TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
www.harriswilliams.com Investment banking services are provided by Harris W illiams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris W illiams & Co. Ltd, which is authorised and regulat ed bythe Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co.is atrade name underwhich Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
WHAT WE’RE READING LOGISTICS | GLOBAL REFRIGERATED WAREHOUSE CAPACITY GROWS Global refrigerated warehouse capacity grew to 600 million cubic meters this year, according to the latest su rv ey by the Global Cold Chain Alliance, an industry group rep resenting temperature-controlled logistics companies. Much of the dev elopment occurred in emerging markets such as China, where refrigerated warehouse capacity grew 41%, between 2014 and 2016, to 107 million cubic meters. The cause of this growth in the emergin g markets is the growth of disposable income resultin g in a rise in demand for perishable goods like meat, dairy, and produce. Wall Street Journal
TRUCKING | TRUCKING HIRING REBOUNDED IN JULY Truckin g companies added 1,700 jobs last month, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday, reflecting recent growth reported in the manufacturin g sector, although the industry is still down 5,600 jobs from a y ear earlier. Analyst s said there is some stabilization in the tru ckin g market, which had struggled with ov ercapacity in recent months as weak manufacturin g activ ity, modest growth in consu mer spending, and high inv entory lev els dampened shipping demand. Wall Street Journal
MARINE | OCEAN CARRIERS LEAD DEBATE ON WORLD OF ‘BIG SHIPPING’ The recent opening of the expanded Panama Canal has helped pav e the way for a new era of ‘big shipping’ for North and Latin America, with potentially profound effects for container trade flows, ports and intermodal operations right across the region. As the first wav e of 8,000-10,000 TEU ‘Neopanamax’ v essels starts to flow through the widened Canal, and with M&A and alliance activ ity rapid ly reshaping the shipping landscape, ocean ca rriers will gather at the 16th TOC Americas Container Supply Chain con ference in Cancun, O ct 11-13, to take stock and discuss the future with other key supply chain members. Ocean carriers will use the Panama Canal expansion to reap much-needed synergies by combinin g east-west and north-south liner networks, u sing larger t onnage optimised v ia transshipment. American Journal of Transportation
RAIL | SERVICE REMAINS HIGH, INVESTMENT STILL STRONG While the rail and intermodal sectors had been en joyin g steady growth ov er the past few yea rs, these v ital sectors hav e not been immune to the freight slowdown being felt on the highways, in the air, and on the high sea s ov er the course of 2016. In fact, that’s been made clea r with the declining v olumes on a year-todate basis for freight rail, with intermodal following suit. Howev er, since more and more shippers hav e found strategic ways to integrate rail intermodal into their logistics operations, we’ll most likely see those v olumes begin to tick up ov er the course of the next six months as inv entories dwindle and the economy begins its slow ascent. Logistics Management
CONTENTS M &A TRANSACTIONS PUBLIC M ARKETS OVERVIEW STOCK PRICE PERFORM ANCE OUR GROUP
CONTACTS UNITED STATES Frank Mountcastle M anaging Director
[email protected] +1 (804) 915-0124
Jason Bass M anaging Director jbass@harrisw illiams.com +1 (804) 915-0132 Joe Conner M anaging Director jconner@harrisw illiams.com +1 (804) 915-0151 Jeff Burkett Director
[email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334 Jershon Jones Director jjones@harrisw illiams.com +1 (804) 932-1356 Jeff Kidd Vice President jkidd@harrisw illiams.com +1 (804) 915-0178 James O’Malley Vice President
[email protected] +1 (804) 915-0165
EUROPE Jeffery Perkins M anaging Director jperkins@harrisw illiams.com +49 (0) 69 3650638 00
AIR | GLOBAL AIR CARGO TRAFFIC IS RISING Worldwide air freight market demand rose 4.3% year-ov er-year (YOY) in Jun e – the sector’s biggest rise since Ap ril 2015 – according to I AT A’s Air Freight Market Analysis. Global air freight capacity in June, howev er, increased 4.9% YOY during the month, leading to a global freight load factor of 43.1%, exerting downward pressure on freight yields and rev enue. Year-to-date, global air freight demand has barely budged, growing 0.5% YOY, as freight capacity has in creased 6% YOY12 times faster than demand. Air Transport World www.harriswilliams.com
PAGE | 1
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
M&A TRANSACTIONS RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2 Date
Sector
8/9/2016*
Logistics
8/9/2016
Transportation
Target
Logistics
Acquirer
Prov ides freight and logistic serv ices.
