Global Market Outlook:

A PAUMANOK GROUP REPORT! SEPTEMBER 2008 C a p ac i t o r Fo i l : G l obal Marke t O u t l ook : 2 008- 20 13 Capacitor Foil: Global Market Outlook:...
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A PAUMANOK GROUP REPORT!

SEPTEMBER 2008

C a p ac i t o r Fo i l : G l obal Marke t O u t l ook : 2 008- 20 13 Capacitor Foil: Global Market Outlook: 2008-2013

A Global Analysis of Thin Foil Stock and Etched Anode and Cathode Foils Consumed in The Global Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor Industr y With Forecasts To 2013 Market Review and Outlook: SUMMARY OF CONTENTS 1.0 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS

2.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3.0 ALUMINUM MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013

4.0 CAPACITOR FOILS: TECHNICAL ECONOMICS

5.0 CAPACITOR FOILS: TECHNICAL-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

6.0 ALUMINUM CAPACITORS: MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013

6.0 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN CAPACITOR FOILS

7.0 CUSTOMERS FOR CAPACITOR FOILS

8.0 CAPACITOR FOILS: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013

This study addresses the global supply chain for electrolytic foils consumed in capacitors. This is a narrow segment of the overall aluminum market, but is considered a value-added and application specific portion of the supply chain for aluminum metal.

!Market forecasts for aluminum foil consumption in the capacitor industry: 2008-2013 Who Should Buy This Report? This study should be used as a guide by the aluminum foil supply chain to manage the changes in the market as they occur,

Technical-Economic Forecasting:

About The Author?

The study forecasts demand for thin dielectric aluminum foils used in capacitor anodes and cathodes to 2013 based upon consumption in various types and configurations of aluminum capacitors. The study also addresses the competitive nature of aluminum as a dielectric when compared with competing technologies.

This study has been written by Dennis M. Zogbi, CEO and founder of Paumanok Publications, Inc., with 20 years experience and active industry participation in the complete aluminum capacitor supply chain.

Key Findings:

This study can be downloaded immediately to your hard drive form our secure web site at www.paumanokgroup.com

The study addresses key issues that will face the industry between 2008 and 2013, including the impact of raw material p r i c e i n c re a s e s o n c a p a c i t o r manufacturers, and how competition for aluminum from multiple industries and regions will continue to impact the cost of goods sold in the capacitor industry over time. The study also addresses these topicsCritical Sections of The Report: !Forecasted price increases for thin aluminum foil 2008-2013 !Forecasted value and volume increases for etched anode and cathode foils: 2008-2013. !Trends in Thin Foil Production !Trends in Captive Etching of Foil !Trends in Capacitor Production !Competitive Environment in Foil Supply to The Capacitor Industry.

CAPACITOR FOIL: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013!

How To Order This Report?

Otherwise, an order form appears at the end of this advertisement. You can fill that out and fax it to (919) 468-0386 for immediate processing. We accept M a s t e rc a rd Express.

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© PAUMANOK PUBLICATIONS, INC. 1

A PAUMANOK GROUP REPORT!

