Morgan Stanley Marcellus-Utica Summit September 29, 2015 Pittsburgh, PA
CABOT OIL & GAS ASSET OVERVIEW
2014 Year-End Proved Reserves: 7.4 Tcfe 2014 Production: 531.8 Bcfe 2015E Production Growth: 10% - 18% 2015E Drilling Activity: ~115 net wells
Eagle Ford Shale
Marcellus Shale
~89,000 net acres
~200,000 net acres
>1,300 locations
>3,000 locations
Current Rig Count: 1
Current Rig Count: 3
2015E Drilling Activity: ~45 net wells
2015E Drilling Activity: ~70 net wells 2
WELL POSITIONED TO NAVIGATE A CHALLENGING MARKET IN 2015
Best-in-class asset base provides competitive rates-of-return in the current market environment •
Peer-leading rates of return and EUR per lateral foot in the Marcellus Shale
•
Marcellus: >50% IRR at $2.00 per Mcf realized price
•
Eagle Ford: >50% IRR at $65.00 per Bbl realized price
Strategy is to provide returns-focused growth as opposed to “growth for the sake of growth” •
Cabot expects to generate 10% - 18% production growth in 2015 despite a 45% reduction in drilling and completion spending
•
Modest level of outspend anticipated under current commodity price realizations
Low-cost structure •
2014 total company all-sources finding costs of $0.71 per Mcfe
•
2014 Marcellus-only all-sources finding costs of $0.43 per Mcf
•
2014 total company cash costs1 of $1.27 per Mcfe
•
2014 Marcellus-only cash costs1 of $0.80 per Mcf
Strong balance sheet provides financial flexibility in a low commodity price environment •
Conservative leverage position: Debt / LTM EBITDAX2 of 1.7x at Q2 2015
•
Financial flexibility: Recently increased credit facility commitments to $1.8 billion, with only $383 million of borrowings outstanding as of June 30, 2015
•
Hedge position provides downside protection: ~31% of 2015E natural gas production hedged
1 Excludes
DD&A, exploration expense, and stock-based compensation EBITDAX is a non-GAAP measure defined as net income plus interest expense, income tax expense, depreciation, depletion and amortization, exploration expense, gains and losses resulting from the sale of assets, non-cash gains and losses on derivative instruments, and stock-based compensation expense and other
2
3
2015 OPERATING PLAN AND CAPITAL PROGRAM DOUBLE-DIGIT PRODUCTION GROWTH DESPITE A 45% DECLINE IN CAPITAL SPENDING, HIGHLIGHTING COG’S CAPITAL EFFICIENCY Net Wells Drilled
2015E Capital Program: $900 million
177 (~35%)
FY 2014
~115
FY 2015
Land 4%
Exploration 4%
Production Equipment / Other 12%
Completed Frac Stages Drilling & Completion 80%
(~35%)
FY 2014
FY 2015
Drilling and Completion Capital ($mm)
2015E D&C Capital: $720 million Eagle Ford 40%
$1,315 (~45%)
FY 2014
~$720
FY 2015
Marcellus 60%
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PROVEN TRACK RECORD OF PRODUCTION AND RESERVE GROWTH…
Bcfe
Annual Production (Bcfe) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
531.8 413.6 28.6%
267.7 187.5
130.6
2015 Guidance: 10% - 18%
Liquids
54.5%
Gas
42.8% 43.5%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
Tcfe
Year-End Proved Reserves (Tcfe) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
7.4 5.5 3.8
35.7%
3.0
2.7
Liquids
41.9%
Gas
26.7% 12.3%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E 5
…WHILE MAINTAINING A CONSERVATIVE BALANCE SHEET
Net Debt to EBITDAX1 2.0x 1.7x 1.5x 1.5x
1.4x
1.3x 1.2x
1.0x
0.9x
0.5x
0.0x 2010
1
2011
