EUROPE
THE DNA OF REAL ESTATE Fourth Quarter | 2015
MARKET INDICATORS Office Rental Growth (year-on-year) REGION
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
All Countries
0.7%
0.3%
-1.3%
Western Europe
0.7%
2.0%
2.8%
EU Countries
0.7%
1.9%
2.8%
EMU Countries
0.3%
1.1%
2.4%
Eastern Europe
0.6%
-6.6%
-16.6%
Central Europe
-0.9%
-0.6%
-0.3%
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
West EU EMU
10% 5%
East CEE
40% 20%
0%
0%
-5% -10%
60%
-20%
Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec05 07 09 11 13 15
-40%
Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec05 07 09 11 13 15
High Street Retail Rental Growth (year-on-year) REGION
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
All Countries
4.0%
1.5%
-0.4%
Western Europe
4.0%
2.3%
4.4%
EU Countries
3.7%
1.9%
4.4%
EMU Countries
3.2%
2.5%
3.8%
Eastern Europe
3.9%
-1.8%
-18.0%
Central Europe
1.9%
-0.9%
2.6%
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
West EU EMU
15% 10%
East CEE
40% 20%
5%
0%
0% -5%
60%
-20% Dec05
Dec07
Dec09
Dec11
Dec13
Dec15
-40%
Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec05 07 09 11 13 15
Logistics Rental Growth (year-on-year) REGION
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
All Countries
0.5%
-1.7%
-2.7%
Western Europe
0.7%
1.1%
1.0%
EU Countries
0.3%
1.0%
1.0%
EMU Countries
0.3%
0.9%
0.6%
Eastern Europe
-0.6%
-12.7%
-16.6%
Central Europe
-2.0%
-1.1%
-0.4%
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
West EU EMU
4% 2%
20%
0%
0%
-2%
-10%
-4%
-20%
-6%
Dec05
Dec07
Dec09
Dec11
Dec13
Dec15
East CEE
10%
-30%
Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec05 07 09 11 13 15
All sector Yield Aggregates and 10yr movements REGION
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
All Countries
6.49%
6.39%
6.00%
Western Europe
5.84%
5.54%
5.08%
EU Countries
6.06%
5.77%
5.31%
EMU Countries
6.09%
5.80%
5.32%
Eastern Europe
9.20%
9.82%
9.68%
Central Europe
7.59%
7.49%
7.24%
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
15.00%
10 yr yield range Current yield level
13.00% 11.00% 9.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00%
OFFRET IND OFFRET IND OFFRET IND OFFRET IND OFFRET IND OFFRET IND ALL
WEST
EAST
CEE
EU
Notes: Western Europe countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom Eastern Europe countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine Central Europe countries: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia EU countries: corresponds to the members of the European Union EMU countries: corresponds to the members of the euro zone
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
EMU
KEY EUROPEAN OFFICE LOCATIONS IN FOCUS Prime rents COUNTRY
CITY
RENT FREQUENCY
LOCAL MEASURE
€ SQ.M/YR
Prime Yields
US$ SQ.FT/YR
Y/Y GROWTH
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
CURRENT VALUES
Q/Q SHIFT
Y/Y SHIFT
Austria
Vienna*
sq.m/mth
€24.75
€297
$30.0
-1.0%
4.30%
-10 bp
-40 bp
Belgium
Brussels
sq.m/yr
€275
