Deutsche Bank Global Emerging Markets Conference September 15-17, 2010 – New York 1
Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the company’s filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forwardlooking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
2
Agenda
The Company
4
Market Positioning
8
Pulp and Paper Market
15
2Q10 Financials
22
Synergies
26
Corporate Restructuring
28
3
The Company
4
VCP and Aracruz merged to create Fibria
Shareholder Structure
Votorantim Industrial S.A.
BNDESPar
30.42%1
29.34%
Treasury
0.07%
Free Float
40.17%
NYSE "FBR" 42% BOVESPA "FIBR3" 58%
50.0%
50.0% Average Trading Volume (2Q10): US$68 million / day
Veracel
1
Conpacel
Position as of August 31, 2010. BNDESPar has 21% linked to a Shareholder’s Agreement with Votorantim Industrial S.A. during the first 3 years and 10.9% during the following 2 years.
5
Improved Corporate Governance
Migration to BMF&Bovespa's
Policies approved by the
Novo Mercado Listing Segment:
Board of Directors:
- 100% tag along rights
- Corporate Governance
- Independent members in the Board
- Information Disclosure
- One class of share: 1 share = 1 vote
- Stocks Trading
Listed in the Most Important Sustainability Indexes: DJSI / ISE
Adoption of International Accounting Practices
Accessibility to Management by Financial Communities
Investor Relations Awards: - Top 5 in Financial Disclosure (Latam) - Top 5 in Best Corporate Sustainability
6
Improved Corporate Governance Board and Committees
Shareholder Meeting
9 Members: 20% Independent
Fiscal Council
Board of Directors
Chairman: José Luciano Penido CEO: Carlos Aguiar
Board Advisory Committees Audit and Risks
Executive Officers
Personnel and Remuneration Finance Sustainability
7
Market Positioning
8
Creation of a Winning Player Superior Asset Combination
Competitive Strengths
Pulp Mill Paper Mill Port Terminal
Leadership in Market Pulp Scale and Integrated Operations
Low Production Cost DNA
Unique Forestry Management: Advanced Forestry Techniques and Short Harvest Cycle
Strong / Reliable Customer Base
Forest to Port Integration Trough Efficient Logistics
Modern Industrial Plants
Belmonte Veracel Caravelas Portocel Três Lagoas Conpacel
• • • • •
1 Data
Piracicaba Jacareí Santos
Aracruz
Pulp production capacity: 5.4 million t / year Paper production capacity: 358 thousand t / year Total area: 1.0 million ha1|Eucalyptus plantation: 585 thousand ha1 4 pulp plants; 2 paper plants and operation of 3 port terminals High yield in eucalyptus production (avg 45 m3/ha/year) and certified forests – Short harvest cycle: 6 years vs. 25-70 years in Scandinavia
as of June 30, 2010. Does not include partnership program which represents 125 thousand ha.
9
Unique Brownfield Potential Growth
Planned Capacity Increase
Modern Plants
Aracruz Capacity: 2.300 Technical age: 9
Best sites for additional capacity ('000 t)
Average Plant Capacity (‘000 t)
Aracruz IV
2.500