2012
2013
2014
LTM Q2 2015
EBITDAX is a non-GAAP measure defined as net income plus interest expense, income tax expense, depreciation, depletion and amortization, exploration expense, gains and losses resulting from the sale of assets, non-cash gains and losses on derivative instruments, and stock-based compensation expense and other
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INDUSTRY-LEADING COST STRUCTURE
Operating
Transportation¹
Taxes O/T Income
Cash G&A²
Financing
$2.00 $1.76
Cash Unit Costs ($/Mcfe)
$1.67 $1.50 $1.28
$1.27
$1.26
1H 2015
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00 2011
2012
2013
2014
3-Year F&D Costs: Total Company ($/Mcfe)
$1.30
$1.02
$0.76
$0.68
3-Year F&D Costs: Marcellus Only ($/Mcfe)
$0.65
$0.56
$0.48
$0.43
1 Includes
all demand charges and gathering fees stock-based compensation
2 Excludes
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CABOT’S LOW-COST STRUCTURE IS DESIGNED TO WEATHER ALL COMMODITY CYCLES 2014 Cash Costs Per Unit vs. Appalachia Peers ($/Mcfe)1
Operating Costs
G&A
2014 Production Per Employee vs. Appalachia Peers (Mmcfe)
Interest
$1.25
900
Production Per Employee (Mmcfe)
800
Cash Unit Costs ($/Mcfe)
$1.00
$0.75
$0.50
$0.25
700 600 500 400 300 200 100
$0.00
0 COG
Peer A
Peer B
Peer C
Peer D
Source: 2014 company filings 1 Excludes gathering, transport, processing and marketing costs Peers include: Antero Resources, EQT, Range Resources and Southwestern Energy
Peer B
COG
Peer D
Peer A
Peer C
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MARCELLUS SHALE
CABOT’S MARCELLUS SHALE SUMMARY
~200,000 net acres
Operated rig count: 3
2015E drilling activity: ~70 net wells
2015E average gross daily production: 1.7 – 1.8 Bcf/d –
–
Production levels from quarter to quarter will ultimately be dictated by price realizations and potential curtailments Flexibility to accelerate / decelerate completion capital throughout the year
FY 2014
FY 2015
Average Marcellus Rig Count 6.0 3.5
Reduction in drilling and completion activity in 2015 is predicated on lower anticipated natural gas price realizations throughout Appalachia as we await the inservice of new takeaway capacity
COG plans to accelerate activity upon the in-service of Constitution Pipeline in 2H 2016
COG’s best-in-class Marcellus assets generate >50% IRR at a realized price of $2.00 per Mcf
Average Gross Daily Marcellus Production (Bcf/d) 1.7 – 1.8 1.54
Currently testing 500’ - 800’ downspacing between laterals, which would increase inventory / resource potential / NAV, if successful
FY 2014
FY 2015
Marcellus Drilling and Completion Capital ($mm) $850 ~$430
FY 2014
FY 2015 10
CABOT OIL & GAS CONTINUES TO DRILL THE MOST PROLIFIC WELLS IN THE MARCELLUS SHALE Top 100 Marcellus Wells By Operator1
Percentage of Operator’s Total Wells in Top 100
Peer G Peer H 1 Peer F 1 3 Peer E Peer I 3 1 Peer D 3
Cabot
26%
Peer C
20%
Peer F
Peer C 4 Peer B 7
Peer A 7
10%
Peer G
5%
Peer B
5%
Peer D
2%
Peer A
1%
Peer H
1%
Peer E
1%
Peer I
1%
Cabot 70
Includes content supplied by IHS Global, Inc.; copyright IHS Global, Inc., 2015, All Rights Reserved. Includes all horizontal / directional Marcellus wells in Pennsylvania and West Virginia with a production start date from January 2012 to December 2014 1 As measured by max 30-day rate Note: Peers include Antero Resources, Chesapeake Energy, Chief Oil & Gas, EQT, Inflection Energy, PGE, Shell, Vantage Energy and Warren Resources
