Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference November 18, 2015
Forward Looking Statements Certain statements in this release or presentation, other than purely historical information, including estimates, projections, statements relating to our business plans, objectives, and expected operating results, and the assumptions upon which those statements are based, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “intend,” “strategy,” “future,” “opportunity,” “plan,” “may,” “should,” “will,” “would,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events or otherwise. Risks and uncertainties to which our forward-looking statements are subject include, without limitation: (1) the ability to successfully manage global financial risks, including foreign currency fluctuations, currency exchange or pricing controls and localized volatility; (2) the ability to successfully manage local, regional or global economic volatility, including disruptions in credit markets, reduced market growth rates or changes affecting our credit rating, and generate sufficient income and cash flow to allow the Company to effect the expected share repurchases and dividend payments; (3) the ability to maintain key manufacturing and supply arrangements (including sole supplier and sole manufacturing plant arrangements) and manage disruption of business due to factors outside of our control, such as natural disasters and acts of war or terrorism; (4) the ability to successfully manage cost fluctuations and pressures, including commodity prices, raw materials, labor costs, energy costs and pension and health care costs, and achieve cost savings described in our announced productivity plan; (5) the ability to stay on the leading edge of innovation, obtain necessary intellectual property protections and successfully respond to technological advances attained by, and patents granted to, competitors; (6) the ability to compete with our local and global competitors in new and existing sales channels by successfully responding to competitive factors, including prices, promotional incentives and trade terms for products; (7) the ability to manage and maintain key customer relationships; (8) the ability to protect our reputation and brand equity by successfully managing real or perceived issues, including concerns about safety, quality, efficacy or similar matters that may arise; (9) the ability to successfully manage the financial, legal, reputational and operational risk associated with third party relationships, such as our suppliers, contractors and external business partners; (10) the ability to rely on and maintain key information technology systems and networks (including Company and third-party systems and networks) and maintain the security and functionality of such systems and networks and the data contained therein; (11) the ability to successfully manage regulatory and legal requirements and matters (including, without limitation, those laws and regulations involving product liability, intellectual property, antitrust, privacy, accounting standards and environmental) and to resolve pending matters within current estimates; (12) the ability to manage changes in applicable tax laws and regulations; (13) the ability to successfully manage our portfolio optimization strategy, as well as ongoing acquisition, divestiture and joint venture activities, to achieve the Company’s overall business strategy, without impacting the delivery of base business objectives; and (14) the ability to successfully achieve productivity improvements and manage ongoing organizational changes, while successfully identifying, developing and retaining particularly key employees, especially in key growth markets where the availability of skilled or experienced employees may be limited. For additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those projected herein, please refer to our most recent 10K, 10-Q and 8K reports.
Regulations FD and G Disclosure
For a full reconciliation, please visit:
www.pg.com/investors
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Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference November 18, 2015
Agenda • Macro Environment • P&G Transformation • Results & Outlook
5
Macro Environment • Growth rates decelerating • Currencies weakening
