SCI/VERKEHR BERLIN 2014

RAIL TRANSPORT MARKETS – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS 2014–2023 Importance and Dynamism of the Worldwide Rail Transport Markets and Their Drivers

Extract from the Study

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 2

Extract from the Study

RAIL TRANSPORT MARKETS – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS 2014–2023 Importance and Dynamism of the Worldwide Rail Transport Markets and Their Drivers Through the MultiClient Study “Rail Transport Markets – Global Market Trends 2014-2023”, SCI Verkehr delivers core data of competitive relevance on the development of the worldwide rail performance. The study presents and assesses detailed information for 30 core markets and eight world regions. It also analyses the main drivers of transport performance and points to the latest trends, including historical data since 2000 and the prediction of market development up to 2023. Worldwide rail transport performance 2013-2023 [Index 100 = 2013] 160

140

120

100

80 2013

2014

2015

2016

Freight rail 100 = 10,711 billion tkm

2017

2018

2019

Passenger rail 100 = 3,536 billion pkm

2020

2021

2022

2023

Urban rail 100 = 448 billion pkm

Source: SCI Verkehr 2014, "Rail Transport Markets – Global Market Trends 2014-2023"

“Rail Transport Markets – Global Market Trends 2014-2023” includes information and explanation of the development in three segments: rail freight transport, passenger rail transport and urban rail transport. The worldwide passenger rail market will show a significant development in the long-term. Eastern Europe and CIS are likely to reverse a historical performance decline that remounts to the end of the Soviet Union. In the short-term, SCI Verkehr expects a slower growth in Asia and an acceleration of performance in Australia/Pacific. Urban rail is expected to show a dynamic growth in the long-term, highly influenced by new projects in China and India. Middle-East and South America will also grow rapidly in this segment. For rail freight transport, worldwide growth is forecasted until 2023. Main markets are expected to accelerate their development in the short term and overcome the stagnating tendency observed since 2012. In summary, the data provided by “Rail Transport Markets – Global Market Trends 2014-2023” is an excellent basis to build and review expectations over the rail market development considering geographic, segment type and time period particularities. The English version of the study “Rail Transport Markets – Global Market Trends 2014-2023” is available from August 2014 at the price of EUR 3,300 + VAT (PDF-version). Contact: SCI Verkehr GmbH Ann Kathrin Arntz Tel: +49 221 9317820 E-Mail: [email protected]

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 3

Figure 1:Worldwide rail transport performance 2013-2023

Extract from the Study

1

Executive Summary.............................................................................................. 14

1.1

Passenger rail transport ............................................................................................. 15

1.2

Urban rail transport .................................................................................................... 19

1.3

Rail freight transport ................................................................................................... 22

2

Methodology ........................................................................................................ 26

2.1

Objectives of the market analysis .............................................................................. 26

2.2

Definitions of the study ............................................................................................... 26

2.2.1

Transport performance ............................................................................................... 26

2.2.2

Passenger and urban rail ........................................................................................... 27

2.2.3

Freight rail ................................................................................................................... 28

2.2.4

Geographic delimitation ............................................................................................. 29

2.2.5

Period of analysis ....................................................................................................... 30

2.2.6

Volatility corridor ......................................................................................................... 31

3

Drivers of transport performance ........................................................................ 33

3.1

Calculation of the model ............................................................................................ 33

3.1.1

Production indexes..................................................................................................... 34

3.1.2

Income ........................................................................................................................ 34

3.1.3

Demography and urbanisation .................................................................................. 34

3.1.4

Rail infrastructure........................................................................................................ 35

4

Characteristics and transport development in the world markets ..................... 36

4.1

Western Europe.......................................................................................................... 36

4.1.1

Germany ..................................................................................................................... 44

4.1.2

France......................................................................................................................... 51

4.1.3

United Kingdom ......................................................................................................... 57

4.1.4

Italy ............................................................................................................................. 63

4.1.5

The Netherlands ......................................................................................................... 68

4.1.6

Austria......................................................................................................................... 74

