TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
www.harriswilliams.com Investment banking services are provided by Harris W illiams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris W illiams & Co. Ltd, which is authorised and regulat ed bythe Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co.is atrade name underwhich Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
WHAT WE’RE READING LOGISTICS | RETAILERS LEASE WAREHOUSE SPACE AT RECORD PACE Firms leased 70.1 million square feet of industrial space in the second quarter of 2016, the most in ov er 30 years of data and up 6% from the same quarter last y ear, real-estate brokerage Cu shman & Wakefield Inc. said in a report Monday. In a separate report, brokerage CBRE Inc. said warehouse availability declined for a 25th consecutiv e quarter to 8.8%. Wall Street Journal
TRUCKING | BUSIER SPOT MARKET MAY SIGNAL A U.S. TRUCK RATE SPIKE Pricing trends in the late second quarter may foreshadow a spike in higher transportation costs ahead for U.S. shippers. T ruckload spot market capacity got a bit tighter in June, and pricing climbed higher, as a seasonal increase in freight v olumes, coupled with the produce season and a nationwide roadside truck inspection program, filled more trailers. DAT’s av erage dry v an port market rates, excluding fuel su rcharges, rose from the mid-$1.30s into the $1.40s in June and shot up to $1.49 in the week ending July 9t h. This should be a warning to brokers and shippers that the excess layer of truck capacity depressin g transportation rates in the U.S. is not v ery thick or deep, and could dissipate quickly, especially as freight demand picks up this fall. Journal of Commerce
MARINE | LONG BEACH VOLUME RISES AS PEAK SEASON BEGINS Laden containerized imports in Long Beach increased 5.5% in June from the same month in 2015 to 313,526 twenty-foot-equiv alent units as the second-largest port transitions to the su mmer-fall peak-shipping season. Total container v olume in Lon g Beach, including laden export containers and empties, increased 3.4% compared with June 2015 to 603,339 TEUs. Loaded export containers declined slightly by 0.1% to 128,009 TEUs. Exports could remain weak if the dollar strengthen s against other curren cies as it has done in recent weeks, which would make U.S. exports more costly for ov erseas buyers. Journal of Commerce
RAIL | RAIL PICKS UP STEAM From consu mer goods to automobiles and perishable products, an increasin g number of shippers are findin g that transporting products v ia North America’s Class I railroads remains a cost-effectiv e method of transport. Rail and intermodal transportation prov iders say they are supporting the supply chain with faster deliv eries, infrastructure improv ements and improv ed tracking capabilities. At the same time, rail and intermodal prov iders are seein g an uptick in demand driv en by increased regulations within the trucking industry. SDC Executiv e
AIR | AIR CARGO FIRMS FEEL PRESSURE FROM LOWER FREIGHT PRICES Following a sharp fall in freight prices, air cargo companies are set to trim their fleet s and jobs further to battle ov ercapacity while looking for new partnerships and products to carry, industry executiv es and analysts say. Global trade volumes fell for the first time since 2009 by 1.7% between the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 and the International Air Transport Association has lowered its growth forecast for air freight demand in 2016 to 2.1% from 3%. And while the impact of Britain's Brexit v ote on the UK air freight market remains un certain, p rices for air freight generally are down about 15-20% compared with last year due to capacity outstripping demand by a factor of three. Reuters
CONTENTS M &A TRANSACTIONS PUBLIC M ARKETS OVERVIEW STOCK PRICE PERFORM ANCE OUR GROUP
CONTACTS UNITED STATES Frank Mountcastle M anaging Director
[email protected] +1 (804) 915-0124 Jason Bass M anaging Director jbass@harrisw illiams.com +1 (804) 915-0132 Joe Conner M anaging Director jconner@harrisw illiams.com +1 (804) 915-0151 Jeff Burkett Director
[email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334 Jershon Jones Director jjones@harrisw illiams.com +1 (804) 932-1356 Jeff Kidd Vice President jkidd@harrisw illiams.com +1 (804) 915-0178 James O’Malley Vice President
[email protected] +1 (804) 915-0165
EUROPE Jeffery Perkins M anaging Director jperkins@harrisw illiams.com +49 (0) 69 3650638 00
www.harriswilliams.com
PAGE | 1
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
M&A TRANSACTIONS RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2 Date
Sector
7/18/2016
Logistics
Span Alaska
Target
Prov ides LCL freight consolidation and forw arding serv ices to Alaska.
