Deutsche Bank Swiss Equities Conference, May 21, 2008, Zurich

Deutsche Bank Swiss Equities Conference, May 21, 2008, Zurich Erich Hunziker, Deputy Head of the Corporate Executive Committee and CFO 1 This presen...
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Deutsche Bank Swiss Equities Conference, May 21, 2008, Zurich Erich Hunziker, Deputy Head of the Corporate Executive Committee and CFO

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This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as ‘believes’, ‘expects’, ‘anticipates’, ‘projects’, ‘intends’, ‘should’, ‘seeks’, ‘estimates’, ‘future’ or similar expressions or by discussion of, among other things, strategy, goals, plans or intentions. Various factors may cause actual results to differ materially in the future from those reflected in forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, among others: 1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11

pricing and product initiatives of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments and economic conditions; delay or inability in obtaining regulatory approvals or bringing products to market; fluctuations in currency exchange rates and general financial market conditions; uncertainties in the discovery, development or marketing of new products or new uses of existing products, including without limitation negative results of clinical trials or research projects, unexpected side-effects of pipeline or marketed products; increased government pricing pressures; interruptions in production loss of or inability to obtain adequate protection for intellectual property rights; litigation; loss of key executives or other employees; and adverse publicity and news coverage.

Any statements regarding earnings per share growth is not a profit forecast and should not be interpreted to mean that Roche’s earnings or earnings per share for this year or any subsequent period will necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings or earnings per share of Roche. For marketed products discussed in this presentation, please see full prescribing information on our website – www.roche.com All mentioned trademarks are legally protected

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1

Performance up-date Our priorities

3

Q1 2008: Outperforming in our markets

CHF bn

% change in

Q1’07

Q1’08

9.1

USD growth

CHF

local

8.6

-6

1

8

8.4

8.5

2

9

17

Diagnostics

2.2

2.3

3

9

19

Roche Group

11.4

10.9

-4

2

10

excl. Tamiflu pandemic 10.6

10.8

2

9

17

Pharmaceuticals excl. Tamiflu pandemic

Including Tissue Diagnostics (Ventana)

4

2

Differentiated and rejuvenated product portfolio

From 1 to 9 products with sales at or above CHF 1 billion Pharmaceuticals key products (CHF billion) By year of market introduction

24

Boniva Tarceva Avastin

20

Pegasys Herceptin

16

Xeloda NeoRecormon/ Epogin

12

MabThera/ Rituxan

8

CellCept 4

Rocephin Roaccutane

0 '97

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

5

Core EPS continued to rise rapidly Core EPS CAGR1 ('02 – '07): 22%

CHF

14.0 12.0

11.85

10.0

9.86

8.0

7.84

6.0 4.0

5.87 4.34

4.71

2002

2003

2.0 0.0 1

Compound Annual Growth Rate

2004

2005

2006

2007 6

3

Strategic acquisitions and portfolio enhancements Committed to technology leadership • THP (therapeutic antibody technology)

Driving personalised healthcare

• Alnylam (RNA interference technology) • Transgene (therapeutic HPV vaccine)

Leader in Pharma

Leader in Diagnostics

• BioVeris (electrochemiluminescence technology) • 454 Life Sciences (ultra fast gene sequencing) • NimbleGen (high-density DNA microarrays) • Ventana (tissue-based diagnostics) • Tanox (acquired by Genentech)

Early detection

Diagnosis

Patient stratification

Treatment

Monitoring

7

Our objectives for 2008

Sales • High single-digit local currency sales increase for Roche Group (excl. Tamiflu pandemic1) • Above-market sales growth1 in both divisions

Core EPS • Core earnings per share target2 at least at record 2007 level despite significant increase in R&D investment and considerably lower Tamiflu pandemic sales

Shareholder return • Continuous increase in dividend pay-out ratio over the next 3 years 1 2

Excluding government and corporate stockpiling orders of Tamiflu for pandemic use At constant exchange rates

Barring unforeseen events

8

4

Performance up-date Our priorities

9

Roche Challenge # 1 Achieve above peer level sales growth for both divisions

1 Can we constantly gain market share in both divisions ?

2006

2011

2016 10

5

Q1 2008: Continuing to outperform the market

Local sales growth

% Key products of total pharmaceutical sales

9%

Division

6%

70%

Tarceva

60%

5%

North America

Boniva

Xeloda

7%

Europe

80%

Pegasys

13%

50%

CellCept

13%

40%

NeoRecormon/ Epogin

30%

Avastin

20%

Herceptin

10%

MabThera/ Rituxan

4%

Latin America

10%

-2%

Japan

4%

20%

Other

Roche excl. Tamiflu pandemic IMS MAT Q4 07

0% 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

11

Major growth opportunities outside the US

% of Total 2007 Sales

100 80

24

32

38

47

49

52

60 40

76

68

62

20

53

51

48

67

33

0 YS AS G PE

H

IN PT CE R E

DA LO XE

A EV RC A T

EU / ROW (incl. Japan)

