Volume XXXII - Number 1 March 2016
ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR GREATER CHEYENNE
Wyoming Center for Business & Economic Analysis @ LCCC 1400 East College Drive Cheyenne, WY 82007 307-778-1151 wyomingeconomicdata.com
Annual Trends Edition
Economic Indicators for Greater Cheyenne
Annual Trends Edition Wyoming Center for Business and Economic Analysis @ LCCC Volume XXXII, Issue I March 2016
Table of Contents Economic Indicators Summary .................................................. 1 Business Trends ......................................................................... 3 Cheyenne/Laramie County Profile ............................................. 5 Laramie County Retail Sales by Sub Sectors .............................. 7 Laramie County Sales and Use Tax Receipts .............................. 8 Figure 1. Sales and Use Taxes, Total Tax Distributions to Local Government Entities .................................................... 9 Laramie County Lodging Tax Receipts and Total Taxable Sales ................................................................. 10 Growth Rates ........................................................................... 11 Figure 2 – Population vs Employment Growth Rates ............... 12 Figure 3 – Wages, Personal Income and Real GDP .................. 12 Laramie County Gross Domestic Product ................................. 13 Cheyenne Electric Power Sales ................................................ 14 Figure 4 – Commercial Electric Power Sales ............................ 15 Cheyenne Gas Consumption .................................................... 16 Cheyenne Utility Hookups ....................................................... 17 Laramie County Auto Registrations (Titles) ............................. 18 Laramie County Enplanements ................................................ 19 Tourism Activity ....................................................................... 20 Oil Production and Prices ......................................................... 21 Employment Trends ................................................................ 22 Labor Force Averages ............................................................... 24 Figure 5 – Unemployment Rates ............................................. 25 Laramie County Employment (BEA) ......................................... 26 Current Employment Statistics ................................................ 27 Laramie County Employers ...................................................... 28 Laramie County Proprietors ..................................................... 29 Figure 6 – Average Proprietor Income vs Average Annual Wages .......................................................... 30 Laramie County Employment Projections ............................... 31 Major Employers in the Cheyenne Area .................................. 32 Firms by Size and Industry ....................................................... 33 Wages, Earnings and Income Trends ...................................... 34 2014 Household Income .......................................................... 36 Median Household Income ...................................................... 36 2014 Earnings by Gender .......................................................... 36 Average Wage and Compensation per Job ............................... 36 Figure 7 – Average Wage & Compensation per Job ................. 37 Laramie County Average Annual Earned Income ..................... 38 Per Capita Personal Income ...................................................... 39 Figure 8 – Per Capita Personal Income ..................................... 40
Laramie County Personal Income and Earnings by Industry (BEA) ...................................................... 41 Figure 9 – Personal Income ...................................................... 42 Laramie County Total Payroll .................................................... 43 Demographic Trends ............................................................... 44 Census Detail ............................................................................ 46 Population Estimates and Projections ...................................... 47 Figure 10 – Population Estimates and Projections ................... 48 Laramie County Population and Income Profiles ..................... 49 Population by Race and Ethnic Groups..................................... 50 Population by Age and Gender ................................................. 50 Migration Data .......................................................................... 51 Commuters in and out of Laramie County ............................... 52 Figure 11 – Earnings by Commuters ......................................... 53 Figure 12 – Net Residential Adjustment as a % of TPI .............. 54 Commuter Income Flows .......................................................... 55 Laramie County Education Profiles ........................................... 56 Public and Private School Enrollment ....................................... 57 Figure 13 – Public School and College Enrollment ................... 58 Housing Trends ........................................................................ 59 Annual Core Logic Residential Market Data ............................. 61 Residential for Sale, Sold & Price .............................................. 62 Cheyenne Housing Rental Rates ............................................... 63 Housing Profile – Laramie County ............................................ 64 Figure 14 – New Residential Housing Units .............................. 65 Housing Profile – Cheyenne Area ............................................. 66 Households by Unit Type .......................................................... 66 Building Permits ........................................................................ 67 Residential Construction Activity .............................................. 68 Historic Housing Occupancy ..................................................... 69 Vacancy Rates ........................................................................... 70 Development Trends ............................................................... 71 Annexation Trends .................................................................... 73 Commercial Construction Activity ............................................ 74 Figure 15 – Residential and Commercial Construction Valuation ........................................................... 75 New Commercial/Industrial Construction ................................ 76 Commercial Property ................................................................ 77 Assessed Real and Personal Property Value ............................. 78 Figure 16 – Assessed Real & Personal Property Values ............ 79 Major Property Tax Districts ..................................................... 80 Figure 17 – Major Property Tax Districts .................................. 81
Communications WCBEA Phone: 307.778.1151 Wyoming Center for Business and Economic Analysis @ LCCC 1400 E College Drive, Cheyenne, WY 82007
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Editor ............................................................................................................................................... Denise Rogers Research Assistance ............................................................................................................................. Jo McGuire Editorial Assistance .............................................................................................................................. R.T. O’Gara Cover Design ............................................................................................................................... Cheyenne LEADS
Preface The articles appearing in this publication represent the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of funding agencies and organizations. Duplication or quotation of material in this publication is welcomed; we request that you credit WCBEA @LCCC. This publication and past publications are available in PDF format on our website: www.wyomingeconomicdata.com. Sign up for our monthly e‐newsletter announcing publication releases at www.wyomingeconomicdata.com or send us an email at
[email protected]. WCBEA @ LCCC sincerely appreciates past and continuing cooperation of the entities listed in our data sources throughout the report. This report would not be possible without the financial support of the Cheyenne‐Laramie County Economic Development Joint Powers Board and Cheyenne LEADS.
