OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation Lecture 1: The Transportation Planning Process Professor Anna Nagurney John F. Smith Memorial Professor and Director – Virtual Center for Supernetworks Department of Operations & Information Management
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Some Background
Transportation provides the infrastructure for the movement of people and goods, and the ties that bind global economic activities. Transportation planning is essential in the complex Network Economy since without appropriate transportation networks goods that are produced cannot be delivered in a timely manner and people cannot reach their intended destinations.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Challenges Today
The challenges faced today in transportation and logistics are numerous and include:
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Challenges Today
The challenges faced today in transportation and logistics are numerous and include: • congestion,
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Challenges Today
The challenges faced today in transportation and logistics are numerous and include: • congestion, • inadequate services, and
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Challenges Today
The challenges faced today in transportation and logistics are numerous and include: • congestion, • inadequate services, and • deteriorating and inadequate infrastructure.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Change in Annual Average Congestion Delay Hours for Commuters in the US from 1982 - 2009
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
The Costs of Congestion Congestion costs continue to rise: measured in constant 2011 dollars, the cost of congestion has risen from $24 billion in 1982 to $121 billion in 2011 in the United States. (Texas Transportation Institute’s Urban Mobility Report (2012)).
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
The Costs of Congestion Congestion costs continue to rise: measured in constant 2011 dollars, the cost of congestion has risen from $24 billion in 1982 to $121 billion in 2011 in the United States. (Texas Transportation Institute’s Urban Mobility Report (2012)). The average commuter spent an extra 38 hours traveling in 2011, up from 16 hours in 1982. In areas with over 3 million persons, commuters experienced an average of 52 hours of delay in 2011.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
The Costs of Congestion Congestion costs continue to rise: measured in constant 2011 dollars, the cost of congestion has risen from $24 billion in 1982 to $121 billion in 2011 in the United States. (Texas Transportation Institute’s Urban Mobility Report (2012)). The average commuter spent an extra 38 hours traveling in 2011, up from 16 hours in 1982. In areas with over 3 million persons, commuters experienced an average of 52 hours of delay in 2011. In 2011, 2.9 billion gallons of wasted fuel (enough to fill 4 New Orleans Superdomes). Of course, given fossil-fueled vehicles, the higher the congestion, the higher the emissions since cars are idling. This adds to the costs associated with pollution. Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
The Costs of Congestion Congestion costs continue to rise: measured in constant 2011 dollars, the cost of congestion has risen from $24 billion in 1982 to $121 billion in 2011 in the United States. (Texas Transportation Institute’s Urban Mobility Report (2012)). The average commuter spent an extra 38 hours traveling in 2011, up from 16 hours in 1982. In areas with over 3 million persons, commuters experienced an average of 52 hours of delay in 2011. In 2011, 2.9 billion gallons of wasted fuel (enough to fill 4 New Orleans Superdomes). Of course, given fossil-fueled vehicles, the higher the congestion, the higher the emissions since cars are idling. This adds to the costs associated with pollution. Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
The Most Congested US Metropolitan Areas According to INRIX Inc. which publishes a National Traffic Scorecard, the 2013 Top Congested Metropolitan Areas Were:
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Traffic Congestion in the USA Copyright by Texas Transportation Institute, 2004
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Traffic Congestion is Increasing Globally
Traffic Congestion in India remixconcepts.blogspot.com Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Urbanization and Congestion Today, over half of the world’s population lives in cities and the United Nations is predicting that by the year 2050, 7 out of 10 people will be living in an urban area. According to INRIX, the Ford Motor Company expects that the number of vehicles on the roads will grow from about 1 billion today to between 2-4 billion during this period of time If traffic continues to increase at 3 ties the rate of employment and GDP growth as it did in 2013, then the 10-day long traffic jams in China and the 2 to 3 hour daily commutes that drivers face in certain parts of the world, including Sao Paolo, Brazil, could occur in Europe and even in North America. Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Networks Needed Also in Disasters
Networks are the fundamental critical infrastructure for the movement of people and goods in our globalized Network Economy. Transportation networks also serve as the primary conduit for rescue, recovery, and reconstruction in disasters.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Recent disasters have vividly demonstrated the importance and vulnerability of our transportation and critical infrastructure systems • The biggest blackout in North America, August 14, 2003; • Indonesian tsunami and earthquake, December 26, 2004; • Hurricane Katrina, August 23, 2005; • Minneapolis I35 Bridge collapse, August 1, 2007; • The Sichuan earthquake on May 12, 2008; • The Haiti earthquake that struck on January 12, 2010 and the Chilean one on February 27, 2010; • The triple disaster in Japan on March 11, 2011; • Superstorm Sandy, October 29, 2012, second costliest hurricane in US history. Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Hurricane Katrina in 2005
Hurricane Katrina has been called an “American tragedy,” in which essential services failed completely.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
