US Economic Indicators: YRI Earned Income Proxy Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 13, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

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Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

YRI Earned Income Proxy

January 13, 2017 / YRI Earned Income Proxy

1-5

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

YRI Earned Income Proxy Figure 1. 34.9

34.9

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: TOTAL PRIVATE INDUSTRIES (hours, sa)

34.7

34.7

34.5

34.5

Dec

34.3

34.3

34.1

34.1

33.9

33.9

33.7

33.7 2007

4.3 4.2

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 4.3

AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS: TOTAL PRIVATE INDUSTRIES (billion hours)

Dec

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.6 2007

27 26

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 27

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: TOTAL PRIVATE INDUSTRIES ($/hour)

Dec

26

25

25

24

24

23

23

22

22

21

21

20

yardeni.com 2007

20 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 1 / January 13, 2017 / YRI Earned Income Proxy

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

YRI Earned Income Proxy Figure 2. 5.8

5.6

7.2

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & PRIVATE WAGES & SALARIES IN PERSONAL INCOME

Dec 7.0

(trillion dollars, saar)

6.8 5.4

6.6

YRI Earned Income Proxy*

6.4

5.2

Private Wages & Salaries 6.2 5.0 6.0 4.8

5.8 5.6

4.6

5.4 4.4 5.2 yardeni.com

4.2 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

5.0

2018

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 3. 5800 5700

5700

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES

Dec

(billion dollars, saar)

5600

5600

5500

5500

5400 5300

YRI Earned Income Proxy*

5400

5200

5300

5100

Retail Sales

5200

5000

5100

4900

5000

4800 4900

4700

4800

4600

4700

4500

4600

4400

4500

4300

4400

4200

4300

4100

4200

4000 yardeni.com

4100 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

3900

2017

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Page 2 / January 13, 2017 / YRI Earned Income Proxy

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

YRI Earned Income Proxy Figure 4. 10 8

10

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY vs. PRIVATE WAGES & SALARIES IN PERSONAL INCOME (yearly percent change)

8

6

6 Dec

4

4

2

2

0

0

YRI Earned Income Proxy* (4.0)

-2

-2

Private Wages & Salaries (3.6) -4

-4

-6

-6

-8

-8 yardeni.com

-10 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-10

2017

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 5. 14 12

14

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES (yearly percent change)

12

YRI Earned Income Proxy* (4.0)

10

10

Retail Sales (4.1)

8

8

6

6 Dec

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6

-8

-8

-10 -12

-10 yardeni.com 2007

-12 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Page 3 / January 13, 2017 / YRI Earned Income Proxy

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

YRI Earned Income Proxy Figure 6. 5.8 5.7

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE

5.6

(trillion dollars, saar)

5.2 Dec

5.1 5.0

5.5

4.9

YRI Earned Income Proxy* (5.7)

5.4

4.8

5.3

4.7

Retail Sales ex Gasoline (5.2)

5.2

4.6

5.1

4.5

5.0

4.4

4.9

4.3

4.8

4.2

4.7

4.1

4.6

4.0

4.5

3.9

4.4

3.8

4.3

3.7

4.2

3.6 yardeni.com

4.1 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

3.5

2018

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of the Census.

Figure 7. 5.8 5.7

3.1

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & CORE RETAIL SALES

Dec

(trillion dollars, saar)

5.6

3.0

5.5 5.4

YRI Earned Income Proxy*

2.9

Retail Sales Ex Gasoline, Autos, Building Materials, & Food Services

2.8

5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 2.7 4.9 4.8 2.6

4.7 4.6

2.5

4.5 4.4

2.4

4.3 4.2 4.1

yardeni.com 2007

2.3 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Page 4 / January 13, 2017 / YRI Earned Income Proxy

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

YRI Earned Income Proxy Figure 8. 10 8

10

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE (yearly percent change)

8

6

6 Dec

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

YRI Earned Income Proxy* (4.0) -4

-4

Retail Sales ex Gasoline (4.0)

-6

-6

-8

-8 yardeni.com

-10 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-10

2017

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Figure 9. 10

10

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES (yearly percent change)

5 Dec 5

0

0

YRI Earned Income Proxy* Retail Sales Ex Gasoline, Autos, & Building Materials

-5

-10

yardeni.com 2007

-5 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Page 5 / January 13, 2017 / YRI Earned Income Proxy

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

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