5.300
1.500 2.000
Três Lagoas Capacity: 1.300 Technical age : 0
Losango I
1.500
1.500 Jacareí Capacity: 1.100 Technical age : 5
Indonesia 1.000
Três Lagoas II
Uruguay
1.500
Brazil 500
Russia
USA
Portugal Canada Sweden
Japan
40
30
Veracel II(1)
Chile Finland France Spain
20
South Africa
750
China
10
Technical age of equipment (years)
Fibria's Pulp Capacity 1979 - 2009 CAGR: 3.6%
Veracel (1) Capacity: 550 Technical age : 3
Brownfield
Brownfield
Greenfield
Brownfield
…Expansion…
(1)
Fibria’s 50% stake at Veracel Source: Fibria
10
Fibria has the best sites ready to duplicate capacity Capacity expansion ('000 t)
Status of expansion projects
Três Lagoas II 1,500
10,650
Capacity: 1.5 million tons
1,500 1,500
-
Losango
750 5,400
Forest base: Aracruz IV
-TLS I surplus: 30,000 ha Need: 150,000 ha
Três Lagoas II
- Leasing: 45,000 ha in 2010
Veracel II
Social-environmental licensing process initiated Feasibility study to start in 2011 Startup slated for 2014 Fibria 2010
Brownfield
Brownfield
Greenfield
Brownfield
Fibria 2025
Veracel II Capacity: 1.5 million tons Negotiations with partner in progress
11
Leadership in the Global Market Pulp Sector
Market Share1
Pulp Production Capacity 2009 ('000 t)
1st
3%
5,400
Fibria Arauco
11%
~ Twice the size
APRIL CMPC Sodra Botnia Tembec Suzano
Total Pulp: 188 million t
Weyerhaeuser APP
Total Market Pulp: 48.5 million t
Canfor Domtar IP Ilim 22%
Georgia Pacific ENCE
Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP)
Mercer
Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (BSKP)
32%
Unbleached Kraft Pulp (UKP)
West Fraser
Mechanical
Cenibra Stora Enso 0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
Total Hardwood Pulp: 25 million t
Source: PÖYRY, 2007 / As for Market Pulp: Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC) 2009 and Fibria. 1 Market Share estimated considering 2009 nominal capacity
Total Eucalyptus Pulp: 17 million t
12
Low Production Cash Cost DNA
Cash Cost1 – US$/t
475
468 437 225
320
199
436 152
Hardwood Cash Cost (US$/t) vs Capacity ('000 t) 423
416
US$/ton 600
393
113 238
161
296 266
255
2502
151
155
118 133 243
238
284
310 178
155
232
500 Iberia
400 300
178
250 133
104
95
200 100 0
Iberia
Wood
1
Source: Hawkins Wright Estimate 2Q10
2
Fibria 2Q10 Cash cost without downtimes
Others
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
Capacity ('000 t)
13
Long Term Relationship With Key Clients
Global Footprint Uses of Fibria’s Pulp – 2Q10
Supplies customized pulp products to specific paper grades Sole supplier to key customers focused on eucalyptus pulp to the tissue market
Specialty
Top 10 main customers represent on average 65% of sales
21% Tissue
26%
53%
P&W
Europe 38% Switzerland Hungary
North America 27%
Asia 24%
Beijing
Miami
Hong Kong Sales Destination1
Brazil 11%
Headquarters
Subsidiaries
Representative offices
NY004GAK_1.wor NY004GAK_1.wor
1
Sales destination as of 2Q10.
14
Pulp and Paper Market
