Memory Market Outlook & Samsung’s Strategy th 2007 Nov. Nov. 28 28th 2007
Memory Marketing SAMSUNG Electronics Co., Ltd 1
DISCLAIMER – This presentation includes forward-looking statements which can generally be identified by words such as “believes”, “expects”, “foresees”, “forecasts”, “estimates” or other words or phrases of similar import
– Similarly, such statements that describe the company’s strategy, outlook, objectives, plans, intentions or goals are also forwardlooking statements
– All such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this material
-2-
Contents I
Semiconductor Environment Status
II
Memory Market Prospects
III
Technology & Application Trend
IV
Samsung’s Industry Leadership
3
Memory is Everywhere in Our Life
Portable Game
DVD
NAND
Card for Movie Title
HDTV/STB
NAND for Time Shifting
Game
Graphic DRAM
Desktop PC
UDIMM/SSD
E-book/E-Dictionary
CNS
NAND
moviNAND
Cellular UMPC
SSD
MP3P/PMP
MCP
DSC/DVC
NAND
cSSD/eSSD -4-
UFD
NAND
4
World Economy & Semiconductor Market W/W GDP & semiconductor growth shows strong correlation W/W GDP is growing steadily by 5% since 2004
WW GDP Growth 4.1
4.2
5.4
5.3
37%
5.2
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.0
19%
28% 3.1 2.7
3.7
7%
4% -9%
18%
2.5
9%
9% 4%
1%
WW Semiconductor Growth
-8%
-32% `96
`97
`98
`99
`00
`01
`02
`03
`04
`05
`06
`07
`08 5
* Source : IMF(`07.10) , WSTS(`07.11) -5-
Macro Environmental Analysis
• `08 W/W GDP Growth 4.8% - `07: 5.2% `08: 4.8% - China: 10%, India: 8.4% - 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
• Credit issue caused by Subprime Crisis
• Healthy Growth of Major Applications - PC : 286M (11%↑)
• Oil Price Climbs
- Cellular Phone: 1,277M (12%↑)
• China Inflation Pressure • Weakness of US Dollar • The Possibility of Yen-carry Trade Liquidation
* Source : IMF (Oct 2007), IDC (Oct 2007), DQ (Oct 2007), Morgan Stanley (Nov 2007) -6-
6
Contents I
Semiconductor Environment Status
II
Memory Market Prospects
III
Technology & Application Trend
IV
Samsung’s Industry Leadership
7
Semiconductor Market Forecast Semicon. market is expected to grow 2%~6%, reaching $296B~$313B in `09 【 Growth Rate Forecast 】
【 Revenue Forecast 】 (B$) 330
20%
313 16%
300
296
270
12%
240
8%
210
4%
180
0% `05
`06
`07
`08
6% 2% `05
`09
`06
`07
`08
`09
(Growth)
(B$) `05
`06
`07
`08
`09
`05
`06
`07
`08
`09
DQ
(`07.9)
238
263
273
295
313
7%
10%
4%
8%
6%
IDC
(`07.7)
227
248
260
281
296
7%
9%
5%
8%
5%
Isuppli
(`07.9)
238
261
270
295
301
4%
10%
4%
9%
2%
IC Insight (`07.7)
228
248
253
291
303
7%
9%
2%
15%
4%
WSTS
227
248
257
281
298
7%
9%
4%
9%
6%
(`07.11)
-8-
8
Memory Market Forecast Memory market is expected to grow -1%~11%, reaching $67B~$73B in `09 【 Growth Rate Forecast 】
