IV. Environmental Impact Analysis I.3. Population 1. Introduction This section of the Draft EIR provides information regarding the current and future population of the City of Los Angeles Subregion and, for informational purposes only, the Local Area.35 The section also evaluates the proposed Project in terms of the Southern California Association of Governments’ (SCAG) population growth forecast for the City of Los Angeles Subregion and, for informational purposes, the Local Area. The analysis presented below is based on the technical report entitled “An Assessment of the Employment, Housing and Population Impacts of the USC Project,” prepared by HR&A Advisors, Inc., which is provided in Appendix J of this Draft EIR.

2. Environmental Setting a. Existing Conditions (1) Regional, County, City of Los Angeles and Local Area Conditions According to estimates prepared by the State’s Department of Finance, in 2009, the population of the southern California region was 18,716,239 persons, the population of the County of Los Angeles was 10,393,185 persons and the population of the City of Los Angeles was 4,065,585 persons. In addition, according to Department of City Planning estimates, there were 86,294 people residing in the Local Area as of 2008.36 This estimate                                                              35

The City of Los Angeles Subregion includes the area of the City of Los Angeles, the City of San Fernando, and various adjacent unincorporated areas of Los Angeles County. The Local Area includes the community immediately surrounding the USC University Park Campus, and is bounded by Washington Boulevard on the north, Vernon Avenue on the south, Main Street on the east, and Normandie Avenue on the west.

36

2008 estimates for the sum of census tracts comprising the Local Area, available on-line at: http://cityplanning.lacity.org/DRU/Locl/LocRpt.cfm?geo=CP&sgo=CT.:

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IV.I.3. Population

corresponds closely to a total population estimate of 88,312 in 2009 based on the SCAG 2008 Regional Growth Forecast (discussed below), and a Claritas estimate of 84,481 for 2009.37 Table IV.I-33 on page IV.I-73 compares the basic characteristics of the City’s population in 1990 and 2000 with that of the Local Area, according to the decennial U.S. Census in each year. More recent data for the City is from the 2008 American Community Survey, and for the Local Area, the data are based on Claritas estimates for 2009. It shows that the Local Area in 2009, as compared with the City as a whole, has: (1) a much higher population density (more than twice the Citywide density); (2) a higher proportion of “group quarters” population consistent with certain of the USC housing resources; (3) a much younger age profile (current median age of 25.9 years versus 34.1 years in the City); (4) a slightly higher proportion of family households; (5) larger average household sizes (3.34 vs. 2.90 in the City); (6) a higher, and growing proportion of Hispanic households (currently 65 percent vs. 49 percent in the City); and (7) lower household, family and percapita incomes. The Project site currently includes 1,748 housing units, including apartments and residence halls, which altogether house 4,677 undergraduate students at full occupancy, but no graduate students, faculty or staff.

(2) Population Growth Projections According to the SCAG 2008 Regional Growth Forecast, the City of Los Angeles Subregion had a population of approximately 4.04 million in 2005, and approximately 4.12 million in 2009. By 2030, SCAG forecasts a population increase to 4.44 million persons. As shown in Table IV.I-34 on page IV.I-74, the forecast from 2009 through 2030 envisions additional growth of 316,034 additional persons (+7.7 percent). In the Local Area, which is included in the City of Los Angeles Subregion, SCAG forecasts a population increase to 96,045 persons by 2030, from 88,312 persons in 2009, or 7,733 additional persons (+8.8 percent).

                                                             37

Claritas is an independent demographic forecasting company whose forecasts are widely used for analyses of this type.