Warburg Pincus LLC
Premier Trailer Leasing
Prov ides trailer leasing, rental assets and related v alue-added
Redw ood Capital
serv ices in the U.S.
I nv estments
Prov ides freight brokerage transportation serv ices.
United Express Serv ices,
Equipment 8/8/2016
Business Description
Blue-Grace Logistics
NFI I ndustries, I nc.
I nc. 8/8/2016
8/5/2016
Logistics
Rail
Abbey Logistics Group
Prov ides niche logistics solutions including the transportation of food
NorthEdge Capital LLP
Ltd.
products in liquid and pow der tankers across the UK and Northern Europe. Prov ides infrastructure maintenance, operations and management
Sterling Partners
DBi Serv ices
solutions in North America and Europe. 8/4/2016
Trucking
Walbon & Co., I nc.
Prov ides assets and operations related to trucking transportation
Kottke Trucking, I nc.
serv ices. 8/2/2016
Logistics
Transporeon GmbH
Operates w eb platforms for online logistics serv ices.
TPG Partner Holdings LP
8/2/2016
Logistics
Sandbox Enterprises LLC
Prov ides logistic solutions and technology for the transportation of
U.S. Silica Holdings, I nc.
proppant used in hydraulic fracturing. 8/1/2016
Logistics
7/28/2016
Logistics
7/27/2016
Air
Epic Logistics, I nc.
Prov ides LTL, truckload, container deliv ery, expedited, and air freight
EPES Logistics Serv ices,
serv ices.
I nc.
St. George Logistics
Prov ides outsourced container freight station serv ices.
Wind Point Partners
Amerijet
Prov ides a range of air cargo, ocean, and land freight transportation
ZS Fund LP
serv ices. 7/26/2016
Logistics
Apex Freight Serv ices,
Prov ides freight transportation and logistics serv ices.
Scott Logistics Corp.
I nternational Asset
Prov ides cloud-based solutions for global logistics and transportation
REZ-1
Systems
management.
NR Ev ans Logistics
Operates as a temperature controlled distribution company.
NFT Distribution Limited
I nc. 7/21/2016
7/19/2016
Logistics
Logistics
Limited 7/18/2016
Logistics
Span Alaska
Prov ides LCL freight consolidation and forw arding serv ices to Alaska.
Matson Logistics, I nc.
7/16/2016
Logistics
Farren I nternational, LLC
Prov ides transportation, rigging and related v alue-added solutions
EZE Truck Holdings, I nc.
such as w arehousing and kitting. 7/11/2016
Logistics
Scan Global Logistics
Prov ides international freight forw arding and logistics serv ices.
AEA I nv estors
7/7/2016
Logistics
Global Transportation
Prov ides freight forw arding and 3PL logistics.
American Fast Freight
Prov ides flatbed, heav y haul, dry v an, refrigerated and LTL
Transport I nv estments, I nc.
Serv ices, I nc. 7/5/2016
Logistics
Jones Motor Group
transportation serv ices.
*Denot es minorit y investment
PAGE | 2
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW TEV / LTM EBITDA
TEV / 2016E EBITDA
Logistics Providers
10.5x
Rail & Rail Services Marine Trucking
Transportation Equipment
9.2x 7.1x
5.0x
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2012 – 2015) Rail & Rail Services 5.3%
Logistics Providers
4.7% 3.4% (0.0%)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015) Transportation Equipment
17.0%
Trucking
15.8%
Rail & Rail Services
14.5%
Logistics Providers Marine
8.4% 2.7%
Logistics Providers
8.8x
7.0x
Trucking
5.5x
Transportation Equipment
5.5x
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2015 – 2017P) 7.2%
Trucking
Marine
9.3x
Marine
5.7x
Transportation Equipment
Rail & Rail Services
Logistics Providers Trucking
Transportation Equipment
5.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Marine
(5.7%)
Rail & Rail Services
(6.9%)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2015 – 2017P) Logistics Providers
Marine
11.8% 4.5%
Trucking
2.2%
Transportation Equipment
(3.3%)
Rail & Rail Services
(6.5%)
PAGE | 3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH)
MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
Transportation Equipment
13.2%
S&P 500
Trucking
4.5%
Logistics Providers
Rail & Rail Services
3.9%
Rail & Rail Services
4.8% 2.1% (6.5%)
S&P 500
2.3%
Marine
(22.9%)
Logistics Providers
2.0%
Trucking
(22.9%)
Transportation Equipment
(24.6%)
Marine (1.5%)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (Indexed t o August 11 th, 2015)
10% 5% 0% (5%)
(10%) (15%) (20%) (25%)
(30%) (35%) (40%) (45%) Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Logistics Providers
Trucking
Rail and Rail Services
Marine
Transportation Equipment
S&P 500 Index
Aug-16
PAGE | 4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
OUR GROUP Harris Williams & Co. is a leading adv isor to the t ransportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & Logistics Group serv es companies in a broad range of attractiv e niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), tru ck, rail, marine and air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotiv e and heav y duty v ehicle market.