Economic Indicators wages and salaries. These numbers demonstrated the continued importance of the public sector to the local economy and its fundamental source of local economic stability.
Summary The Annual Trends report summarizes and illustrates the characteristics of the Cheyenne and Laramie County economy over the last ten years or longer. This report presents the latest available federal, state, and local agency statistics on Laramie County’s economic and demographic growth patterns. Both business and government planning require a realistic and unbiased assessment of past trends and future directions. The indicators and statistics presented in this report are intended to be used as a guide to understanding the local economy.
There was an increase in the unemployment rate in the State of Wyoming in the last quarter of 2015 – from 4.0 in October 2015, to 4.1 in November 2015, to 4.3 percent (a preliminary estimate) in December. Unemployment in Laramie County rose also, but remained below the state unemployment rate. During the same time period the unemployment rate in Laramie County rose from 3.5 to 3.8 to 4.0 percent. Unlike previous economic downturns, this time around Laramie County has oil and gas activity within its borders. This new activity has been an important and diversifying addition to the Laramie County economy and, while the sector is relatively small in terms of employment, the decline in this sector has affected the city and county financially as tax distributions to local government entities have declined slightly. This reflects, at least in part, a decrease in the tax collections in those sectors related to the energy industry.
2015 in Review Over the last year the impact of declining energy prices has been felt all across the State of Wyoming. As of this writing, the Wyoming Legislature is winding down its budget session with cuts in most areas. The Greater Cheyenne economy was not unaffected by the decline in energy prices and the resultant economic downturn in the State of Wyoming. As the economic measures and indicators in this report will show, not all sectors have been equally affected; some sectors have been negatively affected while others have remained resilient. In the coming months we expect to see an increase in local negative impacts as the state’s energy sector decline continues.
However, even as total tax distributions have declined, retail sales have increased. Retail sales grew to an estimated $1.3 billion dollars in 2015, an annual increase of 5.1 percent. This growth rate was down compared to the last two years. In 2014 retail sales grew by 5.9 percent and in 2013 that increase was 7.1 percent. Consumers spent more in 2015 and retail sales were up in a variety of subsectors including: auto dealers and auto parts, home furniture and furnishings, and eating and drinking places.
Laramie County had modest job growth from 2014 and 2015, an increase of between 591 and 650 jobs (1.3 to 1.4 percent). Government remained the primary employer in Laramie County, with 17,438 (26.1 percent) of all jobs and 36.4 percent of all covered employment
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Economic Indicators
After a disappointing 2014, the housing market in Laramie County picked up in 2015. Home sales were up from 2,638 in 2014 to 2,756 in 2015, a 4.5 percent increase. The average selling price for all homes (new and resales) rose from $225,540 in 2014 to $231,350 in 2015; a modest 2.6 percent increase. In positive news for the future, residential building permits rose for both single family and multi‐family residential construction. In 2015, 370 total (city and county) single family permits were issued and seventeen multi‐family building permits were issued in Cheyenne.
These indicators demonstrated a continuation of the historical pattern: Laramie County’s economy fluctuates with the economy of the State of Wyoming, but is not as volatile. Fluctuations in the level of local economic activity are less pronounced than for the state. The following six sections of the Annual Economic Trends report provide comprehensive data on business, employment, wages and income, demographics, housing and development trends for Greater Cheyenne.
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Business Trends The Business Trends section contains primary business data sets designed to measure overall economic performance in the Greater Cheyenne economy.
