MARCH 24, 2010 • NEW YORK, NEW YORK
2010 Analyst Meeting
Cautionary Statement FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 The following presentation includes forward‐looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. You can identify our forward‐looking statements by words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “believes,” “estimates,” and similar expressions. Forward‐looking statements relating to ConocoPhillips’ operations are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about ConocoPhillips and the petroleum industry in general on the date these presentations were given. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Further, certain forward‐looking statements are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward‐looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially include, but are not limited to, crude oil and natural gas prices; refining and marketing margins; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects due to operating hazards, drilling risks, and the inherent uncertainties in interpreting engineering data relating to underground accumulations of oil and gas; unsuccessful exploratory activities; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; potential failure of new products to achieve acceptance in the market; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing or modifying company manufacturing or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, transporting or refining synthetic crude oil; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations; potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward‐looking statements include other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our Form 10‐K for the year ending December 31, 2009, as updated by our subsequent periodic and current reports on Forms 10‐Q and 8‐K, respectively. ConocoPhillips is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Use of Non‐GAAP Financial Information ‐‐ This presentation includes non‐GAAP financial measures, which are included to help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. A reconciliation of these non‐GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measure is included in the appendix.
1
2010 Analyst Meeting Jim Mulva Chairman & Chief Executive Officer March 24, 2010 New York, New York
ConocoPhillips Today $88 B Capital Employed
International, Integrated, Major oil and gas company
•
7%
~50 BBOE captured resources
•
10 BBOE reserves
•
2.3 MBOED production
•
3.0 MMBPD refining capacity
25% E&P R&M LUKOIL Chemicals Midstream Emerging Business
64%
Geographic Capital Employed
Unique portfolio of assets,
7%
opportunities, processes and people
Significant free cash flow
12% 15% N. America Asia Pacific Russia Caspian Europe Rest of World
63%
Production, reserves, resource and capacity figures reflect 2009 results including LUKOIL. Average capital employed. Corporate distributed across segments. Geographic Russia Caspian includes LUKOIL.
3
Economic and Political Environment Long‐term demand for hydrocarbons expected to increase
Near‐term energy demand increasing as economy recovers Near‐term U.S. natural gas surplus, strong worldwide natural gas demand growth
Refining margins challenged near‐term Difficult political environment
4
Demand for Hydrocarbons 350 300 250
World Oil Demand 120
Renewables Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Oil
Developing OECD
100
Million Barrels Oil per Day
Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day
World Energy Demand
200 150 100 50
80 60 40 20 0
0
2000
2015
2030
2000
2015
2030
Fossil fuels will still be 80% of the market in 2030 Source: International Energy Agency, “2009 World Energy Outlook”. Developing includes other developing and international marine bunker fuel; excludes biofuels.
5
World Oil Demand Resumed Growth Monthly Changes in World Oil Demand: 3‐Month Moving Average
Million Barrels per Day, Y/Y
4 3 2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 ‐3 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Demand growth has resumed, driven by non‐OECD growth Source: Energy Intelligence Group, last data point is January 2010
6
WTI Price Forecasts 120 110
2009 $ / BBL
100
External Range
90 80
Futures 70 60 50 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Most WTI forecasts are $70‐80/BBL short‐term, higher long‐term Futures is NYMEX settle on 2/26/10. Forecasts from November 2009 – February 2010.
7
World Natural Gas Supply and Demand BCFD
450
Projected Global Natural Gas Demand
400 350 300
Non‐US Production Growth
250 200
LNG
150 Non‐US Existing
100 50 0 2009
US Supply
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
Observed post‐plateau decline rate of 6.7% based on IEA database. Source: IEA, Wood Mackenzie (US Data), COP (LNG outlook)
8
U.S. Natural Gas Supply Sources 80
Projected U.S. Natural Gas Demand Alaska
70 CBM
BCFD
60
LNG Imports Net Pipeline Imports
Tight Sands
50 40
Shale
30 20 10
Conventional Existing Production
0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
All sources needed to meet future demand Source: Wood Mackenzie
9
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecasts 9
2009 $/MMBtu
8
Futures 7
External Range
6 5 4 3 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Most HH forecasts are $5‐6/MMbtu short‐term, $6‐8/MMbtu long‐term Futures is NYMEX settle on 2/26/10. Forecasts from December 2009 ‐ February 2010.
10
Global Refinery Capacity vs. Global Oil Demand 100
Million Barrels per Day
95
Global Oil Demand Global Oil Refining Capacity
3MMBD
90 5MMBD
85 3MMBD
80
6MMBD
75 70
8MMBD
65 60 55 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Surplus capacity will shrink due to closures and recovering demand Source: BP Statistical Review 2009, IEA, Purvin & Gertz 2009 GPMO. Includes 900MBD of refinery closures in 2009/10.
11
Refining Margins Forecast Global Light Oil Spread ‐ $/BBL 20
Light‐Heavy Crude Differential ‐ $/BBL 20
External Forecast
External Forecast
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0 2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Refining margins likely to improve from market lows Forecasts from February / March 2010. Global Light Oil spread is average of USGC 3:2:1, NWE 3:1:2, and Singapore 3:1:2.
12
Summary of Consensus Forecasts Oil prices expected to trade in current range over near term and increase with demand recovery
Natural Gas prices expected to rise over time as demand increases absorb growth in U.S. production
Refining margins expected to recover from recent lows
Short‐term:
WTI Crude Oil
$70 ‐ $80/BBL Long‐term: $80 ‐ $100/BBL Short‐term:
Henry Hub Natural Gas
$5 ‐ $6/MMbtu Long‐term: $6 ‐ $8/MMbtu Short‐term:
U.S. Gulf Coast $6 ‐ $8/BBL 3:2:1 Crack Long‐term: Spread
Improved post‐2012
ConocoPhillips’ outlook is similar to consensus views 13
Challenging Political Environment Increased fiscal take, higher taxes
Climate change policy uncertainty Increased regulatory burden Restricted access Fuel‐specific mandates Geopolitical risk and influence of U.S. foreign policy Facing an increasing political headwind 14
Constrained IOC Access Reserves Today NOC reserves (equity access) Full IOC access
12%
Reserves held by Russian companies
Many large resource countries not accessible by IOCs
Some large resources 8%
7%
accessible at unattractive terms
Worldwide competition from 73% NOC reserves (no equity access)
NOCs expanding outside host countries
Increased IOC interest in OECD investments
Only 7% of the world’s reserves are now fully accessible by IOCs Source: PFC Energy, Oil & Gas Journal, BP Statistical Review 2008. Note: Excludes unconventional crude oil and bitumen reserves. IOC = International Oil Company; NOC = National Oil Company
15
Companies Returning to N. America Renewed focus by PetroChina /Athabasca ($1.7 B) Total / UTS ($0.7 B) Total / Syneco ($0.7 B) BP/ Husky ($1.1 B) Statoil / NAOSC ($2.0 B) Shell / BlackRock ($2.1 B) Total / Deer Creek ($1.3 B)
Western Canada Gas Oil Sands
Shell / Duvernay ($5.9 B) Kogas / Encana ($1.1 B)
XOM / XTO Acquisition ($41 B) Marcellus BP / CHK ($1.9 B) Woodford Total / CHK ($2.2 B) ENI / Quicksilver ($0.3 B)
multi‐nationals on North America hydrocarbons
~$70 B in recent transactions
Statoil / CHK ($3.4 B) Mitsui / Anadarko ($1.4 B)
Fayetteville BP / CHK ($1.8 B)
Barnett Haynesville
BG / EXCO ($1.1 B)
Eagle Ford Seller / Buyer (D
Buyer / Seller
BP / Lewis Energy ($0.2 B)
ConocoPhillips already well‐ positioned in North America
Source: Company press releases. Transactions since 2008.