4.1.7

Sweden....................................................................................................................... 79

4.1.8

Switzerland ................................................................................................................. 84

4.1.9

Spain .......................................................................................................................... 89

4.2

Eastern Europe........................................................................................................... 95

4.2.1

Poland ...................................................................................................................... 102

4.2.2

Romania ................................................................................................................... 108

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 4

Extract from the Study

4.2.3

Czech Republic ........................................................................................................ 114

4.2.4

Turkey ....................................................................................................................... 119

4.3

North America .......................................................................................................... 124

4.4.1

Canada ..................................................................................................................... 131

4.4.2

USA........................................................................................................................... 136

4.4.3

Mexico ...................................................................................................................... 141

4.5

South and Central America ...................................................................................... 146

4.5.1

Argentina .................................................................................................................. 153

4.5.2

Brazil ......................................................................................................................... 158

4.6

Asia ........................................................................................................................... 163

4.6.1

China ........................................................................................................................ 170

4.6.2

India .......................................................................................................................... 175

4.6.3

Japan ........................................................................................................................ 180

4.6.4

South Korea .............................................................................................................. 185

4.7

Australia/Pacific ........................................................................................................ 190

4.7.1

Australia .................................................................................................................... 196

4.8

CIS ............................................................................................................................ 201

4.8.1

Kazakhstan ............................................................................................................... 208

4.8.2

Russia ....................................................................................................................... 213

4.8.3

Ukraine ..................................................................................................................... 218

4.9

Africa/Middle East .................................................................................................... 223

4.10.1 Egypt ........................................................................................................................ 230 4.10.2 South Africa .............................................................................................................. 235 4.10.3 Iran............................................................................................................................ 239 4.10.4 Saudi Arabia ............................................................................................................. 245 5

Transport performance and growth rates in the world market regions ........... 287

6

Transport performance and growth rates in the 30 core markets .................... 289

7

Transport intensity of the 30 core markets in 2013 .......................................... 292

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 5

Extract from the Study

Extract from the Study 1

Executive Summary (excerpt)

(…) The global rail market has been growing significantly and almost continuously since the year 2000. Despite the world economic crisis in 2009, passenger rail performance has continued to grow and urban rail has registered only a slight decrease. Freight rail was the segment that suffered the strongest influence from the 2009 crisis. This is linked to the drastic reduction of goods production, which fundamentally determines the demand for rail freight services. Nevertheless, rail freight engaged in a rapid recovery as early as 2010, and by 2011 freight rail performance had already reached pre-crisis levels. Freight rail transport performance by world regions 2003-2023 billion tkm

billion tkm

billion tkm

6,000

6,000

6,000

4,000

4,000

4,000

billion tkm

6,000

+…% …

2,000

2,000 …

+…% +…% … …

0 2013

…

2023

billion tkm

…

+…% …

2013

2023

…

0 2003

Eastern Europe billion tkm

6,000

2,000

0 2003

4,000

+…%

0 2003

…

2,000 -…%

Western Europe

+…% …

2013

2023

North America billion tkm

6,000

6,000

4,000

4,000

+…%

…

…

2003

2013

…

2023

South and Central America billion tkm 6,000

+…% …

4,000

2,000

+…% …

2,000

2,000 … +…%

0

…

+…%

2013

Asia

2023

…

2,000

2013

2023

Australia and Pacific

+…%

+…%

0 2003

4,000

…

…

0 2003

+…% … +…%

…

…

…

2003

2013

2023

0 2003

2013

CIS

2023

Africa and Middle East

(…) Freight rail to grow in all world regions in the long term Freight rail is expected to grow in every world region in the long term. Between 2003 and 2013, only Eastern Europe registered a reduction of freight rail performance. In this period, it decreased …% from … billion tkm to … billion tkm. By 2023, however, freight rail performance is expected to increase … % in this region, reaching … billion tkm, slightly above … levels. Consolidation of the rail market and continuous economic growth will be the main contributors to this reversal. Top 5 freight rail markets consolidated The worldwide top 5 freight rail markets are consolidated and are not likely to suffer any position change in the long term. Despite different growth rates, the rank in 2023 will be the same as in 2013, with China (…%) in first place, followed by USA (…%), Russia (…%), India (…%) and Canada (…%). Together, they constitute …% of the worldwide freight rail performance.

