Deutsche Bank - November 08&09, 2016
Zurich & Geneva Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
A business model strongly linked to consumption Net sales by drivers PC RT
49% Consumers
29%
PC OE
11 % Autos
Breakdown of 2015 Net sales
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Manufacturing
11% Commodities
A stronger Group ● RS1 volume growth
● RS2 operating margin
● Margin by RS
● Structural FCF and ROCE
* Before non-recurring items
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
November 08&09, 2016
Deutsche Bank
Michelin’s Strategy
4
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Michelin’s value creation strategy Four domains of growth for 2016-2020 ● Provide our customers with tires that truly meet their needs Increase by 20% our revenue from our tire business
● Develop tire-related services and solutions that further enhance mobility Double revenue in our services and solutions business
● Strengthen all the activities that enable our customers to enjoy unique mobility experience Triple the revenue generated by these mobility experience businesses
● Leverage our expertise in high-technology materials – in particular those involving elastomers Be proactive and assert our technological leadership in the area of high technology materials
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
MICHELIN CrossClimate, “the ideal ‘all-season’ tire”
“There is only one candidate that meets all the requirements of an ideal, uncompromising ‘all-season’ tire,” says
● MICHELIN summer tire with winter certification
magazine, “and that’s the
MICHELIN CrossClimate.”
● Best ‘all-season’ tire ranked by
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Innovation aimed at delivering total performance Up to 32% more longevity vs Tier 1 Competitors in Europe (MICHELIN = base 100) MICHELIN EnergyTM MICHELIN Primacy
MICHELIN Pilot Sport
MICHELIN Agilis
MICHELIN Alpin
MICHELIN CrossClimate
Premium competitors average result
70 Broadline 1
80
71
70
Sport 3
Light truck 4
Winter 5
68 High Performance 2
MICHELIN CrossClimate: “Total cost of ownership champion” according to Source : Ranking based on the results of tests conducted on several times sizes by independant test centers (Dekra 2012-2013-2014, TÜV SUD Product Service 2010-2011) and press tests (Autobild 2011-2014) (1) Broadline on 14"/15"/16" – (2) High Performance on 16"/17" – (3) Sport on 18" – (4) Light truck on 16" – (5) Winter on 15"/16"/17" – (6)Test conducted by TÜV SUD, in July and August 2016, on dimension 205/55R16 on VW Golf 7 vs Premium A/S Competitors
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
83 All-Season 6
100
J.D. Power OE Tire Award History ● Since 1989 in the United States, Michelin and BFGoodrich have won 63 of the 76 awards for OE Tire Satisfaction ● This highlights Michelin’s commitment to total performance throughout the life of the tire
5x more than the competition combined!
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Outperforming new products allowing increased mining productivity 3 MAJOR INNOVATIONS: NEW COMPOUNDS
+
MICHELIN XDR 250 50/80 R 57 ● The most productive tire with at least 25% more TKPH* … with no trade-off on tire life
MICHELIN XDR 3 40.00 R 57
* Ton Kilometer Per Hour
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
A NEW TREAD PATTERN
+ CORROSION-PROOF CABLES
Products, distribution and services matching customer needs to capture growth opportunities
Services
• Offering innovative services to improve mobility Distribution
Product offer
Innovation
• Reinforcing our market access through a vast worldwide dealer network and new distribution channels • Developing profitable Tier 2 / Tier 3 brands to better serve Distribution • Strengthening the MICHELIN brand technological leadership CROSSCLIMATE
10
EFFITIRE™
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
TWEEL
New materials play a dominant role in our innovation For several reasons: Strong impact on the performances of our products
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Less industrial intrusiveness
Aligned with sustainable development ambitions
2017-2020 levers ● Above market growth in all divisions and positive product mix ● Increased Net Sales and EBIT contribution from service and solutions ● Acceleration in competitiveness ambition ● Capital expenditure in line with scenario already announced ● Initiatives to foster a new Group mindset ─ Putting our customers at the heart of our business ─ Leveraging the digital revolution ─ Simplifying our structures and processes ─ Empowering employees
12
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
November 08&09, 2016
Deutsche Bank
2020 ambitious value creation targets
13
