Deutsche Bank Swiss Equities Conference, May 21, 2008, Zurich Erich Hunziker, Deputy Head of the Corporate Executive Committee and CFO
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This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as ‘believes’, ‘expects’, ‘anticipates’, ‘projects’, ‘intends’, ‘should’, ‘seeks’, ‘estimates’, ‘future’ or similar expressions or by discussion of, among other things, strategy, goals, plans or intentions. Various factors may cause actual results to differ materially in the future from those reflected in forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, among others: 1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11
pricing and product initiatives of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments and economic conditions; delay or inability in obtaining regulatory approvals or bringing products to market; fluctuations in currency exchange rates and general financial market conditions; uncertainties in the discovery, development or marketing of new products or new uses of existing products, including without limitation negative results of clinical trials or research projects, unexpected side-effects of pipeline or marketed products; increased government pricing pressures; interruptions in production loss of or inability to obtain adequate protection for intellectual property rights; litigation; loss of key executives or other employees; and adverse publicity and news coverage.
Any statements regarding earnings per share growth is not a profit forecast and should not be interpreted to mean that Roche’s earnings or earnings per share for this year or any subsequent period will necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings or earnings per share of Roche. For marketed products discussed in this presentation, please see full prescribing information on our website – www.roche.com All mentioned trademarks are legally protected
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1
Performance up-date Our priorities
3
Q1 2008: Outperforming in our markets
CHF bn
% change in
Q1’07
Q1’08
9.1
USD growth
CHF
local
8.6
-6
1
8
8.4
8.5
2
9
17
Diagnostics
2.2
2.3
3
9
19
Roche Group
11.4
10.9
-4
2
10
excl. Tamiflu pandemic 10.6
10.8
2
9
17
Pharmaceuticals excl. Tamiflu pandemic
Including Tissue Diagnostics (Ventana)
4
2
Differentiated and rejuvenated product portfolio
From 1 to 9 products with sales at or above CHF 1 billion Pharmaceuticals key products (CHF billion) By year of market introduction
24
Boniva Tarceva Avastin
20
Pegasys Herceptin
16
Xeloda NeoRecormon/ Epogin
12
MabThera/ Rituxan
8
CellCept 4
Rocephin Roaccutane
0 '97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
5
Core EPS continued to rise rapidly Core EPS CAGR1 ('02 – '07): 22%
CHF
14.0 12.0
11.85
10.0
9.86
8.0
7.84
6.0 4.0
5.87 4.34
4.71
2002
2003
2.0 0.0 1
Compound Annual Growth Rate
2004
2005
2006
2007 6
3
Strategic acquisitions and portfolio enhancements Committed to technology leadership • THP (therapeutic antibody technology)
Driving personalised healthcare
• Alnylam (RNA interference technology) • Transgene (therapeutic HPV vaccine)
Leader in Pharma
Leader in Diagnostics
• BioVeris (electrochemiluminescence technology) • 454 Life Sciences (ultra fast gene sequencing) • NimbleGen (high-density DNA microarrays) • Ventana (tissue-based diagnostics) • Tanox (acquired by Genentech)
Early detection
Diagnosis
Patient stratification
Treatment
Monitoring
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Our objectives for 2008
Sales • High single-digit local currency sales increase for Roche Group (excl. Tamiflu pandemic1) • Above-market sales growth1 in both divisions
Core EPS • Core earnings per share target2 at least at record 2007 level despite significant increase in R&D investment and considerably lower Tamiflu pandemic sales
Shareholder return • Continuous increase in dividend pay-out ratio over the next 3 years 1 2
Excluding government and corporate stockpiling orders of Tamiflu for pandemic use At constant exchange rates
Barring unforeseen events
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4
Performance up-date Our priorities
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Roche Challenge # 1 Achieve above peer level sales growth for both divisions