SEPTEMBER 2008

Table of Contents Capacitor Foil: 2008-2013 Global Market Outlook INTRODUCTION: SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS: MARKET SIZE. 8 CAPTIVE AND MERCHANT MARKETS FOR FOIL. 8 THIN FOIL PRICING TRENDS 8 DEMAND TREND 8 STATUS OF THE ALUMINUM CAPACITOR INDUSTRY: 2008 8 ALUMINUM CAPACITORS FOR DIGITAL ELECTRONICS: 2008– 2013 9 ALUMINUM CAPACITORS FOR POWER AND INDUSTRIAL ELECTRONICS: 2008–2013 9 COSTS OF FOIL IMPACTING MANUFACTURERS OF CAPACITORS 9 INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION IN THE FOIL SUPPLY CHAIN 9 CHINA BECOMES MORE OF A GLOBAL PLAYER IN CAPACITOR FOILS 9 ALUMINUM ELECTROLYTIC: COMPLETE SUPPLY CHAIN IN CHINA 10 VERTICAL INTEGRATION TREND 10 NEW INVESTMENTS 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: CAPACITOR FOILS: GLOBAL MARKETS: 2008–2013 SUPPLY CHAIN FOR CAPACITOR FOILS: 2008 11 Global Supply Chain for Aluminum Foil Used in Electrolytic Capacitors: 2008 12 ALUMINUM CAPACITOR PRODUCTION VOLUMES BY TYPE: 2008 12 RAW MATERIAL PRICES IMPACTING CAPACITOR PRODUCTION: 2008 13 THE GRANDER CONCEPT: COMPETITION FOR ALUMINUM 2008–2013 13 PRICE INCREASES FOR ALTERNATIVE AND COMPETITIVE ELECTROLYTIC METALS 14 TRENDS IN THIN ALUMINUM SHEET: 2008–2013 14 Thinner, More Mechanically Robust Foils 14 TRENDS IN ETCHED ANODE AND CATHODE FOIL DEVELOPMENT: 2008–2013 14 CAPTIVE VERSUS MERCHANT MARKETS: 2008–2013 15 CAPACITOR CUSTOMERS (ALUMINUM): 2008 15 STUDY CONCLUSIONS: 2008–2013 15 TEN-YEAR ALUMINUM PRICING TREND: 1997–2008 16 IMPACT OF RISING ALUMINUM COSTS & IMPACT ON THE ALUMINUM ELECTROLYTIC CAPACITOR INDUSTRY: 2009–2011 17 TEARDOWN OF MATERIALS CONTENT OF AN ALUMINUM CAPACITOR: 2008 19 ALUMINUM RAW MATERIAL MARKETS: 2008 TOP PRODUCING BAUXITE MINES: 2008 21

CAPACITOR FOIL: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013!

TOP COMPANIES COMPETING IN THE PRODUCTION OF BAUXITE: 2008 22 GLOBAL ALUMINA PRODUCTION: 2008 24 Aluminum Process Materials Pricing: Why Prices are Rising 24 COST CONTRIBUTORS TO THE PRICE OF ALUMINUM SMELTING: 2008 25 ALCOA ON COSTS TO PRODUCE: 2008 2Q 25 CAUSTIC SODA PRICE COMPARISON: 1H 2007 VERSUS 1H 2008 26 CALCINED COKE PRICE COMPARISON: 1H 2007 VERSUS 1H 2008 26 COMPETITION FOR ALUMINUM BETWEEN INDUSTRIES: 2008 27 TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY: 2008 28 CONSTRUCTION MARKET: 2008 29 ALUMINUM DEMAND OUTLOOK BY WORLD REGION: 2008– 2017 29 DEMAND FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY: 2009–2011 31 DEMAND FROM THE POWER INFRASTRUCTURE MARKETS 31 ALUMINUM SMELTERS NOTE INSUFFICIENT POWER GENERATION NOW WILL DRIVE DEMAND FOR ALUMINUM IN THE FUTURE. 32 DEMAND FOR NEW TURBINE BLADES TO 2011 32 GLOBAL OIL RIG COUNTS TO 2011 33 NEW ALUMINUM RESOURCES TO MINES: 2017 33 OUTLOOK FOR ALUMINUM PRICING 33 Aluminum Prices Driven by High Energy Costs: 2008– 2013 34 Google Search Excerpts for Aluminum Prices in July of 2008 34 SUPPLY CHAIN FOR ALUMINUM CAPACITORS: MINES TO ANODES36 RECOVERY, CRUSHING, AND GRINDING. 36 Settling 36 Precipitation 37 Calcination 37 Smelting 37 Energy Costs 38 CAPACITOR FOILS: TECHNICAL-ECONOMICS Construction 39 Thin Aluminum Foil Suppliers 39 Aluminum Foil Etchers 40 Etched Foil Pricing 40 Competitive Advantage of In-House Etching of Aluminum Foils 41 IMPORTANCE OF ALUMINUM CAPACITORS IN THE HIGH TECH ECONOMY: 2008–2013 41 CAPACITANCE RANGE 41 VOLTAGE RATING 42