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CABOT’S EUR PER FOOT AND F&D COSTS REMAIN BEST-IN-CLASS IN THE MARCELLUS AND UTICA
$1.20
3.5 $1.00 3.0 2.5 2.0
$0.80
$0.60
1.5 $0.40 1.0 0.5
Source: Company presentations as of 08/03/15; peers include Antero Resources, EQT Corporation, Gulfport Energy, Noble Energy, Range Resources and Rice Energy
$0.20
12
Implied F&D Cost ($/Mcfe)
EUR per 1,000 ft. of lateral (Bcfe)
4.0
CABOT’S MARCELLUS SHALE ECONOMICS
2015 Program Well
2014 Program Well
175%
152%
BTAX %IRR
150%
Cabot’s YTD 2015 realized natural gas price: 96% $2.32
125% 100%
102% 75%
51%
50% 25% 0%
65% 17%
37%
8% $1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Realized Natural Gas Price Held Flat ($/Mmbtu) Typical Marcellus Well Parameters EUR: 18 Bcf (3.6 Bcf per 1,000’)
Number of Stages: 25
D&C Cost: $5.6MM
Average Working Interest: 100%
Facilities Cost: $400K
Average Net Revenue Interest: 85%
Lateral Length: 5,000’
Even assuming wider differentials in Appalachia persist, the incremental Cabot Marcellus well produced into the local market generates a rate of return of >55% based on the current NYMEX strip1 Note: Single well economics are all-in and include capital associated with road, pad and production facilities. 1 Assumes NYMEX strip as of August 5, 2015, held flat after year 9. Assumes regional differential of ($1.00) for the life of the well.
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CABOT’S MARCELLUS DRILLING AND COMPLETION COST SAVINGS
Tangibles
Drilling Rig
Drilling Rig 7%
Facilities
Completion Services 31%
Completion Services
Facilities 7%
Frac Services
Tangibles 7%
YTD Marcellus Well Cost Savings By Category
Drilling Services
Marcellus AFE Well Costs By Component
0%
(10%)
(20%) Frac Services 19% (30%)
Drilling Services 29%
(40%)
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CABOT’S MARCELLUS DRILLING EFFICIENCIES
Marcellus Drilling Days (Spud to TD)1
16.9 14.3
13.6
12.8
12.4 10.5 6.9
Q1 2014
1
Q2 2014
Normalized to a 5,000’ lateral length
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Record
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CABOT’S PRICE REALIZATION OUTLOOK IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ADDITION OF NEW TAKEAWAY CAPACITY TO FAVORABLY PRICED MARKETS Gulf Coast / Mid-Atlantic
New England / NY / Canada
100%
% of Sales by Index
90% 80% 70%
6% 20%
9%
43%
TCO
Fixed Price 4% 8%
36%
11%
50%
DTI
19%
8%
60%
40%
NE PA
20%
Access to more favorably priced markets in 2017 / 2018 results in a significant improvement in differentials 24%
30% 49% 20% 10%
3%
25%
15%
0%
Illustrative Differential to NYMEX ($/Mcf)1
Q3 2015E
2017E
2018E
($0.95) – ($1.05)
($0.14) – ($0.45)
$0.18 – ($0.09)
1 Illustrative differential ranges are based on indicative quotes from trading counterparties and third-party research as of 8/5/2015. These projections involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Analysis assumes a 2H 2016 in-service for Constitution Pipeline and a Q3 2017 in-service for Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline. Differential ranges are based on the following gross production ranges – Q3 2015E: 1.55 to 1.60 Bcf/d; 2017E: 2.1 to 2.4 Bcf/d; 2018E: 2.4 to 3.0 Bcf/d.
