Mobile Offshore Production Systems for Offshore Oil and Gas Fields Presented by: Bruce Crager Rice Annual Forum XIII September 14, 2010 Houston, TX 1
1. Deepwater drilling began long before we had production capability
2. Time and depth gap between drilling and production is closing 3. 10,000’ has been the water depth threshold for almost 10 years 2
Issues Driving Use of Mobile Offshore Production Systems (MOPS):
Water Depth
Gas or Oil Production (Primary Function)
Geographical Location
Oil Export Options
Gas Usage / Export Options
Fabrication
Wellhead Location (Surface, Subsea or both) 3
Mobile Offshore Production Systems: Principal Types
SUBSEA WELLHEADS
SEMISUBMERSIBLE FPS
MONOHULL FPSO
SURFACE WELLHEADS
JACKUP JPU
TLP
SPAR
4
Wellhead / Tree Location: Surface vs. Subsea Advantages Subsea Completions
Surface Completion
Disadvantages
Lesser or no need for on-site surface support
Complex / costly to access for intervention
Enables wide areal distribution of wells
Requires remote control system
Can reduce project capex
May increase opex
Simpler / cheaper to access for intervention
Requires supporting platform
May reduce drilling cost Lower opex
Restricted areal coverage, directional wells Requires heave compensation on floater
5
PRODUCTION SYSTEM TYPES Solutions for Recovery of Offshore Oil & Gas
COURTESY OF: MUSTANG ENGINEERING
Three System Groups: 1.
Dry Tree Systems – Fixed Platform, Production Jackup, Compliant Tower, TLP, Spar
2.
Wet Tree Systems – New Gen. TLPs, Conventional TLPs, FPSOs, Cell Spar, Control Buoy, SS Tiebacks, Semi-FPS
3.
Mixed Dry / Wet Tree Systems – Fixed Platforms, New Gen. TLP, Conventional TLP, Spar
6
Jackup Production Unit (JPU)
Operating:
40
First:
1971, Gulftide, Ekofisk
Deepest:
Harding, UK, 400 ft
Depth Range:
43 ft – 400 ft
Construction:
2
Locations:
Worldwide
7
FPS - Semi Submersible
Operating :
39
Stacked:
4
First:
1975, Argyll, Hamilton
Deepest:
7,920 ft, MC920 Independence Hub
Construction:
6
Locations:
Worldwide
8
FPSO
Operating :
182
Stacked:
13
First:
1977, Castellon, Shell
Deepest:
8,300 ft, Cascade Chinook
Construction:
29
Locations:
Worldwide
9
TLP Operating :
24
First:
1984, Hutton, Conoco
Deepest:
4,674 ft, Magnolia GB783/84
Construction:
1
Locations:
North Sea, Angola, Gulf of Mexico, Indonesia and Equatorial Guinea
10
SPAR
Operating :
18
First:
1996, Neptune, VK 826
Deepest:
Perdido 8,008 ft Alaminos Canyon 857
Construction:
0
Locations:
Gulf of Mexico, Malaysia
11
Optimum Application Ranges 50,000
Spar
Facility Payload (st)
Spars Semis
40,000
TLP
Semi
30,000
TLP 20,000
10,000
0 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Water Depth (ft)
Source: FloaTEC 12
Worldwide Forecast Floating Activity by Year 2010-2014e Units to Award 2010-2014: 129
Units to Start-up 2010-2014: 85
40
Number of Units
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
0e 1 20
1e 1 20
2e 1 20
3e 1 20
4e 1 20
Year Aw ard
Startup
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
13
Worldwide Forecast Floating Activity by Year 2010-2014e Base Mean and High Case Units to Award 2010-2014: 129
Units to Start-up 2010-2014: 85
40 35
Number of Units
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Startup Year Base
M ean
High
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
14
Top Operator Analysis
15
Worldwide FPSO Top Operators Flowing and Under Construction Top 11 Operators (87 of 211 Units) 35 30
20 15 10 5
on oc oP hi lli Pe ps tr on as C ar ig al i
C
Pe tr ol eu m
he ll
ds id e
W oo
R
oy al D
ut ch /S
he vr on C
bp
En i
ta l To
C Ex xo nM ob il
C
N
O O
ra s
0
Pe tr ob
Number of Units
25
Operator Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
16
Worldwide FPS-Semi Top Operators Flowing and Under Construction Top 4 Operators (37 of 49 Units) 25
Numberof Units
20
15
10
5
0 Petrobras
Statoil
bp
ATP
