Goldman Sachs Conference Philippe Brassac CEO June 9th 2016
DISCLAIMER
This presentation may include prospective information on the Group, supplied as information on trends. This data does not represent forecasts within the meaning of European Regulation 809/2004 of 29 April 2004 (chapter 1, article 2, § 10). This information was developed from scenarios based on a number of economic assumptions for a given competitive and regulatory environment. Therefore, these assumptions are by nature subject to random factors that could cause actual results to differ from projections. Likewise, the financial statements are based on estimates, particularly in calculating market value and asset depreciation. Readers must take all these risk factors and uncertainties into consideration before making their own judgement. The figures presented are not audited. The figures presented have been prepared in accordance with IFRS as adopted in the European Union and applicable at that date, and with prudential regulations currently in force. This financial information does not constitute a set of financial statements for an interim period as defined by IAS 34 “Interim Financial Reporting” and it has not been audited.
Throughout the document, data on 2015 results is presented pro forma: transfer of CACEIS from Asset Gathering to Large Customers, transfer of Insurance Switch from the Corporate centre to Insurance and reclassification of the contribution of the Regional Banks under IFRS5. Within Crédit Agricole S.A., “Retail banking” now covers only LCL and International retail banking.
Note: The Crédit Agricole Group scope of consolidation comprises: the Regional Banks, the Local Banks and Crédit Agricole S.A. and their subsidiaries. This is the scope of consolidation that has been privileged by the competent authorities to assess the Group’s situation, notably in the 2015 Balance sheet assessment exercise Crédit Agricole S.A. is the listed entity. It notably owns the subsidiaries of its business lines (French retail banking, International retail banking, Asset gathering, Specialised financial services, and Corporate and investment banking). Crédit Agricole S.A. also owns circa 25% of the Regional Banks up to the completion of the intragroup reclassification of CCI/CCAs held by Crédit Agricole S.A. in the Regional Banks, expected in the third quarter of 2016.
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GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016 GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – PARIS, JUNE 9 2016
A STRATEGIC AMBITION EMBEDDED IN FOUR PRIORITIES
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2
4
3
Simplify the Group's capital structure
Roll out an ambitious Customer Project, enhanced by the digital transformation
Strengthen the Group's growth momentum in its core business lines
Transform the Group to sustainably improve our industrial efficiency
GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016
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PROJECT TO SIMPLIFY THE GROUP’S STRUCTURE Change in the Crédit Agricole Group structure
Current Crédit Agricole Group structure Local Banks of Crédit Agricole and other members
mutual shares (with voting right) and CCAs (no voting right)
Local Banks of Crédit Agricole and other members
Holders of CCI/CCAs
75% of capital
RB RB RB 1 2 3
43.3% (3)
56.7% (3)
Mutual share(s)(1)
~25% (through 100%(2) CCI/CCAs (4))
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RB 38
38 Regional Banks (excl. RB of Corsica)(2)
25% of capital under the form of CCI/CCAs (no voting right) + Switch Guarantee
100% SAS Rue la Boétie 56.7% (3)
Crédit Agricole S.A. (1) (2) (3) (4)
SACAM Mutualisation
RB RB RB 1 2 3
RB 38
100% SAS Rue la Boétie
Holders of CCI/CCAs
CCIs (no voting right)
38 Regional Banks (excl. RB of Corsica)(2)
Float
New Crédit Agricole Group structure
Float
43.3% (3)
Crédit Agricole S.A.
CASA holds at least one mutual share (or a limited number of mutual shares) in each of the Regional Banks, conferring it the status of mutual shareholder and therefore the right to hold CCAs RB of Corsica, fully owned by Crédit Agricole S.A., will also be a shareholder of SACAM Mutualisation As of December 31 2015 The scope of the transaction includes all CCI/CCAs held by CASA except for (i) securities held by Predica, (ii) the portion of CCI/CCAs held in excess of 50% of the capital of 4 Regional Banks (Brie Picardie, Loire Haute-Loire, Nord de France and Toulouse31). This excess part will be retained by Crédit Agricole S.A. to comply with regulations regarding the capital structure of the Regional Banks, which authorise the issuance of CCI/CCAs above 50% only if they are held by the Central body (in total, residual value of €0.5bn) and (iii) CCIs potentially detained through liquidity schemes
GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016
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PROJECT TO SIMPLIFY THE GROUP'S STRUCTURE Impacts on the financial situation of the Group and CASA
Transaction overall neutral at Crédit Agricole Group level
On net income On regulatory ratios On liquidity position (Intragroup funding of the transaction) No change in the scope of tax consolidation
Immediate positive impact on the capital position of Crédit Agricole S.A.