The Haitian and Chilean Earthquakes
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
The Triple Disaster in Japan on March 11, 2011
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Superstorm Sandy and Power Outages
Manhattan without power October 30, 2012 as a result of the devastation wrought by Superstorm Sandy. Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
The Impact of Disasters Disasters have brought an unprecedented impact on human lives in the 21st century and the number of disasters is growing. From January to October 2005, an estimated 97,490 people were killed in disasters globally; 88,117 of them because of natural disasters.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process We will first focus on urban transportation planning since cities are complex and such systems are large-scale. We can extrapolate what we learn from such transportation networks to other transportation systems. Phase I - Base Year Inventory Make inventory of existing network + existing traffic patterns. • Origin/Destination (O/D) travel demand tables • counters on roads • inventory of planning factors B is it industrial? B what is the income distribution? B types of employment. Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process
Collection of data to be used in model to predict the traffic flow pattern.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process
Collection of data to be used in model to predict the traffic flow pattern. ∗ The data must be extrapolated if it is to be used for predicting future traffic patterns.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
US Interstate Highway Network www.freightcenter.com
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process Phase II - Model Building Interested in finding out relationships among parameters of the system. 3 categories of relationships 1. Trip Generation Models # of trips generated in a certain area and/or attracted to a certain area. Ox , Dy : Ox = # of trips produced (generated) at zone x (production zone) Dy = # of trips attracted to zone y (attraction zone) Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
2. Trip Distribution Models Given Ox ’s and Dy ’s find the origin/destination (O/D) travel demand table. Will then know how many travelers from Ox will go to Dy ; for all x, y pairs.
Ox
y1
x1
y2
x2
y3
Dy Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process Travel Demand: dxy = kOx Dy f (cxy ) cxy : travel cost from zone x to zone y ∗ dxy increases as cxy decreases. 3. Traffic Assignment Models Given O/D table dxy ’s, find how this travel demand is distributed among different routes and modes of transportation.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process
Relates traffic flow pattern to O/D pairs and characteristics of networks. Can be applied to:
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process
Relates traffic flow pattern to O/D pairs and characteristics of networks. Can be applied to: • communication networks, including the Internet
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process
Relates traffic flow pattern to O/D pairs and characteristics of networks. Can be applied to: • communication networks, including the Internet • energy networks (oil, gas, etc.)
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process
Relates traffic flow pattern to O/D pairs and characteristics of networks. Can be applied to: • communication networks, including the Internet • energy networks (oil, gas, etc.) • electrical networks
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process
Relates traffic flow pattern to O/D pairs and characteristics of networks. Can be applied to: • • • •
communication networks, including the Internet energy networks (oil, gas, etc.) electrical networks economic and financial networks.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Other Networks that Behave Like Congested Transportation Networks
The Internet, electric power networks, and even multitiered financial networks behave like transportation networks! Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Another Type of Traffic Congestion! www.darkroastedblend.com
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process Three Stage Model for Transportation Planning
Trip Generation
{Ox} {Dy}
Trip Distribution
trip ends
{dxy}
Traffic Assignment
O/D demand pattern
link load pattern
update for congested networks
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process Phase III - Travel Forecasts Extrapolation - to predict parameters for which we have data from Phase I. Data from Phase I may be crude. Phase IV - Network Evaluation Goal is to compare networks. What is the traffic that will be generated by the 3 or 4 networks - evaluation of both costs + benefits.
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Amherst Area View from Mt. Sugarloaf Travel Monkeys’ Gallery
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
References ⇒ Beckmann M., McGuire C.B., Winsten C.B. (1956) Studies in the Economics of Transportation. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut; also published as Rand-RM-1488-PR, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, May 12, 1955 http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/archive/reprints/specpub-BMW.pdf
⇒ Sheffi Y. (1985) Urban Transportation Networks: Equilibrium Analysis with Mathematical Programming Methods. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey http://web.mit.edu/sheffi/www/selectedMedia/sheffi urban trans networks.pdf
⇒ Nagurney A. (1999) Network Economics: A Variational Inequality Approach, second and revised edition. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Massachusetts http://supernet.som.umass.edu/bookser/netbook.htm
⇒ Nagurney A. (2002) Network Economics (Fulbright Lectures) http://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu/austria lectures/fulmain.html
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
Additional Reading Pocket Guide to Transportation (2013), RITA, Bureau of Transportation Statistics: I For additional background material, see the Virtual Center for Supernetworks website: http://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu I
Professor Anna Nagurney
OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1
