Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Intermountain West Scott Keeter Pew Research Center Brookings West / UNLV October 8, 2010

Topics for Exploration • • • • •

Partisan and ideological tilt of Millennials Fundamental social and religious values Attitudes about political issues Political engagement Values and opinions on current issues

Evidence from Many Sources • • • • •

Pew Research Center surveys since 2000 Pew Forum’s Religious Landscape Survey 2007 US Census surveys on voter turnout National Election Pool exit polls Brookings / UNLV 2010 survey

Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 in the Intermountain West 60% 51% 45% 40% 41% 30% 20%

0%

2000

2002

2004

Republican/lean

2006

2008

2010

Democrat/lean Pew Research Center surveys

Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 in the Intermountain West 60% 51%

45%

40% 41%

20%

30%

0% 2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

-20%

Republican/lean

Democrat/lean Pew Research Center surveys

Republican Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 60%

51% 41% 40% 38% 33% 20%

0% 2000

2002

2004

Intermountain West

2006

2008

2010

Elsewhere Pew Research Center surveys

Republican Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 60%

Ages 30+

51%

41% 40% 38% 33% 20%

0% 2000

2002

2004

Intermountain West

2006

2008

2010

Elsewhere Pew Research Center surveys

Democratic Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 60%

54% 44%

45%

40%

30% 20%

0% 2000

2002

2004

Intermountain West

2006

2008

2010

Elsewhere Pew Research Center surveys

Democratic Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 60%

54% 44%

45%

40%

Ages 30+ 30% 20%

0% 2000

2002

2004

Intermountain West

2006

2008

2010

Elsewhere Pew Research Center surveys

Self-Identified Ideology: Conservative 45 27

41

41

38

28

18-29

30+ Intermountain West

Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Self-Identified Ideology: Liberal

26

28

18-29

17

18

30+ Intermountain West

19

20

Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Obama Vote 67 51

18-29

47

50

30+ Intermountain West

50

54

Total Elsewhere 2008 NEP exit poll

2010 Obama Approval 57 42

18-29

46 37

30+ Intermountain West

48 38

Total Elsewhere 2010 Pew Research Center surveys

Pew Research Center surveys

RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, COMMITMENT AND MORAL VALUES

Religious Affiliation: Atheist, Agnostic, Nothing in Particular 32

26 18

18-29

14

30+ Intermountain West

21

16

Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Religious Affiliation: White Evangelical Protestant

23 8

14

18-29

15

30+ Intermountain West

14

21

Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Attendance at Religious Services: Weekly or More Often 38 28

40

30

18-29

30+ Intermountain West

36

38

Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Government Should Do More to Protect Morality in Society 45

45 37

18-29

39

30+ Intermountain West

38

40

Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Homosexuality Should Be Accepted by Society 62

63 49

18-29

47

30+ Intermountain West

52

50

Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Abortion Should Be Legal in All or Most Cases 47

49

18-29

50

52

30+ Intermountain West

49

51

Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Pew Research Center surveys

OTHER ISSUES AND VALUES

Government Should Do More to Help Needy Americans 68

68 56

18-29

61

30+ Intermountain West

58

62

Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Stricter Environmental Laws and Regulations are Worth the Cost 65

63

18-29

58

60

30+ Intermountain West

59

61

Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

The Best Way to Ensure Peace is Through Military Strength

24

24

18-29

33

29

30+ Intermountain West

31

28

Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Rather Have a Smaller Government Providing Fewer Services 53 29

46

47

42

26

18-29

30+ Intermountain West

Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Pew Research Center & US Census surveys

POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT

Follow What’s Going on in Government and Public Affairs Most of the Time 57 31

56

51

52

33

18-29

30+ Intermountain West

Total Elsewhere 2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

2008 Voter Turnout by State 73

67 51

67

64

47

52

63

60

49

47

37

National Arizona Colorado

Ages 18-29

New Mexico

Nevada

Utah

Ages 30+ US Census surveys compiled by CIRCLE

Registered to Vote 78 51

81

72

76

59

18-29

30+ Intermountain West

Total Elsewhere 2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Results from the August 2010 UNLV/Brookings West Survey

CURRENT ISSUES AND VALUES

Things in the Country are Going in the Right Direction

32

24

Total

21

18-29

30-39

22

40-49

23

50-64

21

65+

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Arizona’s Immigration Law “Goes Too Far” 49

36

37

36 29

Total

18-29

30-39

40-49

25

50-64

65+

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Same-Sex Marriage Should be Recognized by the Law as Valid 57 48

43

40

41 25

Total

18-29

30-39

40-49

50-64

65+

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Political Values on Which Millennials Are Similar to Others 2nd Amendments rights are threatened Government programs for the poor undermine individual responsibility Gone too far mixing religion & politics

Total

Ages 18-29

64 60

65 62

58

59

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Political Values on Which Millennials Are Slightly More Liberal We must do whatever is necessary to protect against terrorism, even if it means restricting civil liberties Minorities still lack the same opportunities as whites If financially able, women should stay home and take care of household

Total

Ages 18-29

50

45

47

52

44

38

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Political Values on Which Millennials Are Significantly More Liberal Cultural institutions should receive government support Reduce gap between rich and poor even with higher taxes for wealthy Labor unions play a positive role in our economy

Total

Ages 18-29

61

74

51

62

50

64

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Millennials Favor More Federal Government Involvement Environmental protection and cleanup Guaranteeing quality public education

Promoting renewable energy Making affordable health care available to everyone Creating jobs and economic growth Promoting the role of faith in public life

Total

Ages 18-29

55 58 59 49

64 70 67 65

66 22

74 29

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

…But Not on Every Issue Total

Cracking down on crime and drugs Stopping the flow of illegal immigrants

Dealing with millions of illegal immigrants already here

59 74 70

Ages 18-29

62 64 60

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Vote for House of Representatives Total for US

44 47

All adults

Intermountain West

54

52 42

37

18-29

Republican

All adults

46 48

18-29

Democrat

Sept. 2010 survey by Pew Research Center & Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Conclusions • Millennial voters in the intermountain west remain more Republican than their counterparts elsewhere • But they are significantly more liberal than older generations in the region • Their political attitudes and values are not different from their counterparts elsewhere • They appear to be slightly less politically engaged than Millennials elsewhere

Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Intermountain West Scott Keeter Pew Research Center Brookings West / UNLV October 8, 2010