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
has merged with a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
an operating company of has been acquired by
in a recapitalization by
has acquired has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by a portfolio company of
and
RCL Services Group in partnership with
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
and a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
has sold and
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
to
has been acquired by
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
NICHE TRANSPORTATION AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY VEHICLE AIR TRANSPORTATION
PAGE | 5
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
OUR FIRM Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities. Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence and collaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For more information, visit our website at www.harriswilliams.com/industries Aerospace, Defense & Government Services
Building Products & M aterials
Business Services
Consumer
Energy, Pow er & Infrastructure
Healthcare & Life Sciences
Industrials
Specialty Distribution
Technology, M edia & Telecom
Transportation Transportation & Logistics Logistics
HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO. OFFICE LOCATIONS UNITED STATES
EUROPE
Boston
Richmond (Headquarters)
Frankfurt
Cleveland
San Francisco
London
Tw o International Place 24th Floor Boston, M assachusetts 02110 Phone: +1 (617) 482-7501 1900 East 9th Street 20th Floor Cleveland, Ohio 44114 Phone: +1 (216) 689-2400
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PAGE | 6
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
PUBLIC COMPARABLES ($ in millions except per share data)
Stock Price Current
TEV
Stock Performance Change from Prior Month Prior Year
High
52-Week % of High
Aug-15
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of Feb-16 Current
TEV / EBITDA 2016E 2017P
Transportation & Logistics
Logistics Providers Agility Public Warehousing Co. K.S.C.
$1,868
$1.59
2.0%
(28.3%)
$2.21
71.7%
9.9x
5.5x
6.2x
1,311
14.55
6.8%
49.6%
15.53
93.7%
4.8x
5.1x
6.6x
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc.
NA 6.0x
NA 4.9x
2,615
35.02
(15.6%)
(22.5%)
57.77
60.6%
6.7x
8.6x
11.6x
6.1x
5.4x
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
10,644
69.03
(3.9%)
(0.1%)
76.10
90.7%
12.8x
11.6x
11.2x
11.3x
11.0x
Deutsche Post AG
45,048
31.67
13.0%
7.1%
31.73
99.8%
12.2x
10.3x
12.7x
8.3x
7.8x
DSV A/S
10,514
49.26
18.0%
30.9%
49.66
99.2%
13.5x
12.2x
18.6x
16.8x
13.9x
Echo Global Logistics, Inc Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. FedEx Corporation
925
25.87
10.5%
2.2%
28.49
90.8%
20.0x
15.1x
14.4x
11.6x
9.8x
8,418
51.30
3.0%
5.8%
52.58
97.6%
11.6x
10.1x
11.3x
11.4x
10.9x 6.3x
56,588
165.79
5.5%
0.3%
169.30
97.9%
10.3x
7.7x
9.2x
6.8x
Forward Air Corporation
1,430
46.13
0.6%
(4.3%)
50.47
91.4%
12.8x
9.6x
10.0x
9.6x
8.4x
Hub Group, Inc. Class A
1,381
41.16
1.9%
2.1%
42.27
97.4%
10.4x
8.1x
8.0x
8.1x
7.7x
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
10,295
82.18
(3.3%)
2.2%
89.43
91.9%
10.3x
9.1x
9.5x
9.3x
8.6x
Kuhne & Nagel International AG
16,588
142.07
1.6%
3.2%
147.27
96.5%
15.3x
14.0x
15.3x
14.3x
13.6x
Landstar System, Inc.