16
Challenges
Exposure to N. America natural gas and refining
Current ROCE below peer average Debt levels above target range Trading at discount to peer group Competition for new resources Balancing growth vs. returns 17
Strategic Options Emphasize absolute production growth • • •
Fully invest in available opportunities Accept incremental projects with marginal economics Higher leverage, no share repurchases
Significant restructuring • • •
Divest or spin out of significant business lines Sale of legacy assets highly tax inefficient Unlikely to realize full value for assets
Focus on generating sustainable value • • •
Asset sales to reduce debt and increase distributions Adjust portfolio over time to higher upstream weighting Focus on improved returns and per share growth metrics
A balanced approach creates shareholder value 18
Key Strategic Objectives Upstream • Exploit captured resource base • 100%+ organic reserve replacement • Grow production / share • Strengthen exploration results • Reduce operating costs • Improve returns on capital
Downstream • Portfolio management • Margin enhancement • Reduce operating cost • Improve returns on capital 19
Key 2010 / 2011 Initiatives Constrain capital program to highest return projects Execute $10 B two‐year asset sales program Reduce LUKOIL interest from 20% to 10% Reduce debt ratio to 20%
Picture
Increase dividend by 10% in 2010 Resume share repurchase program $20 B available for share repurchase / debt reduction in next two years 20
$10 B Asset Sales Program Approximately half in 2010 60‐80% Upstream Potential 2010 Dispositions • Syncrude • REX Pipeline • 10% of Lower 48 and Western Canada portfolio • Remaining U.S. downstream marketing
2010 / 2011 combined impact • • •
Production: ~80 ‐ 120 MBOED Reserves: ~400 ‐ 600 MMBOE Financial gains in aggregate 21
LUKOIL – Sale of 10% Interest
Maintain strategic alliance Maintain board representation / equity accounting Open market sales Complete over 2010/2011 $5 B at recent share price levels Tax efficient Proceeds used for share repurchase Effectively exchanges LUKOIL shares for ConocoPhillips shares 22
Capital Investing Overview Capital Program ‐ $B 19.9
20
2.7
11 ‐ 12 per year
12 8
LUKOIL
Origin
4.8
16.4 16
Base Capital
13.7
12.9
2006
2007
12 ‐ 13 per year
15.1 12.0
4 0 2008
2009
2010 ‐ 2011 2012 ‐ 2014 23
Annual Dividend Increases COP Quarterly Dividend Growth
13.5% annualized growth
Quarterly dividend (cents/share)
55 47
50
41 36 31 25 20
since 2002
22
Eight consecutive annual increases
Current Yield = 4.3% Less than 20% of operating cash flow
Annual increases expected '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Current yield based on share price as of 3/15/2010. Percentage of operating cash flow based on First Call estimates for 2010.
24
2010 Peer Capex & Dividends vs. Cash Flow Capital Expenditures
Dividends
Free Cash Flow
120%
% of 2010E Cash Flow
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% COP
XOM
BP
CVX
TOT
RDS
Largest free cash flow percentage among peer group Source: Company reports, First Call Estimates.
25
Path to Increased Shareholder Value 2010 / 2011 Two‐Year Cash Sources and Uses ‐ $B 60 50
5 10
40
24
30 20
5 – 8
6 35
5 7 ‐ 10
20
10 0 Cash From Operations
Asset Sales & LUKOIL
Capital Program & Dividends
Available Cash
Debt Reduction
Share Add'l Capex / Repurchase Add'l Share Repurchase
Cash from operations estimated as 2x 2010 First Call estimates
26
Key 2010 / 2011 Results Adjusted Net Income ‐ $B
Cash From Ops ‐ $B
Capital Program ‐ $B
25
25
25
20
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2008
Share Repurchase ‐ $B 10
2009
2010E
2011E
Total Debt ‐ $B
6 4 2 0 2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2009
2010E
2011E
E&P Income ‐ $/BOE
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
8
2008
20 15 10 5
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
0 2008
2009
2010E
2011E
Net income attributable to ConocoPhillips. 2010E and 2011E net income and cash from ops based on First Call estimates as of 2/26/2010. See appendix for additional information.
27
E&P Production per Share Growth Returns focus creates short‐ term production plateau
0.56
BOE Production / share
0.52
Share repurchases create near‐term production per share growth
0.48
0.44
Long‐term production growth 0.40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Share repurchases accelerate per share production growth Excludes LUKOIL.
28
Growth in Returns Improve portfolio via asset sales program
Constrain capital / invest at
Capital Efficiency ‐ ROCE and CROCI ROCE
25%
CROCI
20%
competitive F&D costs 15%
Maximize asset uptime
10%
Reduce operating costs
5%
Modest increase in market
0%
returns
2009
2012
2009
2012
Improved returns – improved valuation See appendix for additional information.
29
Strategy Implementation 2009 Position
2012 Outlook
Long‐Term Expectation
72% / 28%
73% / 27%
85% / 15%
E&P 5‐year F&D Cost / BOE
$16.42
~$15
~$15
E&P 5‐year Reserve Replacement
122%
100%+
100%+
E&P Production ‐ MMBOED
1.85
~1.7
2 ‐ 3% growth
Annual E&P Production per Share
.46
3% growth
3 ‐ 5% growth
Refining Crude Capacity ‐ MMBPD
2.7
2.0 ‐ 2.2
1.8 ‐ 2.0
CROCI
18%
~21%
Competitive
Shareholder Distribution as % of Cash Flow
23%
~40%
~40%
Debt‐to‐Capital Ratio
31%
~20%
15 ‐ 20%
Key Metrics Portfolio Balance (E&P / R&M)
Near‐term and long‐term improvement in key metrics See appendix for additional information.
