Market Briefing: Commodity Prices Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 20, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683
[email protected]
Mali Quintana 480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Commodity Price Indexes Energy Basic Metals Lumber Precious Metals Agriculture Misc: CRB Index Misc: Energy Misc: Agriculture Misc: Precious Metals Misc: Grains
January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
1-2 3-4 5 6 7-8 9-10 11-12 13-14 15 16 17-18
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Commodity Price Indexes Figure 1. 600
600
CRB SPOT COMMODITY PRICE INDEX: ALL COMMODITIES* (1967=100)
500
500
1/19 400
400
300
300
200
yardeni.com 95
96
97
200 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
* Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter, soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 2. 700
700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=100, daily) C
600
600
1/19
500
500
400
400
300
300
yardeni.com
200 95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
200
20
C = China enters World Trade Organization. * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
Page 1 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
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Commodity Price Indexes Figure 3. 1150 1050
1150
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=100)
1050
950
950
850
850
1/19
750
750
Raw Industrials (503.2)
650
650
Metals Component (835.3)
550
550 1/19
450
450
350
350
250
250
150
yardeni.com 95
96
97
150 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 4. 675
675
COMMODITY PRICES (1967=100)
575
575
CRB Raw Industrials Price Index 475
1/19 475
CRB Futures Price Index
375
375
275
275
1/20 175
75
175
yardeni.com 95
96
97
75 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 2 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
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Energy Figure 5. 160 150
160
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel)
150
Price (54.16)
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60 1/19
50
50
40
40
30
30
20 10
20 yardeni.com 2004
10
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 6. 4.5
4.5
GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per gallon)
3.9
3.9
Price (1.57)
3.3
3.3
2.7
2.7
2.1
2.1
1/20
1.5
1.5
.9
.3
.9
yardeni.com 2007
.3 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
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Energy Figure 7. 4.6 4.2
4.6
HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per gallon)
4.2
3.8
3.8
3.4
3.4
Price (1.65)
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
1/20
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.0
.6
.6
.2
yardeni.com 2002
.2
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 8. 18
18
NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per MMBTU)
16
16
14
14
12
12
Price (3.20)
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4 1/20
2
0
2 yardeni.com 90
91
92
0 93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Basic Metals Figure 9. 1300
1300
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (daily, 1967=100)
1100
1100
900
900 1/19
700
700
500
500
300
300
100
yardeni.com 2002
2003
100 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 10. 500
500
COPPER FUTURES PRICE* (cents per pound)
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300 1/20
Price (262)
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
yardeni.com 2005
2006
100 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby futures contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 5 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Lumber Figure 11. 525
525
RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES PRICE* ($/1000 board ft)
475
475
425
425
375
375
1/20
325
325
275
275
225
225
175
175
125
yardeni.com 2002
2003
125 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Page 6 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Precious Metals Figure 12. 1975 1800
1975
GOLD CASH PRICE
D
(dollars per troy ounce)
A 1800
1625
1625
Price (1200.55)
1450
1450
1275
1275 1/20
1100
1100
925
925
750
750
575
575
400
400 yardeni.com
225 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
225
2018
200-day moving average D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japan implemented "Abenomics" monetary policy. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 13. 52 48
52
SILVER CASH PRICE (dollars per troy ounce)
48
44
44
40
40
Price (17.01)
36
36
32
32
28
28
24
24
20
20 1/20
16
16
12
12
8
8 yardeni.com
4 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
4
2018
200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 7 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Precious Metals Figure 14. 2400
2400
PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce)
2200
2200
Price (972.20)
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
1/20
800
600
800 yardeni.com 2005
2006
600 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 15. 1000
1000
PALLADIUM CASH PRICE ($/troy oz)
800
800 1/17
Price (763.00) 600
600
400
400
200
200
0
yardeni.com 2002
2003
0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 8 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Agriculture Figure 16. 1950
1950
SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
1750
1750
1550
1550
Price (1067.50)
1350
1350
1150
1150 1/20
950
950
750
750
550
550
350
yardeni.com
350
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 17. 850
850
CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
750
750
650
650
Price (369.75) 550
550
450
450 1/20
350
350
250
150
250
yardeni.com 2002
2003
150 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 9 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Agriculture Figure 18. 1400 1300
1400
WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
1300
1200
1200
1100
1100
Price (428.25)
1000
1000
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500 1/20
400
400
300 200
300 yardeni.com 2002
2003
200 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 19. 2.5
2.5
COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound)
2.0
2.0
Price (0.73) 1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0 1/20
.5
.0
.5
yardeni.com 2002
2003
.0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 10 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Misc: CRB Index Figure 20. 700 650 600
700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* & RECESSIONS (1967=100, daily)
650 600
550
550 1/19
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 50
100 yardeni.com
50
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Weekly from 1962 to 1982, daily thereafter. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 21. 700
700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=100, ratio scale)
600
600
1/19
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
yardeni.com
200
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
Page 11 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Misc: CRB Index Figure 22. 1250 1150 1050 950
1250 1150 1050 950
CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (1967=100, ratio scale)
850
850
1/19
750
750
650
650
550
550
450
450
350
350
250
250
150
yardeni.com 81
83
85
150 87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 23. 670 570
670
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=100, ratio scale)
570 1/19
470
470
370
370
270
270
170
170
yardeni.com
70
70
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * Weekly from 1951 to 1981, daily thereafter. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
Page 12 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Misc: Energy Figure 24. 150 140
150
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel)
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60 1/19
50
50
40
40
30
30
20 10
20 yardeni.com 2004
2005
10 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Nearby futures price. Source: Energy Information Administration and Haver Analytics.
Figure 25. 160
160
COMMODITY PRICES
140
140
120
120
1/19
100
100
80
80
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*
60
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel)
40
20
60 1/19 40
yardeni.com 2005
2006
20 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
Page 13 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Misc: Energy Figure 26. 3.8 3.6
3.8
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS FUTURES PRICES* (dollars per gallon)
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
Heating Oil (1.65)
2.0
2.0
Gasoline (1.57)
1.8
1.8 1/20
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0 yardeni.com
.8 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
.8
2018
* Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 27. 150
150
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel)
100 yardeni.com
100
1/19
50
0
50
0 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
* Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 1946 to 1984, daily thereafter. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 14 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Misc: Agriculture Figure 28. 850 750
850
CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
750
650
650
550
550
450
450 1/20
350
350
250
250
150
150 2006
1950 1750
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 1950
SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
1750
1550
1550
1350
1350
1150
1150
1/20
950
950
750
750
550
550
350
350 2006
1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
1/20
2006 250
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 250
COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound)
200
150
150
100
100 1/20
50 0
50 yardeni.com 2006
2007
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract, closing price. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 15 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Misc: Precious Metals Figure 29. 1975 1800 1625
1975
GOLD FUTURES PRICE*
1800
(dollars per troy ounce)
1625
1450
1450
1275
1275
1/20
1100
1100
925
925
750
750
575
575
400
400
225
225 2006
52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4
2400 2200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4
SILVER FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce)
1/20
2006 2600
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 2600
PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*
2400
(dollars per troy ounce)
2200
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200 1/20
1000
1000
800
800
600
600 2006
1000 800
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 1000
PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE ($/troy oz)
800
1/17
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
yardeni.com 2006
2007
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 16 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Misc: Grains Figure 30. 700
700
S&P GSCI GRAIN INDEX (January 5, 1970=100)
600
600
500
500
400
400
1/20 300
300
200
200
100
yardeni.com 77
79
100
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 31. 800 750
800
S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX (December 31, 1969=100)
750
700
700
650
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450 1/20
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150 yardeni.com
100 70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
100
22
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Page 17 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Misc: Grains Figure 32. 1000 950
1000
S&P GSCI WHEAT INDEX
950
(December 31, 1969=100)
900
900
850
850
800
800
750
750
700
700
650
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
1/20
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 50
100
yardeni.com 70
72
74
50 76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 33. 750 700
750
S&P GSCI CORN INDEX (December 31 1969=100)
700
650
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350 1/20
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 50
100 yardeni.com 70
72
74
50 76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 18 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
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