€275
$27.8
0.0%
5.70%
-5 bp
-35 bp
Bulgaria
Sofia*
sq.m/mth
€12.50
€150
$15.1
0.0%
8.50%
0 bp
-50 bp
Czech Republic
Prague
sq.m/mth
€19.50
€234
$23.6
0.0%
5.75%
0 bp
-50 bp
Denmark
Copenhagen*
sq.m/yr
Dkr1,800
€241
$24.3
0.0%
4.25%
-25 bp
-75 bp
Finland
Helsinki*
sq.m/mth
€34.00
€408
$41.2
3.0%
5.00%
0 bp
0 bp
France
Paris*
sq.m/yr
€775
€775
$78.2
3.3%
3.25%
-25 bp
-75 bp
Germany
Berlin*
sq.m/mth
€23.50
€282
$28.5
6.8%
4.10%
-10 bp
-40 bp
Germany
Frankfurt*
sq.m/mth
€37.00
€444
$44.8
0.0%
4.35%
0 bp
-35 bp
Germany
Hamburg*
sq.m/mth
€24.50
€294
$29.7
2.1%
4.15%
-5 bp
-35 bp
Germany
Munich*
sq.m/mth
€33.50
€402
$40.6
0.0%
3.70%
-15 bp
-30 bp
Germany
Dusseldorf*
sq.m/mth
€26.00
€312
$31.5
0.0%
4.35%
-5 bp
-25 bp
Greece
Athens*
sq.m/mth
€17.00
€204
$20.6
-10.5%
8.30%
0 bp
0 bp
Hungary
Budapest
sq.m/mth
€21.00
€252
$25.4
0.0%
7.00%
-25 bp
-25 bp
Ireland
Dublin*
sq.m/yr
€592
€592
$59.7
22.3%
4.25%
10 bp
-50 bp
Italy
Rome
sq.m/yr
€400
€400
$40.4
-2.4%
4.75%
0 bp
-25 bp
Italy
Milan
Luxembourg Macedonia
Luxembourg* Ci Skopje*
The Netherlands
Amsterdam
Norway
Oslo*
Poland
Warsaw
Portugal
Lisbon
Romania
Bucharest*
Russia
Moscow
Slovakia
Bratislava
sq.m/mth
€15.00
€180
Spain
Madrid
sq.m/mth
€28.50
€342
Spain
Barcelona
sq.m/mth
€19.75
€237
Sweden
Stockholm
sq.m/yr
Skr5,600
€611
Switzerland
Zurich*
sq.m/yr
Sfr750
Switzerland
Geneva*
sq.m/yr
Sfr800
Turkey
Istanbul
sq.m/mth
$45.00
€497
$50.2
Ukraine
Kiev*
sq.m/yr
$300
€276
$27.9
United Kingdom
London
sq.ft/yr
£125.00
€1,826
$184.2
sq.m/yr
€490
€490
$49.5
3.2%
4.50%
0 bp
-50 bp
sq.m/mth
€45.00
€540
$54.5
0.0%
5.10%
0 bp
-10 bp
sq.m/mth
€14.00
€168
$17.0
3.7%
9.25%
0 bp
0 bp
sq.m/yr
€370
€370
$37.3
0.0%
5.50%
-10 bp
-70 bp
sq.m/yr
Nkr4,800
€499
$50.4
0.0%
4.20%
0 bp
-55 bp
sq.m/mth
€24.00
€288
$29.1
-4.0%
5.75%
-25 bp
-50 bp
sq.m/mth
€18.50
€222
$22.4
0.0%
5.25%
0 bp
-100 bp
sq.m/mth
€18.50
€222
$22.4
-2.6%
7.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
sq.m/yr
$750
€690
$69.7
-25.0%
10.50%
-50 bp
-50 bp
$18.2
0.0%
7.00%
0 bp
-25 bp
$34.5
11.8%
4.00%
-25 bp
-125 bp
$23.9
11.3%
4.50%
0 bp
-100 bp
$61.7
12.6%
3.80%
-10 bp
-45 bp
€690
$69.6
0.0%
3.70%
0 bp
-10 bp
€736
$74.2
0.0%
4.00%
-25 bp
-25 bp
0.0%
6.80%
0 bp
0 bp
-19.4%
13.50%
0 bp
50 bp
8.7%
3.25%
0 bp
-50 bp
United Kingdom
Manchester
sq.ft/yr
£32.00
€467
$47.2
0.0%
5.00%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Birmingham
sq.ft/yr
£30.00
€438
$44.2
3.4%
5.00%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Edinburgh
sq.ft/yr
£32.50
€475
$47.9
8.3%
5.25%
-25 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Glasgow
sq.ft/yr
£29.50
€431
$43.5
0.0%
5.50%
0 bp
0 bp
NOTES: Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees. To convert local rents to euros, exchange rates applicable at the last day of the quarter are used. (*) marked data reflect legacy Cushman & Wakefield information. Source: Cushman & Wakefield
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