Operator Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
17
Worldwide TLP Top Operators Flowing and Under Construction Top 7 Operators (17 of 24 Units) 6
5
Number of Units
4
3
2
1
il St at o
es s H
il Ex xo nM ob
En i
on oc oP hi lli ps C
ill ito B P H B
R
oy al D
ut ch /S
he ll
n
0
Operator Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
18
Worldwide Spar Top Operators Flowing and Under Construction Top 4 Operators (13 of 18 Units) 6
5
Number of Units
4
3
2
1
0 Anadarko Petroleum
bp
Murphy Oil
Chevron
Operator Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
19
Normalized Forecast
20
Worldwide Forecast Floating Activity by Year 2010-2014e Normalized Case - 85 Unit Startups Forecast Demand Drivers: Deepwater exploration, marginal field exploitation, and early production / phased developments
90
Number of Units
80 70 60 50 40 30
14 Units forecast to startup in 2010
20 10 0 2010e
2011e
2012e
2013e
2014e
2005-2009
2010-2014
Startup Year Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
Units Under Construction
Forecast Dem and
FPS Units Flow ing
21
Activity Share by FPS Type 2010-2014e Startup Year Normalized Case - 85 Units 30 Number of FPS Units
25 20 15 10 5 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FPSO
10
12
6
13
25
FPS-Semi
2
0
2
2
4
Spar
2
0
0
0
1
FLNG
0
0
1
0
1
TLP
0
0
0
3
1
Startup Year
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
22
Global Award Analysis
23
Number of FPS Units
Worldwide FPS Awards 2002 (A) – 2014 (e) (Mean Case)
50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003
2004
2005 2006
2007
2008 2009
2010 2011
2012
2013 2014
Hull Award Year
Aw arded
Unaw arded
High Case
Base Case
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
24
Worldwide FPS Forecast Awards 2010 (e) – 2014 (e) Area Activity Share By Region (129 Units Mean Case)
14
Number of FPS Units
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Africa/Medit.
2
4
4
8
8
Asia Pacific/Middle East
3
8
5
10
11
North America
3
1
1
4
2
North Sea/Arctic
1
4
2
3
3
South America
12
3
11
5
11
Hull Award Year
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
25
Worldwide FPS Awards 2010 (A) – 2014 (e) Mean Case By FPS Type (129 Units)
30 Number of FPS Units
25 20 15 10 5 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FPSO
17
13
20
24
26
FPS-Semi
1
3
1
2
5
Spar
0
0
0
3
1
FLNG
1
3
1
1
2
TLP
2
1
1
0
1
Hull Award Year Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
26
World Wide FPSO Awards 2010 (e) – 2014 (e) Mean Case
35
Number of FPS Units
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Hull Award Year Africa/Medit.
Asia Pacific/Middle East
North Am erica
North Sea/Arctic
South Am erica
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
27
Worldwide Forecast FPS Spending by Year (Mean Case) Regional Contribution Millions of US Dollars by FPS Award Year South America and Asia will be the key drivers for increases in spending, while the project mix causes spending to drop off in 2012 despite an increase in the number of units awarded.
$25,000,000
Thousands of US Dollars
$20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Hull Award Year Africa/ M edit. North America South America
Asia P acific/ M iddle East North Sea/ Arctic
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
28
Worldwide Forecast FPS Spending by Year Type Contribution Millions of US Dollars by FPS Award Year $25,000,000
Thousands of US Dollars
$20,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$0 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Hull Award Year FP SO
FP S-Semi
Spar
FLNG
TLP
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
29
Forecast FPSO Spending by Year (Mean Case) Millions of US Dollars by Region by FPS Award Year Despite the large numbers of Asian FPSO units to be awarded, their relatively low value decreases their importance to spending.
