JCE3460 Transportation Planning
Transportation Planning Agenda 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
What is transportation planning? “Top 10” elements of great transportation systems The planner’s toolbox 4 Step Modeling Process Transportation Evaluations
What is a Comprehensive Transportation Plan? y Description of existing
transportation system y Vision of the future system y Plan for implementation { {
Future system map Enabling policies
Why do we Plan? y Provide for basic needs {
Accessibility and mobility
y Accommodate growth {
Congestion, safety, growth, economic development
y Minimize impacts {
Relocations, cost, environment, neighborhoods
y Build consensus {
Business community, elected officials, public, other agencies
Transportation Land Use Cycle
The Goal: Decision Oriented Planning 1.
The world moves into the future as a result of decisions (or the lack of decisions), not as a result of plans
2.
All decisions involve the evaluation of alternative images of the future and the selection of the most highly valued of feasible alternatives
3.
Evaluations and decisions are influenced by the degree of uncertainty associated with expected consequences
4.
The products of planning should be designed to increase the chance of making better decisions
5.
The result of planning is some form of communication with decision makers
Urban transportation planning is the process of: |
Establishing a vision of what a community wants to be and how the transportation system fits into this vision.
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Understanding the types of decisions that need to be made to achieve this vision.
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Assessing opportunities and limitations of the future in relationship to goals and desired system performance measures.
PTP Refresher Course
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Identifying the near- and long-term consequences to the community and to transportation system users of alternative choices designed to take advantage of these opportunities or respond to these limitations.
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Relating alternative decisions to the goals, objectives, or system performance measures established for an urban area, agency, or firm.
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Presenting this information to decision makers in an understandable and useful form.
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Helping decision-makers establish priorities and develop an investment program. PTP Refresher Course
Demographics
Population Growth and Distribution
Transportation System Condition
Evolving Economic Markets
Energy Supply and Price Environmental Imperatives
Technology
Transportation System
Enables
Financing Capacity
Changing Institutional Structures
Connections Competitiveness Community Development Environmental Quality National and Personal Security Quality of Life
PTP Refresher Course
Transportation Decision Making Process System Evaluation
Problems
Vision and Goals
Needs and
Future Growth
Opportunities
Projects
Development
Policies
of
Behaviors
Alternatives
Thoroughfare Map
Consensus
Policies
Documentation
Funding
Implementation
Steps in Transportation Planning System Operations
Implementation of Strategies Other Sources for Project Ideas
Short- (3-5 year) Range Program
Economic Development Goals and Objectives
Vision Mobility and Accessibility
Performance Measures
Alternative Improvement Strategies
Environmental Quality
Policies Operations strategies Data
Understanding the Problem
Evaluation
Analysis Methods
LongRange Plan
Infrastructure projects Studies Regulations Education and awareness Enforcement Financing strategies Partnerships Collaborative undertakings
PTP Refresher Course
Vision, Goals, Policies Plan Implementation
Community Development Improvement Regulations Programs and Zoning
Elements of a Great transportation System? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Safety Efficient Accessible Sustainable Managed Integrated Route options Modal options Facilities designed for role they serve Aesthetically Pleasing
Transportation Safety 140,000
Annualized US War Fatilities Annual US Roadway Fatilities
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
Haiti Invasion
Somalia Operation
Persian Gulf War
Panama Invasion
Vietnam Conflict
Grenada Invasion
Korean Conflict
World War I
World War II
Spanish-American War
Civil War
Mexican War
War of 1812
Revolutionary War
0
Annual traffic accident cost are about $2000 per typical American family
Efficiency y New/Expanded Roads y Effective Design (E.g., DDI) y Bottleneck Removal y Traffic Control (Active Mgmt)
Accessibility y Regional and Local y Modal Connections y ADA
Land-Use Impact Manchester Rd, Rock Hill, St. Louis County
Sustainability y Maintenance y Funding y Environment y Expandable
Systems Management y Incident Management y Emergency Response
Integrated y Modal connections y Effective parking
Gateway Transportation Center, St. Louis City
Route Choices
Modal Options
Facilities Designed for Role They Serve y Functional Classification System y Context Sensitive
Aesthetic
The Planner’s Toolbox y Functional Classification y Access Management y Traffic Impact Studies y Great Streets/Context Sensitive Solutions y Funding y Major Thoroughfare Plan y Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan
Functional Classification y Principal arterials. Provide and integrated system that
is continuous throughout the urbanized area. y Major arterials. Serve as primary links to the principal
arterial system and are intended to provide general mobility within the region. Comprise 5 to 10 percent of road network, carry 40 to 65 percent of VMT. y Minor arterials. Complement and support the principal and major arterial network but are primarily oriented toward motor vehicle travel at the community level. Comprise 15 to 25 percent of the road network, carry 65 to 85 percent of total vehicle miles traveled. y Collectors. Operate at the community level to provide local connections to minor and major arterials. y Local streets. Provide for local circulation and access. Primary connections between neighborhoods and adjacent land uses. Comprise 65 to 80 percent of road network, carry 10 to 30 percent of VMT.