2,846
68.75
(2.3%)
0.2%
72.97
94.2%
10.9x
9.7x
11.0x
11.5x
10.7x
Panalpina Welttransport (Holding) AG
2,984
140.01
17.5%
15.6%
140.01
100.0%
13.4x
10.9x
16.7x
16.9x
13.0x
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. Ryder System, Inc. TransForce Inc. United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
693
7.68
(8.7%)
(68.0%)
24.45
31.4%
9.7x
6.5x
7.5x
6.7x
5.6x
9,080
65.80
0.4%
(26.5%)
90.16
73.0%
6.3x
5.1x
5.2x
5.1x
4.8x
2,582
20.04
7.0%
6.2%
20.69
96.8%
10.5x
8.0x
8.3x
7.8x
7.3x
107,419
110.90
0.8%
7.9%
111.83
99.2%
12.3x
10.3x
11.0x
10.2x
9.8x
611
14.10
2.9%
(30.6%)
20.99
67.2%
7.0x
5.7x
6.1x
6.2x
5.8x
9,929
36.40
39.5%
(5.6%)
41.28
88.2%
16.1x
10.5x
7.9x
6.8x
2.0%
2.1%
9.6x
10.5x
8.8x
8.1x
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. XPO Logistics, Inc. Median
93.7%
NM 10.7x
Trucking ArcBest Corporation
$473
$17.70
3.1%
(46.0%)
$34.10
51.9%
4.5x
2.9x
3.3x
3.5x
2.9x
Celadon Group, Inc.
736
7.29
(12.9%)
(64.2%)
20.67
35.3%
8.8x
6.4x
6.1x
5.4x
5.5x
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. Class A
610
22.54
15.2%
(10.8%)
25.96
86.8%
5.1x
4.5x
4.5x
5.4x
4.9x
Heartland Express, Inc.
1,510
19.06
5.9%
(9.2%)
21.95
86.8%
8.5x
8.3x
8.1x
7.8x
7.4x
Knight Transportation, Inc.
2,354
28.49
1.8%
3.6%
30.38
93.8%
8.3x
7.6x
8.5x
8.7x
8.0x
706
21.51
0.1%
15.3%
22.09
97.4%
5.1x
4.9x
5.4x
5.2x
4.9x
6,052
70.09
11.3%
(3.5%)
73.57
95.3%
9.7x
7.7x
8.9x
9.0x
8.2x
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc.
257
19.35
14.1%
(59.1%)
48.96
39.5%
6.7x
4.9x
4.4x
4.0x
3.8x
Saia, Inc.
890
29.36
11.9%
(29.1%)
42.12
69.7%
7.2x
4.8x
6.0x
5.6x
5.1x
3,606
18.94
12.4%
(16.8%)
23.47
80.7%
7.4x
6.0x
6.2x
6.2x
5.6x
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.
611
14.10
2.9%
(30.6%)
20.99
67.2%
7.0x
5.7x
6.1x
6.2x
5.8x
USA Truck, Inc.
241
12.56
(34.6%)
(38.2%)
23.25
54.0%
4.8x
4.7x
5.3x
6.0x
5.1x
1,836
23.58
(1.0%)
(16.2%)
29.23
80.7%
6.0x
5.3x
5.2x
5.4x
5.1x
1,117
11.49
16.6%
(41.9%)
20.00
4.5%
(22.9%)
Marten Transport, Ltd. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Swift Transportation Company Class A
Werner Enterprises, Inc. YRC Worldwide Inc. Median
57.5%
5.5x
4.1x
4.4x
3.7x
3.3x
75.2%
6.9x
5.1x
5.7x
5.5x
5.1x
PAGE | 7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
PUBLIC COMPARABLES ($ in millions except per share data)
Stock Price Current
TEV
Stock Performance Change from Prior Month Prior Year
High
52-Week % of High
Aug-15
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of Feb-16 Current
TEV / EBITDA 2016E 2017P
Transportation & Logistics
Rail and Rail Services American Railcar Industries, Inc.