30
Decisive Actions to Increase Value
Sell assets and reduce debt Increase ROCE / CROCI 10 BBOE resources to reserves in 10 years Grow production per share 3% per year Increase distributions Closing the Valuation Gap 31
2010 Analyst Meeting John Carrig President & Chief Operating Officer March 24, 2010 New York, New York
Total Company Safety Total Recordable Incident Rate Incidents per 200,000 hours worked Contractors Employees
1.2
2009 combined workforce performance improved
1.0
Reduced process safety
0.8
incident rate
0.6
Reduced permit /
0.4
regulatory exceedances
0.2 0.0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Our goal is zero injuries, illnesses and incidents 33
2009 Accomplishments Improved HSE performance $2 B cost reduction $3 B capital expenditure reduction 141% reserve replacement 4% growth in E&P production Improved operating efficiencies
34
Continued Reduction in Controllable Costs 14% Reduction ’08 to ‘09 7% operational + 7% market
$B
2010 Goal
15
+5% operational reduction
Drive 2010 costs below 2009 levels through: • Procurement savings
10
• Optimized turnarounds • Lower Corporate overhead
5
• Emphasis on unit costs • Increased accountability
0 2008
2009
2010 Target
Targeting a return to 2005 ‐ 2006 levels Assumes 2009 market conditions, normalized for new project scope and turnaround activity.
35
Upstream Controllable Costs Reduction of 13% in 2009 •
$1.1 B savings
Top quartile within many major operating basins
Upstream Controllable Costs ‐ $B 9 8 7 6 5
Future opportunities • • • •
Portfolio rationalization Strategic sourcing Supplier management Operating efficiency
4 3 2 1 0 2008
2009
Continued focus on reducing costs in 2010 Controllable costs includes production and operating expenses, selling, general, and administrative expenses, and exploration expenses excluding dry hole costs and lease impairments.
36
Downstream Margin Enhancement Controllable cost reduction of 16% in 2009 • ~$1 B savings
Downstream Controllable Costs ‐ $B 7 6
2010 Improvements • • • • • •
Additional controllable cost reduction opportunities Increase clean product yields 1%
5 4 3
Optimization
2
Strategic sourcing
1
Supplier management
0
Margin improvements
2008
2009
R&M will deliver $500 MM in business improvements 37
Competitive SG&A Costs SG&A Costs 140
Indexed (2005 = 100)
130
Selling, general and administrative costs 19% below 2005 levels
Reduced costs during period of industry cost growth
Continuing focus on cost constraint as markets recover
Sustainable systems and processes in place
Peer Range ConocoPhillips
120 110 100 90 80 70 60 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Demonstrated cost discipline 38
Procurement Excellence Exceeded 2009 cost reduction targets
2010 Initiatives
Industry is expecting slow recovery Carry momentum from 2009 into 2010
Savings ‐ $MM
1000
500
0 2009 Actual 2010 Target
High Impact Areas Contract Services Logistics Maintenance Engineering
39
2010 Capital Program By Segment
By Region
R&M $1.3
Europe, Africa & Mideast $2.7
Asia $3.2 E&P $9.7 North America $5.1
By Product Refining & Other $1.5 Exploration $1.4
LNG $1.5 Gas $2.3
Oil $4.5
All figures in $B. Capital program by segment and by region includes $0.2B in Other.
40
Operating Efficiency Refining Availability 100%
Efficiency continues to improve 2009 Refining LPO volumes
95% 90%
down 27% vs. 2008
85% 80%
2008
2009
E&P Uptime
2009 E&P Direct Operating Efficiency best in 3 years
2010 focus on:
100% 95%
• Asset & Operating Integrity • Planning & Scheduling • Maintenance & Reliability
90% 85% 80%
2008
2009
Efficiency continues to improve 41
Upstream Production Constraining near‐term
Production ‐ MMBOED Production
2.5
Dispositions
reinvestment rate • Not compelled to drill to hold
2.0
most acreage
Near‐term production at
1.5
2008 levels 1.0
• Per share production growth 3% near term, 3 ‐ 5% long term
0.5
3% underlying and 8% per 0.0 2008
2009
2010E
2014E
2019E
share reserves growth
Near‐term production plateau, long‐term production growth Excludes LUKOIL.
42
Operations Summary Building on strong 2009 safety and operating efficiency
Driving further accountability on cost reductions • Operating efficiency • Project execution
Driving on‐time start up of major projects
Maximizing production while growing reserves Operational excellence is the foundation for value growth 43
2010 Analyst Meeting Willie Chiang Senior Vice President Refining, Marketing & Transportation March 24, 2010 New York, New York
Refining and Marketing Post merger • • •
Strong operating excellence Competitive, low‐cost businesses $5 B+ in asset sales
2010 • • •
Drive $500 MM improvement Reduce capital spend $1 B in asset sales
Long‐term expectation • • •
R&M 15% of COP portfolio 10%+ returns Positive net cash flow
Deliver shareholder value 45
2009 Improvement Results Cut $1 B in controllable costs Optimized crude and product slate, clean product yield improved by 1%
Reduced 200 MBD of marginal crude runs
Downstream Personnel Headcount 25,000
47% Reduction
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
U.S. Refinery Utilization ‐ % 96 92
Generated $700 MM+
ConocoPhillips Industry EIA
87
proceeds from dispositions 2007
2008
2009
Better than industry average utilization 46
Peer Comparison U.S. Operations Income ‐ $/BBL
Core refining business with integrated low‐cost marketing and logistics
6
5‐year ROCE 16%
Peer Range 5 4
Completing 5‐year plan to divest company‐owned retail assets • United States • Southeast Asia • Select European markets
3 2 1 0 (1) 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Strong relative performance See appendix for additional information.
47
Outlook Challenging market, regulatory and legislative environment
Further refining rationalization
Global Light Oil Crack1 ‐ $/BBL 20 15
External Range
10 5
expected
Global economic recovery on
0 2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Light‐Heavy Crude Differential ‐ $/BBL
the horizon
20
COP portfolio positioned to respond well to improving light‐heavy differential
15
External Range
10 5 0 2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Structured to be competitive 1
Average of USGC 3:2:1, NWE 3:1:2, and Singapore 3:1:2.