Matson Logistics, I nc.
7/16/2016
Logistics
Farren I nternational, LLC
Prov ides transportation, rigging and related v alue-added solutions such as w arehousing and kitting.
EZE Truck Holdings, I nc.
7/7/2016
Logistics
Global Transportation Serv ices, I nc.
Prov ides freight forw arding and 3PL logistics.
American Fast Freight
7/5/2016
Logistics
Jones Motor Group
Prov ides flatbed, heav y haul, dry v an, refrigerated and LTL transportation serv ices.
Transport I nv estments, I nc.
6/29/2016
Marine
R.S. Stern, I nc.
Prov ides custom, last mile logistics serv ices to supply critical perishable goods and required deck and engine products.
Ship Supply I nternational
6/21/2016
Logistics
Dematic
Prov ides supply chain optimisation and automation.
KI ON Group
6/20/2016
Logistics
G-Force Shipping
Prov ides transportation management serv ices.
Blue-Grace Logistics LLC
6/9/2016
Logistics
American Global Logistics LLC
Prov ides customized logistics solutions and offers end-to-end ocean and air transportation.
NexPhase Capital
6/3/2016
Logistics
I sotank Transport Serv ices Ltd.
Prov ides container transport, cleaning, and depot serv ices.
Quality Distribution, I nc.
6/2/2016
Trucking
Lodeso, I nc.
Prov ides last-mile deliv ery serv ices.
Schneider National, I nc.
6/2/2016
Trucking
Watkins & Shepard Trucking, I nc.
Prov ides LTL, dry v an, flatbed, and freight management serv ices.
Schneider National, I nc.
6/1/2016
Marine
Apex Maritime Co., I nc.
Prov ides ocean, air, customer brokerage logistics, and freight solutions.
Kerry Logisics Netw ork Ltd.
6/1/2016
Logistics
Prov ides logistics serv ices including flatbed, rail-intermodal, LTL, TL, and freight management.
CAI I nternational, I nc.
5/12/2016
Equipment
Hybrid Logistics, I nc. and General Transportation Serv ices, I nc. Direct ChassisLink, I nc.
Prov ides chassis leasing and chassis / container management serv ices.
EQT I nfrastructure Partners
5/11/2016
Rail
Heart of Texas Railraod LP
Operates railw ay track betw een Lometa and Brady in Texas.
BROE Management Co. LLC
5/9/2016
Rail
Designer and manufacturer of railcar and railroad track products.
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
5/2/2016
Logistics
UNI TRAC Railroad Materials, I nc. and Pride Bodies Ltd LeanLogistics, I nc.
Prov ides SaaS transportation management system applications and supply chain serv ices.
Kew ill plc
4/29/2016
Logistics
pixi* Softw are GmbH
Prov ides softw are solutions and applications for logistics businesses.
The Descartes Systems Group I nc
4/14/2016
Marine
Maher Terminals USA, LLC
Ow ns and operates a multi-user container terminal in Port Elizabeth, New Jersey.
Macquarie I nfrastructure Partners I nc.
