Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Intermountain West Scott Keeter Pew Research Center Brookings West / UNLV October 8, 2010
To...
Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Intermountain West Scott Keeter Pew Research Center Brookings West / UNLV October 8, 2010
Topics for Exploration • • • • •
Partisan and ideological tilt of Millennials Fundamental social and religious values Attitudes about political issues Political engagement Values and opinions on current issues
Evidence from Many Sources • • • • •
Pew Research Center surveys since 2000 Pew Forum’s Religious Landscape Survey 2007 US Census surveys on voter turnout National Election Pool exit polls Brookings / UNLV 2010 survey
Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 in the Intermountain West 60% 51% 45% 40% 41% 30% 20%
0%
2000
2002
2004
Republican/lean
2006
2008
2010
Democrat/lean Pew Research Center surveys
Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 in the Intermountain West 60% 51%
45%
40% 41%
20%
30%
0% 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
-20%
Republican/lean
Democrat/lean Pew Research Center surveys
Republican Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 60%
51% 41% 40% 38% 33% 20%
0% 2000
2002
2004
Intermountain West
2006
2008
2010
Elsewhere Pew Research Center surveys
Republican Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 60%
Ages 30+
51%
41% 40% 38% 33% 20%
0% 2000
2002
2004
Intermountain West
2006
2008
2010
Elsewhere Pew Research Center surveys
Democratic Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 60%
54% 44%
45%
40%
30% 20%
0% 2000
2002
2004
Intermountain West
2006
2008
2010
Elsewhere Pew Research Center surveys
Democratic Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 60%
54% 44%
45%
40%
Ages 30+ 30% 20%
0% 2000
2002
2004
Intermountain West
2006
2008
2010
Elsewhere Pew Research Center surveys
Self-Identified Ideology: Conservative 45 27
41
41
38
28
18-29
30+ Intermountain West
Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center
Self-Identified Ideology: Liberal
26
28
18-29
17
18
30+ Intermountain West
19
20
Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center
Obama Vote 67 51
18-29
47
50
30+ Intermountain West
50
54
Total Elsewhere 2008 NEP exit poll
2010 Obama Approval 57 42
18-29
46 37
30+ Intermountain West
48 38
Total Elsewhere 2010 Pew Research Center surveys
Pew Research Center surveys
RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, COMMITMENT AND MORAL VALUES
Religious Affiliation: Atheist, Agnostic, Nothing in Particular 32
26 18
18-29
14
30+ Intermountain West
21
16
Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center
Religious Affiliation: White Evangelical Protestant
23 8
14
18-29
15
30+ Intermountain West
14
21
Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center
Attendance at Religious Services: Weekly or More Often 38 28
40
30
18-29
30+ Intermountain West
36
38
Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center
Government Should Do More to Protect Morality in Society 45
45 37
18-29
39
30+ Intermountain West
38
40
Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey
Homosexuality Should Be Accepted by Society 62
63 49
18-29
47
30+ Intermountain West
52
50
Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey
Abortion Should Be Legal in All or Most Cases 47
49
18-29
50
52
30+ Intermountain West
49
51
Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey
Pew Research Center surveys
OTHER ISSUES AND VALUES
Government Should Do More to Help Needy Americans 68
68 56
18-29
61
30+ Intermountain West
58
62
Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey
Stricter Environmental Laws and Regulations are Worth the Cost 65
63
18-29
58
60
30+ Intermountain West
59
61
Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey
The Best Way to Ensure Peace is Through Military Strength
24
24
18-29
33
29
30+ Intermountain West
31
28
Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey
Rather Have a Smaller Government Providing Fewer Services 53 29
46
47
42
26
18-29
30+ Intermountain West
Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey
Pew Research Center & US Census surveys
POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT
Follow What’s Going on in Government and Public Affairs Most of the Time 57 31
56
51
52
33
18-29
30+ Intermountain West
Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey
2008 Voter Turnout by State 73
67 51
67
64
47
52
63
60
49
47
37
National Arizona Colorado
Ages 18-29
New Mexico
Nevada
Utah
Ages 30+ US Census surveys compiled by CIRCLE
Registered to Vote 78 51
81
72
76
59
18-29
30+ Intermountain West
Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center
Results from the August 2010 UNLV/Brookings West Survey
CURRENT ISSUES AND VALUES
Things in the Country are Going in the Right Direction
32
24
Total
21
18-29
30-39
22
40-49
23
50-64
21
65+
Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
Arizona’s Immigration Law “Goes Too Far” 49
36
37
36 29
Total
18-29
30-39
40-49
25
50-64
65+
Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
Same-Sex Marriage Should be Recognized by the Law as Valid 57 48
43
40
41 25
Total
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-64
65+
Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
Political Values on Which Millennials Are Similar to Others 2nd Amendments rights are threatened Government programs for the poor undermine individual responsibility Gone too far mixing religion & politics
Total
Ages 18-29
64 60
65 62
58
59
Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
Political Values on Which Millennials Are Slightly More Liberal We must do whatever is necessary to protect against terrorism, even if it means restricting civil liberties Minorities still lack the same opportunities as whites If financially able, women should stay home and take care of household
Total
Ages 18-29
50
45
47
52
44
38
Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
Political Values on Which Millennials Are Significantly More Liberal Cultural institutions should receive government support Reduce gap between rich and poor even with higher taxes for wealthy Labor unions play a positive role in our economy
Total
Ages 18-29
61
74
51
62
50
64
Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
Millennials Favor More Federal Government Involvement Environmental protection and cleanup Guaranteeing quality public education
Promoting renewable energy Making affordable health care available to everyone Creating jobs and economic growth Promoting the role of faith in public life
Total
Ages 18-29
55 58 59 49
64 70 67 65
66 22
74 29
Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
…But Not on Every Issue Total
Cracking down on crime and drugs Stopping the flow of illegal immigrants
Dealing with millions of illegal immigrants already here
59 74 70
Ages 18-29
62 64 60
Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
Vote for House of Representatives Total for US
44 47
All adults
Intermountain West
54
52 42
37
18-29
Republican
All adults
46 48
18-29
Democrat
Sept. 2010 survey by Pew Research Center & Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne
Conclusions • Millennial voters in the intermountain west remain more Republican than their counterparts elsewhere • But they are significantly more liberal than older generations in the region • Their political attitudes and values are not different from their counterparts elsewhere • They appear to be slightly less politically engaged than Millennials elsewhere
Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Intermountain West Scott Keeter Pew Research Center Brookings West / UNLV October 8, 2010