$1,191
$42.19
0.7%
2.0%
$57.93
72.8%
5.3x
4.6x
5.0x
6.0x
6.8x
Canadian National Railway Company
56,957
63.33
6.3%
2.6%
66.26
95.6%
10.9x
10.1x
11.6x
11.5x
10.8x
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited
28,859
146.28
9.8%
(8.1%)
160.27
91.3%
11.7x
10.7x
12.4x
11.3x
10.6x
CSX Corporation
36,454
28.08
5.3%
(4.9%)
30.53
92.0%
7.8x
6.9x
8.1x
8.2x
7.7x
88
14.00
(7.5%)
(39.0%)
24.95
56.1%
6.3x
2.3x
1.8x
4.0x
4.2x
Genesee & Wyoming, Inc. Class A
5,879
64.32
4.5%
(13.1%)
76.34
84.3%
11.1x
9.0x
10.3x
10.3x
9.6x
Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
1,257
31.65
3.4%
(30.3%)
46.16
68.6%
5.3x
2.5x
2.5x
2.8x
4.2x
Kansas City Southern
13,076
97.26
7.6%
(0.6%)
100.40
96.9%
11.7x
10.2x
11.5x
11.3x
10.4x
Norfolk Southern Corporation
35,773
89.48
2.9%
10.0%
98.75
90.6%
7.8x
8.0x
8.9x
8.8x
8.2x
6,143
23.23
15.0%
(17.9%)
30.38
76.5%
5.1x
3.9x
4.9x
6.1x
6.8x
FreightCar America, Inc.
Trinity Industries, Inc. Union Pacific Corporation
91,122
92.96
1.7%
0.2%
98.28
94.6%
8.7x
7.9x
9.6x
9.8x
9.1x
6,719
71.56
(0.4%)
(27.8%)
102.41
69.9%
15.2x
9.5x
9.8x
10.7x
10.1x
3.9%
(6.5%)
87.4%
8.3x
8.0x
9.2x
9.3x
8.7x
10.7x
11.6x
7.1x
6.6x
5.9x
6.0x
6.5x
7.0x
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation Median Marine Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. Costamare Inc. Diana Shipping Inc. Kirby Corporation
$937
$7.78
26.7%
(32.2%)
$11.85
65.7%
2,069
9.07
12.8%
(43.3%)
16.50
55.0%
670
2.48
(2.4%)
(64.6%)
7.61
32.6%
3,704
54.19
(13.3%)
(24.0%)
73.25
74.0%
NM 8.6x NM 7.7x
NM
8.5x
8.3x
6.9x
6.6x
6.1x
2,011
36.12
7.8%
(11.3%)
53.18
67.9%
9.5x
7.2x
5,347
0.97
0.5%
57.7%
0.98
99.3%
9.6x
15.6x
Nordic American Tankers Limited
1,389
12.36
(11.2%)
(14.0%)
17.02
72.6%
9.6x
6.1x
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA
NM
7.2x
Matson, Inc.
Rand Logistics, Inc.
NM
6.4x
Neptune Orient Lines Limited
SEACOR Holdings Inc.
NM
NM 6.5x
NM 7.8x
9.4x 8.7x
225
0.98
(4.9%)
(63.7%)
2.85
34.4%
7.4x
7.6x
6.9x
6.8x
1,455
55.02
(1.8%)
(14.6%)
67.60
81.4%
9.2x
8.6x
11.1x
12.8x
1,855
2.36
(1.3%)
(21.7%)
5.57
42.3%
19.6x
11.9x
11.2x
4.6x
5.1x
(1.5%)
(22.9%)
66.8%
9.3x
7.6x
7.1x
7.0x
7.5x
Median
NA 8.1x
Transportation Equipment $373
$1.46
13.2%
(62.8%)
$3.93
37.2%
6.0x
4.5x
5.5x
5.5x
6.1x
Dana Incorporated
Accuride Corporation
2,900
13.92
27.7%
(24.6%)
18.92
73.6%
5.3x
4.0x
4.5x
4.5x
4.4x
Gentherm Incorporated
1,161
31.43
(12.1%)
(35.2%)
51.71
60.8%
12.7x
8.6x
7.4x
283
9.21
33.5%
92.3%
9.41
97.9%
12.4x
994
13.39
0.2%
(1.9%)
14.97
13.2%
(24.6%)
Spartan Motors, Inc. Wabash National Corporation Median
NM
NM
7.7x
7.0x
15.7x
10.8x
89.4%
6.6x
4.3x
3.9x
4.0x
5.0x
73.6%
6.6x
4.4x
5.0x
5.5x
6.1x
PAGE | 8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
PUBLIC COMPARABLES ($ in millions)
2012
2013
Revenue 2014 2015
$5,061
$4,846
$4,767
$4,330
607
580
590
619
2016E
2017P
Avg. Revenue Growth '12-15 '15-17P
2012
2013
EBITDA 2014 2015
2016E
2017P
Avg. EBITDA Growth '12-15 '15-17P
Transportation & Logistics
Logistics Providers Agility Public Warehousing Co. K.S.C. Air Transport Services Group, Inc. Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc.