6
Large Positions in Tough Markets Russia
Index vs. Largest Multi-National Local Currency Devaluation* Competitor Sales BT Profit vs. USD vs. EUR 3x 4x -38% -23%
Ukraine
3x
5x
-79%
-60%
Japan
6x
5x
-12%
-1%
China
3x
3x
-1%
10%
Middle East
2x
3x
-6%
5%
P&G Sales in Tough Markets ~$14 Billion** * FY 15 impacts ** FY14 sales
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P&G Transformation • Productivity • Supply Chain • Portfolio • Product category strategies & business models
Productivity Transformation Non-Manufacturing Enrollment
Original Target: -10% by June 2016 Results to Date: -23% as of Sept 2015 Updated Plan: -25% to -30% by June 2017 June -11 Cumulative Reduction
June-12
June-13
June-14
-5%
-12%
-15%
June-15 -22%
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Productivity Transformation Cost of Goods Savings ($bn) $1.6 $1.2
FY 12
Cumulative Savings: ~$7bn $1.5
$1.3
FY 13
$1.4 Target Run-Rate = $1.2B/yr
FY 14
FY 15
FY 16e 10
Productivity Transformation Enrollment (People, 1000s)
Same Site Manufacturing Enrollment
Results to Date: -19% as of June 2015 Target: -25% to -30% by June 2017 June-12
Cumulative Reduction
June-13 -5%
June-14 -11%
June-15 -19%
11
Productivity Transformation Agency / Production Savings Reduction Number of Agencies
-40%
Agency/Production Spending ($ million)
-$300
12
Productivity Transformation Cumulative DOH Improvement
Inventory Days on Hand -2 -3 -5
-6
-6 -7
-10
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
FY 15 13
Productivity Transformation Payables – Supply Chain Financing Contribution Cumulative ($ Bn)
4
$2.3 2 $1.1 $0.2 0 FY 13
FY 14
FY 15 14
Productivity Transformation Adjusted Free Cash Flow Objective of 90 to 100%
120% 105% 90% 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% FY 06
FY 07
FY 08
FY 09
FY 10
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
FY 15
FY 16e
15
Productivity Transformation Free Cash Flow vs. Mega-Cap Peers Most Recent FY GAAP Results Walmart
Revenue ($bn) 485.7
Net Income ($bn) 16.2
Free Cash Flow ($bn) 16.4
General Motors
151.1
4.0
-1.8
United Health Group
130.5
5.6
6.5
Nestle
91.9
14.5
10.8
P&G
76.3
7.0
10.9
Johnson & Johnson
74.3
16.3
14.8
PepsiCo
66.7
6.5
7.6
Coca-Cola
46.0
7.1
8.2
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Value to Shareholders
FY’15 Past 5 Yrs Next 4 Yrs $11.9 bn $60 bn $70 bn
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Supply Chain Transformation Mixing & Distribution Centers
18
Supply Chain Transformation Re-Siting
19
Supply Chain Transformation Manufacturing Productivity
• Affordable automation • Platform standardization
20
Portfolio Transformation Baby
Fem
*Not representative of all brands
Family
Fabric
Home
Hair
Skin & PC
Grooming
Oral
PHC
21
Portfolio Transformation Value Accretive Interventions
Exiting or Fixing Under-Earning Businesses
22
Value Accretive Business Unit Moves Mexico Family Care
Sales, $ millions Before Tax Margin
* Pre = FY ‘15, Post = Going
Pre-Change*
Post-Change*
100
~25
Negative Double-Digits
Positive Double-Digits
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Value Accretive Business Unit Moves Fabric Care Sales
Organic Sales Growth Impact
Forms – Additives, Bars, Bleaches, Gels, Tablets
-60
-0.3%
Brands – Tier III
-70
-0.4%
Total Impact to Fabric Care
-130
-0.7%
$ Millions
* FY ‘16
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Value Accretive Market Interventions India $ Millions Organic Sales Growth Before Tax Profit Before Tax Margin
2013/14
2014/15
+Mid-Teens
+High-Single Digits
Negative
Positive
-Low-Single Digits
+Mid-Single Digits
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Business Transformation Largest Categories Baby
+
Fabric
*Not representative of all brands
Largest Markets
+
Hair
+
Grooming
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Business Transformation Fabric Care
27
Business Transformation Fabric Care
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Business Transformation U.S. Fabric Care
29
Business Transformation U.S. Diapers Market Share 48
42
36
30 07/04/09
P&G 44%
Huggies 37%
07/25/15
30
31
Business Transformation Baby Care
32
Business Transformation Grooming
33
Business Transformation Gillette FlexBall
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GILLETTE NEW FUSION INNOVATION