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IV.I.3. Population Table IV.I-33 Population Characteristics in the City of Los Angeles, 1990, 2000 & 2008 and the Local Area, 1990, 2000 & 2009 City of Los Angeles 1990 a Characteristic Total Population Population/Square Mile Household Population

#

Local Area

2000 a %

#

2008 b %

#

1990 a %

#

2000 a %

#

2009 c %

#

3,485,398

3,694,820

3,803,383

85,154

81,175

84,481

7,196

7,629

7,853

18,593

17,724

18,446

%

3,412,586

97.9%

3,612,223

97.8%

N/A

N/A

N/A

78,031

92.4%

72,812

2.1%

82,597

2.2%

N/A

N/A

N/A

6,450

7.6%

Under 5 Years

282,358

8.1%

285,976

7.7%

287,884

7.6%

8,316

9.8%

6,933

8.5%

6,854

8.1%

5-19 Years

641,517

18.4%

805,073

21.8%

772,538

20.3%

22,228

26.1%

22,727

28.0%

15,507

18.4%

20-34 Years

1,065,250

30.6%

974,004

26.4%

893,253

23.5%

30,582

35.9%

26,490

32.6%

21,474

25.4%

35-54 Years

844,794

24.2%

1,013,010

27.4%

1,097,931

28.9%

15,411

18.1%

16,805

20.7%

20,336

24.1%

55+ Years

651,479

18.7%

616,757

16.7%

751,777

19.8%

8,617

10.1%

8,220

10.1%

10,465

12.4%

Group Quarters Population Age Ranges

Median Age (years) All Households

N/A

31.6

34.1

1,217,405

1,275,412

1,280,535

25.9 23,018

22,493

23,329

Family Households

759,089

62.4%

798,719

62.6%

780,410

60.9%

15,212

66.1%

14,454

64.3%

14,828

63.6%

Non-Family Households

458,316

37.6%

476,693

37.4%

500,125

39.1%

7,806

33.9%

8,039

35.7%

8,501

36.4%

Average Household Size

2.80

2.83

2.90

3.50

3.33

3.34

Average Family Size

N/A

3.56

3.71

N/A

N/A

N/A

Hispanic

1,391,411

39.9%

1,719,073

46.5%

1,867,861

49.1%

52,232

61.3%

51,425

63.4%

54,680

64.7%

Non-Hispanic

2,093,987

60.1%

1,975,747

53.5%

1,935,522

50.9%

32,922

40.6%

29,750

36.6%

29,801

35.3%

Median Household Income

$30,925

$36,687

$48,882

$18,500

$19,397

$23,423

Median Family Income

$34,364

$39,942

$53,577

N/A

N/A

$28,582

Per Capita Income

$16,188

$20,671

$28,071

N/A

N/A

$10,090

Persons in Poverty

643,809

N/A

N/A

N/A

a b c

18.9%

801,050

22.1%

N/A

19.4%

N/A

2000 U.S. Census, per Geolytics Neighborhood Change Database, for the City of Los Angeles as a whole and for the Local Area, based on census tracts that defines its boundaries. 2008 American Community Survey 1-year Estimates (available on-line at: http;//www.census.gov/acs/www). Claritas.

Source: HR&A Advisors, Inc., 2010.

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IV.I.3. Population Table IV.I-34 SCAG Population Forecast for the City of Los Angeles Subregion and Local Area a City of Los Angeles Subregion

Local Area c

4,037,549

86,284

4,123,983

88,312

2010

4,140,516

88,821

2020

4,292,139

92,523

2030

4,440,017

96,045

Number

86,434

2,028

% Change

2.14%

2.35%

316,034

7,733

7.66%

8.76%

Projection Year 2005 2009

b

Change 2005-2009

Change 2009-2030 Number % Change a

b

c

SCAG regional growth forecast adopted for the 2008 Regional Transportation Plan Update (available at http://www.scag.ca.gov/forecast/index.htm). Based on a straight-line interpolation between 2005 and 2010 values in the SCAG regional growth forecast adopted with the 2008 Regional Transportation Plan Update. Based on the sum of census tract values in the SCAG regional growth forecast adopted with the 2008 Regional Transportation Plan Update for the census tracts that approximate the Local Area.

Source: HR&A Advisors, Inc., 2010.