NA 717
NA
$258
$289
$276
$292
4.2%
NA
794
NA
(5.1%) 0.6%
13.2%
157
158
179
198
218
NA
270
NA
8.0%
16.7% 29.2%
1,646
1,657
1,799
1,823
1,915
2,040
3.5%
5.8%
296
292
327
271
397
453
(2.9%)
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
11,359
12,752
13,470
13,476
12,958
13,831
5.9%
1.3%
723
740
805
925
940
971
8.5%
2.5%
Deutsche Post AG
71,303
73,132
75,117
65,681
66,347
68,153
(2.7%)
1.9%
3,517
3,887
4,198
2,984
5,447
5,762
(5.3%)
39.0%
7,750
8,137
8,645
7,563
10,179
10,739
(0.8%)
19.2%
530
543
560
532
634
764
0.1%
19.9%
758
884
1,173
1,512
1,736
2,029
25.9%
15.8%
34
34
44
54
80
92
16.5%
30.8%
5,981
6,080
6,565
6,617
6,053
6,371
3.4%
(1.9%)
571
600
644
767
741
773
10.4%
0.3%
44,287
45,567
47,453
50,365
60,344
62,684
4.4%
11.6%
5,597
6,033
4,951
6,165
8,247
8,900
3.3%
20.2%
DSV A/S Echo Global Logistics, Inc Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. FedEx Corporation Forward Air Corporation
584
652
781
959
987
1,046
18.0%
4.4%
105
109
128
128
152
171
7.0%
15.4%
Hub Group, Inc. Class A
3,124
3,374
3,571
3,526
3,522
3,734
4.1%
2.9%
134
137
136
154
170
179
4.8%
7.8%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
5,055
5,585
6,165
6,188
6,575
7,181
7.0%
7.7%
759
825
920
1,054
1,105
1,200
11.6%
6.7%
Kuhne & Nagel International AG
18,248
18,529
19,118
17,376
20,935
21,682
(1.6%)
11.7%
956
1,028
1,073
1,062
1,164
1,223
3.6%
7.3%
Landstar System, Inc.
2,793
2,665
3,185
3,321
3,066
3,255
5.9%
(1.0%)
232
203
276
269
247
268
5.1%
(0.3%)
Panalpina Welttransport (Holding) AG
7,053
7,289
7,327
6,081
5,581
5,798
(4.8%)
(2.4%)
102
172
205
179
181
232
20.7%
13.7%
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc.
1,073
1,361
1,873
1,995
1,929
2,011
23.0%
0.4%
81
103
125
130
104
124
17.0%
(2.3%)
Ryder System, Inc.
6,257
6,419
6,639
6,572
6,745
7,036
1.7%
3.5%
1,299
1,361
1,505
1,660
1,799
1,875
8.5%
6.3%
TransForce Inc.
3,141
3,018
3,363
3,150
2,996
3,067
0.1%
(1.3%)
386
319
372
332
331
356
(4.9%)
3.4%
54,064
55,491
58,256
58,050
60,666
63,503
2.4%
4.6%
3,100
8,765
6,889
9,429
10,482
10,969
44.9%
7.9%
1,037
1,033
1,192
1,129
1,093
1,117
2.9%
(0.5%)
87
123
114
108
100
109
7.4%
0.4%
279 $251,461
702 $259,756
2,357 $273,405
7,623 $267,955
14,850 $289,193
15,844 $301,915
NM 4.7%
NM 5.1%
92 $23,820
474 $27,169
1,268 $33,806
1,464 $36,153
NM 8.4%
NM 11.8%
ArcBest Corporation
$2,066
$2,300
$2,613
$2,667
$2,641
$2,769
8.9%
1.9%
$71
$107
$154
$167
$134
$160
33.0%
(2.1%)
Celadon Group, Inc.