5 Confidential. Property of3 P&G.
Gillette ProShield Commercial
I OONS HI N TU I ONNC H GGI ILLLLEETTTTEE FNUESW I O FNU PS R I ENLODV A LA
7 Confidential. Property of3 P&G.
Business Transformation Grooming
38
Business Transformation Grooming In-Store Availability
39
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P&G Transformation • Productivity • Supply Chain • Portfolio • Product category strategies & business models
41
Q1 FY 2016 Results Q1 ‘16 Organic Sales Growth
-1%
Core Earnings Per Share Growth
-1%
Constant Currency Core EPS Growth
12%
Q1 FY 2016 Results Free Cash Flow
Q1 ‘16 $3bn
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Productivity
101%
Dividends ($bn) Share Repurchase ($bn) Cash Returned to Shareholders
1.9 0.5 $2.4bn
FY 2016 Guidance* Organic Sales Growth FY 2016 Organic Sales Growth
In-line to Up Low Single Digits
Currency
-5% to -6%
Venezuela & Minor Brand Divestitures
-2% to -3%
All-in Sales Growth
Down High Single Digits
* Guidance assumes that Batteries & transitioning Beauty businesses are accounted for as discontinued operations
FY 2016 Organic Sales Growth 3% 2% 1%
-1%
+
Stronger Back-Half
0% JAS 15
-1% -2%
OND 15
JFM 16
AMJ 16
FY 2016 Guidance* EPS Growth FY 2016 Core Operating Profit
Up Mid to High Single Digits
Core Earnings Per Share Growth
Down Slightly to Up Mid-Single Digits
All-in Earnings Per Share Growth
+53% to 63%
* Guidance assumes that Batteries & transitioning Beauty businesses are accounted for as discontinued operations
FY 2016 Guidance Cash Returned to Shareholders Share Retirement/Repurchases*: Dividends: Cash Returned to Shareholders:
* Includes shares retired at the close of the Duracell transaction.
$8B to $9B $7B+ $15B to $16B
The Procter & Gamble Company Regulation G Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures
In accordance with the SEC's Regulation G, the following provides definitions of the non-GAAP measures used in Procter & Gamble's November 18, 2015 Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference and associated slides and the reconciliation to the most closely related GAAP measure. The measures provided are as follows: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Organic Sales Growth—page 1 Core EPS and Currency-Neutral Core EPS—pages 2-3 Free Cash Flow and Adjusted Free Cash Flow—page 3 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Productivity—page 4
1. Organic sales growth: Organic sales growth is a non-GAAP measure of sales growth excluding the impacts of Venezuela deconsolidation, acquisitions, divestitures and foreign exchange from year-over-year comparisons. We believe this provides investors with a more complete understanding of underlying sales trends by providing sales growth on a consistent basis. Organic sales is also one of the measures used to evaluate senior management and is a factor in determining their at-risk compensation.
The reconciliation of reported sales growth to organic sales is as follows:
Three Months Ended September 30, 2015 Total P&G
Net Sales Growth
Foreign Exchange Impact
Acquisition/ Divestiture Impact*
Organic Sales Growth
(12)%
9%
2%
(1)%
*Acquisition/Divestiture Impact also includes the Venezuela deconsolidation, the mix impacts of acquisitions and divestitures and rounding impacts necessary to reconcile net sales to organic sales.
Guidance
Total Company
Net Sales Growth
Foreign Exchange Impact
Acquisition/ Divestiture Impact*
Organic Sales Growth
FY 2016 Estimate
Down high single digits
(5)% to (6)%
(2)% to (3)%
In line to up low single digits
*Acquisition/Divestiture Impact also includes the Venezuela deconsolidation, the mix impacts of acquisitions and divestitures and rounding impacts necessary to reconcile net sales to organic sales
The Core earnings measures included in the following reconciliation tables refer to the equivalent GAAP measures adjusted as applicable for the following items: •
charges for incremental restructuring due to increased focus on productivity and cost savings and
•
charges for balance sheet impacts from the devaluation of the foreign currency exchange rate in Venezuela prior to deconsolidation.
