Market Briefing: Commodity Prices

Market Briefing: Commodity Prices Yardeni Research, Inc. January 20, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-66...
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Market Briefing: Commodity Prices Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 20, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Commodity Price Indexes Energy Basic Metals Lumber Precious Metals Agriculture Misc: CRB Index Misc: Energy Misc: Agriculture Misc: Precious Metals Misc: Grains

January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

1-2 3-4 5 6 7-8 9-10 11-12 13-14 15 16 17-18

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Commodity Price Indexes Figure 1. 600

600

CRB SPOT COMMODITY PRICE INDEX: ALL COMMODITIES* (1967=100)

500

500

1/19 400

400

300

300

200

yardeni.com 95

96

97

200 98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

* Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter, soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 2. 700

700

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=100, daily) C

600

600

1/19

500

500

400

400

300

300

yardeni.com

200 95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

200

20

C = China enters World Trade Organization. * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Page 1 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Commodity Price Indexes Figure 3. 1150 1050

1150

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=100)

1050

950

950

850

850

1/19

750

750

Raw Industrials (503.2)

650

650

Metals Component (835.3)

550

550 1/19

450

450

350

350

250

250

150

yardeni.com 95

96

97

150 98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 4. 675

675

COMMODITY PRICES (1967=100)

575

575

CRB Raw Industrials Price Index 475

1/19 475

CRB Futures Price Index

375

375

275

275

1/20 175

75

175

yardeni.com 95

96

97

75 98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 2 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Energy Figure 5. 160 150

160

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel)

150

Price (54.16)

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60 1/19

50

50

40

40

30

30

20 10

20 yardeni.com 2004

10

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 6. 4.5

4.5

GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per gallon)

3.9

3.9

Price (1.57)

3.3

3.3

2.7

2.7

2.1

2.1

1/20

1.5

1.5

.9

.3

.9

yardeni.com 2007

.3 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Energy Figure 7. 4.6 4.2

4.6

HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per gallon)

4.2

3.8

3.8

3.4

3.4

Price (1.65)

3.0

3.0

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.2

1.8

1.8

1/20

1.4

1.4

1.0

1.0

.6

.6

.2

yardeni.com 2002

.2

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 8. 18

18

NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per MMBTU)

16

16

14

14

12

12

Price (3.20)

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4 1/20

2

0

2 yardeni.com 90

91

92

0 93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Basic Metals Figure 9. 1300

1300

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (daily, 1967=100)

1100

1100

900

900 1/19

700

700

500

500

300

300

100

yardeni.com 2002

2003

100 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 10. 500

500

COPPER FUTURES PRICE* (cents per pound)

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300 1/20

Price (262)

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

yardeni.com 2005

2006

100 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby futures contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 5 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Lumber Figure 11. 525

525

RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES PRICE* ($/1000 board ft)

475

475

425

425

375

375

1/20

325

325

275

275

225

225

175

175

125

yardeni.com 2002

2003

125 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Page 6 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Precious Metals Figure 12. 1975 1800

1975

GOLD CASH PRICE

D

(dollars per troy ounce)

A 1800

1625

1625

Price (1200.55)

1450

1450

1275

1275 1/20

1100

1100

925

925

750

750

575

575

400

400 yardeni.com

225 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

225

2018

200-day moving average D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japan implemented "Abenomics" monetary policy. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 13. 52 48

52

SILVER CASH PRICE (dollars per troy ounce)

48

44

44

40

40

Price (17.01)

36

36

32

32

28

28

24

24

20

20 1/20

16

16

12

12

8

8 yardeni.com

4 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

4

2018

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 7 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Precious Metals Figure 14. 2400

2400

PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce)

2200

2200

Price (972.20)

2000

2000

1800

1800

1600

1600

1400

1400

1200

1200

1000

1000

1/20

800

600

800 yardeni.com 2005

2006

600 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 15. 1000

1000

PALLADIUM CASH PRICE ($/troy oz)

800

800 1/17

Price (763.00) 600

600

400

400

200

200

0

yardeni.com 2002

2003

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 8 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Agriculture Figure 16. 1950

1950

SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)

1750

1750

1550

1550

Price (1067.50)

1350

1350

1150

1150 1/20

950

950

750

750

550

550

350

yardeni.com

350

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 17. 850

850

CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)

750

750

650

650

Price (369.75) 550

550

450

450 1/20

350

350

250

150

250

yardeni.com 2002

2003

150 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 9 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Agriculture Figure 18. 1400 1300

