10-year trends in the global crane industry

Chris Sleight, Business Correspondent International Cranes & Specialised Transport

Contents Manufacturers – 10-year trends Revenues, share price, link to GDP Crane owners – 10-year trends Fleet size, mobiles vs crawlers, Europe vs North America

Source – World Crane Report Unique study of the global industry

 10-year study  Manufacturer trends  Owner trends  Insights into fleet composition  Links to wider economic trends

Manufacturers – top 20 by crane revenues 1

Liebherr

11

Kato Works

2

Cargotec

12

Kobelco

3

Terex

13

Columbus McKinnon

4

XCMG

14

Palfinger

5

Zoomlion

15

Sennebogen

6

Konecranes

16

Link-Belt

7

Manitowoc

17

Hitachi-Sumitomo

8

ZPMC

18

Furukawa Unic

9

Tadano

19

Fuwa

10

Sany

20

Favelle Favco

Source: ICM 20, IC&ST November 2012

Manufacturers – 10-year revenue trend (US$ million) 35,000

Peak = US$ 31.7 billion

30,000

-25% drop in 2009 25,000

+6% - +8% growth since 20,000 15,000

Re-gain peak in 2014-15?

10,000

Chinese = 30% of total

5,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Europe

Asia

North America

Manufacturer revenues vs GDP 70%

6%

Revenues track GDP

60% 5% 50%

GDP changes -1% - +6% 4%

40% 30%

3%

Manufacturer revenues -25% - +65%

20% 2%

10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1%

-10% 0% -20% -30%

-1% ICM20 Change (left-hand scale)

GDP Change (right-hand scale)

2012 GDP indicates slower growth in crane revenues?

Manufacturer 10-year share price performance 16000

800

14000

700

12000

600

10000

500

8000

400

6000

300

4000

200

2000

100

0

0 DJIA (left axis)

IC Legacy Share Index (right axis)

Crane manufacturers:

+620% Jan 2003 - Jul 2007 (Dow = +43%) -79% Jul 2007 - Mar 2009 (Dow = -54%) +55% Mar 2009 – Oct 2012 (Dow = +105%)

Manufacturer summary  Revenues making steady recovery  Slowing GDP could impact revenue growth  Disappointing post-recovery share price performance  Profitability still weak

IC50 – World’s 50 largest crane owners  Annual study from IC&ST (June edition)  Companies ranked by total load moment of fleet (tonne-metres)  Divide by 3 for rough lifting capacity (tonnes)  Data includes:  Number of crawler & wheeled mobile cranes  Staff numbers  Depot numbers  Size of largest crane

Total fleet – Top 50 25000

Total fleet = 21,896 mobiles & crawlers 20000

Almost unchanged since 2008 15000

Continued growth in Europe

North America more cyclical

10000

5000

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 RoW

NAm

EUR

Total fleet – Link to GDP growth 6%

15%

5% 10%

GDP changes -1% - +6% Fleet changes -10% - +10%

4% 5%

3%

2%

0%

1% -5% 0% 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-1%

2012 -10%

Global GDP - SOURCE: IMF (left-hand scale) Global GDP + 2 years (left-hand scale) Change in Fleet Size (right-hand scale)

Fleet size follows GDP with 1-2 year time lag

Trigger for fleet growth could be as high as +4% to +5% GDP growth

Top 50 – wheeled mobile vs crawler 25000

Ratio of mobiles:crawlers 78:22 in 2012 20000

All cranes 2003  2012 16,470 21,896 (+33%)

15000

Mobile cranes 2003  2012 13,118  17,022 (+30%)

10000

5000

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Mobiles

Crawlers

Crawler cranes 2003  2012 3,352  4,874 (+45%)

Top 50 – total load moment 16,000,000

Change 2003 – 2012

14,000,000

Total 4.6 14.9 million tonne-metres (+225%)

12,000,000 10,000,000

~ 1.53  4.98 million tonnes lifting capacity

8,000,000 6,000,000

Per crane 279  682 tonne-metres

4,000,000

2,000,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

~ 93  227 tonnes lifting capacity

Regional differences Global top 50

Europeans

North Americans

Total cranes

21,896

8,746

9,118

Total load moment

14.9 million tonne metres

7.67 million tonne metres

4.33 million tonne metres

Load moment per crane

682 tonne metres

877 tonne metres

475 tonne metres

Total lift capacity

4.98 million tonnes

2.56 million tonnes

1.44 million tonnes

Lift capacity/crane

~227 tonnes

~292 tonnes

~158 tonnes

Mobiles:crawlers

78:22

83:17

78:22

Regional differences Global top 50

Europeans

North Americans

Employees

42,948

17,479

10,695

Cranes

21,896

8,746

9,118

Depots

969

520

249

Cranes/depot

22.6

16.8

36.6

Load moment per crane

682 tonne metres

877 tonne metres

475 tonne metres

Lift capacity/crane

~227 tonnes

~292 tonnes

~158 tonnes

Regional differences Europeans

North Americans

Strong preference for mobile wheeled cranes

More locations, fewer cranes at each

Fewer locations, many cranes at each

Prefer high capacity cranes ~292 tonnes average

Prefer lighter capacity cranes ~158 tonnes average

Crane owner summary  Fleet size of top 50 almost unchanged during recession  Need high GDP growth to drive fleet growth  Continued move to higher lifting capacities, even during recession  Trading-in lighter cranes for bigger models?  Strongest growth in crawler cranes, but still minority product

 Key regional differences/alternative business models

More information Unique study of the global industry

 72 pages  Manufacturer & owner analysis  Global & regional trends  Exploring links to economic trends  Discounts available at CICS