48
2010 Improvement Initiatives Reduce operating expenses • • • • •
Alliance Billings
Material, service and supply costs Streamline organization Energy efficiency Technology improvements Infrastructure investments
Optimization • • •
2008 Solomon Operating Cost Peer Ranking
Crude and feedstock selection Improve clean product yield Create turnaround flexibility
D
ng I rivi
m
s en t m ve pro
Borger Ferndale Humber Lake Charles Melaka
San Francisco
MiRO
Wood River
Ponca City
Whitegate
Bayway
Sweeny
Wilhelmshaven
Los Angeles
Trainer
Bottom Tier
Middle Tier
Top Tier
U.S. Cost Advantage Over Industry1 ‐ $/BBL 0.75 0.56 0.50 0.20
0.25 0.01 0.00 2004
2006
2008
Capture $500 MM in business improvements 1
Calculated by Solomon as non‐energy‐related operating costs, ConocoPhillips vs. industrial average per total processed inputs.
49
Capital Expenditures No reduction in capital for operating excellence and asset integrity
Capital Program ‐ $B 3
Sustaining / Reliability Strategic Investments
Regulatory 2009 DD&A
Reduced strategic capital 2
from prior years
Completing committed regulatory projects
Base capital targeted at DD&A levels
36%
1
0 2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
Disciplined capital spend 50
Strategic Investments WRB Wood River CORE Project • • •
Wood River Refinery (WRB JV ‐ COP/Cenovus)
Start up mid 2011 Integration with Canada production Improves realized margin $4.00/BBL
Yanbu Export Refinery Opportunity • •
400 MBD high conversion refinery Final investment decision mid 2010
WRB Wood River CORE Project
Wilhelmshaven Upgrade Project •
Project deferred
Enhancing margin and improving returns 51
Downstream Portfolio Management Asset sales • • •
$5 B+ of assets sold since 2003
1.6
$1 B in asset sales in 2010
1.2
Evaluating further dispositions
0.8
Implement portfolio options at the right time and value • COP refinery combinations • Refinery joint ventures • Commercial arrangements to capture synergies and avoid capital
•
Asset Sales1 ‐ $B
International opportunities
0.4 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
Dispositions and Joint Ventures2 Refineries Terminals Miles of Pipeline Marketing Retail Sites
6 39 2,800 ~3,000
Positioning portfolio for superior performance 1 2
Gross contractual proceeds ex‐WRB joint venture. Since 2002
52
Refining and Marketing Summary Deliver operating excellence Drive $500 MM improvement Maintain disciplined capital spend
Pursue portfolio options aggressively
Streamlined portfolio will yield 10%+ returns Delivering improved returns and cash generation 53
2010 Analyst Meeting Ryan Lance Senior Vice President – E&P International
Kevin Meyers Senior Vice President – E&P Americas
Larry Archibald Senior Vice President – Exploration & BD March 24, 2010 New York, New York
Exploration & Production Strategy
100%+ organic reserve replacement
2 ‐ 3% long‐term production growth
Convert 10 BBOE resources to reserves over 10 years
Competitive F&D cost
High‐impact exploration
Consistently high‐grade portfolio
Improve returns
Operational and safety excellence Focused on value creation and improving capital efficiency 55
Global Overview Alaska 270 MBOED Largest oil and gas producer
Canada 290 MBOED
North Sea 390 MBOED
Russia / Caspian 50 MBOED
High value exploitation
Large resource potential and well positioned
World class SAGD1 portfolio and new resource plays
China 50 MBOED High margin oil production
Lower 48 490 MBOED Competitive non‐ conventional opportunities
South East Asia 120 MBOED Emerging core assets
Total 2009 Production 1.85 MMBOED ~80% OECD 2010 Exploration & Appraisal activity
Middle East & Africa 100 MBOED Poised for significant production growth
Australia 90 MBOED LNG project pipeline
Diverse and growing portfolio underpinned by strong OECD base Excludes LUKOIL. 1 Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage
56
E&P Cash Margins ‐ $/BOE 1‐year
3‐year
5‐year
25
25
25
20
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0
CVX COP TOT
BP
RDS XOM
CVX COP XOM TOT
BP
RDS
COP
CVX XOM TOT RDS
BP
Consistent delivery of top quartile margins Cash contribution is calculated as income plus DD&A based on total BOE production. All companies income adjusted to exclude certain non‐core impacts. See appendix for further information.
57
Discovered Resource YE2009 Resource by Product ‐ BBOE
YE2009 Resource by Region ‐ BBOE Russia Caspian Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
Lower 48 Alaska
Gas 37%
Australia
Liquids 63%
North Sea
Canada Arctic Canada Gas Canada Syncrude
Canada SAGD
43 BBOE resource with long‐life, low‐decline assets Excludes LUKOIL. Resource includes proved, probable, and possible reserves and contingent resource; excludes prospective resource.
58
Proved Reserves Replacement Reserves Replacement ‐ %
2010 ‐ 2014 Reserve Additions Russia Caspian
200%
Exploration
Middle East & Africa 150%
Lower 48 Alaska Asia Pacific
100%
Australia
50%
North Sea
Canada
0%
F&D ($/BOE)
2005 ‐ 2009
2009
2010E ‐ 2014E
16.42
10.07
~15.00
Reserves replacement >100% at competitive F&D costs Excludes LUKOIL.
59
Production & Reserves Growth Production ‐ MBOED 2.5
Liquids
Gas
Proved Reserves ‐ BBOE
Dispositions
12
2014E 5‐yr avg. RRR >100 %
10
2.0
Dispositions
8
LNG
LNG
1.5
Gas 6
Gas
4
Heavy oil
1.0
0.5
Heavy oil
2
0.0
Oil
Oil
2009
2014E
0 2008
2009
2010E
2014E
2019E
Excludes LUKOIL.
60
2010 Capital Program Capital ‐ $B
Major Projects
12 10 Other
8 6
FCCL partnership
Kashagan
Surmont 2 Jasmine, Clair Ridge & GEA2
4 2
Qatargas 3 APLNG
0 2008
2009
2010
Maintenance
Major projects
1 Exploitation
Exploration
Bohai II
Malaysia
Lower 48 and Canada exploration1
Focusing on exploration and major projects to create value 2008 capital program amount excludes $5.7 B for major acquisitions and lease purchases. 1 Excludes Canada heavy oil 2 Greater Ekofisk Area
61
L48 & Canada Competitive Advantages
21 MM net acres with extensive optionality and limited lease expiries
~14 TCFE net proved reserves (85% proved developed)
~25% of liquids production by volume
Bakken 240
Significant shale position acquired at low cost
Panhandle/ Anadarko 1,500
Competitive non‐conventional opportunities
Leveraging expertise internationally
Horn River 100 Montney 170 Deep Basin 3,300
San Juan 1,300 Permian 1,050
Figures are approx. net acres held (‘000s)
Barnett 100 Eagle Ford 240
Excludes Alaska, Canada heavy oil, and Gulf of Mexico assets.
