US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 20, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

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Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. Conference Board ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. S&P 500 Index ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. FSMI

January 20, 2017 / Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators

1 2 3

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ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. Conference Board Figure 1. 150

150

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

1/13

130

130 Nov

ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=100, 4-wa)

110

110

90

90

Conference Board LEI (2004=100) 70

70

50

50

30

yardeni.com 73

75

77

30 79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Figure 2. 150

150

LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

1/13

140

140

130

130

ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=100, 4-wa)

120

120 Nov

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80

Conference Board CEI (2004=100)

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

yardeni.com 73

75

77

40 79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Page 1 / January 20, 2017 / Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators

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ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. S&P 500 Index Figure 3. 150

2400

ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & S&P 500

1/19 1/13

2200

145

2000

140

1800 135 1600 130 1400 125 1200

115

800

ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=100)

600 400

120

S&P 500

1000

110

yardeni.com

105

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Figure 4. -200 0

155

ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale)

150

200 1/19

400

145 140

600 135

800 1000

130

1200

125

1400 120

High-Yield Corporate Spread*

1600 1800

ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=100)

2000 2200

115

yardeni.com

110 105

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Page 2 / January 20, 2017 / Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators

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ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. FSMI Figure 5. 180

150

YRI vs. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX

160

145

12/31

YRI Weekly Leading Index*

140

ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=100)

135 140

130 125

120

120 115

100

110 105 yardeni.com

80 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

100

2018

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Figure 6. -200 0

180

YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale)

12/31

200

160

400 600

140

800 1000

120

1200

High Yield Corporate Spread*

1400 1600

100

1800

80

YRI Weekly Leading Index**

2000 2200

yardeni.com 1998

2000

60 2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield. ** Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

Page 3 / January 20, 2017 / Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators

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