Business Description
Acquirer
*Denot es pending t ransactions
PAGE | 2
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW TEV / LTM EBITDA
TEV / 2016E EBITDA
Logistics Providers
10.6x
Rail & Rail Services Marine Trucking Transportation Equipment
Rail & Rail Services
9.0x
Logistics Providers
7.4x
4.8x
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2012 – 2015) Rail & Rail Services 5.3%
Logistics Providers
4.7% 3.4%
5.4x
Transportation Equipment
5.3x
Logistics Providers
17.0%
Trucking
15.9%
Rail & Rail Services
14.5%
Logistics Providers
8.3% 2.7%
5.7%
Trucking
1.7%
Transportation Equipment
1.2%
Rail & Rail Services
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015)
Marine
Trucking
Marine
(0.0%)
Transportation Equipment
7.0x
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2015 – 2017P) 7.2%
Trucking
Marine
8.6x
Marine
5.5x
Transportation Equipment
9.1x
(5.2%) (6.6%)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2015 – 2017P) Logistics Providers
12.6%
Marine Trucking Transportation Equipment Rail & Rail Services
5.2% 2.6% 0.1% (6.0%)
PAGE | 3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH)
MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
Trucking
3.9%
S&P 500
Rail & Rail Services
3.7%
Logistics Providers
S&P 500 Logistics Providers
2.7%
Marine
(6.1%)
Rail & Rail Services
(0.6%)
Transportation Equipment
2.5%
(13.1%)
Marine (4.3%)
Trucking
(6.3%)
Transportation Equipment
(22.1%) (24.6%) (28.3%)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (Indexed t o July 15, 2015)
10% 5% 0% (5%) (10%) (15%) (20%) (25%) (30%) (35%) (40%) (45%) Jul-15-2015
Oct-15-2015
Jan-15-2016
Apr-15-2016
Jul-15-2016
Logistics Providers
Trucking
Rail and Rail Services
Marine
Transportation Equipment
S&P 500 Index
PAGE | 4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
OUR GROUP Harris Williams & Co. is a leading adv isor to the t ransportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & Logistics Group serv es companies in a broad range of attractiv e niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), tru ck, rail, marine and air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotiv e and heav y duty v ehicle market.
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
has merged with a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of an operating company of
has been acquired by
in a recapitalization by
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
has acquired has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by a portfolio company of
and
RCL Services Group in partnership with a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
and
a portfolio company of
has sold and
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
to
has been acquired by
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
NICHE TRANSPORTATION AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY VEHICLE AIR TRANSPORTATION
PAGE | 5
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
OUR FIRM Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities. Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence and collaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For more information, visit our website at www.harriswilliams.com/industries Aerospace, Defense & Government Services
Building Products & M aterials
Business Services
Consumer
Energy, Pow er & Infrastructure
Healthcare & Life Sciences
Industrials
Specialty Distribution
Technology, M edia & Telecom
Transportation Transportation & Logistics Logistics
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Richmond (Headquarters)
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PAGE | 6
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
PUBLIC COMPARABLES ($ in millions except per share data)
Stock Price Current
TEV
Stock Performance Change from Prior Month Prior Year
High
52-Week % of High
Jul-15
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of Jan-16 Current
TEV / EBITDA 2016E 2017P
Transportation & Logistics
Logistics Providers Agility Public Warehousing Co. K.S.C.
$1,831
$1.56
(3.4%)
(27.5%)
$2.21
70.2%
9.6x
5.5x
6.0x
1,250
14.11
3.8%
33.0%
15.53
90.9%
5.1x
4.7x
6.2x
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc.
NA 5.8x
NA 4.9x
2,597
42.79
(7.0%)
(19.2%)
57.77
74.1%
7.3x
8.5x
10.6x
6.1x
5.6x
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
11,199
72.45
(0.7%)
11.8%
76.10
95.2%
12.1x
10.6x
11.9x
11.6x
11.1x
Deutsche Post AG
38,956
28.40
(3.0%)
(9.3%)
31.71
89.6%
12.8x
11.5x
12.6x
7.2x
6.8x
9,276
42.00
(4.0%)
23.8%
46.66
90.0%
12.3x
12.3x
17.3x
15.2x
12.6x
13.3x
14.7x
10.3x
8.5x
9.6x
10.8x
11.3x
10.7x
DSV A/S Echo Global Logistics, Inc Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. FedEx Corporation
856
23.50
2.7%
(28.6%)
33.43
70.3%
8,138
49.99
1.5%
8.9%
51.80
96.5%
10.9x
NM
50,273
159.95
(0.6%)
(6.4%)
173.00
92.5%
10.6x
8.0x
9.2x
6.1x
5.6x
Forward Air Corporation
1,419
45.28
(0.7%)
(14.8%)
53.30
85.0%
14.0x
10.8x
10.0x
9.1x
8.2x
Hub Group, Inc. Class A
1,366
40.61
1.9%
(2.7%)
44.00
92.3%
10.8x
6.6x
8.2x
8.1x
7.7x
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
10,682
85.32
5.4%
(0.5%)
89.43
95.4%
11.0x
8.4x
9.9x
9.6x
8.8x
Kuhne & Nagel International AG
15,738
138.91
(1.8%)
4.4%
147.27
94.3%
14.8x
13.7x
14.7x
13.8x
13.2x
Landstar System, Inc.