15
Shipments to Capacity Ratios and Inventories
World market pulp shipments to capacity
96% 94% 92%
95% 92% 90%91% 89%89%89%
88% 86%
85%
85%
85% 79%80%80% 78% 76%
Jul-10 10
Jun-10 10
May-10 10
Apr-10 10
Mar-10 10
Feb-10 10
Dec-09 09
Nov-09 09
Oct-09 09
Sep-09 09
Jul-09 09
Jun-09 09
Apr-09 09
May-09 09
Mar-09 09
Jan-09 09
Dec-08 08
Oct-08 08
Nov-08 08
Sep-08 08
Jul-08 08
Aug-08 08
Jul-10 -10
Jun-10 -10
Apr-10 -10
May-10 10
Mar-10 -10
Feb-10 -10
Jan-10 -10
Dec-09 -09
Nov-09 -09
Oct-09 -09
Sep-09 -09
Aug-09 -09
Jul-09 -09
Jun-09 -09
Apr-09 -09
May-09 09
Mar-09 -09
Jan-09 -09
Feb-09 -09
Feb-09 09
79%
79%
Dec-08 -08
Oct-08 -08
84% 82%
82%83% 81%
Nov-08 -08
Sep-08 -08
89% 88% 88% 86% 85%
89% 88%88%
87%
86%
Source: PPPC Global 100 – Chemical Market Pulp
Source: PPPC Global 100 – P&W
World pulp producers' average days of supply
World pulp consumers' days of supply
50
35
40
30
29
30
20
days
days
25
20
20
Source: PPPC Global 100 – Total Chemical Pulp Producers' stock
Source: PPPC Global 100 – Total Chemical Pulp Consumers' stock
Jul-10
Dec-09
May-09
Oct-08
Mar-08
Aug-07
Jan-07
Jun-06
Nov-05
Apr-05
Jul-10
Dec-09
May-09
Oct-08
Mar-08
Aug-07
Jan-07
Jun-06
15 Nov-05
10 Apr-05
Jul-08 -08
91%
82% 78%
Aug-08 -08
92% 90%
Aug-09 09
82%
95%
93%
Jan-10 10
90% 88%
93%
92% 90%
World P&W paper shipments to capacity
16
Industry Outlook China: Eucalyptus pulp shipments ('000 t)
Average 347 ktons
Jul-10 Jul
251 235 203 191
Mar-10 Mar
Jan-10 Jan
Dec-09 Dec
Oct-09 Oct
Nov-09 Nov
Sep-09 Sep
Jul-09 Jul
Aug-09 Aug
Jun-09 Jun
Apr-09 Apr
May-09 May
Mar-09 Mar
Jan-09 Jan
Feb-09 Feb
Dec-08 Dec
Out-08 Out
Nov-08 Nov
Sep-08 Sep
Jul-08 Jul
-27% China
Japan
Aug Aug-08
Latin America
Jun-08 Jun
Europe
May-08 May
North America
276 267
210
196 204 161 151 128
Jun-10 Jun
296
268
264
0%
355 350363 331 340 293 280 266
356
Average 240 ktons
Total
Average 233 ktons
412
10%
Feb-10 Feb
9%
518
495
15%
Apr-10 Apr
18%
May-10 May
Market pulp: world demand growth (%)
7M2010 x 7M2009 Source: PPPC Global 100 – World Chemical Market Pulp
Source: PPPC Global 100
1.000
US$920/t
900
US$840/t
800
450
700 600 350
500 400 Jul-10
Aug-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Jan-09
CRB
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Mar-08
300 May-08
250
European List Price (US$/t) – BHKP
550
Jan-08
Commodity Price Index (CRB)
European List Price (BHKP) x Commodity Index (CRB)
Announced list pulp price
List price (as of September/2010):
• • •
North America: US$900/t Europe: US$870/t Asia: US$800/t
BHKP List Price
Source: CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) – Bloomberg | BHKP: FOEX
Source: Fibria
17
Pulp Supply x Demand Balance Expected to Remain Tight Expected Supply x Demand Balance1 – Market Pulp BHKP (million t) 30.1 0.2
1.4
USA 2% p.a.
1.6
0.3
28.3
1.3 0.3
0.6
Others 2% p.a.
Rizhao (3Q10/2011)
Europe
Fibria TLS (2010)
5% p.a.
24.8
JBS Eldorado (4Q12)
-0.1
28.0
Others2
Asia 4.5% p.a.
