US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 17, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Initial Employment Claims Continuing Employment Claims ADP Private Payrolls: Total & Sectors ADP Private Payrolls: Company Size ADP Private Payrolls: Services ADP Private Payrolls: Goods Challenger Report NFIB Employment Regional Employment Surveys Hirings, Separations & Job Openings Hirings, Separations & Payroll Employment

January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

3-4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Initial Employment Claims Figure 1. 800

800

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa)

750

750

700

700

Weekly (247.0)

650

650

600

600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300 1/7

250

250

200

200 yardeni.com

150 73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

150

21

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor.

Figure 2. 800

800

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa)

750

750

700

700

650

650

4-Week Average (256.5)

600

600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300 1/7

250

250

200 150

200 yardeni.com 73

75

77

150 79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor.

Page 3 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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Initial Employment Claims Figure 3. 750

12

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 700

Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week ma, thousands, sa)

650 600

10

Unemployment Rate (percent)

550 8 500 450 6 400 Dec

350

4

300 1/7

250

yardeni.com

200 73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

2

21

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor and The Conference Board.

Figure 4. 750

70

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS vs. JOBS HARD TO GET 700 60 650

Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week ma, thousands, sa)

600

50

550 40

500 450

30

400 Dec 20

350 300

Jobs Hard to Get (percent saying so)

250

10 1/7 yardeni.com

200 73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

0

21

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor and The Conference Board.

Page 4 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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Continuing Employment Claims Figure 5. 11

11

CONTINUING CLAIMS & EXTENDED BENEFITS (millions)

10

10

9

9

8

8

Continuing (2.1) 7

7

Continuing+ Extended* (2.1)

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3 12/24

2

2

yardeni.com

1 73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

1

21

* Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 6. 17

17

CONTINUING CLAIMS & EXTENDED BENEFITS (millions)

16 15 14

Number of Unemployed

13 12

16 15

Continuing Claims

14

Continuing+ Extended*

13 12

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

Dec

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3 12/31

2

2

1

1 yardeni.com

0 73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

0

21

* Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 5 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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ADP Private Payrolls: Total & Sectors Figure 7. 124 121

ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

500

(monthly change, thousands, sa)

Dec

300

(millions, sa)

152.0

118

-100

Total

115

100

Total

-300

112

-500

109

-700

106

-900 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18 350

105 Dec

103

250 168.0

101

ServiceProviding

99 97

150 50 -50

95 93

-150

Service-Providing

-250

91 89

-350

87

-450

85

-550 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

24

100 50 0

-16.0

22

-50

GoodsProducing

20

-100

Goods-Producing

Dec

-150 -200 -250

18

-300 yardeni.com

16 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

-350 -400

18

15

100

14

0

-10.0

Manufacturing

13

Manufacturing

-100

Dec

12

-200 yardeni.com

11 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

-300

18

Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics and Haver Analytics.

Page 6 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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ADP Private Payrolls: Company Size Figure 8. 52

ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

200

(monthly change, thousands, sa)

150

(millions, sa) 50

100

Dec

Small Companies (1-49 Employees)

50 18.0

48

0

Small Companies (1-49 Employees)

-50 -100

46

-150 -200

44

-250 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

48

200

Medium Companies (50-499 Employees)

71.0

Dec

46

0

44

-200

Medium Companies (50-499 Employees)

42

-400

40

-600 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

28

200

27

Dec

100 63.0

Large Companies (over 500 Employees)

26

0 25 -100 24

Large Companies (over 500 Employees) -200

23 yardeni.com

22 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

-300

18

Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics and Haver Analytics.

Page 7 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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ADP Private Payrolls: Services Figure 9. 46 45 44

ADP NONFARM PRIVATE SERVICE PROVIDING PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (millions, sa)

43

180

(monthly change, thousands, sa)

140

Small Companies (1-49 Employees)

100

Dec

60 34.0

42

20

41 -20 40

Small Companies (1-49 Employees)

39

-60

38

-100

37

-140

36

-180 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

40

150

Medium Companies (50-499 Employees)

39

Dec

100 62.0

38

50

37

0

36

-50

Medium Companies (50-499 Employees)

35

-100

34

-150

33

-200

32

-250

31

-300 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

22

200

Large Companies (over 500 Employees)

21

Dec 100 72.0

20 0 19

Large Companies (over 500 Employees)

18

yardeni.com

17 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

-100

-200

18

Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics and Haver Analytics.

Page 8 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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ADP Private Payrolls: Goods Figure 10. 8.5

8.0

ADP NONFARM PRIVATE GOODS-PRODUCING PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

75

(monthly change, thousands, sa)

50

(millions, sa)

25

Small Companies (1-49 Employees)

7.5

0 -16.0 7.0

-25

Small Companies (1-49 Employees)

6.5

-50

Dec -75

6.0 -100 5.5

-125 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

9.0

50 25

Medium Companies (50-499 Employees)

8.5

8.0

0 -25

8.0 -50

Medium Companies (50-499 Employees) 7.5

-75

Dec

-100 -125

7.0

-150 6.5

-175 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

7.0

50

Large Companies (over 500 Employees)

6.5

0

-9.0

6.0

-50

Large Companies (over 500 Employees)

Dec 5.5

-100

yardeni.com

5.0 05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

-150

18

Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.