599
614
742
901
1,057
1,065
14.6%
8.7%
94
99
87
117
140
136
7.7%
7.4%
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. Class A
674
685
719
724
666
701
2.4%
(1.6%)
63
63
89
143
111
124
31.2%
(7.0%)
Heartland Express, Inc.
546
582
871
736
652
677
10.5%
(4.1%)
138
149
208
193
194
202
12.0%
2.3%
Knight Transportation, Inc.
936
969
1,102
1,183
1,112
1,194
8.1%
0.5%
193
193
256
281
270
295
13.3%
2.4%
Marten Transport, Ltd.
638
659
673
665
662
714
1.4%
3.6%
101
110
115
127
138
144
7.7%
6.8%
2,110
2,338
2,788
2,972
2,992
3,213
12.1%
4.0%
396
466
606
676
675
735
19.5%
4.3%
381
403
411
417
436
463
3.1%
5.4%
41
50
55
63
65
68
15.3%
4.2%
Saia, Inc.
1,099
1,139
1,272
1,221
1,207
1,260
3.6%
1.6%
106
125
145
155
156
174
13.5%
5.7%
Swift Transportation Company Class A
3,493
4,118
4,299
4,229
4,105
4,290
6.6%
0.7%
528
577
583
611
583
644
5.0%
2.6%
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.
1,037
1,033
1,192
1,129
1,093
1,117
2.9%
(0.5%)
87
123
114
108
100
109
7.4%
0.4%
512
555
602
508
446
472
(0.3%)
(3.6%)
20
41
60
56
40
46
41.6%
(8.8%)
2,036
2,029
2,139
2,094
1,992
2,079
0.9%
(0.3%)
318
295
316
370
334
359
5.2%
4,851 $20,979
4,865 $22,289
5,069 $24,492
4,832 $24,279
4,716 $23,777
4,869 $24,883
(0.1%) 5.3%
0.4% 1.2%
198 $2,355
205 $2,603
197 $2,984
259 $3,326
299 $3,236
333 $3,530
9.3% 15.8%
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. XPO Logistics, Inc. Total
(25) $18,900
(17) $25,705
Trucking
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc.
USA Truck, Inc. Werner Enterprises, Inc. YRC Worldwide Inc. Total
(1.4%) 13.5% 2.2%
*Excluded from averages
PAGE | 9
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
PUBLIC COMPARABLES ($ in millions)
2012
2013
Revenue 2014 2015
2016E
2017P
Avg. Revenue Growth '12-15 '15-17P
2012
EBITDA 2014 2015
2013
2016E
Avg. EBITDA Growth '12-15 '15-17P
2017P
Transportation & Logistics
Rail and Rail Services $712
$751
$733
$889
$628
$540
7.7%
(22.1%)
$146
$179
$204
$273
$201
$175
23.2%
Canadian National Railway Company
American Railcar Industries, Inc.
