US Economic Indicators: M-PMI & NM-PMI Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 5, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

ISM Manufacturing ISM Nonmanufacturing US Purchasing Managers Indexes

June 5, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: M-PMI & NM-PMI

1 2 3-6

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

ISM Manufacturing Figure 1. 70 60

60

ISM MANUFACTURING (sa)

May

May

50

50 40 40

Composite (58.7)

Inventories (50.2)

30

30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

80

70

70 60

May

60

May

50

50

40 30

New Orders (63.7)

40

New Exports (55.6)

20

30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

80 70 May

May

60 50 40 30

Production (61.5)

Imports (54.1)

20 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

70

70 May

60

May

50

60 50

40 30

65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25

40

Backlog of Orders (nsa) (63.5)

Employment (56.3)

20 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

30 20

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

70

100 May

May

60

80 60 40

50

Prices (nsa) (79.5)

Supplier Deliveries (62.0)

20

40

0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Institute of Supply Management.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Page 1 / June 5, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: M-PMI & NM-PMI

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

ISM Nonmanufacturing Figure 2. 70 60

65

ISM NONMANUFACTURING (sa)

May

May

60 55

50

50 45

40

Composite (58.6)

Inventories (nsa)(57.5)

40

30

35 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

70

70 May

60

May

50 40

50

Business Activity (Production) (61.3)

40

New Exports (nsa) (57.5)

30

30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

70 May

60

May

50 40

60

New Orders (60.5)

Imports (nsa) (54.0)

30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

70

70 May

60

60

May 50 40

50

Backlog of Orders (nsa) (60.5)

Employment (sa) (54.1)

40

30

30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

65

90

60

80

May

55

May

50 45 40

Supplier Deliveries (nsa) (58.5) 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

70 60 50

Prices (64.3)

40

yardeni.com

30

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Source: Institute of Supply Management.

Page 2 / June 5, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: M-PMI & NM-PMI

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

US Purchasing Managers Indexes Figure 3. 75 70

75

US MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES (sa)

70

65

May

65

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

Total (58.7) Production (61.5) Employment (56.3) New Orders (63.7)

35 30

35 30

25

25 yardeni.com

20

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Institute of Supply Management.

Figure 4. 70

70

US NONMANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY (sa)

May 60

60

50

50

Total (58.6) Production (61.3) Employment (54.1) New Orders (60.5)

40

40

yardeni.com

30

30

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Institute for Supply Management.

Page 3 / June 5, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: M-PMI & NM-PMI

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

US Purchasing Managers Indexes Figure 5. 65

65

US PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES (sa)

60

60 May

55

55

50

50

45

45

Manufacturing (58.7) Nonmanufacturing (58.6) Average of Manufacturing & Nonmanufacturing (58.7)

40

35

40

35

yardeni.com

30

30

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Institute of Supply Management.

Figure 6. 75 70

75

US PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES (sa)

70

65

65 May

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40 35 30

Average of Manufacturing & Nonmanufacturing

40

New Orders (62.1) Production (61.4) Employment (55.2)

35 30 yardeni.com

25

25

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Institute of Supply Management.

Page 4 / June 5, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: M-PMI & NM-PMI

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

US Purchasing Managers Indexes Figure 7. 75 70

75

US PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: PRODUCTION (sa)

70

65

65 May

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

Manufacturing (61.5)

40

40

Nonmanufacturing (61.3) 35

35

Average of Manufacturing & Nonmanufacturing (61.4)

30

30 yardeni.com

25

25

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Institute of Supply Management.

Figure 8. 75 70

75

US PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: NEW ORDERS (sa)

70

65

May

65

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35 30

Manufacturing (63.7)

35

Nonmanufacturing (60.5) Average of Manufacturing & Nonmanufacturing (62.1)

30

25

25 yardeni.com

20

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Institute of Supply Management.

Page 5 / June 5, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: M-PMI & NM-PMI

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

US Purchasing Managers Indexes Figure 9. 70 65

70

US PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: EMPLOYMENT (sa)

65

60

60 May

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35

Manufacturing (56.3)

35

Nonmanufacturing (54.1) 30

30

Average of Manufacturing & Nonmanufacturing (55.2)

25

25 yardeni.com

20

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Institute of Supply Management.

Page 6 / June 5, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: M-PMI & NM-PMI

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on http://blog.yardeni.com www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, http://blog.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. [email protected]