
450 500 550 600 650
1/18
700 750 800 06 800 1200
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
COLOMBIA
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 2.2
PERU
(Peso/$)
(New Sol/$)
2.4 2.6
1600
2.8
2000
3.0 2400
3.2
2800
1/18
1/18
3.4
3200
3.6 yardeni.com
3600 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
3.8
18
200-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 15 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Trade-Weighted Dollar Figure 17. 135 130
135
JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (2000=100, daily)
130
125
125
1/18
JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate (124.59)
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90 yardeni.com
85 95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
85
20
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan.
Figure 18. 160 155 150
160
FED’S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES
155
(daily)
150
Major* (3/73=100)
145 140
145 140
Broad** (1/97=100)
135 130
135 130
1/13
125
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100 1/13
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65 60
65
yardeni.com 73
75
77
60 79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
* Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, ** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Page 16 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
10-Year Government Yields Figure 19. 6.0
UNITED STATES
6.0
GERMANY
5.5
5.5
5.0 5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5 3.0
3.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.5
1.5
1/18
1.0
2.0
.5
1/17
1.5
.0
1.0
-.5 06
7.5
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
CANADA
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 6.5
SWEDEN
6.0
6.5
5.5 5.0
5.5
4.5 4.0
4.5
3.5 3.0
3.5
2.5 2.0
2.5
1.5 1.0
1/17
1/17
1.5
.5 .0
.5
-.5 06
6.5 6.0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
UNITED KINGDOM
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 2.5
JAPAN
5.5
2.0
5.0 4.5
1.5
4.0 3.5
1.0
3.0 2.5
.5
2.0 1.5
1/17
1/18
.0
1.0 yardeni.com
.5 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
-.5 09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
200 day moving average Source: MMS International and Haver Analytics.
Page 17 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Commodity Indexes Figure 20. 525
525
CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX (1967=100)
475
475
425
425
375
375
325
325
275
275
225
225 1/18
175
125
175 yardeni.com 95
96
97
125 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 21. 1150 1050
1150
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=100)
1050
950
950
850
850
1/17
750
750
Raw Industrials (503.8)
650
650
Metals Component (839.1)
550
550 1/17
450
450
350
350
250
250
150
yardeni.com 95
96
97
150 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 18 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Commodity Prices: Energy Figure 22. 190 170
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE
150
(dollars per barrel)
5.0 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0 .6
HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per gallon)
130 110 90 70 1/17
1/17
50 30 10 06 160 140
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18 19
NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE*
(dollars per barrel)
17
(dollar per MMBTU)
15
120
13
100
11 9
80
7 60
1/17
5 1/17
40
3
20
1 06 07 08 09 10 * Nearby futures price.
4.5 3.9
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per gallon)
3.3 2.7 2.1 1/17
1.5 .9
yardeni.com
.3 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 19 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Commodity Prices: Precious Metals Figure 23. 1975 1800 1625
1975
GOLD FUTURES PRICE*
1800
(dollars per troy ounce)
1625
1450
1450
1275
1275
1/17
1100
1100
925
925
750
750
575
575
400
400
225
225 2006
52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4
2400 2200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4
SILVER FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce)
1/17
2006 2600
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 2600
PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*
2400
(dollars per troy ounce)
2200
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200 1/17
1000
1000
800
800
600
600 2006
1000 800
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 1000
PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE ($/troy oz)
800
1/17
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
yardeni.com 2006
2007
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 20 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Commodity Prices: Agriculture Figure 24. 850 750
850
CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
750
650
650
550
550
450
450 1/17
350
350
250
250
150
150 2006
1950 1750
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 1950
SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
1750
1550
1550
1350
1350
1150
1150
1/17
950
950
750
750
550
550
350
350 2006
1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
1/17
2006 250
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 250
COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound)
200
150
150
100
100 1/17
50 0
50 yardeni.com 2006
2007
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract, closing price. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 21 / January 18, 2017 / Market Briefing: Global Markets
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2017. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on http://blog.yardeni.com www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, http://blog.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request.
[email protected]