KEY EUROPEAN HIGH STREET LOCATIONS IN FOCUS Prime rents COUNTRY
CITY
RENT FREQUENCY
Prime Yields
LOCAL MEASURE
€ SQ.M/YR
US$ SQ.FT/YR
Y/Y GROWTH
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
CURRENT VALUES
Q/Q SHIFT
Y/Y SHIFT
Austria
Vienna*
sq.m/mth
€300
€3,600
$363
0.0%
3.75%
-15 bp
-35 bp
Belgium
Brussels
sq.m/yr
€1,850
€1,850
$187
5.7%
3.75%
-10 bp
-40 bp
Bulgaria
Sofia*
sq.m/mth
€46
€552
$55.7
4.5%
8.50%
-25 bp
-50 bp
Czech Republic
Prague
sq.m/mth
€195
€2,340
$236
5.4%
4.75%
0 bp
-25 bp
Denmark
Copenhagen*
sq.m/yr
Dkr18,000
€2,412
$243
1.4%
3.60%
-15 bp
-50 bp
Finland
Helsinki*
sq.m/mth
€164
€1,968
$199
0.0%
5.00%
0 bp
0 bp
France
Paris*
sq.m/yr
€18,000
€13,255
$1,338
0.0%
3.00%
0 bp
-50 bp
Germany
Berlin*
sq.m/mth
€305
€3,660
$369
1.7%
3.80%
-10 bp
-30 bp
Germany
Frankfurt*
sq.m/mth
€315
€3,780
$381
0.0%
3.80%
0 bp
-20 bp
Germany
Hamburg*
sq.m/mth
€310
€3,720
$375
0.0%
3.80%
-10 bp
-30 bp
Germany
Munich*
sq.m/mth
€370
€4,440
$448
0.0%
3.30%
0 bp
-20 bp
Germany
Dusseldorf*
sq.m/mth
€280
€3,360
$339
1.8%
3.90%
0 bp
-20 bp
Greece
Athens*
sq.m/mth
€180
€2,160
$218
0.0%
7.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Hungary
Budapest
sq.m/mth
€100
€1,200
$121
5.3%
6.50%
-25 bp
-25 bp
Ireland
Dublin*
sq.m/yr
€5,500
€3,091
$312
22.2%
3.75%
0 bp
-25 bp
Italy
Rome
sq.m/yr
€11,000
€11,000
$1,110
37.5%
3.25%
-50 bp
-150 bp
sq.m/yr
€12,000
€12,000
$1,211
41.2%
3.25%
-50 bp
-150 bp
sq.m/mth
€137
€1,644
$166
9.6%
4.75%
0 bp
-25 bp
Italy
Milan
Luxembourg Macedonia
Luxembourg* Ci Skopje*
The Netherlands
Amsterdam
Norway
Oslo*
Poland
Warsaw
Portugal
Lisbon
sq.m/mth
Romania
Bucharest*
sq.m/mth
Russia
Moscow
sq.m/yr
Slovakia
Bratislava
sq.m/mth
Spain
Madrid
sq.m/mth
Spain
Barcelona
sq.m/mth
Sweden
Stockholm
sq.m/yr
Switzerland
Zurich*
sq.m/yr
Switzerland
Geneva*
sq.m/yr
Turkey
Istanbul
Ukraine
Kiev*
United Kingdom
London
United Kingdom
Manchester
sq.ft/yr
£265
€1,974
United Kingdom
Birmingham
sq.ft/yr
£225
€1,676
United Kingdom
Edinburgh
sq.ft/yr
£200
€2,008
United Kingdom
Glasgow
sq.ft/yr
£260
€2,611
sq.m/mth
€30
€360
$36
-14.3%
9.25%
0 bp
0 bp
sq.m/yr
€3,000
€3,000
$303
3.4%
4.10%
0 bp
0 bp
sq.m/yr
Nkr27,000
€2,808
$283
8.0%
4.20%
-5 bp
-55 bp
sq.m/mth
€85
€1,020
$103
0.0%
7.00%
0 bp
-50 bp
€98
€1,170
$118
2.6%
5.00%
0 bp
-100 bp
€42
€504
$50.9
-6.7%
9.00%
0 bp
0 bp
$3,800
€3,498
$353
-24.0%
12.50%
0 bp
0 bp
€44
€528
$53.3
10.0%
7.50%
0 bp
0 bp
€255
€3,060
$309
4.1%
3.75%
-25 bp
-65 bp
€275
€3,300
$333
1.9%
3.75%
-25 bp
-65 bp
Skr14,900
€1,627
$164
0.0%
3.90%
-10 bp
-35 bp
Sfr9,000
€8,277
$835
0.0%
3.20%
0 bp
-40 bp
Sfr4,000
€3,678
$371
0.0%
4.25%
0 bp
0 bp
sq.m/mth
$275
€3,038
$307
-1.8%
5.80%
0 bp
0 bp
sq.m/yr
$1,440
€1,326
$134
-40.0%
13.50%
0 bp
50 bp
sq.ft/yr
£1,500
€13,145
$1,327
20.0%
2.25%
0 bp
-25 bp
$199
6.0%
4.50%
-50 bp
-100 bp
$169
0.0%
4.75%
-50 bp
-75 bp
$203
5.3%
4.75%
-25 bp
-25 bp
$263
2.0%
4.50%
0 bp
-50 bp