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2015-2020 scenario: a growing worldwide demand PC OE&RT market projection
TB OE&RT market projection
(in millions of units)
(Radial & Bias in millions of units)
CAGR ~ 2.5%
1.690
o/w ≥17’ CAGR ~ 7%
CAGR ~ 1.5%
200
184
1.495
2015
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2020e
2015
2020e
Agriculture: a slow worldwide growth assuming stable grain prices (base 100 in 2015, in tonnes)
~104 / 108
100
~100
~100
2015
2016e
2017e
* OE & RT in Europe and North America
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2020e
Mining: 2016 last year of destocking (base 100 in 2009, in tonnes)
134
138
121 100
2009
16
111
109
2010
~115 / 125
121
2011
2012
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2013
2014
2015
~101
2016e
~105 / 115
2017e
2020e
New 2017 – 2020 Competitiveness Plan: accelerating to ~€300m per annum
Plan 2012-2016 In €m
Plan 2007-2010 achieved
Target: €1,200m
Plan 2017-2020 2012-2015 achieved
2016(e)
SG&A
251
421
500/550
Manufacturing Costs
406
394
450/500
Materials
365
149
150/200
1,022
964
Total
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
~250
~1,200
Investing to create value Succeed in our priority Capex and M&A investment to capture growth ● In the supply chain, to improve customer services (IS, logistics centers)
Reducing the gap between capital expenditure and depreciation (in € bn, at constant exchange rates) 1.8
1.7 to 1.8 1.6 to 1.7
● In growing markets: PC premium tires, in North America and in Asia ● In Digital services
1.6 to 1.7 1.5
1.4
1.4
2016e
2017e
1.3
● In raw materials and semi-finished products
2015 CAPEX
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Depreciation
2020e
2015-2020 organic scenario: Consistency of 2020 financial targets In € millions
PC&TB abovemarket growth Mining market rebound
Manufacturing efficiency offsetting inflation
SG&A efficiency beating inflation
Increased contribution services & solutions
>> 3,000 D&A
Manufacturing
2,577
Services
SG&A
Volume & Mix
2015
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2020e
Reporting segment operating margin guidance* for 2016-2020
2016-2020 target ranges**
RS1
RS2
RS3
Between 11% and 15%
Between 9% and 13%
Between 17% and 24%
* From recurring activities ** At constant scope of consolidation and raw materials prices, and with markets expanding by a CAGR of 2.5% in PC tires and of 1.5% in Truck tires
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2020: ambitious value creation targets Deliver over €1bn of structural Free cash flow from 2020*
Deliver a ROCE (after tax) ≥ 15% from 2020*
(in € millions)
(in %) 17.3%
>>1,000 749
≥ 21%
17.6%
15.8%
833 10.0%
517 10.9%
11.9%
12.2%
≥15%
5.4% 2011
2013
2015
2020 target*
2009
2011
2013
ROCE after tax * At constant scope of consolidation
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
ROCE before tax
2015
2020 target*
2015-2016 shareholder return: €978m in dividends and €750m in share buybacks ● Share buyback program ─ €451m committed in 2015 ─ €150m committed in H1 2016 1,757,440 shares bought back at an average price of €85.35
─ A new €150m tranche launched in H2 2016 As of September end, 841,490 shares bought back at an average price of €93.27
● Total Shareholder Return €240
─ At least 35% of net earnings excluding non recurring items
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
€222
€220 €200 €180
€184
€185 €169
€165
€160
€147
€160
€151
€140 €120
● Pay-out commitment
€221
€120
€100 €100 Fin End2012 2012 Fin End2013 2013 Fin End2011 2011 Fin End2014 2014 Fin End2015 2015
Michelin
CAC 40
Juin June 2016 2016
November 08&09, 2016
Deutsche Bank
2 23
2016 guidance confirmed
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Adjusted 2016 markets outlook
PASSENGER CAR: ~ +2%
TRUCK: ~ -2%
Old: +1% / +3 %
Old: -2% / 0%
Old: -2% / -5%
● OE: Growth in Western Europe and in India, decrease in North America on high levels ● RT: Increasing markets in Western Europe and in North America on high low-tier imports. Down in China, the world's largest market
● Mining tires: demand down as mining companies complete inventory drawdowns
● OE: Growth in mature zones, China and India
● RT: Demand momentum in Western Europe and North America driven by low tier segments. Sustained growth in China
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
SPECIALTY: -4% / -5%
● Earthmover slowdown ● Agricultural tires*: declining OE markets ● Aircraft** and Two-Wheel*** tires: continued growth * Europe and North America ** Commercial aircraft *** Motorcycle tires in Europe, USA and Japan
2016 guidance confirmed 2016 Volumes
Above-market growth
Operating income from recurring activities at constant exchange rates
> 2015*
Structural FCF
> €800m
* ≥ for H2