$14,000,000
Thousands of US Dollars
$12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Hull Award Year Africa/ M edit. North America South America
Asia P acific/ M iddle East North Sea/ Arctic
Source file: Award_ Working_Q4_2009.xls
30
Leased FPS Units
31
Forecasted Off Contract FPS Leased Fleet Availability by Type and Year 2010-2014 (Likely to be retired and EWT excluded)
Number of Units
10
8
6
4
2
0 FPSO
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
0
1
3
6
Year FPSO
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
32
Leased FPSO Market Share by Owner Owners with >1 Unit 3%
5%
8%
Aker Floating Production Bluewater Offshore
5%
Bumi Armada
8%
BW Offshore 3%
3%
FPS Ocean Fred Olsen Production 10%
Maersk MODEC
14%
Nexus/APL 3% 3% 3%
9%
Nortech Prosafe Production SBM Sea Production
3%
17%
Sevan Marine Tanker Pacific
3%
Teekay Shipping Corp
Includes JV Shares
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
33
Leased FPSO Market Share by Owner Owners with >1 Unit Owner MODEC SBM BW Offshore Bluewater Offshore Prosafe Production Sevan Marine Aker Floating Production Teekay Shipping Corp. Bumi Armada Fred Olsen Production Maersk Nexus Nortech SBM/MISC Tanker Pacific Other Grand Total
Grand Total Percentage 15 16.3% 12 13.0% 9 9.8% 7 7.6% 7 7.6% 6 6.5% 4 4.3% 4 4.3% 2 2.2% 2 2.2% 2 2.2% 2 2.2% 2 2.2% 2 2.2% 2 2.2% 14 15.2% 92 100.0%
Includes JV Shares
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
34
oy al D
C N O O
il
he ll
St at o
ut ch /S
bp
ra s
C
he vr o
n
H
es s
En i
To ta on l oc oP hi lli ps
C
C Ex A xo na nM da ob rk il o Pe tr ol eu m
R
Pe tr ob
Number of Units
Operator Owned FPS Market Share by Owner 18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Operator
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
35
Global Hull Fabrication Analysis
36
Market Share – FPSO Hull Fabrication (Number of Units) Major FPS Shipyards 2003-2010 By Fabrication Start Year 12
Number of Units
10
8
6
4
2
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Construction Start Year
COSCO
DSME
Dubai Dry Docks
HHI
Jurong
Keppel FELS
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
SHI
Yantai Raffles
37
Market Share – FPSO Topsides Fabrication (Number of Units) Major FPS Shipyards 2003-2010 By Fabrication Start Year 12 11 10
Number of Units
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Construction Start Year Aker Verdal
COSCO
DSME
Dubai Dry Docks
HHI
J Ray - Batam
Jurong
Keppel FELS
SHI
SMOE / Sem baw ang
Yantai Raffles
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
38
Market Share – FPS-Semi Hull Fabrication (Number of Units) Major FPS Shipyards 2003-2010 By Fabrication Start Year 4
Number of Units
3
2
1
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Construction Start Year
Aker Verdal
DSME
Jurong
Keppel FELS
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
MMHE
SHI
39
Market Share – FPS-Semi Topsides Fabrication (Number of Units) Major FPS Shipyards 2003-2010 By Fabrication Start Year 4
Number of Units
3
2
1
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Construction Start Year
Aker Verdal
Gulf Island Marine
J Ray - Morgan City
Keppel FELS
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.
Kiew itt
MMHE
40
Conclusions
41
Conclusions
MOPS market continues to expand
Leased FPSOs are approximately 1/2 of the FPSO market
FPSOs are by far the most common type of MOPS
A number of FPSO units are available today
Floating Production Systems are the only option for surface facilities in water depths greater than 1,750 ft
42
Questions?
43
Selecting a MOPS Unit Type: Principal Determining Criteria
Surface or Subsea Completions
Need for Well Access and Intervention
Drilling Program Requirements
Access to Existing Hydrocarbon Export Infrastructure
Water Depth and Environmental Regime
Size and weight of process equipment
44
Principal Operational Sensitivities
Oil Export Method / Storage and Offloading Systems
Environmental Parameters and the Mooring System Permanent moorings Disconnectable options Weathervaning (single-point) vs. spread moorings
Process System Sensitivities
45
Operational Considerations
System Availability / Uptime Is redundancy required? What cost for the final %?
Achieving Safety and Environmental Protection Objectives
Recruiting and Retaining Competent Crew
Maintenance Criteria
46