NOTES: Rents in France, Ireland and the UK relate to Zone A. To convert local rents to euros, exchange rates applicable at the last day of the quarter are used. Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees. (*) marked data reflect legacy Cushman & Wakefield information. Source: Cushman & Wakefield
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
KEY EUROPEAN LOGISTICS LOCATIONS IN FOCUS Prime rents COUNTRY
CITY
RENT FREQUENCY
LOCAL MEASURE
€ SQ.M/YR
US$ SQ.FT/YR
Prime Yields Y/Y GROWTH
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
CURRENT VALUES
Q/Q SHIFT
Y/Y SHIFT
Austria
Vienna*
sq.m/mth
€4.75
€57
$5.75
0.0%
6.90%
-10 bp
-35 bp
Belgium
Brussels
sq.m/yr
€58
€58
$5.85
16.0%
6.90%
0 bp
-10 bp
Bulgaria
Sofia*
sq.m/mth
€3.80
€46
$4.60
1.3%
10.75%
-50 bp
-50 bp
Czech Republic
Prague
sq.m/mth
€3.85
€46
$4.66
1.3%
6.75%
0 bp
-50 bp
Denmark
Copenhagen*
sq.m/yr
Dkr550
€74
$7.44
10.0%
7.50%
0 bp
0 bp
Finland
Helsinki*
sq.m/mth
€7.50
€90
$9.08
0.0%
7.25%
0 bp
0 bp
France
Paris*
sq.m/yr
€55
€55
$5.55
1.9%
6.00%
-25 bp
-75 bp
Germany
Berlin*
sq.m/mth
€5.90
€71
$7.15
0.0%
6.15%
-5 bp
-75 bp
Germany
Frankfurt*
sq.m/mth
€6.95
€83
$8.42
0.0%
5.95%
-5 bp
-35 bp
Germany
Hamburg*
sq.m/mth
€5.90
€71
$7.15
1.7%
6.10%
-5 bp
-25 bp
Germany
Munich*
sq.m/mth
€7.00
€84
$8.48
0.0%
5.90%
-5 bp
-45 bp
Germany
Dusseldorf*
sq.m/mth
€5.70
€68
$6.90
0.0%
6.15%
-5 bp
-25 bp
Greece
Athens*
sq.m/mth
€3.50
€42
$4.24
-12.5%
12.00%
0 bp
100 bp
Hungary
Budapest
sq.m/mth
€3.50
€42
$4.24
2.9%
8.50%
-50 bp
-50 bp
Ireland
Dublin*
sq.m/yr
€75
€75
$7.57
7.1%
5.90%
-10 bp
-35 bp
Italy
Rome
sq.m/yr
€53
€53
$5.35
-3.6%
8.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Italy
Milan
Luxembourg Macedonia
Luxembourg* Ci Skopje*
sq.m/yr
€51
€51
$5.15
-3.8%
7.00%
-25 bp
-75 bp
sq.m/mth
€8.00
€96
$9.69
6.7%
8.00%
0 bp
-50 bp
The Netherlands
Amsterdam
sq.m/mth
€2.50
€30
$3.03
0.0%
13.00%
0 bp
0 bp
sq.m/yr
€88
€88
$8.88
0.0%
6.50%
-25 bp
-90 bp
Norway
Oslo*
Poland
Warsaw
sq.m/yr
Nkr1,200
€125
$12.60
4.3%
5.75%
0 bp
-50 bp
sq.m/mth
€5.40
€65
$6.54
-1.8%
7.00%
-25 bp
-50 bp
Portugal
Lisbon
sq.m/mth
€3.50
€42
$4.24
-6.7%
7.00%
0 bp
-100 bp
Romania
Bucharest*
Russia
Moscow
sq.m/mth
€3.40
€41
$4.12
6.3%
9.25%
0 bp
-50 bp
sq.m/yr
$63
€58
$5.85
-37.0%
12.75%
-25 bp
-25 bp
Slovakia Spain
Bratislava
sq.m/mth
€3.60
€43
$4.36
0.0%
8.00%
0 bp
-50 bp
Madrid
sq.m/mth
€5.25
€63
$6.36
5.0%
7.00%
0 bp
-50 bp
Spain
Barcelona
sq.m/mth
€5.50
€66
$6.66
10.0%
7.00%
0 bp
-75 bp
Sweden
Stockholm
sq.m/yr
Skr1,050
€115
$11.57
0.0%
6.25%
0 bp
0 bp
Switzerland
Zurich*
sq.m/yr
Sfr145
€133
$13.46
0.0%
5.60%
0 bp
0 bp
Switzerland
Geneva*
sq.m/yr
Sfr180
€166
$16.71
0.0%
6.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Turkey
Istanbul
sq.m/mth
$7.00
€77
$7.80
0.0%
8.75%
-25 bp
-25 bp
Ukraine
Kiev*
sq.m/yr
$60
€55
$5.57
-16.7%
14.00%
0 bp
0 bp
United Kingdom
London
sq.ft/yr
£13.75
€201
$20.27
5.8%
4.50%
-25 bp
-75 bp
United Kingdom
Manchester
sq.ft/yr
£6.25
€91
$9.21
0.0%
5.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Birmingham
sq.ft/yr
£6.50
€95
$9.58