Page 9 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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Challenger Report Figure 11. 350 300

CHALLENGER REPORT: ANNOUNCED JOB CUTS TOTAL

250

(number, thousands, 3-ma)

200

60 50 40

Total

150

Services*

30 20

100 50

10

Dec

Dec

0

0 93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

* Includes E-Commerce, Education, Health Care, Media, Diversified Services, and Transportation. 80 60

40

Manufacturing Durables*

Retail, Entertainment/Leisure 30

40

20

20

10 Dec

Dec

0

0 93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

* Includes Aerospace/Defense, Automotive, Computer, Electronics, and Industrial Goods. 40

60 50

30 40

Manufacturing Nondurables*

20

Financial, Insurance, & Real Estate

30 20

10

Dec

10

0 93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

Dec 17 19

0

* Includes Apparel, Chemical, Commodities, Consumer Goods, Energy, Food, and Pharmaceutical. 5

40

4

Telecom & Utilities

yardeni.com

Construction

3 2 1

Dec

-1 93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

20 10

Dec

0

30

19

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

0 19

Source: Challenger, Gray, & Christmas Inc.

Page 10 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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NFIB Employment Figure 12. 39

39

NFIB: PERCENT OF FIRMS WITH ONE OR MORE JOB OPENINGS

36

36

33

33

30

30

Dec

27

27

24

24

21

21

12-MA

18

18

Monthly 15

15

12

12

9

9

6

yardeni.com 90

91

92

6 93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Source: National Federation of Small Business.

Figure 13. 24

24

NFIB: PERCENT OF FIRMS EXPECTING TO INCREASE EMPLOYMENT

20

20 Dec

16

16

12

12

8

8

12-MA 4

4

Monthly

0

0

-4

-4

-8

-8 yardeni.com

-12 90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

-12

19

Source: National Federation of Small Business.

Page 11 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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NFIB Employment Figure 14. 18

1.5

NFIB & ADP EMPLOYMENT

16 1.0

14 Dec Dec

12

.5

10 8

.0 6 4 -.5

NFIB: Percent of Firms Expecting to Increase Employment (12-month average)

2 0

-1.0

-2

ADP Nonfarm Private Small Payroll Employment (yearly change, millions)

-4

-1.5

-6 yardeni.com

-8 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-2.0

2018

Source: National Federation of Small Business and ADP/Macroeconomic Advisers.

Figure 15. 30

2000

NFIB & ADP EMPLOYMENT Dec

28 26

1000

24 Dec 22 20

0 18

NFIB: Percent of Firms With One or More Job Openings (12-ma)

16 14

-1000

ADP Nonfarm Private Small Payroll Employment (yearly change, thousands)

12 10

yardeni.com

8 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-2000

2018

Source: National Federation of Small Business and ADP/Macroeconomic Advisers.

Page 12 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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Regional Employment Surveys Figure 16. 70

70

US PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: EMPLOYMENT

60

60

Dec 50

50

40

40

Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing 30

30

yardeni.com

20 1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

20

2018

Source: Institute for Supply Management.

Figure 17. 40

40

REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT MANUFACTURING INDEXES

20

20

Dec

0

0

Dec

-20

-20

New York & Philadelphia (Dec=-4.3)

New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas ( (Dec=-0.5)

New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City (Dec=0.5)

-40

New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Kansas City (Dec=-0.4)

yardeni.com

-60 2004

2005

2006

2007

-40

New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (Dec=-1.1)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-60

2017

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Dallas.

Page 13 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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Regional Employment Surveys Figure 18. 80

CHICAGO*

40

PHILADELPHIA**

70

20

60

Dec

0

Dec

50

-20 40

Employment

Employment -40

30 20 80

-60 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

CLEVELAND*

DETROIT ISM

90

60

80

Employment

40

Employment

70 Dec

Aug

20

60

0

50

-20

40

-40

30

-60

20 04

20

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 40

RICHMOND FED

KANSAS CITY**

10 20 0

Dec

-10

Dec 0

-20 -30 -40

yardeni.com

-40 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

40

Employment

-20

# of Employees

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics.

DALLAS FED

20 0

Dec

-20 -40

Employment yardeni.com

-60

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 * Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 14 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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Hirings, Separations & Job Openings Figure 19. 5.9

5.9

NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS (millions, sa)

5.6

5.6

5.3

5.3

Nov Nov

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.4

Total Hires (5.22) Total Separations (5.03)

4.1

4.1

3.8

3.8

3.5

yardeni.com 2002

2003

3.5 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 20. 68 66

68

NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS (12-month sum, millions)

66

64

64 Nov

62

62

60

60

58

58

56

56

Total Hires (62.7) 54

54

Total Separations (60.3)

52

52

50

50

48

48

46 44

46 yardeni.com 2002

2003

44 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 15 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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Hirings, Separations & Job Openings Figure 21. 6.0 5.5

6.0

TOTAL JOB OPENINGS (millions, sa)

Nov

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0 2001

7

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 7

TOTAL UNEMPLOYED AS RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2 Nov

1

1 2001

4.5

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 4.5

TOTAL JOB OPENINGS AS PERCENT OF PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

4.0

4.0 Nov

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

yardeni.com 2001

2002

1.5 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 16 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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Hirings, Separations & Payroll Employment Figure 22. 700 600

700

NEW HIRES MINUS SEPARATIONS & NONFARM PAYROLLS (monthly change, thousands, sa)

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0

0

-100

-100

-200

-200

-300

-300

Total Hirings Minus Separations (Nov=191.0)

-400

-400

Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec=156.0)

-500

-500

-600

-600

-700

-700

-800

-800 yardeni.com

-900 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-900

2017

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 23. 75

75

ISM NONMANUFACTURING PMI & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT DIFFUSION INDEX

70

70

65

65

60

60 Dec

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

ISM Nonmanufacturing Employment (sa) (53.8)

30 25

30 25

Payroll Employment Diffusion Index* One-Month Span (57.1)

20

20

15 10

15 yardeni.com 2004

2005

10 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

* Percent of industries reporting higher payrolls. Source: Institute of Supply Management and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 17 / January 17, 2017 / US Economic Briefing: Employment Indicators

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