62
2010 L48 & Canada Programs Capital Spend by Resource
Other Permian
Onshore Drilling
Bakken
Other Eagle Ford San Juan
WCG Deep Basin
Shale play Tight sands / CBM2 Other3
Barnett Other
~40% ~45% ~15%
Investing $1.2 B in 20101
Reserves accessed ~90 MMBOE
Focus on shale plays, oil and NGL rich assets & proven low cost basins Adds 40 MBOED production 2010 average F&D = $13/BOE
1
Includes production and exploration drilling. Excludes Alaska, Canada heavy oil, and Gulf of Mexico assets. Coalbed methane 3 Conventional oil and gas 2
63
Lower 48 & Canada Resource Plays Cost of service ($/MMbtu)1
COP acreage
Other resource plays
10 1,300 M acres
3,300 M acres
240 M acres
240 M acres
100 M acres
8
6
4
2
Sa n
Ju an
CB De M ep B o Gr an ss ie r it e W Ha ash yn es vi Ca lle n a Ma rc da D ellu ee s p Ba sin Ba Ba rn et t ( kke n2 Ea Tie r 1 gle Fo & 2 ) rd (R ic M h) on Fa tne y ye tt e v Po Ea ille g w de le F or W r Ri ve d oo r df or CBM d Ar ko W Ho ma oo df r o r n R i d An ver ad ar W ko at te nb ur Je an g M ar P i ie c M an ean nv ce i l l Ba e CB rn M et t ( Ti er 3)
0
Competitive opportunity set Sources: Morgan Stanley & COP internal 1 Henry Hub basis required for 10% IRR. 2 Value based conversion of $72/BBL = $6/MMbtu due to high liquids yield.
64
2010 Capital – Exploitation Programs Alaska
1 2
Investing $340 MM in 2010 Drilling at WNS1 and Prudhoe satellites; CTD2 program at Kuparuk Reserves accessed ~35 MMBOE Adds 20 MBOED production
Australia
Investing $100 MM in 2010 6 well program at Bayu‐Undan Reserves accessed ~8 MMBOE Adds 4 MBOED production 2010 average F&D = $13/BOE
2010 average F&D = $10/BOE
Western North Slope Coiled tubing drilling
65
2010 Capital – Exploitation Programs United Kingdom
Investing $170 MM in 2010
Reserves accessed ~25 MMBOE
Drilling at Southern North Sea, Britannia, J‐Block, Clair and others Adds 12 MBOED production 2010 average F&D = $6/BOE
Norway
Investing $360 MM in 2010
Reserves accessed ~45 MMBOE
Drilling at Greater Ekofisk, Heidrun, Alvheim and others Adds 18 MBOED production 2010 average F&D = $8/BOE 66
World Class Canadian SAGD Portfolio Cumulative Steam Oil Ratios ‐ BBL/BBL Christina Lake
Foster Creek
Surmont I
Surmont lifecycle
8
Peers
Exceptional 15+ BBOE resource
2nd largest SAGD producer in Canada
Leading steam oil ratios
• Lower capital and operating costs • Lower energy usage and emissions • Smaller surface footprint
6
4
Selective manufacturing approach to projects
Potential for technology advances
2
0
Efficient and repeatable conversion of resource into production Source: FirstEnergy Report ‐ December 2009 and COP internal
67
Canadian SAGD Portfolio Margins SAGD Earnings1 ‐ $/BOE 80
2008 WTI avg. $100/BBL
FCCL & Surmont
2009 WTI avg. $62/BBL
60
40
20
0 2008
2009
DD&A
Fuel cost
Non‐fuel O&O
Taxes & other
Profit margin / bitumen barrel
2010 capital = $950 MM2 Project F&D = $8 ‐ $12/BOE3
Robust margins and returns 1
Surmont and FCCL (excludes after tax impact of the interest expense on the joint venture obligation owed by COP to FCCL) Combined capital associated with FCCL contribution and Surmont 3 $2009 real including all E&P capital for currently sanctioned projects 2
68
Canadian SAGD Production Growth MBOED (NBR)1
MBOED (NBR)1
140 Saleski (WI 100%)
120
350
2007 to 2014 CAGR ~20%
2007 to 2019 CAGR ~20%
300
Syncrude (WI 9.03%)
100
250
80
200
Surmont (WI 50%)
Thornbury (WI100%)
60
150
40
100
Christina Lake (WI 50%)
20
Surmont 4.7
50
Clyden 0 Clyden (WI 100%) 2007 (WI 100%) Foster Creek (WI Foster 50%) Creek (WI 50%)
0
2008
2009
2010E
Foster Creek
2014E
Christina Lake
2007
2019E
Surmont
Strong production growth Foster Creek and Christina Lake production reflects operator’s forecast 1 Net Before Royalty
69
Australia Pacific LNG
Largest, best‐developed CBM resource Premium acreage in best coal fairways Production capacity for sales to domestic market exceeds 230 MMSCFD gross
APLNG Resource Maturation ‐ TCF 35 30 25
3 LNG trains & existing contracts1
20 2 LNG trains & existing contracts1
15 10
Steady, secure source of low‐risk supply
Total 3P reserves
5 0
Proven CBM and LNG expertise
Transaction
YE2009
Proved
Probable
YE2014E Possible
High value, low cost of service and access to growing markets Some of APLNG’s coalbed methane reserves and resources are subject to reversionary rights. 1 4.5 MTPA train size; Existing contracts represent domestic gas sales and ramp gas sales.
70
APLNG ‐ Competitive Advantages Queensland Gas Resource1 ‐ TCF
Cost of Service2 ‐ $/MMbtu Peer projects
APLNG
Peer average
10
9 BG
8 Shell / Arrow
7
6 Santos / Petronas
Possible
to ne he at s
14
Pl ut o
12
W
Probable
10
on
8
CL NG
6
Go rg
Proved
4
Q
2
GL NG
0
AP LN G
5
High‐quality and most defined resource base Some of APLNG’s coalbed methane reserves and resources are subject to reversionary rights. 1 Source: COP view based on ASX filings or external data 2 Source: Wood Mackenzie, Feb 2010 – Free on Board basis; 12% IRR
71
APLNG ‐ Key Milestones Milestone
Timing
Site selected
Complete
Commence FEED
Underway
Resource maturation Binding HOA1 for LNG sales
On schedule Q3/Q4 2010
Final Investment Decision
Q4 2010
2010 capital = $850 MM Multi‐train LNG project Project F&D = $6 ‐ $8/BOE2
First LNG production
Q4 2014
Project on track to deliver a long‐term Australasian natural gas business 1 2
Heads of Agreement $2009 real including E&P capital and excluding acquisition costs of $4 ‐ $5/BOE.