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 6

Figure 2: Freight rail transport performance by world regions 2003-2023

4.4.1 Canada (excerpt)

4.4.1 Canada (excerpt) Profile 2014 Socio-economic data Population

35.5 million

Population growth up to 2018

4.0%

Degree of urbanisation

81%

GDP per capita (in PPP)

EUR 33,626

GDP (current prices)

EUR 1,430 billion

Development GDP (real) up to 2018

2.3% p.a.

Rail infrastructure Mainline railway network

… km

Degree of railway electrification

0%

Urban transport network Transport performance

… km

2013

2015

CAGR 13-15

Passenger rail

… billion pkm

… billion pkm

…%

Urban rail

… billion pkm

… billion pkm

…%

Freight rail

… billion tkm

… billion tkm

…%

Transport characteristics

Average transport distances

Transport intensity

… km

… km per capita

-

… km per capita

… km

… tkm per EUR 1,000 GDP

Passenger rail Urban rail Freight rail Modal split Modal split for passenger transport [2012, total ~ … billion pkm]

Modal split for freight transport [2012, total ~ … billion tkm]

Urban rail Railways Buses

Pipeline

Road

Coastwise vessels Inland waterways

Cars

Rail

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 7

4.4.1 Canada (excerpt)

Urban rail

Urban rail performance in Canada 2000-2023 [Index 100 = 2013] 190 170

150 130 110 90 100 = ... million pkm

70

Base case

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

50

Upside/downside corridor

Transport performance (billion pkm)

CAGR (%)

2000

2005

2013

2015

2018

2023

Short-term

Medium-term

Long-term

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

Development of transport performance There are metro systems in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, and light-rail systems in Edmonton, Calgary and Toronto. Urban rail ridership and transport performance have increased continuously since 2000 in Canada, influenced by the development of large cities and growing income. Between 2000 and 2013, urban rail performance grew 48%. The network expansion also positively influenced this development, especially with the expansion of Vancouver metro and Edmonton LRT. Canadian urban rail has good prospects for development. The positive trend observed since 2000 will continue to produce significant growth. Urban rail performance should reach … million pkm by 2023, an average growth of …% p.a. Main drivers Positive trends in income and urbanisation development are behind the growth of urban rail performance in Canada, but infrastructure expansion is the main driver accelerating this growth. Income is expected to grow 1.2% p.a. up to 2023 and will have an overall positive impact in the development of urban rail performance. A much higher impact is expected from the population development of large Canadian cities, which should gain 3.6 million new inhabitants by 2023. This represents an average growth of 1.8% p.a. and will increase demand for urban rail transport.

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 8

4.4.1 Canada (excerpt)

Most growth in urban rail performance will come, however, from infrastructure expansion. Over 60 km of new metro and 200 km of new LRT systems are expected to be built in Canada by 2023, which could almost double the current national urban rail network.

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 9

4.7 Australia/Pacific (excerpt)

4.7 Australia/Pacific (excerpt)

Passenger rail

Passenger rail performance in Australia and Pacific 2000-2023 [Index 100 = 2013] 140 130 120 110 100 100 = … billion pkm

90 80 70

Base case

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

60

Upside/downside corridor

Transport performance (billion pkm)

CAGR (%)

2000

2005

2013

2015

2018

2023

Shortterm

Mediumterm

Longterm

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

Share of short-distance rail:

…

Share of long-distance rail:

…

Share of high-speed rail:

-

Transport performance development Despite a share of only 2% in the region’s performance, passenger rail is the segment with the largest contribution from New Zealand. Four long-distance and two commuter rail services compose the passenger rail network in this country. Most of them are run by diesel locomotives, but since 2010 an electrification plan is being implemented. Most of the performance relies on the commuter services of Wellington and Auckland. Passenger rail development in Australia/Pacific is a reflection of the trends present in the Australian domestic market, which accounts for 98% of the region’s performance. The performance of this segment has been almost continuously increasing since 2000, following the expansion of commuter services and the demographic growth in Australia. SCI Verkehr expects passenger rail performance in Australia/Pacific to grow …% p.a. in the long term.