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Updated EBIT scenario based on the improved Price-mix/Raw Materials and on September data H1 2016 (in € millions)
26
FY 2016 old
new
Raw Materials
+339
~ +450
~ +550
Net Price-mix / Raw Materials
+115
Positive
Positive > +150
Competitiveness plan / inflation
+13
Neutral
Neutral
Currency effect
-98
~ -200
~ -160
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
November 08&09, 2016
Deutsche Bank
Appendices
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
PC tires: growth in Western Europe and North America driven by low-tier segments, growing emerging markets excl. South America Passenger car market at September 30, 2016 (YoY in %, in number of tires) North America
+2%
RMA pool*
-2%
+6%
Europe excl. Russia & CIS +5 %
RMA non pool*
ETRMA pool**
+1% Asia excl. India
+5%
+7 %
+1 %
+4%
+1%
ETRMA non pool**
GLOBAL MARKET
+3% Africa/India/Middle East
+4%
+8%
+4%
OE
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
South America
-4% -16%
* RMA pool: Rubber Manufacturers Association members ** ETRMA pool: European Tire & Rubber Manufacturers Association members Source Michelin
29
Europe incl. Russia & CIS
RT
+4%
+2%
Truck tires: global market down driven by Americas OE and China Truck tires market at September 30, 2016 (YoY in %, in number of new tires)
GLOBAL MARKET North America
Europe incl. Russia & CIS
Europe excl. Russia & CIS
-1%
RMA pool* -2%
-16%
+4%
+14%
+4%
RMA non pool*
Asia excl. India
+4%
+4%
Africa/India/Middle East
South America -0%
+2%
+8% +1%
-1%
-5%
* RMA pool: Rubber Manufacturers Association members Source Michelin
30
-2%
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
OE
RT
-21%
Focused pricing management and better mix supporting net sales and driving better margins YoY change (in € millions and %)
+217
15,806
+86 Change in scope of consolidation* (+0.5%)
9m 2015 Net sales * Meyer Lissendorf , Blackcircles, BookaTable
31
-275
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
-363 Volumes (+1.4%)
Price-Mix (-1.7%) o/w mix -0.1%
-2.1% 15,471
Currency effect (-2.3%)
9m 2016 Net sales
Improvement in prices and the mix in a lackluster Q3 market environment YoY quarterly change (in %)
Volumes Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Price-Mix Q2
Q3
Q1
2016
2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Currency effect Q2
Q3
Q1
2016
2015
1.5
3.5
4.2
3.7
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2016
10.7 5.7 3.8
1.4
-0.9 -3.6 -5.1
32
Q3
2015 9.7
3.4
Q2
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
-2.4
-2.5
-1.3
-2.7
-1.0
-1.9
-1.3 -3.7
New plant in Léon, Mexico to produce premium Passenger car and Light truck tires ● Capacity: ─ First tranche: 4 to 5 millions MICHELIN PC tires ─ Approx. 60,000 tonnes ─ 80% of tires produced are 18’ and more
● Investment: ─ €450m including semi-finished
● Target: ─ Automakers in Mexico ─ North American premium market
● First tire to roll off the production line at the end of 2018
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Brazil: Michelin acquires Levorin ● Brazilian manufacturer of bicycle and motorcycle tires. ─ 2015 net sales: €135 million ─ 2,000 employees at its two plants in Sao Paulo and Manaus
● Specialized in the commuter segment in Brazil.
● Strategic objectives for Michelin: ─ consolidate its presence in Brazil in the significant, and expanding, commuter segment ─ strengthen the global development of its 2 Wheel tire ranges and complement the range of tires currently offered, which are historically oriented towards the high-end 2 Wheel leisure market
● Subject to the approval of the Brazilian competition authorities 34
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
H1 2016 Operating income of €1.4bn, up a sharp €241m at constant exchange rates ● Volumes up 2.5%, beating the market in every segment ● 13.7% operating margin from recurring activities, up 1.7 points ● Changes in the price mix / raw materials effect had a positive impact of €115m, thanks to effective management and a favorable basis of comparison ● €155m in gains from the competitiveness plan offset inflation ● Positive free cash flow of €8m, representing a €108m improvement from first-half 2015 before acquisitions
35
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Operating income up €241m at constant exchange rates YoY change in operating income from recurring activities* (in € millions) +€241m excluding forex -224
+339
+11%
-142
+155
-49 +159
1,262
Raw materials
Price-mix o/w mix : -61
Inflation Competitiveness
Depreciation
+3
-98
Other
1,405
Currency
Volumes
+115
+13
H1 2015 * To make its operating performance easier to understand and analyze, Michelin now presents "Operating income before non-recurring income and expenses" as "Operating income from recurring activities" and has refined its definition.