72
Long‐Term Incremental Production MBOED (net) 800
600
400
200
0 2010
2015 Canadian SAGD projects
2020
2025 APLNG
2030
2035
Qatargas 3
Long life, low decline projects with combined F&D ~$10/BOE Canadian SAGD production is net after royalty and includes all currently identified stages of development excluding Thornbury, Clyden & Saleski.
73
2010 Capital ‐ Major Growth Projects Qatargas 3
Gumusut / KBB / Malikai
Photo courtesy of Qatargas
1 2
Investing $450 MM in 2010 First production second half 2010 ~80 MBOED net peak production Agreements in place for all LNG sales Competitive F&D cost
Investing $300 MM in 2010 Multiple deepwater developments ~0.4 BBOE net discovered resource1 ~70 MBOED net peak production Project F&D = $12 ‐ $16/BOE2
Includes proved, probable, and possible reserves and contingent resource; excludes prospective resource. $2009 real including all E&P capital.
74
2010 Capital ‐ Major Growth Projects Bohai Phase II
Bohai WHP‐B
1 2
Investing $250 MM in 2010 60 MBOED net current production ~0.5 BBOE net discovered resource1 ~70 MBOED net peak production Project F&D = $10 ‐ $14/BOE2
Jasmine
Judy platform
Investing $200 MM in 2010 First production in 2012 Additional exploration upside ~35 MBOED net peak production Project F&D = $14 ‐ $18/BOE2
Includes proved, probable, and possible reserves and contingent resource; excludes prospective resource. $2009 real including all E&P capital.
75
Shah Gas Project Large gas/condensate resource Development plan • • •
1 BCFD gas processing plant Natural gas and liquid pipelines Sulfur exporting facilities at Ruwais Ruwais
Joint Venture and Field Entry Agreements signed July 2009 Shah Gas Project
Project sanction decision in 2010
76
2009 ‐ 2014 Major Project Startups Ekofisk South Alpine West (CD5) Lookout (CD6)
Christina Lake 1 C/D Foster Creek 1 D/E
Ekofisk South Jasmine Kashagan 1
Foster Creek
Bohai Phase II El Merk
Golden Pass Eagle Ford
Faregh 2 NLNG T4‐6
Qatargas 3 North Belut Bawal South Belut Suban 3 Caltex 3
MBOED ‐ Net from 2009‐2014 startups1 500
Su Tu Den NE
400
Panyu Growth Su Tu Den NE Gumusut KBB / Malikai
APLNG
300 200 100
2010 to 2014 startups
0 2010 1
2011
2012
2013
2014
2009 startups Cuu Long Tai Bien FPSO
Production profile includes pre 2014 ramp‐up volumes associated with upstream development.
77
2015+ Major Project Startups Eldfisk II Tommeliten Alpha Tor Redevelopment Clair II
Parsons Lake Amauligak Umiak
Prudhoe WRD1 ANS Gas WNS Developments2
Foster Creek 1 F/G/H Christina Lake 1 E/F/G Narrows Lake Surmont II Surmont III+ Thornbury / Clyden / Saleski
Kashagan 2+ Kalamkas Aktote Kairan Bohai Phase III Tiber
N Gialo NC‐98 Waha Development Uge
MBOED ‐ Net from 2009‐2015+ startups 1,000
Pisagan Petai Ubah Kamunsu East Su Tu Nau Su Tu Trang Sunrise Poseidon
800 600 400
2015+ startups
200
2010 to 2014 startups
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 2
2009 startups
Western Resource Development includes IPAD and Gas Partial Processing projects. Western North Slope Development includes Fiord West and Rendezvous.
78
Long‐Term Resource Outlook Exploration & BD
Reserves 8 BBOE
Expect to convert 10 BBOE resources over next 10 years
Resources 35 BBOE
43 BBOE Reserves
8 BBOE
Excludes LUKOIL.
79
Exploration Key Messages
2009 Results
• Poseidon and Tiber significant discoveries • Resource additions exceeded 2009 production • Step change improvement in finding costs
Building deeper portfolio focused on material exploration opportunities
• • • • • •
Kazakhstan, Caspian Sea N‐Block Gulf of Mexico Sales 208 & 210 Bangladesh deepwater blocks Horn River basin shale gas play acreage Poland shale gas exploration agreement China CBM agreement
Participating in discoveries and improving the portfolio 80
Progressing Giant Discoveries Tiber KC 102 #1 well
Poseidon Potential appraisal well location
Salt
Lower Tertiary Pay Zone
~10 Miles
Tiber appraisal well and proprietary seismic program in 2010
Maturing additional Lower Tertiary opportunities
Kronos‐1 well in progress Poseidon‐2 well confirmed downdip limits anticipated from first well
• •
Continuity of thick Lower Plover C sands Potential upside pay found in shallower Montara section
Poseidon & Tiber appraisals in 2010 81
2010 Exploration & Appraisal Activity Alaska Chukchi Sea: Environmental and drilling studies
North Atlantic & Europe UK & Norway: Central Graben HPHT Mid‐Norway Eastern Canada: Laurentian basin Poland: Shale gas
North America onshore Horn River Basin Eagle Ford, Bakken, Barnett
Caspian Sea Kazakhstan: N Block
Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Lower Tertiary play focus
South America Peru: Maranon basin seismic
Wildcat & appraisal drilling or G&G Non‐conventional drilling or G&G Exploitation & tie‐back drilling
Africa Libya: Waha Nigeria: Onshore OMLs
Asia Pacific Australia: Poseidon appraisal Malaysia: Satellite tie‐backs Indonesia: Arafura Sea & Makassar Straits Bangladesh: Deepwater seismic China: Bohai exploitation, Qinshui CBM
Diversified and balanced global portfolio 82
Caspian Sea – Block N Kashagan Kashagan discovery discovery
World class petroleum system
Providing drilling & subsurface expertise to Joint Operating Company
KAZAKHSTAN
Aqtau
NBlock N Block
•
COP 24.5%
•
Mubadala 24.5%
•
Kazmunaigaz 51%
Rak More wildcat to spud 2H 2010
Nursultan wildcat in 2011
Screening other Caspian opportunities
TURKMENISTAN Baku
Caspian Sea
Giant prospects in proven petroleum system 83
Gulf of Mexico – 2010 Coronado Wildcat
Shenandoah Discovery
Salt
Coronado Prospect
3 mi
Mature, high quality Lower Tertiary prospect near 2009 Shenandoah discovery
In area with high quality reservoir and fluids
Coronado well to spud 2Q 2010
• • •
COP working interest = 29% Planned total depth ~34,000 ft Water depth = 5,500 ft
Continuing to drill large wildcats in Lower Tertiary play 84
2010 Resource Play Exploration Horn River, B.C. Testing 100,000 acre position in heart of emerging play Montney, B.C. 170,000 acres