© PAUMANOK PUBLICATIONS, INC. 2

ANODE AND CATHODE FOIL: SUPPLY CHAIN 2008 ! CIRCUIT APPLICATIONS 42 COMPONENT CONFIGURATIONS 42 CONSTRUCTION METHODS 43 RAW MATERIAL COSTS & COMPARISON 44 VOLATILITY OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN IN COMPETITIVE TECHNOLOGIES 45 ALUMINUM CAPACITOR RAW MATERIALS NETWORK 45 CAPACITOR FOIL SUPPLY TO THE ALUMINUM ELECTROLYTIC CAPACITOR INDUSTRY: 2008-2013 THIN ALUMINUM FOIL (POROUS & SOLID CORE) 45 Purity Level Requirements 45 Price of Thin Foil and How It Is Sold 46 Thin Aluminum Foil Shipments to the Electrolytic Capacitor Industry: 2008–2013 46 THIN ALUMINUM FOIL SUPPLIERS 48 Japan 48 Europe 48 Americas 48 ETCHING OF THIN ALUMINUM FOIL 48 Cost to Etch Anode and Cathode Foils 48 In-House Etching at the Capacitor Houses: 2008 48 POROUS VS. SOLID-CORE FOIL MARKETS 49 Variations on Foil Sales 49 GLOBAL THIN HIGH-PURITY FOIL CONSUMPTION: 2008 49 Thin Foil Stock for Capacitors: Global Value, Volume, and Pricing 49 ALUMINUM FOIL ETCHERS 50 COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE OF INHOUSE ETCHING OF ALUMINUM FOILS 50 COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES IN FOIL ANODIZATION 51 ALUMINUM FOIL PROCESSING CONSIDERATIONS 51 CATHODE FOILS (THE NEGATIVE CONNECTION) 51 Cathode Foils and Their Thicknesses 52 ANODE FOILS (THE POSITIVE CONNECTION) 52 Anode Foils and Their Thicknesses 52 ETCHED FOIL PRICING. 52 Anode Foils Pricing per Square Meter and Pound: 53 Cathode Foils Pricing per Square Meter and Pound: 53 FOIL PRICING TREND: 1997–2008; FORECASTS TO 2013 53 VALUE OF GLOBAL SHIPMENTS FOR ETCHED ANODE AND CATHODE FOILS: 2008 55 THE ELECTROLYTIC FOIL MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY: 2008-2013 57

ALUMINUM ELECTROLYTIC CAPACITORS: GLOBAL MARKET STRUCTURE: 2008 ALUMINUM CAPACITORS 58 Aluminum Capacitor Types 58 Aluminum Capacitor Configurations 58 ALUMINUM CAPACITOR MARKET VALUE AND VOLUME: 2008 58 Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors: Top Manufacturers 2008 59 ALUMINUM CAPACITOR CONSUMPTION BY END-USE MARKET SEGMENT: 2008 60 Consumer A/V Markets 60 Computers/Peripherals 60 Industrial Electronics 61 Automotive Markets 61 Telecom 61 Specialty 61 WORLDWIDE CONSUMPTION OF ALUMINUM ELECTROLYTIC CAPACITORS BY CAPACITANCE VALUE: 2008 62 WORLDWIDE CONSUMPTION OF ALUMINUM ELECTROLYTIC CAPACITORS BY VOLTAGE RATING: 2008 63 MARKETS FOR ALUMINUM CAPACITORS BY CAPACITANCE AND VOLTAGE RATING 64 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN CAPACITOR FOILS: 2008 TOTAL SUPPLY OF ETCHED ANODE AND CATHODE FOILS TO THE CAPACITOR INDUSTRY: 2008 MARKET SHARES 66 MERCHANT MARKET SUPPLIERS OF ETCHED ANODE AND CATHODE FOILS TO THE CAPACITOR INDUSTRY: 2008 67 CAPACITOR FOILS: GLOBAL FORECAST SUMMARY: 2008–2013 PRICE FORECAST FOR ETCHED ALUMINUM FOILS FOR THE CAPACITOR INDUSTRY: 2008–2013 70 VALUE FORECAST FOR ETCHED ALUMINUM FOILS FOR THE CAPACITOR INDUSTRY: 2008–2013 70