2,956
71.05
8.1%
3.0%
73.60
96.5%
11.0x
9.2x
11.5x
11.7x
11.0x
Panalpina Welttransport (Holding) AG
2,458
119.57
(1.6%)
(2.9%)
131.39
91.0%
13.6x
11.8x
13.7x
13.3x
10.8x
735
8.51
11.8%
(67.4%)
26.95
31.6%
10.3x
6.0x
6.3x
6.0x
5.3x
9,121
67.06
2.1%
(26.9%)
93.86
71.4%
6.4x
4.9x
5.4x
5.0x
4.7x
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. Ryder System, Inc. TransForce Inc. United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
2,586
19.00
0.6%
(6.1%)
20.69
91.8%
10.2x
8.4x
8.0x
7.6x
7.3x
107,793
110.29
5.5%
12.8%
110.74
99.6%
11.8x
9.8x
11.2x
10.3x
9.8x
603
13.89
(3.6%)
(37.3%)
22.58
61.5%
7.5x
5.5x
5.7x
5.8x
5.4x
8,659
27.17
(6.2%)
(41.0%)
47.30
57.4%
16.1x
12.8x
7.0x
6.0x
(0.6%)
(6.1%)
9.2x
10.6x
8.6x
8.0x
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. XPO Logistics, Inc. Median
90.9%
NM 10.9x
Trucking ArcBest Corporation
$452
$17.58
4.1%
(45.3%)
$34.97
50.3%
4.4x
2.9x
2.8x
3.2x
2.7x
Celadon Group, Inc.
773
8.61
(13.9%)
(61.2%)
22.95
37.5%
9.2x
6.1x
6.4x
5.7x
5.8x
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. Class A
547
19.82
(12.1%)
(25.9%)
27.27
72.7%
5.3x
3.8x
3.8x
4.8x
4.5x
Heartland Express, Inc.
1,442
18.11
(0.4%)
(11.6%)
22.13
81.8%
8.2x
7.1x
7.4x
7.2x
6.7x
Knight Transportation, Inc.
2,386
28.25
6.4%
(2.4%)
29.00
97.4%
8.7x
6.8x
8.6x
8.6x
7.9x
703
21.56
8.6%
(2.9%)
22.88
94.3%
6.1x
4.7x
5.4x
5.1x
4.7x
5,454
63.53
5.8%
(6.6%)
74.86
84.9%
9.1x
7.1x
8.0x
8.1x
7.3x
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc.
242
17.56
(4.0%)
(71.5%)
61.87
28.4%
8.4x
4.7x
4.0x
3.8x
3.5x
Saia, Inc.
793
26.60
3.8%
(34.9%)
45.24
58.8%
7.1x
3.7x
5.2x
5.2x
4.8x
3,409
16.69
6.1%
(30.1%)
24.76
67.4%
7.6x
5.1x
5.7x
5.5x
5.1x
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.
603
13.89
(3.6%)
(37.3%)
22.58
61.5%
7.5x
5.5x
5.7x
5.8x
5.4x
USA Truck, Inc.
291
19.92
5.1%
(7.9%)
24.00
83.0%
5.0x
4.7x
5.6x
6.1x
5.6x
1,807
24.22
(1.5%)
(12.4%)
29.34
82.5%
6.0x
4.2x
4.6x
5.3x
4.9x
1,184
10.21
13.3%
(23.3%)
21.37
3.9%
(24.6%)
Marten Transport, Ltd. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Swift Transportation Company Class A
Werner Enterprises, Inc. YRC Worldwide Inc. Median
47.8%
4.7x
4.7x
4.5x
3.8x
3.4x
70.0%
7.3x
4.7x
5.5x
5.4x
5.0x
PAGE | 7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
PUBLIC COMPARABLES ($ in millions except per share data)
Stock Price Current
TEV
Stock Performance Change from Prior Month Prior Year
High
52-Week % of High
Jul-15
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of Jan-16 Current
TEV / EBITDA 2016E 2017P
Transportation & Logistics
Rail and Rail Services American Railcar Industries, Inc.