We do not view these items to be part of our sustainable results. We believe that these Core measures provide an important perspective of underlying business trends and results and provide a more comparable measure of year-on-year results per share growth. 2. Core EPS and currency-neutral Core EPS: Core EPS is a measure of the Company's diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations adjusted as indicated below. Core EPS is also one of the measures used to evaluate senior management and is a factor in determining their at-risk compensation. Currency-neutral Core EPS is a measure of the Company's Core EPS excluding the incremental current year impact of foreign exchange. We believe the currency-neutral Core EPS measure provides a more comparable view of year-on-year earnings per share growth. The table below provides a reconciliation of diluted net earnings per share to Core EPS and Core EPS to Currency-neutral Core EPS: Three Months Ended September 30 2015 2014 Diluted Net Earnings Per Share from Continuing Operations $0.96 $0.93 Incremental Restructuring 0.02 0.02 Venezuela Balance Sheet Remeasurement 0.04 Core EPS $0.98 $0.99 Percentage change vs. prior period (1)% Currency Impact to Earnings $0.13 Currency-Neutral Core EPS $1.11 Percentage change vs. prior period 12% Note – All reconciling items are presented net of tax. Tax effects are calculated consistent with the nature of the underlying transaction.
Guidance
Total Company
Diluted EPS Growth
Impact of Incremental Non-Core Items*
Core EPS Growth
FY 2016 (Estimate)
53% to 63%
(48)% to (64)%
Down slightly to up midsingle digits
*Includes change in discontinued operations (includes Batteries impairments) and the absence of significant one-time items (e.g. Venezuela charge)
3. Free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow: Free cash flow is defined as operating cash flow less capital spending. Adjusted free cash flow is free cash flow plus tax payments for the Pet Care divestiture. We view these as important measures because they are a factor used in determining the amount of cash available for dividends and discretionary investment. The reconciliation of free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow is provided below (amounts in millions):
Three Months Ended September 30, 2015
FY 2015 FY 2014 FY 2013 FY 2012 FY 2011 FY 2010 FY 2009 FY 2008 FY 2007 FY 2006
Operating Cash Flow
Capital Spending
Free Cash Flow
Cash Tax Payment PetCare Sale
Adjusted Free Cash Flow
$3,538
$(532)
$3,006
-
$3,006
Operating Cash Flow
Capital Spending
Tax Payment on Divestitures
$14,608 13,958 14,873 13,284 13,330 16,131 14,919 15,008 13,435 11,375
$(3,736) (3,848) (4,008) (3,964) (3,306) (3,067) (3,238) (3,046) (2,945) (2,667)
$729 519 980 -
Adjusted Free Cash Flow $11,601 10,110 10,865 9,839 10,024 14,044 11,681 11,962 10,490 8,708
4. Adjusted free cash flow productivity: Adjusted free cash flow productivity is defined as the ratio of adjusted free cash flow to net earnings excluding impairment charges. The Company's long-term target is to generate annual free cash flow at or above 90 percent of net earnings. Adjusted free cash flow productivity is also a measure used to evaluate senior management and is a factor in determining their atrisk compensation. The reconciliation of adjusted free cash flow productivity is provided below:
Three Months Ended Septenber 30, 2015
FY 2015 FY 2014 FY 2013 FY 2012 FY 2011 FY 2010 FY 2009 FY 2008 FY 2007 FY 2006
Adjusted Free Cash Flow $3,006
Adjusted Free Cash Flow $11,601 10,110 10,865 9,839 10,024 14,044 11,681 11,962 10,490 8,708
Net Earnings
Impairment & Deconsolidation Charges
Net Earnings Excl. Impairment Charges
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Productivity
$2,635
$350
$2,985
101%
Net Earnings
Divestiture Gain
Impairment & Venezuela Charge
$7,144 11,785 11,402 10,904 11,927 12,846 13,436 12,075 10,340 8,684
$1,418 1,585 2,011 -
$4,187 (1,503) -
Net Earnings Excl. Gain and Impairment $11,331 11,785 11,402 10,989 11,927 11,261 11,425 12,075 10,340 8,684
Adjusted Free Cash Productivity 102% 86% 95% 90% 84% 125% 102% 99% 101% 100%