2009 BHKP
2009 BHKP Demand Demand
Asia
+3.5 MT
+2.1 MT
Demand
Supply
Europe
USA
Others
2012 BHKP 2012 BHKP 2012 BHKP 2009 BHKP Demand Supply Demand Demand
Asia
Europe
USA
Others
2009 BHKP 2012 BHKP Supply Demand
OR3: 94%
OR3: 89% 1
Source: PPPC / Fibria changes 3 OR: Operating rate 2 Capacity
18
P&W Capacity Changes P&W paper capacity withdrawals 2009-20101
China: P&W paper capacity changes 2009-20131 Company / Mill
Effective Date
'000 t
Puyang Longfeng
Jan 2009
350
Feb 2009
150
Company
Region/Date
'000 t
M Real
Europe/2009
320
Tralin, Gaotang
International Paper
Europe/2009
250
MCC Yinhe Paper
Jul 2009
200
Others
Europe/2009
455
Yeuyang Paper
Oct 2009
200
International Paper
North America/2009
200
Fujian Nanping Paper
Oct 2009
200
Yeuyang Paper
2010
200
Others
North America/2009
230 Fujian Nanping
March 2010
100
Stora Enso
Europe/2010
210 Sun Paper/IP
March 2010
350
Sappi
Europe/2010
220
Guangxi Yongkai Sugar
April 2010
200
Others
Europe/2010
80
APP, Hainan Island
May 2010
1,200
Domtar
North America/2010
415
Lee&Man
1H 2010
200
International Paper
North America/2010
340
Jiangsu Oji Paper
Q32010
400
Others
North America/2010
280
Shandong Huatai
late 2010
150
December 2010
200
2011
200
China Metalurgical Meili Paper
Q1 2011
300
Shandong Huatai Paper
Q1 2011
500
Shandong Chenming
Q1 2011
1,250
Guangxi Huajin Group
late 2011
340
Sun Paper
Q1 2011
300
Nine Dragons
late 2011
450
April
early 2012
450
April
early 2013
450
2009 = 1.5 million t
Total P&W capacity withdrawals in Europe and North America
1
Source: TerraChoice July 2010
3,000
2010 = 1.5 million t
2009 = 1.1 million t
2010 = 3.1 million t
Guangxi Jindaxing Guangxi Yongkai Sugar
Total P&W capacity changes in China
8,400
2011 = 3.3 million t
2012-13 = 0.9 million t
19
China’s Presence in the Market Pulp Sector China's Hardwood imports of BHKP by country1
China's share of market pulp (%)2
Pulp Shipments (‘000) and Market Share (%) 10.000
7.000 6.000
2008
+59%
2009 Growth
Eucaplyptus
Hardwood
Total
21%
8.000 ‘000 t
4.000
6.000
14% 12%
3.000
22% 26%
10%
+107%
4.000
10%
2.000
12%
+2%
1.000
2.000
+51% +12%
+117%
+38%
+151%
9%
+142% +2%
2005
Brazil is the leading exporter of BHKP to China, accounting to approximately 41% of China's total imports in 2009.
1
Source: Hawkins Wright
7%
11%
9%
10% 13%
16%
0
Thailand
Others
USA
Canada
Uruguay
Russia
Chile
Indonesia
Brazil
0 BHKP Total
‘000 t
5.000
2006
2007
2008
2009
Between 2005 and 2009, the Chinese market share of eucalyptus shipments increased by 17 p.p. (total market pulp: +11 p.p.)
2
Source: PPPC – W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity.
20
Benefiting From China’s Growth Per Capita Consumption of Tissue by World Region2
China Paper&Board Production and Consumption1
in million tons
kg/person/yr
Kg / capita
120
70
30
100
60
25
50
80
20
40 15
60 30
10
40
20
20
10
0
0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Consumption
2004
2005
Production
2006
2007
2008
5 0 North America
2009
West Europe
Japan
Oceania
LatAm
East Europe
China
Africa
Per Capita
Chinese consumption of high quality tissue paper has a huge potential upside, as GDP per capita increases.
1
Source: China Paper Association.
2
Source: RISI
21
2Q10 Financials
22
2Q10 Performance Key figures
Pulp sales mix
2Q10
1Q10
2Q09
2Q10 vs1Q10
2Q10 vs2Q09
Pulp Production (1000t)
1,208
1,314
1,334
-8%
-9%
Pulp Sales (1000t)
1,253
1,322
1,349
-5%
-7%
Paper Producton (1000t)
79
77
94
3%
-16%
Paper sales (1000t)
87
83
104
6%
-16%
1,809
1,675
1,471
8%
23%
Adjusted EBITDA (R$ million)
730
637
389
15%
87%
EBITDA Margin (%)
40%
38%
26%
2 p.p.
14 p.p.