$1,191
$41.97
3.6%
(9.6%)
$57.93
72.4%
5.7x
4.5x
4.7x
6.0x
7.1x
Canadian National Railway Company
55,576
61.21
3.3%
5.6%
66.26
92.4%
10.3x
9.7x
11.0x
11.1x
10.5x
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited
27,088
136.50
4.9%
(12.9%)
163.00
83.7%
11.5x
9.9x
11.3x
10.6x
10.0x
CSX Corporation
35,432
27.02
0.9%
(15.3%)
33.10
81.6%
8.3x
6.8x
7.6x
7.9x
7.5x
93
15.42
7.8%
(27.4%)
24.95
61.8%
5.7x
1.9x
1.5x
2.6x
3.7x
Genesee & Wyoming, Inc. Class A
5,858
62.92
(0.4%)
(13.2%)
76.34
82.4%
10.9x
8.6x
10.1x
10.2x
9.4x
Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
1,255
31.60
10.2%
(34.5%)
48.86
64.7%
5.5x
2.3x
2.5x
2.8x
4.3x
Kansas City Southern
12,532
91.30
3.2%
(3.0%)
101.24
90.2%
11.4x
9.3x
11.4x
11.2x
10.2x
Norfolk Southern Corporation
35,618
88.42
5.1%
2.3%
98.75
89.5%
8.2x
8.2x
8.8x
8.7x
8.1x
5,828
20.90
14.6%
(19.1%)
30.38
68.8%
4.8x
3.9x
4.1x
5.9x
6.9x 8.9x
FreightCar America, Inc.
Trinity Industries, Inc. Union Pacific Corporation
90,467
92.06
3.7%
(5.2%)
99.71
92.3%
9.1x
7.7x
9.2x
9.6x
7,011
72.52
(3.5%)
(24.0%)
103.07
70.4%
14.7x
9.1x
10.2x
10.5x
9.8x
3.7%
(13.1%)
82.0%
8.7x
8.0x
9.0x
9.1x
8.5x
10.8x
10.8x
7.1x
6.5x
6.3x
6.3x
6.5x
6.8x
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation Median Marine Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. Costamare Inc. Diana Shipping Inc.
$872
$6.41
6.5%
(49.0%)
$12.67
50.6%
2,063
8.64
(12.6%)
(52.4%)
18.93
45.6%
NM 9.1x
668
2.78
17.3%
(63.5%)
8.27
33.6%
Kirby Corporation
4,139
63.92
(9.3%)
(18.4%)
78.72
81.2%
8.3x
Matson, Inc.
1,950
34.00
2.2%
(21.6%)
53.18
63.9%
Neptune Orient Lines Limited
5,336
0.96
0.6%
48.0%
0.97
99.0%
Nordic American Tankers Limited
1,550
14.17
(10.4%)
(6.3%)
17.45
81.2%
10.0x
7.3x
7.2x
7.9x
9.0x
227
1.05
(19.2%)
(67.4%)
3.24
32.5%
7.7x
7.8x
7.0x
7.0x
6.2x
SEACOR Holdings Inc.
1,553
58.14
(3.3%)
(15.0%)
69.75
83.4%
9.6x
8.7x
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA
1,820
2.42
(17.2%)
(22.7%)
6.02
40.2%
(6.3%)
(22.1%)
Rand Logistics, Inc.
Median
57.3%
NM
NM
NM
NM
5.8x
7.6x
8.8x
10.0x
7.0x
6.6x
6.6x
9.8x
15.2x
NM 9.6x
NM
NM 8.3x 6.2x
NM
10.2x
8.9x
10.5x
11.4x
12.4x
18.8x
4.8x
5.0x
7.8x
7.4x
7.0x
6.8x
Transportation Equipment $381
$1.30
(16.7%)
(65.4%)
$4.19
31.0%
5.9x
4.7x
5.4x
5.3x
5.6x
Dana Holding Corporation
Accuride Corporation
2,572
11.33
(5.4%)
(43.9%)
20.49
55.3%
5.7x
4.2x
4.0x
4.1x
3.9x
Gentherm Incorporated
1,300
36.63
(3.3%)
(28.3%)
51.83
70.7%
13.4x
9.6x
8.2x
7.7x
7.0x
223
7.44
22.0%
68.3%
7.49
99.3%
11.3x
1,006
13.47
(4.3%)
7.9%
14.97
90.0%
6.1x
4.1x
(4.3%)
(28.3%)
70.7%
6.1x
4.4x
Spartan Motors, Inc. Wabash National Corporation Median
NM
NM
15.4x
9.8x
4.2x
4.3x
5.2x
4.8x
5.3x
5.6x
PAGE | 8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
PUBLIC COMPARABLES ($ in millions)
2012
2013
Revenue 2014 2015
$5,061
$4,846
$4,767
$4,330
607
580
590
619
2016E
2017P
Avg. Revenue Growth '12-15 '15-17P
2012
2013
EBITDA 2014 2015
2016E
2017P
Avg. EBITDA Growth '12-15 '15-17P
Transportation & Logistics
Logistics Providers Agility Public Warehousing Co. K.S.C. Air Transport Services Group, Inc. Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc.