Access Management
Source: http://www.accessmanagement.gov Indiana
Why Implement Access Management? y Up to 50% crash y y y y y
reduction 23-45% capacity increase 40-60% delay reduction Better business environment Improved quality of life Save tax dollars
Camdenton
Source: Michigan DOT
Access Management Tools y Access rights y Intersection spacing y Access management
standards/guidelines y Driveway controls y Turning restrictions y Frontage/backage roads y Shared/cross access y Comprehensive planning y Zoning ordinances y Site plan development y Permitting
Example Maryland Heights Howard Bend Levee District y 25M ft2 planned development y Regional park y Comprehensive plan y
{ { {
6-lane expressway Parallel collector roadway Extensive Coordination: ÙDevelopers,
Land Owners, Levee District, Existing Businesses, St. Louis County and MoDOT
Backage Roads Near US12/18 in Madison, WI
Traffic Impact Studies y Determine the need for any improvements to interior,
adjacent, and nearby road systems y Steps { { { { { {
Existing Conditions Traffic Forecasting Determine Impact Alternatives Development Traffic Capacity Analyses Parking Analysis
Great Streets Representative of their places Allow people to walk
comfortably and safely Contribute to the economic vitality of the city Functionally complete Provide mobility Facilitate place-making
Manchester Rd, Maplewood, St. Louis County
Pictures taken from http://www.ewgateway.org/pdffiles/library/greatstreets/presentations/Labadie-040108-SS.pdf
Principles of Context Sensitive Design (FHWA) {
{ {
{
{
{
{
The project satisfies the purpose and needs as agreed to by a full range of stakeholders. The project is a safe facility for both the user and the community. The project is in harmony with the community, and it preserves environmental, scenic, aesthetic, historic, and natural resource values of the area. The project exceeds the expectations of both designers and stakeholders and achieves a level of excellence in people's minds. The project involves efficient and effective use of the resources (time, budget, community) of all involved parties. The project is designed and built with minimal disruption to the community. The project is seen as having added lasting value to the community.
Funding Mechanisms y Local Programs… { Transportation Development Districts - a temporary, local, political subdivision that can be authorized by a vote of the public or all owners of real property affected by the district to plan, develop, finance, and levy taxes for a particular transportation project. { Impact Fees { Transportation Corporations - specialized, temporary, private, not-for-profit corporations that can be organized to plan, develop, and finance a particular transportation project. y Some MoDOT Programs… { Cost Sharing Program - Working with Transportation Planning Innovative Finance provides guidance on projects where MoDOT commits a portion of project costs for projects not on the department's right-of-way and construction program, but that will benefit the state highway system. { Economic Development Program - Working with Transportation Planning to provide a method of funding projects that will significantly impact the economic development in a given area.
Major Thoroughfare Plan
Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan
Lafayette Ave, Lafayette Park, St. Louis City
Lindbergh Blvd, Ladue, St. Louis County
Four-Step Demand Model
I Pi
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
I
J Aj J
Tij Tij,auto
I
Mode Split
I
J Tij,transit
Assignment Route taken from i to j)
J
PTP Refresher Course
Trip Generation
• Cross classification • Linear regression • Trip productions • Trip attractions
PTP Refresher Course
Trip Generation Example regression equations for estimating attractions by purpose and location HBW Attractions = 1.45 x Total employment HBO Attractions CBD = (2.00 x CBD RE) + (1.7 x SE) + (0.5 x OE) + (0.9 x HH) HBO Attractions NCBD = (9.00 x NCBD RE) + (1.7 x SE) + (0.5 x OE) + (0.9 x HH) NHB Attractions CBD = (1.40 x DBD RE) + (1.2 x SE) + (0.5 x OE) + (0.5 x HH) NHB Attractions NCBD = (4.10 x NCBD RE) + (1.2 x SE) + (0.5 x PE) + (0.5 x HH) Where: CBD RE = Retail employment in central business district zones NCBD RE = Retail employment in non-central business district zones SE = Service employment OE = Other employment (basic and government) HH = Households
PTP Refresher Course
Trip Distribution-Gravity Model
Σ
Mode Split – Modal Utility Uin = βi Xin + εin Uin is the level of utility associated with mode i being chosen by individual n Xin is a vector of measurable characteristics that determine the satisfaction associated with choosing mode i for individual n βi is a vector of estimable coefficients εin is an error term accounting for unobserved effects influencing the mode choice of individual n. PTP Refresher Course
Trip Assignment
Link attributes: road or transit line capacity, link length, speed limits, turning restrictions, traffic signals, etc. Average speed or generalized cost function Link performance function User Equilibrium PTP Refresher Course
Transportation System Evaluation
PTP Refresher Course
Evaluation is the process of determining the desirability of different courses of action and of presenting this information to decision-makers in a comprehensive and useful form.