3. Environmental Impacts a. Methodology The analysis presented below addresses potential Project impacts during construction of the proposed Project as well as those that could occur during Project operation once Project buildout is completed. Population growth attributable to the proposed Project would result from the development of housing units that would accommodate 5,400 students and 418 faculty (including faculty family members), and the demolition of existing USC-owned housing that currently accommodates 1,162 undergraduate students. In addition, there would be an increase in population associated with the net increase in students, faculty and staff over the buildout of the proposed Project that is in excess of the number accommodated by Project housing. The analysis also accounts for additional population growth resulting from the non-USC persons who could be expected to occupy the household of each net new student, faculty and staff person not housed by the proposed Project. Population growth City of Los Angeles SCH. No. 2009011101

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IV.I.3. Population

impacts are assessed in terms of the proposed Project’s relationship to the SCAG 2008 Regional Growth Forecast for the City of Los Angeles Subregion. Comparisons are also provided to forecasted population growth in the Local Area, for informational purposes. The analysis focuses on the proposed Project’s relationship of the proposed Project to SCAG’s adopted growth forecast only, as there are no other population growth policies per se in City, County or regional plans.

b. Significance Thresholds Appendix G of the CEQA Guidelines provides a sample question that addresses impacts with regard to population. This question is as follows: Would the project: 

Induce substantial population growth in an area either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure)?

In the context of this question, the City of Los Angeles CEQA Thresholds Guide states that the determination of significance with regard to impacts on population shall be made on a case-by-case basis, considering the following factors: 

The degree to which the project would cause growth (i.e., new housing or employment generators) or accelerate development in an undeveloped area that exceeds projected/planned levels for the year of project occupancy/buildout, and that would result in an adverse physical change in the environment;



Whether the project would introduce unplanned infrastructure that was not previously evaluated in the adopted Community Plan or General Plan; and



The extent to which growth would occur without implementation of the project.

Based on these factors, the proposed Project would have potentially significant impacts if it were to generate new growth that would exceed projected levels and could not be accommodated by existing and/or planned infrastructure.

c.

Project Design Features

The proposed Project includes the development of approximately 2,135,000 square feet of student and faculty housing that would provide up to 5,400 student beds in a variety of housing types and configurations and approximately 418 faculty beds within 250 faculty housing units. With the proposed removal of USC units providing 1,162 student beds, a

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IV.I.3. Population

total net increase of 4,656 beds would be provided under the proposed Project. No other Project Design Features are proposed with regard to population.

d. Analysis of Proposed Project Impacts (1) Construction-Related Population Impacts Due to the employment patterns of construction workers in southern California, and the operation of the market for construction labor, construction workers are not likely, to any notable degree, to relocate their households as a consequence of the construction job opportunities presented by the proposed Project. It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that Project-related construction workers would not relocate their households’ places of residence as a consequence of working on the proposed Project. Thus, there would not be any significant population growth in the City of Los Angeles Subregion due to Project construction.

(2) Operational-Related Population Impacts The analysis below evaluates both the direct and indirect impacts of the increase in population resulting from Project implementation. (a) Direct Project Population Impacts The proposed Project would construct 5,200 new student beds and approximately 418 beds within the proposed 250 units of faculty housing units for a total of 5,818 new beds. As the proposed Project would result in the demolition of 1,162 beds, the net increase in beds provided by the proposed Project would be 4,656 beds. For the purposes of this analysis, the number of beds is used as a surrogate for population. As such, the proposed Project would result in a direct population increase of 4,656 persons. As discussed further below, this direct population growth would be consistent with growth anticipated by SCAG for the City of Los Angeles Subregion. (b) Indirect Project Population Impacts While the University currently has a policy of no growth for undergraduates, in light of historic University growth, it is anticipated that by the year 2030, the University community will be composed of approximately 17,800 undergraduate students, 18,200 graduate students, 1,900 faculty members, and 7,000 staff workers as shown in Table IV.I-35 on page IV.I-77. Additionally, the number of visitors (including contract employees) is anticipated to be approximately 2,500.

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IV.I.3. Population Table IV.I-35 Year 2030 University Population Growth Projections a Population

Year 2009 Population

Year 2030 Population

Change

Undergraduate Students

16,023

17,800

1,777

Graduate Students

14,805

18,200

3,395

Faculty

1,732

1,900

168

Staff

5,716

7,000

1,284

Visitors (including contract employees)

1,400

2,500

1,100

Source: HR&A Advisors, Inc., 2010.