NA 725
NA
$258
$289
$276
$292
759
0.6%
10.7%
157
158
179
198
216
NA
(5.1%)
NA
4.2%
NA
266
NA
8.0%
15.9%
(2.9%)
27.0%
1,646
1,657
1,799
1,823
1,928
2,084
3.5%
6.9%
296
292
327
271
400
438
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
11,359
12,752
13,470
13,476
13,300
14,280
5.9%
2.9%
723
740
805
925
969
1,021
8.5%
5.1%
Deutsche Post AG
71,303
73,132
75,117
65,681
66,304
67,818
(2.7%)
1.6%
3,517
3,887
4,198
2,984
5,415
5,726
(5.3%)
38.5%
7,750
8,137
8,645
7,563
10,386
10,859
(0.8%)
19.8%
530
543
560
532
615
742
0.1%
18.1%
758
884
1,173
1,512
1,746
2,035
25.9%
16.0%
34
34
44
54
82
99
16.5%
35.6%
5,981
6,080
6,565
6,617
6,148
6,506
3.4%
(0.8%)
571
600
644
767
726
761
10.4%
(0.4%)
44,287
45,567
47,453
50,365
52,377
62,684
4.4%
11.6%
5,597
6,033
4,951
5,708
8,248
8,977
0.7%
25.4%
DSV A/S Echo Global Logistics, Inc Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. FedEx Corporation Forward Air Corporation
584
652
781
959
1,013
1,079
18.0%
6.1%
105
109
128
128
155
174
7.0%
16.4%
Hub Group, Inc. Class A
3,124
3,374
3,571
3,526
3,514
3,694
4.1%
2.4%
134
137
136
154
168
178
4.8%
7.5%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
5,055
5,585
6,165
6,188
6,576
7,220
7.0%
8.0%
759
825
920
1,054
1,111
1,229
11.6%
8.0%
Kuhne & Nagel International AG
18,248
18,529
19,118
17,376
21,248
22,241
(1.6%)
13.1%
956
1,028
1,073
1,062
1,138
1,197
3.6%
6.2%
Landstar System, Inc.
2,793
2,665
3,185
3,321
3,123
3,309
5.9%
(0.2%)
232
203
276
269
252
272
5.1%
0.4%
Panalpina Welttransport (Holding) AG
7,053
7,289
7,327
6,081
5,643
5,840
(4.8%)
(2.0%)
102
172
205
179
186
227
20.7%
12.6%
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc.
1,073
1,361
1,873
1,995
1,970
2,069
23.0%
1.8%
81
103
125
130
123
138
17.0%
3.2%
Ryder System, Inc.
6,257
6,419
6,639
6,572
6,777
7,091
1.7%
3.9%
1,299
1,361
1,505
1,660
1,835
1,927
8.5%
7.7%
TransForce Inc.
3,141
3,018
3,363
3,150
3,068
3,122
0.1%
(0.4%)
386
319
372
332
337
355
(4.9%)
3.3%
54,064
55,491
58,256
58,050
60,758
63,772
2.4%
4.8%
3,100
8,765
6,889
9,429
10,497
11,022
44.9%
8.1%
1,037
1,033
1,192
1,129
1,107
1,171
2.9%
1.8%
87
123
114
108
103
110
7.4%
0.9%
279 $251,461
702 $259,756
2,357 $273,405
7,623 $267,955
15,029 $282,740
16,125 $303,756
NM 4.7%
NM 5.7%
92 $23,820
474 $26,712
1,241 $33,816
1,440 $36,299
NM 8.3%
NM 12.6%
ArcBest Corporation
$2,066
$2,300
$2,613
$2,667
$2,686
$2,822
8.9%
2.9%
$71
$107
$154
$167
$141
$169
33.0%
0.8%
Celadon Group, Inc.