PTP Refresher Course
Evaluation Questions Appropriateness
Efficiency
What information on impacts and trade-offs is required for the decisions that need to be made? Do the objectives attained by the alternative reflect previously specified community goals and objectives?
Does the alternative provide sufficient benefits to justify the costs? In comparison with other alternatives, are the additional benefits provided (or foregone) worth the extra cost (or cost savings)?
Equity What is the distribution of benefits and costs among members of the community? Do any groups pay shares of the costs that are disproportionate to the benefits they receive?
Effectiveness Is the alternative likely to produce the desired results? To what extent are planning and community goals attained through the implementation of the alternative?
Implementation Feasibility Will the funds be available to implement the alternative on schedule? Are there any administrative or legal barriers to alternative implementation? Does the organizational capability (e.g., staff and expertise) exist to implement the alternative? Are there groups that are likely to oppose the alternative?
Sensitivity Analysis Adequacy Does the alternative correspond to the scale of the problem and to the level of expectation of problem solution? Are there other alternatives that might be considered?
How are the predicted impacts modified when analysis assumptions are changed? What is the likelihood of these changes occurring?
PTP Refresher Course
Common Characteristics • Several alternative courses of action • Evaluation may lead to improved definitions of alternatives • Different life spans, with corresponding benefits and costs occurring at different points in time • Life cycle costs • Monetary and non-monetary benefits and costs
PTP Refresher Course
Evaluation Criteria
Project Justification Criteria
Measures
Mobility Improvements
Transportation system user benefits Number of low-income households Employment near stations
Environmental Benefits
Change in regional pollutant emissions Change in regional energy consumption EPA air quality designation
Operating Efficiencies
Operating cost per passenger mile
Cost Effectiveness
Hours of transportation system user benefits divided by incremental cost
Existing Land Use, Transit Supportive Land Use Policies and Future Patterns
Specific descriptions of existing land use and the types of policies that will be used to support transit ridership
Other Factors
At discretion of project sponsor
PTP Refresher Course
Evaluation Approaches – Matrix
Alt. 1
Goals and objectives
Alt. 2
Alt. 3
Alt. 4
Alt. 5
Data that measures impact and/or cost effectiveness information
MOE 1 MOE 2 MOE 3 MOE 4 MOE 5 MOE 6 Economic Evaluation
B/C or NPV
B/C or NPV
B/C or NPV
B/C or NPV
B/C or NPV
B/C = Benefit/cost ratios; for “best” alternative one must conduct incremental B/C analysis NPV = Net present value PTP Refresher Course
Costs
Capital Operations and maintenance Real (constant or year of expenditure) Nominal or current
PTP Refresher Course
Direct Economic Benefits Savings to users of the project, in terms of: • Travel-time savings (or increases) to private vehicles • Travel-time savings (or increases) to public transit • Travel-time savings to commercial vehicles • Reduction in out-of-pocket vehicle operating costs (for example, fuel, wear and tear) • Reduction in collision costs
PTP Refresher Course
Value of Time One-third to one-half the pretax wage rate of the users 50 percent of the average work wage rate, before taxes (OMB) 50 percent of the average wage rate in the region (U.S. DOT)
PTP Refresher Course
Safety (2003 dollars)
Fatality
$3,610,000
Incapacitating injury
$181,000
Non-incapacitating injury
$46,200
Possible injury
$22,000
Property damage only
$2,000
PTP Refresher Course
Evaluation Approaches – Cost Effectiveness
Alt. 7
Benefits
Alt. 5 Alt. 6 Alt. 4
Alt. 3 Alt. 2: TSM Alt. 1: No build Costs
PTP Refresher Course
Evaluation Approaches – NPV
NPVr = Σ(pwfr,t) (benefitsy,t) - Σ(pwfr t) (costsy,t) where, NPVy,r = net present value of project y with discount rate r pwfr,t = present worth factor with discount rate r and time t benefitsy,t = benefits of project y in time period t costsy,t = costs of project y in time period t n = economic life of project y
PTP Refresher Course
Evaluation Approaches – B/C Analysis
Incremental B/C of project j over k = ( Bj – Bk ) (Cj - Ck)
PTP Refresher Course
Risk
• Changes in scope of the project • Changes in the design standards • Incorrect cost assumptions • Unforeseen problems and delays
PTP Refresher Course