1 Can we constantly gain market share in both divisions ?
2006
2011
2016 10
5
Q1 2008: Continuing to outperform the market
Local sales growth
% Key products of total pharmaceutical sales
9%
Division
6%
70%
Tarceva
60%
5%
North America
Boniva
Xeloda
7%
Europe
80%
Pegasys
13%
50%
CellCept
13%
40%
NeoRecormon/ Epogin
30%
Avastin
20%
Herceptin
10%
MabThera/ Rituxan
4%
Latin America
10%
-2%
Japan
4%
20%
Other
Roche excl. Tamiflu pandemic IMS MAT Q4 07
0% 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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Major growth opportunities outside the US
% of Total 2007 Sales
100 80
24
32
38
47
49
52
60 40
76
68
62
20
53
51
48
67
33
0 YS AS G PE
H
IN PT CE R E
DA LO XE
A EV RC A T
EU / ROW (incl. Japan)
LL CE
PT CE M US
TH AB
A ER
TIN AS AV
12
6
A well balanced geographic split
ROW of continued importance
% of Total Pharma Sales
100 80
36
36
39
38
35
33
32
36
36
33
34
38
40
40
28
28
28
28
27
27
28
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
24
60 40 20
41
35
0
EU
US
Other Pharma 13
ROW
Oncology: Europe/RoW particularly strong
Q1 ’08 vs. Q1 ’07
CHF bn
local growth
5.0
Sales, key oncology products
(MAT, CHF bn at Q1-08 avg. exchange rates)
14.8%
6 5
4.0
+20 %
3.0
xx %
2.0
6% x%
+21 %
1.0
39 %
+8 %
4 3 2 1
Q1 '05
US
Q1 '06
Q1 '07
Japan
Q1 '08
Europe/RoW
MabThera/Rituxan Herceptin Avastin Xeloda Tarceva
Q1-08
Q2-07
Q3-06
Q4-05
Q1-05
Q2-04
0.0
Q3-03
Q1-02
0 Q4-02
55 %
14
7
Our oncology strategy: Setting new standards of care New tumor types, new combinations, new lines of intervention Example Avastin
Clinically differentiated product target all tumor types
3rd line 3rd
target all possible combinations
line 3rd line
1st
99 9
line
9 9 9Adjuvant 9Adjuvant 9 Adjuvant NSCLC 9 2nd line
2nd line
target earlier (adjuvant) intervention
2nd line
1st
1st line
line
BC
9 99
GIST Pancreatic Ovarian Prostate RCC
CRC
Superior outcome for patients
9 Completed 9 Ongoing In preparation 15
Avastin still early in its journey
Realising full potential across tumour types Tumour
Early/adjuvant (Potential for cure)
Advanced/metastatic (Extending life) 1st-line of treatment
Colon/ rectal
Lung (NSCLC)
Phase III (AVANT, NSABP C-08, E5202, E5204) Phase III (E1505)
Breast (HER2-)
Phase III (BEATRICE, E5103)
Breast (HER2+)
Phase III (BETH w/Herceptin)
Kidney (RCC)
–
9
2nd-line of treatment
Launched [EU, US, JP; broad label in 1st and subsequent lines]
Launched [EU majority of chemos, US carboplatin/paclitaxel]
Phase III (BETA Lung w/Tarceva)
Launched [EU paclitaxel] Phase III (AVADO, RIBBON-1)
Phase III (RIBBON-2, incl. w/Xeloda)
Phase III (AVEREL w/Herceptin)
–
9 9 9
Launched [EU; with interferon]
Avastin also trialed in gastric, ovarian, prostate, aNHL, and brain (GBM) (Trial names) [Approval status]. More trials are ongoing than listed above.
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8
Funding Roche oncology products are cost-effective Cost per QALY for selected drugs (UK data – NICE/SMC)
59-111
GBP in (000)
We aim to expand use of our products to earlierstage cancers, providing full benefit to patients
22-28 8
8 - 11
MabThera 1st Line Follicular NHL Stage III/IV
MabThera Aggressive NHL
2-18 Herceptin early BC
36-38
29-38
5-23 Tarceva 2nd Statins high line NSCLC risk
Herceptin mBC
Glivec CML
Statins Elderly low risk
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Oncology is still dramatically under funded Compared to other disease areas Total disease burden in DALYs
Total healthcare costs
(example: Germany)
Cardiovascular
Cancer 6.4%
17.1% Mental disease 25.3%
Cost breakdown in oncology Drugs 8%
Cancer 16.7%
Ambulatory 16% Other
Injuries 8.7%
Other 26.3%
Resp. 5.9%
9% Inpatient hospital care 67%
Source: A pan-European comparison regarding patient access to cancer drugs, Karolinska Institute DALY: Disability-Adjusted Life Years, figures from 2002/3; Commonly used measure of the burden of disease
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Actemra: Significant clinical benefit Strong improvement also at higher ACR scores Placebo TCZ 4 mg/kg + MTX TCZ 8 mg/kg + MTX
70 *** 58.5%
Patients (%)
60 *** 47.9%
50
Δ=32.0
***p