LL CE

PT CE M US

TH AB

A ER

TIN AS AV

12

6

A well balanced geographic split

ROW of continued importance

% of Total Pharma Sales

100 80

36

36

39

38

35

33

32

36

36

33

34

38

40

40

28

28

28

28

27

27

28

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

24

60 40 20

41

35

0

EU

US

Other Pharma 13

ROW

Oncology: Europe/RoW particularly strong

Q1 ’08 vs. Q1 ’07

CHF bn

local growth

5.0

Sales, key oncology products

(MAT, CHF bn at Q1-08 avg. exchange rates)

14.8%

6 5

4.0

+20 %

3.0

xx %

2.0

6% x%

+21 %

1.0

39 %

+8 %

4 3 2 1

Q1 '05

US

Q1 '06

Q1 '07

Japan

Q1 '08

Europe/RoW

MabThera/Rituxan Herceptin Avastin Xeloda Tarceva

Q1-08

Q2-07

Q3-06

Q4-05

Q1-05

Q2-04

0.0

Q3-03

Q1-02

0 Q4-02

55 %

14

7

Our oncology strategy: Setting new standards of care New tumor types, new combinations, new lines of intervention Example Avastin

Clinically differentiated product target all tumor types

3rd line 3rd

target all possible combinations

line 3rd line

1st

99 9

line

9 9 9Adjuvant 9Adjuvant 9 Adjuvant NSCLC 9 2nd line

2nd line

target earlier (adjuvant) intervention

2nd line

1st

1st line

line

BC

9 99

GIST Pancreatic Ovarian Prostate RCC

CRC

Superior outcome for patients

9 Completed 9 Ongoing In preparation 15

Avastin still early in its journey

Realising full potential across tumour types Tumour

Early/adjuvant (Potential for cure)

Advanced/metastatic (Extending life) 1st-line of treatment

Colon/ rectal

Lung (NSCLC)

Phase III (AVANT, NSABP C-08, E5202, E5204) Phase III (E1505)

Breast (HER2-)

Phase III (BEATRICE, E5103)

Breast (HER2+)

Phase III (BETH w/Herceptin)

Kidney (RCC)



9

2nd-line of treatment

Launched [EU, US, JP; broad label in 1st and subsequent lines]

Launched [EU majority of chemos, US carboplatin/paclitaxel]

Phase III (BETA Lung w/Tarceva)

Launched [EU paclitaxel] Phase III (AVADO, RIBBON-1)

Phase III (RIBBON-2, incl. w/Xeloda)

Phase III (AVEREL w/Herceptin)



9 9 9

Launched [EU; with interferon]

Avastin also trialed in gastric, ovarian, prostate, aNHL, and brain (GBM) (Trial names) [Approval status]. More trials are ongoing than listed above.

16

8

Funding Roche oncology products are cost-effective Cost per QALY for selected drugs (UK data – NICE/SMC)

59-111

GBP in (000)

We aim to expand use of our products to earlierstage cancers, providing full benefit to patients

22-28 8

8 - 11

MabThera 1st Line Follicular NHL Stage III/IV

MabThera Aggressive NHL

2-18 Herceptin early BC

36-38

29-38

5-23 Tarceva 2nd Statins high line NSCLC risk

Herceptin mBC

Glivec CML

Statins Elderly low risk

17

Oncology is still dramatically under funded Compared to other disease areas Total disease burden in DALYs

Total healthcare costs

(example: Germany)

Cardiovascular

Cancer 6.4%

17.1% Mental disease 25.3%

Cost breakdown in oncology Drugs 8%

Cancer 16.7%

Ambulatory 16% Other

Injuries 8.7%

Other 26.3%

Resp. 5.9%

9% Inpatient hospital care 67%

Source: A pan-European comparison regarding patient access to cancer drugs, Karolinska Institute DALY: Disability-Adjusted Life Years, figures from 2002/3; Commonly used measure of the burden of disease

18

9

Actemra: Significant clinical benefit Strong improvement also at higher ACR scores Placebo TCZ 4 mg/kg + MTX TCZ 8 mg/kg + MTX

70 *** 58.5%

Patients (%)

60 *** 47.9%

50

Δ=32.0

***p

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