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Bcf/d
SUPPLY GROWTH IS WANING… DECREASED ACTIVITY AND FLATTENING PRODUCTION IN THE MARCELLUS Marcellus Region Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d)1
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Marcellus Horizontal Rig Count2 NE PA
80 60 40
73
75
27
26
25
28
74 26
SW / Central PA 75 29
WV 67
62
21
18
15 28
26
29
20
33
26
21
21
20
20
17
11
10
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Current
0
Source:
51
1 EIA
Drilling Productivity Report as of July 13, 2015; 2 Baker Hughes North America Rotary Rig Count as of July 31, 2015
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…WHILE DEMAND GROWTH IS ON THE HORIZON APPROXIMATELY 8 BCF PER DAY OF POTENTIAL NEW TAKEAWAY CAPACITY FROM CABOT’S NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA SUPPLY AREA 8 7 6
Bcf/d
5 4 3 2 1 0
TCO East Side Expansion NFG Tuscarora Lateral Algonquin AIM NFG Northern Access 2016 Millennium Expansion Virginia Southside Expansion Source: Public filings; internal estimates
TGP Niagara Leidy Southeast Expansion DTI New Market Millennium Valley Lateral PennEast Access Northeast
NFG Northern Access 2015 Constitution Pipeline NFG Central Tioga Atlantic Sunrise Atlantic Bridge TGP Northeast Energy Direct 18
EAGLE FORD SHALE
CABOT’S EAGLE FORD SHALE SUMMARY
~89,000 net acres
COG Eagle Ford Shale Acreage Position
–
Buckhorn: ~78,000 net acres
Buckhorn ~78K net acres
–
Presidio: ~11,000 net acres
Operated rig count: 1
2015E net liquids production growth: 50% - 60%
Plan to drill ~45 wells and place 40 to 45 wells on production during 2015
Presidio ~11K net acres
Frio La Salle
Atascosa McMullen
Net Eagle Ford Production (Boe/d) 17,889
–
Anticipate ~20 wells in backlog at year-end
–
Flexibility to accelerate completion capital if prices warrant
10,308
Gross drilling inventory: >1,300 locations (assuming 300’ spacing)
Q2 2014
Q2 2015 20
CABOT’S EAGLE FORD SHALE ECONOMICS
2015 Program Well
2014 Program Well
100%
90%
BTAX %IRR
80% 61% Cabot’s YTD 2015 realized oil price: $50.00
60% 40% 20%
18%
40%
38% 27% 17%
7% 0% $45.00
$55.00
$65.00
$75.00
WTI Oil Price Held Flat ($/Bbl) Typical Eagle Ford Well Parameters EUR: 565 MBoe
Number of Stages: 30
D&C Cost: $6.0MM
Average Working Interest: 100%
Facilities / Pumping Unit Cost: $600K
Average Net Revenue Interest: 75%
Lateral Length: 7,700’ Note: Single well economics are all-in and include capital associated with road, pad, production facilities and pumping units.
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CABOT’S EAGLE FORD DRILLING AND COMPLETION COST SAVINGS
YTD Eagle Ford Well Cost Savings By Category
Tangibles
% Reduction Due to Pricing Facilities / Artificial Lift
Facilities / Artificial Lift 10%
Frac Services
Frac Services 42%
Drilling Services
Tangibles 8%
Drilling Rig
% Reduction Due to Efficiency Gains Drilling Rig 6%
Completion Services
Eagle Ford AFE Well Costs By Component
0%
(10%)
(20%) Drilling Services 14% (30%)
Completion Services 20%
(40%)
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CABOT’S EAGLE FORD DRILLING EFFICIENCIES
Eagle Ford Drilling Days (Spud to TD)1
15.0 12.5
11.4 8.8
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
8.7
8.8
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
$296
$276
6.2
Record
Eagle Ford Drilling Costs ($ / Lateral Foot)
$419
$370
$400
$344
$201
Q1 2014
1
Q2 2014
Normalized to a 7,700’ lateral length
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Record
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CABOT’S EAGLE FORD LEASE OPERATING EXPENSE SAVINGS
YTD Eagle Ford Lease Operating Expense Savings
Disposal
Surface Equipment 7%
Labor
Treating
Subsurface Maintenance 4%
Power & Fuel
Power & Fuel 25%
Misc.
Labor 6%
Surface Equipment
Misc. 8%
Subsurface Maintenance
Eagle Ford Lease Operating Expense By Category
0%
(20%)
Compression 5%
Treating 13%
(40%)
(60%) Disposal 32% (80%)
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Thank you The statements regarding future financial performance and results and the other statements which are not historical facts contained in this presentation are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, market factors, the market price of natural gas and oil, results of future drilling and marketing activity, future production and costs, and other factors detailed in the Company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
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