Eagle Ford, Texas Accelerating pace of drilling on 240,000 acres and expanding limits of the play
Bakken, N. Dakota Accelerating drilling program on >240,000 acres
Poland Testing shale gas play in good gas market. Option on 70% WI in 1 MM acres
Qinshui Basin, China Option for 35% WI in >1 MM acres. Using SIS1 drilling to unlock potential of low perm anthracites
Barnett, Texas Expanding footprint in best parts of play, currently 100,000 acres
Sichuan Basin, China Expanding into China shale gas
Ramping up in proven resource plays – pilots in new frontier plays 1
Surface in Seam
85
Exploration Forward Path Appraising 2009 discoveries Continue building bigger, more balanced portfolio of high‐impact prospects/plays • Adding large prospects in proven
• • •
conventional plays Expanding footprint in promising deepwater plays Early mover positions in prospective frontier basins Early mover in leading North American and International resource plays
Continuing improvement in exploration performance 86
Exploration & Production Summary
Geographically diverse portfolio with high‐ margin OECD assets
Disciplined North American exploitation that maintains optionality
Growth portfolio of high‐margin, long‐life, low‐decline assets
10 BBOE resources converted to reserves over next 10 years at competitive F&D costs
High‐impact exploration delivering results
Focused on value creation and improved capital efficiency 87
2010 Analyst Meeting Jeff Sheets Senior Vice President – Planning & Strategy March 24, 2010 New York, New York
LUKOIL Equity Ownership 20% interest moving to 10% over 2 years Market Cap of $50 B • •
Russian and London exchanges Active markets with good liquidity
Operating Statistics1 • • •
2.2 MMBPD production 17.5 BBOE proved reserves 1.3 MMBPD refining capacity
BBB Credit Rating Dividend yield of 2.8%1 COP net cash investment = $6.4 B Book value of ConocoPhillips' investment in LUKOIL was $6,861 million at December 31, 2009. 1 Source: LUKOIL Company website
89
DCP Midstream Joint Venture 50 / 50 JV with Spectra Energy 10th year of operation Leading gas gathering and processer • • •
6 Bcf/day Largest U.S. NGL producer Located in most major gas basins
Standalone entity • • • •
~$3 B distributions to COP over last five years $8 B total assets COP capital employed = capital employed growth 96
Shift in Capital Employed % of Total Capital Employed Contribution 100%
Legacy Assets
ROCE
90%
R&M
80%
L48 & Canada Gas
70%
13%
52%
63%
60% 50% 40%
7% Total ROCE
1%
30%
13% Total ROCE
26% 23%
20% 10%
1%
22%
14%
0%
2009
2012
Portfolio shift helps drive returns improvement See appendix for additional information.
97
Growth in Returns Improve portfolio via asset sales program
Constrain capital / invest at
Capital Efficiency ‐ ROCE and CROCI ROCE
25%
CROCI
20%
competitive F&D costs 15%
Maximize asset uptime
10%
Reduce operating costs
5%
Modest increase in market
0%
returns
2009
2012
2009
2012
Improved returns – improved valuation See appendix for additional information.
98
Distributions – 2004 to 2009 Total Distributions as % of Cash From Operations 100%
Net Share Repurchase
90%
Dividends
80% 70% 60%
Peer Average = 45%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
COP
CVX
TOT
RDS
BP
XOM
Capacity to increase distributions Source: Company filings.
99
Distributions Price/Cash Flow vs. Cash Distribution 2010E vs. 2004‐2009 8
will improve trading multiples
R2 = 0.66
XOM
Distributions moving from
7
Price/CF
Increased cash distributions
25% toward 40%
6
CVX RDS TOT
5
BP
COP 4 20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% of CFOA Distributed Source: Company filings.
100
Decisive Actions to Increase Value
Sell assets and reduce debt Increase ROCE / CROCI 10 BBOE resources to reserves in 10 years Grow production/share 3% per year Increase distributions Closing the Valuation Gap 101
2010 Analyst Meeting March 24, 2010 New York, New York
2010 Analyst Meeting Appendix March 24, 2010 New York, New York
Definitions RESOURCE The company uses the term “resources” in this presentation. The company has estimated its total resources based on a system developed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. The system classifies recoverable hydrocarbons into six categories based on their status at the time of reporting – three deemed commercial and three deemed noncommercial. Within the commercial classification are proved reserves and two categories of unproved – probable and possible. The noncommercial categories are also referred to as contingent resources. The resource estimate encompasses volumes associated with all six categories. SWEET CRUDE Sulfur content less than or equal to 0.54 wt. %. MEDIUM SOUR CRUDE API gravity between 24 and 30 degrees and sulfur content greater than 2.0 weight percent. HEAVY SOUR CRUDE API gravity less than 24 degrees and sulfur content greater than 0.54 weight percent or API gravity less than 30 degrees and sulfur content greater than 2.0 weight percent. CAPITAL PROGRAM Capital Program includes capital expenditures and investments, loans to affiliates, and obligations to fund the upstream business venture with Cenovus. CAUTIONARY NOTE TO U.S. INVESTORS Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10‐K for the year ended December 31, 2009, File No. 001‐32395, available from the company at 600 N. Dairy Ashford, Houston, Texas 77079, and the company’s web site.
104
2010 Sensitivities $MM $1/BBL Crude Worldwide E&P Worldwide R&M (fixed & other co‐products) (fixed & other co‐products) Net Crude Impact
150 (20) 130
$1/MMBtu Natural Gas Worldwide E&P Worldwide R&M (utilities) (utilities) Net Gas Impact
600 (100) 500
$1/BBL Gulf Coast Crack Refining Margins (95% utilization) (95% utilization)
500
1¢/Gal U.S. Wholesale Marketing Margin
80
$1/BBL WTI / Maya Differential – U.S. Refining
70
1% Interest Rate (~$5.3 B Floating Rate Debt) (~$5.3 B Floating Rate Debt)
20
$0.01
Sensitivities show annual earnings impact excluding LUKOIL.