【 Revenue Forecast 】 (B$) 80
25%
73.4 15%
70
67.2 11%
60 5% 50 0%
-1%
40
-5% `05
`06
`07
`08
`09
`05
`06
`07
`08
(B$)
`09
(Growth)
`05
`06
`07
`08
`09
`05
`06
`07
`08
`09
DQ
(`07.9)
49.8
60.8
63.6
67.4
73.4
4%
22.2%
9%
6%
9%
IDC
(`07.7)
48.5
58.5
57.9
60.5
67.3
3%
21%
-1%
5%
11%
Isuppli
(`07.9)
48.3
59.9
62.0
69.7
68.8
1%
24%
6%
12%
-1%
IC Insight (`07.7)
48.5
58.5
57.1
64.2
67.2
3%
21%
-2%
12%
5%
WSTS
48.5
58.5
59.8
62.6
69.3
3%
21%
2%
5%
11%
(`07.11)
-9-
9
Changing Memory Cycle Repeated boom & bust cycle of Memory industry is changing by growing NAND market contribution 78%
YoY Growth Rate of Combined DRAM & NAND Revenue 57% 48% 25%
4%
NAND Revenue
9% 5%
-38%
-29%
DRAM Revenue
-59%
`91 `92 `93 `94 `95 `96 `97 `98 `99 `00 `01 `02 `03 `04 `05 `06
`07 10
* Source: WSTS (`07.11) - 10 -
Memory Revenue & CAPEX Trend CAPEX growth expected to slow-down in 2008 due to sluggish market
condition in 2007 63 62%
CAPEX YoY G/R 43%
Revenue ($B) W/W
49
47
CAPEX ($B) Samsung A B C D E F Others
60
58 39% 27% 32% 32
33
26 18 14
8.5
`03
`04
`05
`06
* Source : Company Reports, SEC Marketing, Merrill Lynch, WSTS - 11 -
`07
`08 11
Memory Margin Trend Most memory vendors are suffering from sharp decrease of margin Competitiveness gap is getting obvious under tough market condition 【 OP Margin Trend of Memory Makers 】 (Billion $) 5 E D C B A SEC
4
3
2
1
0
`06.Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
`07.Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1 * Source: SEC, Company Reports, Citi, MS, GS
12 - 12 -
DRAM Market Forecast DRAM market is expected to reach $33B~$38B in 2009 EDP portion is decreasing while consumer & communication portion is increasing 【 Revenue Forecast 】
(B$) 45
【 Revenue by Segment 】
2003
40
Others 1% Industrial 9%
38.1
Communications 3% Consumer 7%
35
32.9
EDP 79%
30
25
`05
`06
`07
`08
`09
2008
(B$) `05
`06
`07
`08
Others 1%
Communications 10%
Industrial 6%
`09
Consumer 9% DQ
(`07.9)
25.2
34.3
34.8
32.6
36.2
IDC
(`07.9)
25.6
33.8
33.4
34.1
37.3
IC Insight (`07.7)
25.6
33.8
32.9
36.4
38.1
WSTS
25.6
33.8
32.5
29.7
32.9
EDP 74% (`07.11)
13 * Source: DQ (`07.7) - 13 -
DRAM Market Trend ■ 1Gb portion will reach 63% in 4Q `08 DDR3 portion will Increase steadily in `08 【 Production by Density 】 5%
8%
【 Production by Mode 】
3% 256Mb
4%
8%
5%
4%
10%
9%
3% SDRAM 8% XDR
DDR1
16%
33% 512Mb 60% 53%
65% DDR2 79
84%
78%
72% 63% 1Gb 41% 33%
22% DDR3
`07.1Q 2Q
4%
1%
5%
3Q
4Q `08.1Q 2Q
3Q
`07.1Q 2Q
4Q
* Source: DQ (`07.9) * Bit equivalent base
3Q
6%
4Q `08.1Q 2Q
Others 3Q
4Q
14 - 14 -
NAND Market Forecast NAND market is expected to reach $16B ~ $25B in 2009 Portion for EDP & communication is increasing 【 Revenue Forecast 】
(B$)
【 Revenue by Segment 】