36
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
H1 2016
Improvement in unit margin due to effective pricing management over time Net effect of price mix / raw materials on operating income (in € millions ) 2010
2012
2011
2013
2014
+103
+118
2015
H1 2016
+1,133
+264 +115
-93 -266
● H1 2016: price mix / raw material effect was a negative €20m for indexed businesses and a positive €135m for the non indexed businesses
37
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Competitiveness plan on track to reach €1.2bn target Gain objectives* 2012-2016: €1,200m SG&A
Raw Materials
178
Total Gain 2012H1 2016
Total Gain 2012H1 2016
* Before inflation and including avoided costs
38
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
1,119
Manufacturing - Transport 482
459
TOTAL
Total Gain 2012H1 2016
155
Gain H1 2016
261
Gain 2015
238
Gain 2014
275
Gain 2013
190
Gain 2012
Solid cash generation committed to shareholders ● In € millions 1,000 1000 900 800
> 800 833
792
749
700
600
717
450
300
599 206
517
500
87
400 300 200 100
314
438
464
463
522
378
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
147
0
2010
2011 Dividends
39
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Share buy back
Structural Free Cash Flow
Profitable growth ambition ● Base 100 in 2010 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80
+52%
+280bp +4%
2010 Volume growth
40
>> €3,000 bn by 2020
2011
2012
2013
2014
Operating margin from recurring activities
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2015
Above market growth
2020
Operating result from recurring activities
A stronger Group with improving profitability Operating profit and margin* & ROCE 3,000 3,000
12.8% 11.9%
2,500 2,500
10.5%
9.7% 2,000 2,000
9.5%
9.8%
9.4% 11.3%
12.2% 12.2%
13.7%
5.6%
10%
11.0%
8% 5.4%
2,423
5.8%
1,695
1,645
500 500
920
1,945
2,234
6%
2,577 2,170 1,405
4% 2%
862
00
0% 2007
2008
2009
Operating profit (in €m) * Before non-recurring items
41
14% 12%
5.6%
1,500 1,500
1,000 1,000
10.9%
11.1% 11.1%
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
Operating margin (as a % of net sales)
2014
2015
H1 2016
ROCE after tax (in %)
Growing Passenger car margin through product innovation, mix and improving customer service 15%
Operating profit and margin* 13.8% 1,600 1,600 11.5%
1,400 10.4%
1,200 1,000
10.2% 9.4%
9.2%
800
10.5%
9.3% 1,384
830
370
200
1,014
1,018
1,033
1,090
1,010
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
814
661
4.3%
0 0 2007
2008
2009
Operating profit (in €m)
Operating margin ( as a % of net sales)
* Before non-recurring items ** At constant scope of consolidation and raw materials prices, and with markets expanding (CAGR of 2.5%)
42
11%
8.0%
600
400
New 2016-2020 target range**
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2015
H1 2016
Strong Truck profitability growth through competitiveness, product & service innovation and customer focus Operating profit and margin* 13% 1,200 1,000 1,000
10.4%
800
7.8%
8.1%
444
503
495
2012
2013
2014
7.6% 400
4.4% 427
0 2007
3.5%
2.5% 138
-69
2008
-1.5% 2009
-200
249
233
2010
2011
Operating profit (in €m)
Operating margin ( as a % of net sales)
* Before non-recurring items ** At constant scope of consolidation and raw materials prices, and with markets expanding (CAGR of 1.5% )
43
9%
6.6%
600
200
9.9%
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
New 2016-2020 target range**
645 288
2015
H1 2016
Specialty: resilient profitability in a challenging environment Operating profit and margin* 900
26.0%
24%
800 700 21.5%
600 500 400
17.8%
17.8%
17.9%
388
412
100
13.3%
645
574
432
18.6%
2007
2008
2009
2010
303
Operating profit (in €m)
2011
2012
2014
Operating margin ( as a % of net sales)
* Before non-recurring items ** At constant scope of consolidation and raw materials prices, and with markets expanding Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
2013
2015
New 2016-2020 target range**
17%
548
270
0
44
20.6%
19.3%
946
694
300 200
20.6%
H1 2016
Strong operating profit growth through diversified and worldwide footprint Group operating profit*, by Reporting Segment (in € millions and %) 2,577
2,423 1,695
2,234
1,945 43%
2,170 54% 51%
23%
23%
25%
29%
26%
21%
20% 22%
2013
2014
2015
H1 2016
52% 60%
18% 12%
15% 25%
36%
2010
2011
39% 2012 RS1
* Before non-recurring items
45
Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
1,405
49%
RS2
RS3
58%
Disclaimer "This presentation is not an offer to purchase or a solicitation to recommend the purchase of Michelin shares. To obtain more detailed information on Michelin, please consult the documentation published in France by Autorité des marchés financiers available from the http://www.michelin.com/eng/ website.
This presentation may contain a number of forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that these statements are based on reasonable assumptions at the time of the publication of this document, they are by nature subject to risks and contingencies liable to translate into a difference between actual data and the forecasts made or induced by these statements."
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016
Contacts
Valérie MAGLOIRE Matthieu DEWAVRIN Humbert de FEYDEAU +33 (0)1 78 76 45 36 27, cours de l’île Seguin 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt - France
[email protected]
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Zurich & Geneva – Deutsche Bank – November 08&09, 2016