Lecture 1 Transportation Planning Process Dr. Anna Nagurney John F. Smith Memorial Professor Isenberg School of Management University of Massachusetts Amherst, Massachusetts 01003

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2009 Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Transportation Planning Process

Phase I - Base Year Inventory Make inventory of existing network + existing traffic patterns. • O/D travel demand tables • counters on roads • inventory of planning factors B is is industrial? B what is the income distribution? B types of employment.

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Traffic Congestion in the USA Copyright by Texas Transportation Institute, 2004

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Traffic Congestion in India remixconcepts.blogspot.com Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Transportation Planning Process

Collection of data to be used in model to predict the traffic flow pattern. ∗ The data must be extrapolated if it is to be used for predicting future traffic patterns.

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

US Interstate Highway Network www.freightcenter.com

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Transportation Planning Process Phase II - Model Building Interested in finding out relationships among parameters of the system. 3 categories of relationships 1. Trip Generation Models. # of trips attracted to a certain area or generated in a certain area. Ox , Dy : trip ends Ox = # of trips produced (generated) at zone x (production zone) Dy = # of trips attracted to zone y (attraction zone)

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

2. Trip Distribution Models. Given Ox ’s and Dy ’s find the O/D travel demand table. Will then know how many travelers from Ox will go to Dy ; for all x, y pair.

Ox

y1

x1

y2

x2

y3

Dy

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Transportation Planning Process

Travel Demand: dxy = kOx Dy f (cxy ) cxy : travel cost from zone x to zone y ∗ dxy increases as cxy decreases. 3. Traffic Assignment Models. Given O/D table dxy ’s, find how this travel demand is distributed among different routes and modes of transportation.

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Transportation Planning Process

Relates traffic flow pattern to O/D pairs and characteristics of networks. Can be applied to: • communication networks • energy networks • electrical networks • economic and financial networks

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Another Type of Traffic Congestion! www.darkroastedblend.com

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Transportation Planning Process Three Stage Model for Transportation Planning.

Trip Generation

{Ox} {Dy} trip ends

Trip Distribution

{dxy}

Traffic Assignment

O/D demand pattern

link load pattern

update for congested networks

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Transportation Planning Process

Phase III - Travel Forecasts Extrapolation - to predict parameters for which we have data from Phase I. Data from Phase I may be crude. Phase IV - Network Evaluation Goal is to compare networks. What is the traffic that will be generated by the 3 or 4 networks - evaluation of cost + benefits.

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Amherst Area View from Mt. Sugarloaf Travel Monkeys’ Gallery

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

References ⇒ Beckmann M., McGuire C.B., Winsten C.B. (1956) Studies in the Economics of Transportation. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut; also published as Rand-RM-1488-PR, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, May 12, 1955 http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/archive/reprints/specpub-BMW.pdf

⇒ Sheffi Y. (1985) Urban Transportation Networks: Equilibrium Analysis with Mathematical Programming Methods. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey http://web.mit.edu/sheffi/www/selectedMedia/sheffi urban trans networks.pdf

⇒ Nagurney A. (1993) Network Economics: A Variational Inequality Approach. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Massachusetts http://supernet.som.umass.edu/bookser/netbook.htm

⇒ Nagurney A. (2002) Network Economics (Fulbright Lectures) http://supernet.som.umass.edu/austria lectures/fulmain.html

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

Additional Reading

. Pocket Guide to Transportation (2008) by Bureau of Transportation Statistics http://www.bts.gov/publications/pocket guide to transportation/2008/pdf/entire.pdf

. For additional background material, see the Virtual Center for Supernetworks website: http://supernet.som.umass.edu

Dr. Anna Nagurney

FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1