9,923
10,263
10,986
9,857
9,197
9,688
(0.2%)
(0.9%)
4,611
4,710
5,137
5,021
4,976
5,226
2.9%
2.0%
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited
5,697
5,952
5,994
5,246
4,911
5,183
(2.7%)
(0.6%)
1,800
2,340
2,640
2,431
2,549
2,723
10.5%
5.8%
11,756
12,026
12,669
11,811
10,803
11,268
0.2%
(2.3%)
4,422
4,534
4,764
4,792
4,489
4,756
2.7%
(0.4%)
677
290
599
773
541
462
4.5%
(22.7%)
41
17
51
21
22
7.9%
(34.2%)
CSX Corporation FreightCar America, Inc. Genesee & Wyoming, Inc. Class A Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Kansas City Southern Norfolk Southern Corporation Trinity Industries, Inc. Union Pacific Corporation Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation Total
(4)
(19.9%)
875
1,569
1,639
2,000
1,975
2,050
31.7%
1.2%
277
533
579
586
567
608
28.4%
1.9%
1,812
1,755
2,203
2,605
2,701
2,074
12.9%
(10.8%)
157
143
237
430
462
294
40.0%
(17.3%)
2,239
2,369
2,577
2,419
2,341
2,504
2.6%
1.8%
11,040
11,245
11,624
10,511
9,868
10,353
(1.6%)
(0.8%)
872
962
1,106
1,098
1,159
1,263
8.0%
7.2%
4,040
4,173
4,526
3,938
4,065
4,338
(0.8%)
5.0% (23.7%)
3,812
4,365
6,170
6,393
4,742
4,149
18.8%
(19.4%)
730
963
1,402
1,528
998
890
27.9%
20,926
21,963
23,988
21,813
19,832
20,843
1.4%
(2.2%)
8,505
9,223
10,657
10,064
9,346
10,032
5.8%
(0.2%)
2,391 $71,860
2,566 $75,115
3,044 $82,227
3,308 $77,625
2,970 $70,509
3,057 $72,171
11.4% 7.2%
(3.9%) (6.9%)
436 $26,035
489 $28,243
588 $31,857
701 $30,912
616 $29,449
641 $30,969
17.1% 14.5%
(4.3%) (6.5%)
Marine $7,259
$6,335
$6,662
$4,232
$3,917
$4,588
(16.5%)
4.1%
$102
$84
$54
$81
$137
$141
(7.5%)
Costamare Inc.
Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc.
386
414
484
490
458
439
8.3%
(5.4%)
246
267
330
325
318
303
9.8%
(3.5%)
Diana Shipping Inc.
221
164
176
158
103
137
(10.6%)
(6.8%)
121
55
52
28
(15)
(38.5%)
(51.5%) (12.7%)
7
31.9%
Kirby Corporation
2,113
2,242
2,566
2,148
1,719
1,738
0.5%
(10.0%)
507
582
646
573
434
436
4.2%
Matson, Inc.
1,560
1,637
1,714
1,885
1,942
2,053
6.5%
4.4%
175
182
203
298
298
330
19.5%
5.4%
Neptune Orient Lines Limited
9,512
8,831
8,617
5,383
4,698
5,001
(17.3%)
(3.6%)
90
142
353
321
263
579
53.0%
34.3%
270
50.5%
166
Nordic American Tankers Limited
131
244
351
446
265
Rand Logistics, Inc.
157
156
153
148
126
SEACOR Holdings Inc.
1,581
1,247
1,319
1,055
851
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA Total
395 $23,314
325 $21,595
285 $22,327
313 $16,257
2,169 $16,247
(22.2%)
13
(7)
74
211
173
(1.8%)
NA
28
33
34
32
33
928
(12.6%)
(6.2%)
235
197
245
150
114
180
(14.0%)
9.6%
2,225 $17,379
(7.5%) (0.0%)
NM (5.7%)
226 $1,743
170 $1,704
134 $2,125
186 $2,205
360 $2,115
357 $2,499
(6.3%) 2.7%
38.5% 4.5% (10.3%)
NA
NA
NM 4.5%
(11.2%) NA
Transportation Equipment Accuride Corporation Dana Incorporated Gentherm Incorporated Spartan Motors, Inc. Wabash National Corporation Total
$930
$643
$705
$686
$642
$648
(9.7%)
(2.8%)
$50
$43
$75
$77
$68
$62
15.6%
7,224
6,769
6,617
6,060
5,791
5,956
(5.7%)
(0.9%)
753
706
705
654
640
659
(4.6%)
0.4%
555
662
812
856
935
1,013
15.6%
8.7%
68
83
135
155
151
165
31.4%
3.2%
471
470
507
550
587
604
5.4%
4.8%
1,462 $10,641
1,636 $10,179
1,863 $10,504
2,027 $10,180
1,860 $9,814
1,659 $9,880
11.5% 3.4%
(9.5%) 0.1%
16
6
10
0
18
26
NM
NM
110 $997
142 $981
161 $1,086
219 $1,105
249 $1,126
191 $1,104
25.7% 17.0%
(6.6%) (3.3%)
PAGE | 10
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY UPDATE │ AUGUST 2016
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS SOURCES 1.
Fact Set .
2.
MergerMarket.
3.
Pit chbook.
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PAGE | 11