1400

WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)

1300

1200

1200

1100

1100

Price (428.25)

1000

1000

900

900

800

800

700

700

600

600

500

500 1/20

400

400

300 200

300 yardeni.com 2002

2003

200 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 19. 2.5

2.5

COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound)

2.0

2.0

Price (0.73) 1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0 1/20

.5

.0

.5

yardeni.com 2002

2003

.0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 10 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Misc: CRB Index Figure 20. 700 650 600

700

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* & RECESSIONS (1967=100, daily)

650 600

550

550 1/19

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100 50

100 yardeni.com

50

62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Weekly from 1962 to 1982, daily thereafter. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 21. 700

700

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=100, ratio scale)

600

600

1/19

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

yardeni.com

200

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Page 11 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Misc: CRB Index Figure 22. 1250 1150 1050 950

1250 1150 1050 950

CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (1967=100, ratio scale)

850

850

1/19

750

750

650

650

550

550

450

450

350

350

250

250

150

yardeni.com 81

83

85

150 87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 23. 670 570

670

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=100, ratio scale)

570 1/19

470

470

370

370

270

270

170

170

yardeni.com

70

70

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * Weekly from 1951 to 1981, daily thereafter. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Page 12 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Misc: Energy Figure 24. 150 140

150

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel)

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60 1/19

50

50

40

40

30

30

20 10

20 yardeni.com 2004

2005

10 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

* Nearby futures price. Source: Energy Information Administration and Haver Analytics.

Figure 25. 160

160

COMMODITY PRICES

140

140

120

120

1/19

100

100

80

80

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*

60

Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel)

40

20

60 1/19 40

yardeni.com 2005

2006

20 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

Page 13 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Misc: Energy Figure 26. 3.8 3.6

3.8

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS FUTURES PRICES* (dollars per gallon)

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

Heating Oil (1.65)

2.0

2.0

Gasoline (1.57)

1.8

1.8 1/20

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0 yardeni.com

.8 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

.8

2018

* Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 27. 150

150

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel)

100 yardeni.com

100

1/19

50

0

50

0 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

* Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 1946 to 1984, daily thereafter. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 14 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Misc: Agriculture Figure 28. 850 750

850

CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)

750

650

650

550

550

450

450 1/20

350

350

250

250

150

150 2006

1950 1750

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 1950

SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)

1750

1550

1550

1350

1350

1150

1150

1/20

950

950

750

750

550

550

350

350 2006

1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200

200

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200

WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)

1/20

2006 250

2007

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 250

COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound)

200

150

150

100

100 1/20

50 0

50 yardeni.com 2006

2007

0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract, closing price. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 15 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Misc: Precious Metals Figure 29. 1975 1800 1625

1975

GOLD FUTURES PRICE*

1800

(dollars per troy ounce)

1625

1450

1450

1275

1275

1/20

1100

1100

925

925

750

750

575

575

400

400

225

225 2006

52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4

2400 2200

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4

SILVER FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce)

1/20

2006 2600

2007

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 2600

PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*

2400

(dollars per troy ounce)

2200

2000

2000

1800

1800

1600

1600

1400

1400

1200

1200 1/20

1000

1000

800

800

600

600 2006

1000 800

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 1000

PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE ($/troy oz)

800

1/17

600

600

400

400

200

200

0

yardeni.com 2006

2007

0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 16 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Misc: Grains Figure 30. 700

700

S&P GSCI GRAIN INDEX (January 5, 1970=100)

600

600

500

500

400

400

1/20 300

300

200

200

100

yardeni.com 77

79

100

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Figure 31. 800 750

800

S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX (December 31, 1969=100)

750

700

700

650

650

600

600

550

550

500

500

450

450 1/20

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150 yardeni.com

100 70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

100

22

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Page 17 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

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Misc: Grains Figure 32. 1000 950

1000

S&P GSCI WHEAT INDEX

950

(December 31, 1969=100)

900

900

850

850

800

800

750

750

700

700

650

650

600

600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300

1/20

250

250

200

200

150

150

100 50

100

yardeni.com 70

72

74

50 76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Figure 33. 750 700

750

S&P GSCI CORN INDEX (December 31 1969=100)

700

650

650

600

600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350 1/20

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100 50

100 yardeni.com 70

72

74

50 76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 18 / January 20, 2017 / Commodity Prices

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

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