Positive impact of 41bps Pro forma fully-loaded 2015 CET1 ratio ≥ 11%: target achieved one year ahead of schedule, with better quality of capital
Limited effect on net EPS of Crédit Agricole S.A
Impact on net income, excluding one-time items, of around -€470m Elimination of the dilutive effect of scrip dividend, around 5% annually1
Limited impact for the Regional Banks
Regulatory situation sufficiently strong to largely absorb the impact of the transaction (average pro forma 2015 CET1 ratio of 17.3%)
1. Relative to a situation in which an option to pay a scrip dividend would have been proposed with respect to the 2016 annual result. Earnings-enhancement calculation based on the assumption that the take-up rate for the scrip dividend would be the same as that observed in 2015
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GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016
PROJECT TO SIMPLIFY THE GROUP'S STRUCTURE Stability of Crédit Agricole S.A. business mix
A balanced business mix which remained very largely dominated by retail banking activities until now and this will not significantly change between 2015 (pro forma) and 2019 Revenues: CASA business mix (excluding Corporate Centre) in %
Net income Group share: CASA business mix (excluding Corporate Centre) in % (including Regional Banks in 2015 underlying)
(excluding Regional Banks1)
9%
14%
14%
14%
27%
27%
27%
26%
25%
26%
33%
34%
33%
36%
2015 underlying
2015 underlying pro forma
2019
2015 underlying
13%
13%
29%
30%
38%
35%
20%
22%
2015 underlying pro forma
2019
22%
Retail banking
Asset gathering
33%
Specialised financial services
1. The share of Crédit Agricole S.A. in the Regional Banks was equity-accounted until 2015
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GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016
Large customers (CACIB and CACEIS)
THE GROUP'S DNA A Customer-focused Universal banking model Recognised ability to distribute products created by our specialised business lines through our retail banking networks to meet our customer needs €7.8bn of revenue synergies in 2015 for Crédit Agricole Group An average of 9 products per demand deposit account1 for Regional Bank customers at end 2015
Asset gathering
Retail banking
Specialised financial services
Large customers
1. Source: Regional Bank customer database
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GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016
ROLL OUT AN AMBITIOUS CUSTOMER PROJECT, ENHANCED BY THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION A Customer-Focused Universal banking model
A model based on the expertise of all our business lines, on the excellence and the know-how required to meet the financial and wealth management needs of our customers A «Full Multi-Channel » distribution model A model that enables our customers to choose how and when they interact with their bank and switch easily between the various channels % of customers1
BRANCH Prefers to have a face-to-face relationship with his adviser
~10%
MULTI-CHANNEL Attached to the simplicity of digital for some transactions and the extra value provided by an adviser
DIGITAL Attached to the freedom and simplicity of digital banking
~70% ~20%
1. source: McKinsey “Retail distribution 2015: full digitalisation with a human touch”; estimation of banking customer behaviours on complex operations
A strategic investment in customer relationships An acceleration of the digital transformation and foster innovation A new wealth advisory approach with a renowned sales/advisory method of customer advisers New products and services 8
GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016
STRENGTHEN THE GROUP'S GROWTH MOMENTUM Business line strategies RONE 20191 >16%
Retail Banking
Accelerate the pace of customer capture
RONE 20191 >25%
Asset gathering
Growth in the capital allocated to the Asset gathering business line
Continue our multi-product strategy
Pursuit of value-creating acquisitions Reinforce business in specialised markets Digital transformation and branch network upgrade
Increase in costs to support growth, mainly in insurance :~ +2% p.a. business line costs
Cost control
RONE 20191 >13%
Primarily in asset management And, to a lesser extent, in wealth management
Specialised financial services
RONE 20191 >11%
Large customers
Further integration with the Group's retail banks Support the Group’s networks Increase sales of insurance product at CACF
Selectively relaunch profitable production in standalone business Direct channel Partnerships and car finance joint ventures
Operating optimisation with sustained cost-cutting efforts
A coherent business line serving the Group generating additional synergies Support the development of the Regional Banks and Cariparma in the mid-corp segment Develop market activities with corporate and local authority customers of the Regional Banks and LCL Servicing on market transactions for other Group entities
… whilst maintaining a low risk profile
1. RoNE calculated as the net income (post tax) on normative equity, on the basis of a capital allocation tailored to the need and risks of each business line
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GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016
TRANSFORM THE GROUP TO SUSTAINABLY IMPROVE OUR INDUSTRIAL EFFICIENCY
A €900m operational efficiency programme for Crédit Agricole S.A. An ambitious investment programme of €7.7bn over 4 years1 to prepare for the future Annual cost savings by 2019 (€m) 900
Cumulative investment over the plan period (€bn)
900
37%
Retail Banking
16%
Asset gathering Specialised financial services Large customers
10%
26%
Corporate Centre
11% CASA cost savings by business line
36%
IT transformation
35%
Operational optimisation and efficiency
Control of non IT purchase Simplification of organisation structures
16% 13% CASA cost savings by lever
4.4
~ €1bn in strengthening the Group's compliance and risk mitigation
3.3
Regional Banks
Industrial efficiency
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Total
Regulatory
- 6 pts of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s cost/income ratio by 2019 i.e. a cost/income ratio < 60% in 2019 10
7.7
€1.8bn in improving industrial efficiency and cutting costs in all business lines
GOLDMAN SACHS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2016
Developing the business line and digital transformation
€4.9bn in developing the business lines and digital transformation (of which ~80% for Retail banking)
1. Cumulative investments. Investments on a cash-out basis
2019 FINANCIAL TARGETS
Crédit Agricole Group
Of which Crédit Agricole S.A.
Revenue growth1
>+1.5%
>+2.5%
2019 cost / income ratio