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 10

4.7 Australia/Pacific (excerpt)

Main drivers Demographic trends and infrastructure expansion are the main drivers of passenger rail performance in Australia/Pacific. Income is forecasted to grow 3.6% p.a. in the medium term, but it will have only a negative impact in passenger rail. Total population will grow 1.1% p.a. in Australia/Pacific up to 2018 and will increase demand for passenger rail services. Moreover, the urbanisation trend will reinforce this influence, since the vast majority of performance originates in commuter rail services. Urbanisation rate is predicted to grow 0.2% p.a. in the long term. Largest passenger rail markets in Australia/Pacific 2013 billion pkm 16.0

3.0%

15.2 2.8%

14.0

2.5%

12.0

2.2% 2.0%

10.0 8.0

1.5%

6.0

1.0%

4.0 0.5%

2.0

0.4

-

0.0% Australia Transport performance (billion pkm)

New Zealand CAGR 2013-18

Competitive dynamics Australia and New Zealand are economies characterised by their openness and high degree of liberalisation. In 1997, the Australian state railway (AN) was partly privatised. Rail passenger transport is currently performed by private and public operators. In New Zealand, railway privatisation was reversed in 2008 due to infrastructure pricing issues between the state-owned infrastructure manager and the former railway owner Toll Holdings, creating the state-owned KiwiRail.

SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • 11

Order form MC Transport Markets Please fax to: + 49 (221) 931 78-78 or mail to: [email protected] SCI Verkehr GmbH – Cologne Office FAO Ms. Ann Kathrin Arntz I would like to order the Multi Client Study “Rail Transport Markets – Global Market Trends 2014-2023” Quantity

Issue PDF Issue PDF + Print Issue

Language English English

Single price1 3,300 € 3,700 € Total price*

Total price1

Please ask for the prices for datasheets in other formats from the ordered MultiClient Study.

Company

Contact person (Title, first name, surname)

Position

Address (Street, town, postcode)

VAT Number (for customers in member states of the European Union)

or other invoicing address or order number

Tel

Fax

Email I would like to pay by prepayment  / I would like to pay by credit card2  / Invoice  For payment by credit card please use the online shop or ask Ms. Ruehmann [email protected] Orders subject to our general terms and conditions. Place of jurisdiction is Hamburg.

Date

1 2

Signature / stamp

All prices exclude delivery costs and VAT Additionally 5% credit card payment charges

© SCI Verkehr GmbH Schanzenstraße 117 20357 Hamburg / Germany Tel: +49 (0) 40 5071970 Fax: +49 (0) 40 50719720 www.sci.de

Cologne Office Vor den Siebenburgen 2 50676 Cologne Germany Tel: +49 (0) 221 931 78-0 Fax: +49 (0) 221 931 78-78

Place of jurisdiction: Country court Hamburg Geschäfts-Nr. 66 HR B 56 572 Deutsche Bank Hamburg Bank code: 200 700 24 Account number: 649 173 200

CLIENTS WE NAVIGATE WORDLWIDE q

Hamburg Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Schanzenstraße 117 20357 Hamburg Phone: 49 (0) 40 5071970 Fax: 49 (0) 40 50719720 Cologne Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Vor den Siebenburgen 2 50676 Köln Phone: 49 (0) 221 931780 Fax: 49 (0) 221 9317878 Berlin Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Köpenicker Strasse 48/49 Eingang G 10179 Berlin Tel.: 49 (0) 30 2844540 Fax: 49 (0) 30 28445420

E-Mail: [email protected] www.sci.de Imprint: © SCI Verkehr GmbH