SEPTEMBER 2008 Shin-Etsu Film Company Limited 74 Showa Denko K.K. 75 Showa Denko Sakai Aluminum K.K. (SSK) 75 Southwest Aluminum China 76 Sumitomo Light Metal Ind. Ltd.. 77 Zhaoqing Hua Feng Electronic Aluminum Foil Co., Ltd. 77 MERCHANT MANUFACTURER OF ETCHED ALUMINUM FOILS Almeco SPA 78 Alcan Packaging Singen GmbH 78 Aluko Co, Ltd.. 78 Arora Technologies, Inc. 79 Becromal Spa 79 Japan Capacitor Industrial Company Limited (JCC) 80 KDK Corporation 80 GARMCO-Republic Foil 80 Joinworld Co., Ltd 81 Lidun Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. 81 United Technology Group 82 Sanhe Electronics Co., Ltd.. 82 Weihao Aluminum Co., Ltd.. 82 CAPTIVE MANUFACTURERS OF ETCHED CAPACITOR FOILS BCComponents (Vishay) 83 Man Yue Electronics Company Limited 83 Hitachi AIC Capacitor Foils 83 Luxon Electronics 83 Nichicon Corporation 84 Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation 85 Panasonic Electronic Devices Co., Ltd. 85 Panasonic (ACOM) 85 Rubycon Corporation 85 Rubycon—Shin-Ei Capacitor Foil Inc.. 86 Samwha Capacitor (JCC Korea JV) 86 Haimen Sancon Electronics Co., LTD 86 Yangzhou Shengda Group 86 Shine Top Electronics Corporation 86

DIRECTORY OF RESOURCES: 2008 MANUFACTURERS OF THIN ALUMINUM FOIL JW Aluminum 71 Nippon Light Metal Co. Ltd. (Toyo Aluminum KK) 71 NLM–Toyo Aluminum KK 71 Norandal USA, Inc. 73 Rio Tinto Alcan - Pechiney CRV (Sells Mercus and Closes Froges) 73 Alcoa Specialty Products 74 Huayi Aluminium Co., Ltd. 74

CAPACITOR FOIL: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013!

CAPACITOR FOIL: Global Market Outlook: 2008-2013

SEPTEMBER 2008 CAPACITOR FOIL: Global Market Outlook: 2008-2013 86 PAGES. $2500 USD

© PAUMANOK PUBLICATIONS, INC. 3

CAPACITOR FOIL SUPPLY CHAIN: 2008!

SEPTEMBER 2008

Charts & Figures Table of Charts and Figures Study Forecast and Historical Reference, Global Consumption Volume for Aluminum in the Capacitor Industry: 1997-2008; 2008-2013 Forecasts ...................................................... 11 Global Supply Chain for Aluminum Foil Consumed in Electrolytic Capacitors: 2008 (Bauxite to Aluminum to Sheet to Capacitor Foil) ...................................................... 12 10-Year Aluminum Price Change (1988–2008) ...................................................... 16 One-Year Aluminum Price Forecasts: 2008–2009 ...................................................... 17 Nippon Chemi-Con: Cost of Goods Sold 2004–2008; 2009– 2011 Forecast ...................................................... 18 Nichicon: Cost of Goods Sold 2004–2008; 2009–2011 Forecast ...................................................... 19 Average Weight in Grams of Material Consumed in an Aluminum Capacitor (Total Weight= 2.76 Grams) ...................................................... 20 Worldwide Bauxite Production: 2008 (200,000 Tons Estimated) ...................................................... 21

Top Producing Bauxite Mines in 2008—Estimated Output (200,000 Tons) ...................................................... 22 Top Global Companies Competing in Bauxite: 2008 Market Share Data ...................................................... 23

