US Economic Indicators: Unemployment Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 6, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]

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Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Unemployment Rates Unemployed

January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

1-2 3-8

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Unemployment Rates Figure 1. 12 10

12

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (percent)

10

Total

8

8

6

6 Dec

4

4

2

2 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

10

10

Adult

8

8

6

6 Dec

4

2

4

2 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

30

30

27

27

Teenage

24

24

21

21

18

18 Dec

15 12

15 12

9

9 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

Bachelor Degree & Higher

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0 Dec

2.5 2.0

2.0

1.5 1.0

2.5

1.5 yardeni.com

1.0

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Soure: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 1 / January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

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Unemployment Rates Figure 2. 20 18 16 14

20

SPECIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (percent, sa)

18 16

Underemployment Rate* Plus Unemployment Rate

14

U-6 Rate** 12

12

10

10 Dec

8 6

8 6

4

4 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

8

8

EMPLOYED PART-TIME FOR ECONOMIC REASONS (as percent of civilian labor force) 6

Total

6

Slack Business Conditions

4

Can Only Find Part-Time Work

4 Dec

2

2

0

0 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

12

10

8

12

10

Official Unemployment Rate U-4 Rate***

8

6

6 Dec

4

4

2

2 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. *Total number of people working part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force. **Unemployed plus marginally attached plus part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force. ***Unemployed plus discouraged workers as percent of civilian labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 2 / January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

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Unemployed Figure 3. 16

14

16

UNEMPLOYED & UNDER-EMPLOYED (millions, sa)

14

Unemployed (7.5) Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons (5.6)

12

12

10

10

8

Dec

8

6

6

4

4

2

2 yardeni.com

0

0

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Note: Shaded area denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 4. 10

10

EMPLOYED PART-TIME FOR ECONOMIC REASONS (millions, sa) Total

8

8

Slack Business Conditions Can Only Find Part-Time Work 6

6

4

4 Dec

2

0

2

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0

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Note: Shaded area denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 3 / January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

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Unemployed Figure 5. 16

16

UNEMPLOYED: TOTAL, SHORT-TERM, & LONG-TERM (millions, sa)

Total (7.5)

12

12

Short-Term* (5.7) Long-Term** (1.8)

8

Dec

4

8

4

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0

0

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * Unemployed for less than 27 weeks. ** Unemployed for 27 weeks and longer. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 6. 14

14

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: TOTAL, SHORT-TERM, & LONG-TERM (percent) 12

12

Total (4.7) Short-Term* (3.6)

10

10

Long-Term** (1.1)

8

8

6

6 Dec

4

4

2

2

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0

0

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * Unemployed for less than 27 weeks. ** Unemployed for 27 weeks and longer. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 4 / January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

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Unemployed Figure 7. 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17

45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17

AVERAGE & MEAN DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT (weeks, sa)

Average (26.0) Median (10.3)

15 13 11 9 7 5 3

Dec

yardeni.com 68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

15 13 11 9 7 5 3

20

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 8. 3.0 2.8

3.0

MARGINALLY ATTACHED TO THE LABOR FORCE & DISCOURAGED WORKERS (millions, nsa)

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

Marginally Attached To The Labor Force*(1.7)

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8 Dec

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

.8

.8

Discouraged Workers**(0.4)

.6

.6

.4

.4

.2 .0

.2 yardeni.com 94

95

96

.0 97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

* Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. ** Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 5 / January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

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Unemployed Figure 9. 25

25

UNEMPLOYMENT (millions)

Unemployment

20

20

Unemployment at Labor Force Participation Rates of 63%, 65%, & 67%

x67

15

15 x65

10

10 x63

5

5

0

0

yardeni.com

-5

-5

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * Labor force participation rate times working-age population minus household employment. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 10. 20

20

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (percent, sa)

Official Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate at Labor Force Participation Rates of 63%, 65%, and 67%*

15

15

x67 10

10 x65

x63

5

5

0

-5

0

yardeni.com

-5

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 * Labor force participation rate times working-age population minus household employment all divided by adjusted labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 6 / January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

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Unemployed Figure 11. 18.5 17.5

18.5

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (percent)

17.5

16.5

16.5

15.5

15.5

14.5

14.5

13.5

13.5

Unemployment Rate (4.7)

12.5

12.5

U-6 Unemployment Rate* (9.2)

11.5

11.5

10.5

10.5

9.5

9.5

Dec

8.5

8.5

7.5

7.5

6.5

6.5

5.5

5.5 Dec

4.5 3.5

4.5

yardeni.com 94

95

96

3.5 97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

* Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 12. 11.5

11.5

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1980-1990 vs. 2007-PRESENT

11.0

10.5

10.5

10.0

10.0

9.5

9.5

9.0

9.0

8.5

8.5

yardeni.com

11.0

8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5

7.0

6.0

2007-Present

5.5

5.5

5.0

4.0

7.5

6.5

1980-1990

6.0

4.5

8.0

5.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

4.5 4.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 7 / January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

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Unemployed

Page 8 / January 6, 2017 / US Economic Indicators: Unemployment

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