599
614
742
901
1,060
1,060
14.6%
8.5%
94
99
87
117
139
130
7.7%
5.3%
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. Class A
674
685
719
724
660
701
2.4%
(1.7%)
63
63
89
143
112
118
31.2%
(9.0%)
Heartland Express, Inc.
546
582
871
736
663
696
10.5%
(2.8%)
138
149
208
193
198
213
12.0%
4.9%
Knight Transportation, Inc.
936
969
1,102
1,183
1,144
1,241
8.1%
2.4%
193
193
256
281
277
302
13.3%
3.7%
Marten Transport, Ltd.
638
659
673
665
681
747
1.4%
6.0%
101
110
115
127
135
146
7.7%
7.2%
2,110
2,338
2,788
2,972
3,002
3,251
12.1%
4.6%
396
466
606
676
671
741
19.5%
4.7%
381
403
411
417
408
421
3.1%
0.5%
41
50
55
63
64
69
15.3%
4.6%
Saia, Inc.
1,099
1,139
1,272
1,221
1,207
1,267
3.6%
1.8%
106
125
145
155
151
167
13.5%
3.6%
Swift Transportation Company Class A
3,493
4,118
4,299
4,229
4,075
4,298
6.6%
0.8%
528
577
583
611
600
651
5.0%
3.2%
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.
1,037
1,033
1,192
1,129
1,107
1,171
2.9%
1.8%
87
123
114
108
103
110
7.4%
0.9%
512
555
602
508
456
498
(0.3%)
(1.0%)
20
41
60
56
46
49
41.6%
(6.4%)
2,036
2,029
2,139
2,094
2,003
2,107
0.9%
0.3%
328
305
316
393
335
369
6.1%
4,851 $20,979
4,865 $22,289
5,069 $24,492
4,832 $24,279
4,694 $23,845
4,830 $25,109
(0.1%) 5.3%
(0.0%) 1.7%
198 $2,366
205 $2,613
197 $2,984
259 $3,349
314 $3,285
348 $3,582
9.3% 15.9%
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. XPO Logistics, Inc. Total
(25) $18,900
(17) $25,705
Trucking
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc.
USA Truck, Inc. Werner Enterprises, Inc. YRC Worldwide Inc. Total
(3.1%) 16.0% 2.6%
*Excluded from averages
PAGE | 9
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
PUBLIC COMPARABLES ($ in millions)
2012
2013
Revenue 2014 2015
2016E
2017P
Avg. Revenue Growth '12-15 '15-17P
2012
EBITDA 2014 2015
2013
2016E
Avg. EBITDA Growth '12-15 '15-17P
2017P
Transportation & Logistics
Rail and Rail Services American Railcar Industries, Inc.
$712
$751
$733
$889
$635
$526
7.7%
(23.1%)
$146
$179
$204
$273
$201
$170
23.2%
(21.1%)
Canadian National Railway Company
9,923
10,263
10,986
9,857
9,348
9,843
(0.2%)
(0.1%)
4,611
4,710
5,137
5,021
5,008
5,293
2.9%
2.7%
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited
5,697
5,952
5,994
5,246
4,958
5,199
(2.7%)
(0.5%)
1,800
2,340
2,640
2,431
2,550
2,720
10.5%
5.8%
11,756
12,026
12,669
11,811
10,811
11,263
0.2%
(2.3%)
4,422
4,534
4,764
4,792
4,489
4,777
2.7%
(0.2%) (30.0%)
CSX Corporation FreightCar America, Inc.