Business Trends Tables and Figures Table 1.0 Table 1.1 Table 1.2 Figure 1 Table 1.3 Table 1.4 Figure 2 Figure 3 Table 1.5 Table 1.6 Figure 4
Cheyenne/Laramie County Profile Laramie County Retail Sales By Sub Sectors (2010‐2015) Laramie County Sales and Use Tax Receipts (1994‐2015) Laramie County Sales & Use Taxes (1994‐2015) Selected Laramie County Sales and Use Tax Distribution (1988‐2015) Growth Rates (1997‐2015) Growth Rate Population vs. Employment (1997‐2015) Growth Rates ‐ Wages, Personal Income & Real GDP (1997‐2014) Laramie County GDP (2001‐2014) Electrical Power Sales (1990‐2015) Commercial Electric Power Sales (1990‐2015)
Table 1.4 contains ten primary growth measures including: population, jobs, personal income and GDP. Both the CES and BEA job series data have been revised upward in the last year. Specifically, the CES five‐year average job growth rate now stands at 1.23 percent and the BEA five‐year average growth stands at 1.42 percent. It should be noted that even though these revised growth rate estimates are now higher, prior to the Great Recession employment had been growing at over 2% annually. Looking ahead, we are unlikely to see a return to these pre‐recession employment growth rates any time soon.
The population of both Laramie County and the City of Cheyenne increased again in 2014, but only slightly. Laramie County, including the City of Table 1.7 Gas Consumption (1992‐2015) Cheyenne, added 374 persons (0.39%) and the Table 1.8 Utility Hookups (1992‐2015) City of Cheyenne added 280 persons (0.45%) to Table 1.9 Auto Registrations (1997‐2015) Table 1.10 Enplanements (1997‐2015) their populations. Though still positive, these Table 1.11 Tourism Activity (2006‐2015) population growth rates are down from last year Table 1.12 Oil Production and Prices (2011‐2015) when the population grew at 1.23 percent for Laramie County and 1.35 percent for the City of Cheyenne. Over the past five and ten years, the population growth rate for the County has averaged 1.29 percent and 1.22 percent respectively. The State’s Department of Transportation driver’s license exchange program reported that there were 2887 in‐migrants and 2392 out‐migrants in 2014 which resulted in a net gain of 495 persons, an increase of 7.8 percent from 2013 to 2014. Data on in‐migrants and out‐migrants can be found in Table 4.4(a).
Total Laramie county school enrollments (LCSD #1 and LCSD #2) K‐12 increased by 1.5 percent (231 students) in 2015. Table 4.7 provides complete details.
Figure 2 shows the relationship between population and employment growth rates in Laramie County. Historically job growth has led population growth. However, this relationship has not held since 2012 when the population growth rate declined before the job growth rate.
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Figure 3 shows the relationship between growth rates in real GDP, personal income and wages in Laramie County. Real GDP is the inflation adjusted value of all the final goods and services produced in the economy in a year. Over time the growth rates in real GDP and personal income move in almost lock‐step, and given the inherent similarities between these two measures, this result is not surprising. Changes in wage growth rates tend to be smaller but still move in the same direction as real GDP and personal income. In 2014 all three measures increased, real GDP increased by 2.2 percent, personal income by 3.9 percent, and wages by 1.16 percent.
Table 1.11 reports data on tourism activity. Many of these numbers are down from 2014 to 2015, including visits to two of the Visitor Centers: Visit Cheyenne and the Pine Bluffs Information Center. Museum visits are also down, the average monthly number of paid visitors to the Old West Museum fell from 2,145 to 2,083 (‐ 2.9 percent) and the average monthly number of visitors to the State Museum fell from 4,428 to 3,851 (‐ 13 percent).
In the December 2015 Economic Indicators report, data on oil production were added and data are being added to the Annual Trends report as well. Table 1.12 (a) shows annual Laramie County oil production. Average monthly oil production rose from 317,316 barrels in 2014 to 368,390 barrels in 2015, an increase of 16.1 percent. Oil prices were down; average monthly oil prices were $93.26 in 2014 and $48.69 in 2015, a decrease of 47.8 percent.
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Table 1.0 Cheyenne/Laramie County Profile Most Recent Period Previous Period % Change Year Value Year Value In Value
Items Demography Total Population ‐ Cheyenne¹ Total Population ‐ Laramie County¹ Total Male Population¹ Total Female Population¹ % of Population ‐ Under 20 Years Old¹ % of Population ‐ 65 Years & Older¹ Median Age² % of Population ‐ White Alone (Non‐Hispanic)¹ % of Population ‐ Native American Alone¹ % of Population ‐ Hispanic or Latino¹ Households ‐ County² Average Household Size ‐ County² Households ‐ Cheyenne³ % of Households (HH) Headed by Married Couples² % of HH Headed by Single Female (w/own children