30
25.3
25
2003
Others 1% Industrial 7%
Communications 4%
EDP 14% (UFD 13%)
20
Consumer 74%
10
(Card 68%)
16.3
15
`05
`06
`07
`08
`09
2008
(B$)
Others 1% Industrial 3%
Automotive 3%
EDP 21% `05
`06
`07
`08
`09
DQ
(`07.9)
12.0
13.7
17.0
23.0
25.3
IDC
(`07.9)
10.6
11.5
13.2
14.2
16.8
IC Insight (`07.7)
10.6
11.5
12.1
14.7
16.3
WSTS
10.6
11.5
15.2
20.5
24.2
(`07.11)
Communications 13%
(UFD 11%)
Consumer 59% (Card 32%)
* Classifying Flash Card as Consumer & UFD as EDP 15
- 15 -
* Source: DQ (`07.7), SEC
NAND Flash Market Trend ■ 8Gb will lose the portion steeply and 16Gb will take It in 2008 SD & MS card will be Increasing continuously in 2008 【 Production by Density 】
【 Card Market by Form Factor 】
3%
4%
5%
5% 3% 10%
26%
20%
11%
18% 32Gb 30%
5% 3% 6%
CF xD MMC
31%
40% 55%
21% MS
7% 56% 16Gb
14%
16%
51% 45%
17%
31%
61%
64% SD
`07
`08
42% 14% 8% 3%
`07.1Q 2Q
4%
3Q
19% 8Gb
28%
11% 5% 4Gb 2% 2Gb
3%
4Q `08.1Q 2Q
3Q
`03
4Q
* Bit base
`04
`05
`06
* Unit base
16
* Source: DQ (`07.9) - 16 -
DRAM Demand & Supply Trend In 2008, DRAM oversupply is expected to ease, especially in 2H 【 DRAM Supply/Demand 】
【Market Environment in 2008】 【Demand 】 - PC shipment Forecast (IDC, `07.10) ☞ `07: 258M → `08: 286M (11%↑)
UBS (`07.9) IDC (`07.9) ML (`07.9)
Oversupply 13.2%
• Rigid Notebook growth • Corporate PC upgrade demand
- PC MB/sys Forecast (IDC, `07.10) ☞ `07: 1.4G → `08: 2.0G (48%↑)
7.5% 5.2%
4.9% 3.6%
4.1% 1.7%
1.8%
2.4% 1.1%
2.3%
0.5%
0.6%
【Supply 】
2.3%
0.9%
- DRAM Capex Cutdown
-1.6%
- Challenging Technology migration
Shortage
- 8” Fabs Retirement 2007 2Q
3Q
4Q
2008 2Q
3Q
4Q
17 - 17 -
NAND Demand & Supply Trend In 2008, NAND market is expected to be tightened in 2H Seasonal pattern for NAND demand still exists 【 NAND Supply/Demand 】
【Market Environment in 2008】 【Demand 】 - NAND Demand Drivers
Citi (`07.9) IDC (`07.9) ML (`07.9)
Oversupply
• PMP, Car Navigation, Music phone - Strong Card/UFD Demand due to Beijing Olympic Games
16.6%
8.4% 7.9%
【Supply 】
7.0% 4.3% 2.5% 2.3%
- Decreasing Supply Bit Growth in 2008 - 8” Fabs Retirement
0.9% -0.7%
-1.2%
Shortage 2007 2Q
3Q
-5.0%
4Q
2008 2Q
3Q
4Q
18 - 18 -
Contents I
Semiconductor Environment Status
II
Memory Market Prospects
III
Technology & Application Trend
IV
Samsung’s Industry Leadership
19
Memory Technology (Development) Trend ■ DRAM used to be the technology driver until early 2000 , but now NAND Flash is leading the Memory technology ( NAND > NOR > DRAM > SRAM )
Density (bits)
NAND
DRAM NOR SRAM
20 - 20 -
DRAM Technology Transition ■ PC has been driving DRAM technology evolution `00
`01
`02
`03
`04
`05
`06
`07
`08
`09
`10
`11
DDR1 Introduction
DDR2 DDR3
Volume Transition
DDR1
SDRAM
DDR2
100%
DDR3
8% DDR3