677
290
599
773
594
495
4.5%
(20.0%)
41
17
51
35
25
7.9%
Genesee & Wyoming, Inc. Class A
875
1,569
1,639
2,000
1,982
2,061
31.7%
1.5%
277
533
579
586
575
618
28.4%
2.7%
1,812
1,755
2,203
2,605
2,717
2,054
12.9%
(11.2%)
157
143
237
430
466
294
40.0%
(17.3%) 5.9%
Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Kansas City Southern Norfolk Southern Corporation Trinity Industries, Inc. Union Pacific Corporation Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation Total
(4)
2,239
2,369
2,577
2,419
2,374
2,541
2.6%
2.5%
872
962
1,106
1,098
1,123
1,233
8.0%
11,040
11,245
11,624
10,511
9,923
10,414
(1.6%)
(0.5%)
4,040
4,173
4,526
3,938
4,114
4,371
(0.8%)
5.4%
3,812
4,365
6,170
6,393
4,646
3,767
18.8%
(23.2%)
730
963
1,402
1,528
982
836
27.9%
(26.0%)
20,926
21,963
23,988
21,813
19,941
20,938
1.4%
(2.0%)
8,505
9,223
10,657
10,064
9,427
10,175
5.8%
2,391 $71,860
2,566 $75,115
3,044 $82,227
3,308 $77,625
3,224 $71,154
3,268 $72,367
11.4% 7.2%
(0.6%) (6.6%)
436 $26,035
489 $28,243
588 $31,857
701 $30,912
667 $29,634
687 $31,200
17.1% 14.5%
0.6% (1.0%) (6.0%)
Marine Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc.
$7,259
$6,335
$6,662
$4,232
$3,579
$4,045
(16.5%)
(2.2%)
$102
$84
$54
$81
$124
$140
(7.5%)
Costamare Inc.
386
414
484
490
458
449
8.3%
(4.4%)
246
267
330
325
315
308
9.8%
(2.7%)
Diana Shipping Inc.
221
164
176
158
107
146
(10.6%)
(3.8%)
121
55
52
28
(19)
(38.5%)
(44.7%) (7.0%)
9
31.4%
Kirby Corporation
2,113
2,242
2,566
2,148
1,824
1,880
0.5%
(6.4%)
507
582
646
573
470
496
4.2%
Matson, Inc.
1,560
1,637
1,714
1,885
1,946
2,030
6.5%
3.8%
175
182
203
298
295
319
19.5%
3.5%
Neptune Orient Lines Limited
9,512
8,831
8,617
5,383
4,729
5,095
(17.3%)
(2.7%)
90
142
353
321
225
504
53.0%
25.3%
Nordic American Tankers Limited
131
244
351
446
282
287
50.5%
(19.8%)
13
(7)
74
211
188
175
NM
Rand Logistics, Inc.
157
156
153
148
127
136
(1.8%)
(4.3%)
28
33
34
32
32
37
4.5%
SEACOR Holdings Inc.
1,581
1,247
1,319
1,055
887
913
(12.6%)
(7.0%)
235
197
245
150
136
178
(14.0%)
9.0%
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA Total
395 $23,314
325 $21,595
285 $22,327
313 $16,257
2,228 $16,166
2,256 $17,237
(7.5%) (0.0%)
NM (5.2%)
226 $1,743
170 $1,704
134 $2,125
186 $2,205
385 $2,151
362 $2,527
(6.3%) 2.7%
39.5% 5.2%
(8.8%) 6.0%
Transportation Equipment Accuride Corporation
$930
$643
$705
$686
$662
$670
(9.7%)
(1.1%)
$50
$43
$75
$77
$70
$74
15.6%
(1.9%)
7,224
6,769
6,617
6,060
5,770
5,877
(5.7%)
(1.5%)
753
706
705
654
631
653
(4.6%)
(0.1%)
Gentherm Incorporated
555
662
812
856
952
1,038
15.6%
10.1%
68
83
135
155
169
187
31.4%
9.7%
Spartan Motors, Inc.
471
470
507
550
577
602
5.4%
4.6%
16
6
10
0
15
23
NM
NM
1,462 $10,641
1,636 $10,179
1,863 $10,504
2,027 $10,180
1,934 $9,894
1,790 $9,977
11.5% 3.4%
(6.0%) 1.2%
110 $997
142 $981
161 $1,086
219 $1,105
232 $1,117
188 $1,124
25.7% 17.0%
(7.3%) 0.1%
Dana Holding Corporation
Wabash National Corporation Total
PAGE | 10
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JULY 2016
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS SOURCES 1.
Fact Set .
2.
MergerMarket.
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PAGE | 11