Table IV.I-36 on page IV.I-78, compares the proposed Project’s net growth in students, faculty and staff between 2009 and 2030. Table IV.I-36 shows that the proposed Project would result in a direct population increase of 6,624 students, faculty and staff, and that 4,656 of these persons will be accommodated by proposed Project housing. This leaves a difference of 1,968 students, faculty and staff not accommodated by proposed Project housing. When this difference is then adjusted to account for the non-USC persons who could be expected to occupy the household of each net new student, faculty and staff person not housed by the proposed Project, the result is an indirect Project impact of 4,432 persons. As discussed further below, this direct and indirect household growth would be consistent with growth anticipated by SCAG for the City of Los Angeles Subregion. In addition, when accounting for the non-USC related population resulting from backfill of residential units made available as a result of additional housing provided by USC, the resulting population would continue to be consistent with SCAG projections. (c) Consistency of Project Population With Adopted SCAG Housing Growth Forecasts The proposed Project’s total population is calculated by adding together the proposed Project’s direct and indirect population increase. For informational purposes, as shown in Table IV.I-37 on page IV.I-79, the proposed Project’s total population impact of 11,056 persons is equal to 11.5 percent of the future population forecasted in the Local Area by 2030, and is approximately 43.0 percent greater than the incremental population growth between 2009 and 2030 (if all indirect population were to locate in the Local Area, which is unlikely), according to the SCAG regional growth forecast. The Project population also represents 0.25 percent of the 2030 population forecasted for the City of Los Angeles Subregion, and 3.5 percent of population growth forecasted between 2009 and 2030 in the Subregion. Thus, the proposed Project would be consistent with SCAG forecasts for the subregion and impacts would be less than significant. City of Los Angeles SCH. No. 2009011101

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IV.I.3. Population Table IV.I-36 Derivation of Indirect Population Impact

Occupant Categories

2009-2030 Increase

Population Housed by Project

Difference

Household Size Adjustment Factor a

Indirect Population Impact

Undergraduate Students

1,777

998

779

1.00

779

Graduate Students

3,395

3,240

155

1.00

155

168

418

(250)

1.67

(418)

1,284

–

1,284

3.05

3,916

6,624

4,656

1,968

Faculty Staff Total a

4,432

Assumes: (1) students reside with other students; (2) faculty occupy households with an average size equal to those planned for the proposed Project; and (3) staff occupy households at the average size of all households in Los Angeles County, per the 2008 American Housing Survey 1-Year Estimates.

Source: HR&A Advisors, Inc., 2009.

(d) Conclusion Based on the discussion above, the proposed Project would not induce substantial population growth, nor would it exceed the population forecast for the City of Los Angeles Subregion. To the extent that the proposed Project helps accommodate a portion of anticipated population growth, its population impacts are considered beneficial. As to the second significance threshold, the proposed Project would not introduce unplanned infrastructure that was not previously evaluated in the South Los Angeles Community Plan or the Southeast Los Angeles Community Plan. All circulation improvements planned for the proposed Project are intended to improve existing and future circulation flows throughout the affected area consistent with the proposed Project. Utility and other infrastructure upgrades planned for the proposed Project are intended primarily to meet Project-related demand. The Project households’ demand for commercial goods and services would be met by new retail, service and other resources included as part of the proposed Project or already located within proximity of the Project site. Therefore, the proposed Project would not result in any significant adverse impacts in terms of this significance threshold. As to the third significance threshold, the Project site is located in an urbanized area of the City of Los Angeles that is already developed with single-family and multi-family homes, and commercial, residential, and industrial uses. Future growth is planned for and expected, pursuant to a Community Plan and other Elements of the City’s General Plan, and several Redevelopment Plans. Therefore, the proposed Project would not result in any significant adverse impacts in terms of this significance threshold. City of Los Angeles SCH. No. 2009011101

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IV.I.3. Population Table IV.I-37 Project Population Compared With SCAG Forecast for the City of Los Angeles Subregion and Local Area Population Direct Growth

Indirect Growth

Total Growth

SCAG City of LA Subregion, 2009

4,123,983

SCAG City of LA Subregion, 2030

4,440,017

SCAG City of LA Subregion Growth, 2009-2030

316,034

Local Area, 2030

96,045

Local Area Growth, 2009-2030

7,733

Project Population

6,624

4,432

11,056

Share of SCAG City of LA Subregion, 2030

0.10%

0.10%

0.25%

Share of SCAG City of LA Subregion Growth, 2009-2030

1.47%

1.40%

3.50%

Share of Local Area, 2030

4.85%

4.61%

11.51%

Share of Local Area Growth, 2009-2030

60.21%

57.31%

142.97%

Project Impacts

Source: HR&A Advisors, Inc., 2009.