80%
73% DDR2
60%
DDR1
40%
SDRAM
20%
6% 2%
Rambus
0% EDO `00 `01
`02
`03
`04
`05
`06
`07
`08
`09
`10
`11
21
* Source: iSuppli(`07.9) - 21 -
DRAM vs NAND Bit Shipment NAND bit shipment has exceeded that of DRAM since ‘05 (1G Eq, M pcs) 10,000
400%
353% NAND G/R 302%
300% NAND Bit shipment
1,000
225%
DRAM Bit shipment 229%
200%
100 156% 157% 10
82%
97%
88%
126%
85% 61% 73%
41%
64% 40%
94%
100%
51% 48% DRAM G/R
1
0%
`91 `92 `93 `94 `95 `96 `97 `98 `99 `00 `01 `02 `03 `04 `05 `06 `07 22
* Source : DQ, WSTS - 22 -
PC Market Forecast In 2008, PC market will grow by 11% reaching 286M units (IDC) PC main memory will reach 2.0GB/sys in 2008 from 1.4G in 2007 【 W/W PC Shipment & Growth Rate 】 16% (M Units) 16% 13% 13% 11% 315 PC 8 YoY Growth Server 286 10% 10% 258 8 N/B
2% 137 4 31
155 5 39
180 6
208 6 65
229 7
【 PC Memory Contents Trend 】 2,994 2,835 2,576 2,295
7
(MB/Sys) 155 1,633
106 82
240
128 226
D/T
Main 2,211 Memory 1,596
102
111
`02
`03
`04
137
`05
139
`06
272
1,407
49
125
368 Graphic
2,045 253 1,880 209
131
415 NAND
144
148
152
`07
`08
`09
1,770
1,053
`07.Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 `08.Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
* Source: IDC(`07.10) - 23 -
* Source: IDC(`07.10) DQ(`07.9) for Graphic Memory
23
Retail PC Main Memory Trend Main memory size for US retail PC keeps steady growth 2GB : Jan. `07 : 21% → Jun. `07 : 23% → Oct. `07 : 40% 3GB or higher : Jan. `07 : 0% → Jun. `07 : 1% → Oct. `07 : 9% 100%
10%
80%
48% 3GB or Higher 2GB 1GB 512MB
60%
40% 33% 20%
9%
0% 06/12/2
07/1/2
07/2/2
07/3/2
07/4/2
07/5/2
07/6/2
07/7/2
* Source: NPD Data (`07.11)
07/8/2
07/9/2
07/10/2
24 - 24 -
High Density Memory Portion in Retail PC US retail PCs with 2GB or higher Memory are about 50% in October 2GB or higher portion for PCs above $750 is over 70% 【 2GB or Higher Main Memory Portion】 100%
【 Shipment by Price Band】 60%
$1.25K or Higher
80%
50%
$750~1.0K
$500~749
40%
60% $499 or Lower
$500~749
$1.0~1.25K
30%
40% 20% $750~1.0K 20%
$499 or Lower
10%
0%
$1.0~1.25K
0%
Jan `07
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan `07
Mar
May
Jul
$1.25K or Higher Sep Nov
25 * Source: NPD Data (`07.11) - 25 -
Mobile Phone Market Forecast In 2008, mobile phone market will grow 12% reaching 1,277M Units 3G phones adopt 5 times more Memory Compared to 2.5G phones in 2008 - 2008 Mobile Phone MB/sys: 2.5G(127MB) vs 3G(697MB) 59%
65%
46% 22%
YoY G/R 22%
22%
15%
8%
32%
5%
-3%
12%
1,277
1,385
1,144 997 820 674 512 413 (M units)
418 400
284
42 67
78 160
158
336
425
569
3G
256
374MB
180 495
730MB
617
724 799
792
2.5G
377
199MB
172 95MB
Memory Contents 13MB
`98
`99
`00
`01
`02
`03
* Source: DQ (Oct 2007), SEC Marketing - 26 -
21MB
`04