8.3%
5.25%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Edinburgh
sq.ft/yr
£6.50
€95
$9.58
0.0%
6.00%
0 bp
-100 bp
United Kingdom
Glasgow
sq.ft/yr
£6.00
€88
$8.84
0.0%
6.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
NOTES: Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees. To convert local rents to euros, exchange rates applicable at the last day of the quarter are used. (*) marked data reflect legacy Cushman & Wakefield information. Source: Cushman & Wakefield
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
TOP GROW TH MARKETS IN Q4 2015 Offices Rental Growth
Yield Compression
Vilnius (Non-CBD)
Berlin (Decentralised)
Milan (Semi Centre)
Stockholm (Decentralised)
Vienna (Within Gürtel)
Barcelona (Decentralised)
Hamburg (Decentralised)
Moscow (Central)
Sofia (Non-CBD)
Paris (CBD)
St Petersburg
Leipzig (Decentralised)
Madrid (CBD)
Katowice (CBD)
Dublin (Int.Fin>Centre)
Vienna (Within Gürtel)
Dresden (Decentralised)
Manchester (CBD)
Vilnius (Non-CBD)
Paris (CBD)
Brussels (Pentagon) 4%
Hamburg (Decentralised)
Budapest (South Buda)
Athens (Out of Town)
2%
Berlin (Decentralised)
Barcelona (Decentralised)
Stockholm (CBD)
0%
Capital Value Growth
Leipzig (Decentralised)
Madrid (CBD) 6%
8%
10%
-75
Q/Q growth
-50
-25
Milan (Semi Centre) 0
0%
5%
Basis point change
10%
15%
20%
Q/Q growth
High Street Shops Rental Growth
Yield Compression
Barcelona (Diagonal)
Capital Value Growth
Milan (Via Montenapoleone)
Milan (Via Montenapoleone)
Paris (Avenue George V/Rue François 1er )
Rome (Via Condotti)
Rome (Via Condotti)
Bourgas (Alexandrovska)
Florence (Via Roma)
Barcelona (Diagonal)
Plovdiv (Alexander Batenburg)
Venezia (Calle 22°Marzo/Calle S.Moisè)
Liege (Vinave d'Ille)
Bologna (Galleria Cavour)
London (West End)
Manchester (Market Square)
Varna (Kniaz Boris 1)
Bologna (Galleria Cavour) Manchester (Market Square)
Newcastle (Northumberland)
Antwerp (Meir)
Bourgas (Alexandrovska)
Oporto (Baixa (Rua de Santa Catarina))
Brussels (Rue Neuve) 2%
Florence (Via Roma)
Birmingham (High St)
Athens (Chaimanta)
0%
Venezia (Calle 22°Marzo/Calle S.Moisè)
4%
6%
Plovdiv (Alexander Batenburg)
Malmo (Sodra Forstadsgatan) 8%
10%
-75
Q/Q growth
-50
-25
Newcastle (Northumberland) 0
0%
5%
Basis point change
10%
15%
20%
Q/Q growth
Logistics Rental Growth
Yield Compression
Hasselt
Capital Value Growth Tilburg
Barcelona Brasov
Hasselt
Rotterdam
Tilburg
Constanta
Budapest
Timisoara
Sofia
Bucharest
Utrecht
Rotterdam
Eindhoven
Bristol London (Heathrow) 0%
2%
4% Q/Q growth
6%
8%
-75
-50
Rotterdam
Venlo
-25
Budapest Barcelona Sofia Brasov
Nijmegen
Constanta
Paris
Timisoara
Lyon
Bucharest 0
0%
Basis point change
NOTES: The above charts represent the top 10 growth locations of all monitored areas in Europe. If several locations are monitored within a city, the best performing submarket will be represented.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
5%
10%
Q/Q growth
15%
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