Global Production & Forecasts for Military & Commercial Aircraft: 2002-2007; 2008-2013 Forecasts ...................................................... 31 Delays in Smelter Production: 150 KMT to 750 KMT in 2008 ...................................................... 32

Alumina Processors: 2008 Estimated Market Shares ...................................................... 24

Global Heavy Duty Turbine Blade Sales Forecasts ...................................................... 32

Cost Contributors to the Price of Aluminum Smelting: 2008 ...................................................... 25

Global Oil Rig Counts to 2011 ...................................................... 33

Caustic Soda Price Comparison: 1H 2007 versus 1H 2008 ...................................................... 26

Anode and Cathode Foils Price Structure by Voltage Rating ...................................................... 40

Calcined Coke Prices: 1H 2007 versus 1H 2008 ...................................................... 27

Primary Feedstock Required to Produce an Aluminum Capacitor: 2008 ...................................................... 43

Global Aluminum Consumption Volume by Market Segment: 2008 ...................................................... 28

Primary Feedstock Required to Produce an Aluminum Capacitor: 2005 ...................................................... 44

Forecasted Aluminum Consumption by World Region to 2017 ...................................................... 30

Thin Aluminum Foil Shipments to the Electrolytic Capacitor Industry: 1997–2008; 2008–2013 Forecast (In Millions of Pounds) ...................................................... 47

Worldwide Aluminum Consumption Trends and Forecasts by World Region: 1998–2007; 2008–2017 ...................................................... 30

CAPACITOR FOIL: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013!

Average Unit Price for Etched Anode and Cathode Foils: 1997– 2008; 2008 Competitive Advantages in Foil Anodization 2013 © PAUMANOK PUBLICATIONS, INC. 4

CAPACITOR FOIL SUPPLY CHAIN 2008!

...................................................................................... 54 Cost Equivalent of Etched Anode and Cathode Consumed in Aluminum Capacitors: 2008 (Combined Value of Captive and Merchant Markets) ...................................................................................... 56 Global Consumption Volume for Etched Anode and Cathode Foils: 1997–2008; 2008–2013 ...................................................................................... 57 Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors: Global Market Shares: 2008 FY Ending March ...................................................................................... 59

SEPTEMBER 2008

Volume of Demand for Etched Anode and Cathode Foils for the Capacitor Industry: 2008-2013 ...................................................................................... 69 Price per Pound Forecasts for Etched Aluminum to the Capacitor Industry ...................................................................................... 70 NLM Group Fabricated Metal Product Group Sales (Includes Capacitor Foils): 2002–2007 FY Ending March ...................................................................................... 72

Global Market Shares in Aluminum Capacitors: FY 2008 Ending March Based Upon $3.95 Billion USD Market ...................................................................................... 60 Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor Consumption by End-Use Market Segment: 2008 ...................................................................................... 62 Worldwide Consumption Value of Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors by Capacitance Range ...................................................................................... 63 Consumption Value of Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors by Voltage Rating ...................................................................................... 64 Profit Centers in the Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor Market Based Upon Capacitance and Voltage Rating ...................................................................................... 65 Captive versus Merchant Market Production of Etched Anode and Cathode Foils: 2008 ...................................................................................... 66 Captive and Merchant Production of Etched Anode & Cathode Foils for the Capacitor Industry: 2008 ...................................................................................... 67 Merchant Market Suppliers of Etched Anode Foil to the Capacitor Industry: 2008 ...................................................................................... 68

CAPACITOR FOIL: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013!

© PAUMANOK PUBLICATIONS, INC. 5

CAPACITOR FOIL SUPPLY CHAIN: 2008-2013!

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SEPTEMBER 2008

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CAPACITOR FOIL: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013!

© PAUMANOK PUBLICATIONS, INC. 6

CAPACITOR FOIL: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013!

CAPACITOR FOIL: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: 2008-2013!

SEPTEMBER 2008

© PAUMANOK PUBLICATIONS, INC. 7