(e) Transfers of Floor Area The proposed Project would include flexibility to allow for transfers of floor area for academic/University uses and student housing between Subarea 1 and Subarea 3A on a per square foot basis. While transfers of floor area across Subareas would be permitted, the maximum amount of floor area would not exceed 30 percent of the Subarea total for Subarea 1 and 15 percent of the Subarea total for Subarea 3A. In addition, the maximum Project total of 5,230,000 square feet may not be exceeded. Floor area transfers would not result in new impacts with regard to population. Floor area transfers would not change the populations of undergraduates, graduates, and faculty that were analyzed for the proposed Project. As such, floor area transfers would not alter the conclusions with regard to population impacts. Should academic/University or student residential floor be transferred across the Subareas, the resulting impacts would be similar to those evaluated herein. In conclusion, the proposed Project would respond to, but satisfy a portion of, unmet population growth, rather than inducing population growth. The proposed Project would help achieve the population growth forecast for the City of Los Angeles Subregion, and would be consistent with regional policies to reduce urban sprawl, efficiently utilize existing City of Los Angeles SCH. No. 2009011101

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infrastructure, reduce regional congestion, and improve air quality through the reduction of vehicle miles traveled. For all these reasons, the proposed Project’s population impacts would be beneficial (rather than adverse) and less than significant. Other impacts related to Project population (e.g., schools, public services, transportation) are addressed in the applicable sections of this Draft EIR.

4. Cumulative Impacts Table IV.I-38 on page IV.I-81 compares the cumulative population impact of the proposed Project’s population, and all other forecasted population growth for the City of Los Angeles Subregion between 2009 and 2030. The 2009-2030 forecasted population growth is used as a proxy for “related projects,” because the population impacts of all individual developments that may actually occur between 2009 and 2030 cannot be reasonably foreseen at this time. Based on this data the following conclusions are drawn: (1) the proposed Project’s total population impact (i.e., direct + indirect growth) accounts for about 0.25 percent of the population forecasted for the City of Los Angeles Subregion in 2030; (2) about 3.5 percent of the forecasted growth in population in the City of Los Angeles between 2009 and 2030; and (3) cumulative population (i.e., total Project population plus forecasted 2009-2030 population growth in the Subregion) represents 7.3 percent of the population forecasted for the Subregion in 2030. Therefore, the proposed Project’s incremental population impact is not “cumulatively considerable” within the meaning of CEQA,38 and hence its cumulative population impact is less than significant.

5. Mitigation Measures Project-level and cumulative impacts associated with population would be less than significant. As such, no mitigation measures would be required.

6. Level of Significance After Mitigation As discussed above, Project and cumulative impacts associated with population would be less than significant and no mitigation measures would be required.

                                                             38

State CEQA Guidelines, op. cit., § 15064(h)(1).

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IV.I.3. Population Table IV.I-38 Project Population Plus “Related Project” Population Compared With the Adopted SCAG Households Forecast for the City of Los Angeles Subregion Population SCAG City of LA Subregion Population, 2030 SCAG City of LA Subregion Population Growth, 2009-2030

4,440,017 316,034

Project Population Direct Population

6,624

Indirect Population

4,432

Total Project Population

11,056

“Related Projects” Population

316,034

Cumulative Population (Project + “Related Projects” Population)

325,122

Total Project Population Share of Subregional Population, 2030

0.25%

Total Project Population Share of Subregional Population Growth, 20092030

3.50%

Cumulative Population Share of Subregional Population, 2030

7.32%

Source: HR&A Advisors, Inc., 2009.

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