Financial Income (R$ million)
(315)
(341)
1.369
-
-
130
9
920
1,341%
-86%
2Q09
9%
Net Income (R$ million)
Cash cost (R$/t)
11%
11%
21%
27%
27% 24%
23% 37% 32%
Net Revenue (R$ million)
2Q10
1Q10
38%
39%
North America
Europe
Asia
Brazil/Others
EBITDA (R$ million) and EBITDA Margin (%) 38%
40%
499 730 26%
449
637
440 418
389
1Q10 Source: Fibria
2Q10 2Q10 w/o downtimes
2010E 2Q09
1Q10
2Q10
23
Debt Debt indicators
(R$ million)
2Q10
1Q10
2Q09
2Q10 vs 1Q10
Average maturity(1) (months)
2Q10 vs 2T09
62 Gross Debt
13,209
13,540
16,145
-2%
-18%
Net Debt / EBITDA(2) (x)
70
7.2
47 5.6
Cash Net Debt
2,364
2,684
2,953
-12%
-20%
10,846
10,856
13,192
-
-18%
4.7
2Q09 (1)Does
1Q10
(2)Last
not include the debt to former Aracruz shareholders
Debt amortization schedule (R$ billion)
Mar-10
Jun-10
12 months EBITDA
Debt by currency and type 5.1
Short-term debt:
4.6
Jun-09
2Q10
Gross debt by currency
Gross debt by type
from 34% in Jun/09 to16% in Jun/10
3%6% 14% 2.1 1.6
1.9 1.4
1.1
1.9
1.7 1.8
1.7 1.3
71% 1.1 1.2
0.9
37%
29% 13% 27%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016-2020 Foreign
Jun-09
1
Jun-10
2
Local
Pre-payment
Bonds
Former Aracruz shareholders
BNDES
NCE
Others
1
Amortization schedule as of Jun/2009 2 Amortization schedule as of Jun/2010
24
Financial Turnaround Liability Management
Achievements
2Q09
2Q10
Access to Capital Markets
Amount
Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA)
7.2x
4.7x
Eurobond Fibria 2019 @ 9.25% p.a.
US$ 1 bi
7.1% p.a.
6.0% p.a.
Eurobond Fibria 2020 @ 7.5% p.a.
US$ 750 mi
47
70
Pre Export Payment @ 3month Libor + 4.00% p.a.(tranche 1)
US$ 750 mi
43%
16%
Pre Export Payment @ 3month Libor + 4.25% p.a. (tranche 2)
US$ 425 mi
Derivatives debt
US$ 2.6 bi
-
Pre Export Payment @ 3month Libor + 2.8% p.a.
US$ 600 mi
Net Debt
R$ 13.2 bi
R$ 10.8 bi
Cost of Foreign Debt Average Maturity (months) Collateral Debt (% of total debt)
25
Synergies
26
Synergies
Net Present Value of the synergies (R$ billion)
4,5
4,3
2Q10 status: 108% of the projected curve
4,2
Others Supply Chain
3,4
2%
- Reduction of shipping cost
2.0 2,3
0.5
21%
- Optimization of logistics
Tax
Industrial
27%
11%
1.4 SG&A
16%
- Cost reduction of chemicals and energy - Production increase
23% Forestry
0.5
dec/09
- Reduction of forestry costs
2Q10
dec/10
2011
Accumulated
2012
2013
2014
- Best practices in R&D
Estimated
27
Corporate Restructuring
28
Corporate Restructuring
Event
Date
Acquisition by VCP of additional 28% of Aracruz common shares
Jan 20, 2009
VCP Capital Increase
Apr 14, 2009
VCP conversion of prefered into common shares
Jun 12, 2009
Tender Offer for Aracruz common shareholders
Jul 02, 2009
Incorporation proposal for the 0.1347 ratio
Aug 24, 2009
Merger of Aracruz shares into VCP approval
Aug 24, 2009
Shareholderes Agreement - VID and BNDES
Oct 29, 2009
End of withdrawal rights period
Nov 12, 2009
End of Aracruz trading
Nov 17, 2009
Fibria trading start (Bovespa: FIBR3 / NYSE: FBR)
Nov 18, 2009
Approval of the merger of Aracruz into Fibria
Dec 22, 2009
Migration to Novo Mercado listing segment at BM&FBovespa
May 20, 2010
29
Investor Relations Team:
Phone: +55 11 2138-4565
João Elek – IRO
Email:
[email protected]
André Gonçalves – General Manager Fernanda Naveiro Vaz Anna Laura Linkewitsch Roberto Costa
30
30