105
2010 Other Drivers
Selected Items Estimates
Pre‐Tax Expense Estimates
Corporate: $1.2 B (after‐tax)
Turnaround costs: $0.5 B
Pension funding: $0.7 B
Exploration expenses1: $1.3 B
• •
1
US: $0.5 B
DD&A: $9.2 B
Int’l: $0.2 B
Includes dry hole and lease impairment costs
106
COP Non‐GAAP Reconciliations Consolidated COP Earnings (loss) Less: Goodwill impairment LUKOIL investment impairment Impairments - other Net gain on asset sales/share issuance Severance accruals Adjusted earnings
1
GAAP E&P Net Income - $MM GAAP E&P Net Income - $ / BOE non-core earnings impacts - $MM gains and (losses) on asset dispositions asset impairments tax legislation / regulatory / other E&P Income - $ / BOE E&P DD&A - $ / BOE E&P Cash Contribution - $ / BOE
1
2008 $ (16,998)
2009 4,858
25,443 7,410 1,292 (814) 99 $ 16,432
729 (175) (40) 5,372
2008
2009
(13,479) (20.58)
590 (26,070) (71) 18.43 12.26 30.69
3,604 5.33
55 (613) (6) 6.16 12.32 18.48
Attributable to ConocoPhillips
107
COP Non‐GAAP Reconciliations 2005 1
GAAP R&M U.S. Net Income - $MM GAAP R&M U.S. Net Income - $ / BBL non-core earnings impacts - $MM gains and (losses) on asset dispositions asset impairments tax legislation / regulatory / other R&M U.S. Income - $ / BBL
3,329 3.31
(77) 3.38
2006 3,915 3.95
2007 4,615 4.96
(227) 34 4.13
16 (12) 4.93
2008 1,540 1.76
2009 (192) (0.22)
121 (370) (23)
32 (116) (52)
2.07
(0.13)
2009 11,094 16.40
3-Year 2007-2009 48,298 24.21
5-Year 2005-2009 77,402 23.61
excluded GAAP items - $MM non-cash working capital 2 non-working capital adjustments
(1,553) 142
(772) 708
(497) 1,827
E&P Cash Contribution - $ / BOE
18.48
GAAP E&P CFOA - $MM GAAP E&P CFOA - $ / BOE
1 2
23.99
23.05
Attributable to ConocoPhillips Includes items such as deferred tax, accretion on discounted liabilities, and undistributed equity earnings.
108
COP Non‐GAAP Reconciliations Consolidated COP GAAP ROCE non-core earnings impacts - $MM gains and (losses) on asset dispositions asset impairments tax legislation / regulatory / other ROCE
2009 7% 87 (729) 26 7%
Consolidated COP 2009 GAAP CFOA GAAP cash interest payments GAAP CROCI Adjustments Difference between EBIDA and GAAP CFOA + cash interest Non-core earnings impacts CROCI
12,479 998 15%
1,605 616 18%
* Includes items such as deferred tax, accretion on discounted liabilities, and undistributed equity earnings.
109
Major Projects Start‐ Up
WI%
Gross Peak Production MBOED
Current Project Phase
Golden Pass
12
‐
Construction
Eagle Ford
95
TBD1
Appraise
Canada
Christina Lake C
50
402
Execute
Qatar
Qatargas 3
30
260
Execute
Libya
Faregh 2
16
40
Execute
West Africa
NLNG Trains 4/5 Gas Supply
20
25
Execute
China
Bohai Bay Phase II
49
170
Execute/Operate
Vietnam
Su Tu Den NE
23
30
Execute
Region
Significant Project (start date)
Lower 48
2010‐ 2011
COP operated 1 2
To be defined Represents operator's forecasted production capacity and SOR.
110
Major Projects Start‐ Up
Region
WI%
Gross Peak Production MBOED
Current Project Phase
Tiber
18
TBD1
Appraise
Foster Creek F/G/H
50
902
Optimize
Christina Lake D
50
402
Execute
Christina Lake E/F/G
50
1202
Optimize
Narrows Lake A/B
50
802
Appraise
Surmont II
50
90
Execute
Surmont III+
50
TBD1
Appraise
Thornbury
100
TBD1
Appraise
Clyden
100
TBD1
Appraise
Saleski
100
TBD1
Appraise
Umiak
40
30 – 40
Appraise
Parsons Lake
75
50 – 60
Optimize
Amauligak
52
190 – 230
Appraise
Significant Project (start date)
Lower 48
2012+
Canada
COP operated 1 2
To be defined Represents operator's forecasted production capacity and SOR
111
Major Projects Start‐ Up
Region
WI%
Gross Peak Production MBOED
Current Project Phase
Prudhoe WRD1
36
20 – 25
Define
ANS Gas
36
600 – 700
Appraise
WNS Developments2
78
35 – 40
Define
Kuparuk Viscous Oil3
56
20 – 30
Appraise
Jasmine
37
80 – 90
Define
Clair Ridge
24
80 – 100
Optimize
Ekofisk South
35
50 – 60
Optimize
Eldfisk II
35
60 – 70
Optimize
Tor Redevelopment
31
30 – 50
Appraise
Tommeliten
28
50 – 70
Appraise
Significant Project (start date)
Alaska
2012+
United Kingdom
Norway
COP operated 1
Includes IPAD and Gas Partial Processing projects Includes Alpine West, Lookout, Fiord West, Rendezvous and SPARK (conventional gas). 3 Includes North East West Sak & Ugnu 2
112
Major Projects Start‐ Up
WI%
Gross Peak Production MBOED
Current Project Phase
Kashagan 1
8
4501
Execute
Kashagan 2
8
10501
Optimize
Kalamkas
8
70 – 90
Appraise
Aktote
8
70 – 90
Appraise
Kairan
8
60 – 80
Appraise
Algeria
El Merk (EMK)
17
60
Execute
Abu Dhabi
Shah Gas Project
40
TBD2
Define
North Gialo
16
80 – 120
Appraise
NC98
16
60 – 100
Appraise
Further Waha Development
16
80 – 120
Appraise
NLNG Train 6 Gas Supply
20
40 – 60
Appraise
Uge
20
100 – 120
Appraise
Bohai Phase III
49
20 – 30
Appraise
Panyu Growth
25
30 – 40
Optimize
Region
Russia / Caspian
2012+ Libya
Significant Project (start date)
West Africa
China
COP operated 1 2
Represents operator’s forecasted plant capacity To be defined
113
Major Projects Start‐ Up
Region
Malaysia
2012+
Indonesia
Vietnam
Australia
WI%
Gross Peak Production MBOED
Current Project Phase
Gumusut
33
140
Execute
Kebabangan
301
130 – 140
Define
Malikai
35
60 – 70
Define
Ubah
35
30 – 50
Appraise
Petai ‐ Pisagan
35
30 – 50
Appraise
Kamunsu East
30
60 – 80
Appraise
Suban 3
54
20 – 30
Appraise
Caltex 3 Development
54
20 – 30
Define
Bawal
40
10 – 20
Define
South Belut
40
20 – 30
Appraise
Su Tu Trang
23
30 – 50
Appraise
Su Tu Nau
23
20 – 30
Appraise
APLNG
502
280 – 3703
Define
Sunrise
30
150 – 190
Appraise
Poseidon
60
TBD4
Appraise
Significant Project (start date)
COP operated 1 Jointly operated 2 COP to operate the downstream LNG development; Origin to operate upstream development. 3 Including third party gas sales 4
To be defined
114