Industry and Occupational Employment Projections 2010-2020

Employment Change (Thousands)

250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200

1939-

1949-

1959-

1969-

1979-

1989-

1999-

2009-

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Prepared by:  New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research Source: 1939‐2012 Current Employment Statistics, Annual Averages 1939‐2012 Current Employment Statistics, Annual Averages.

4,000 3,500

3,895,500

3,000

3,457,900

2,500 2,000

About 437,000 Jobs Over Last Twenty Years

1,500 1,000 500

2009

2004

1999

1994

1989

1984

1979

1974

1964

1959

1954

1949

1944

0

1969

0.60% Annual Growth 1939

Employment (Thousands)

4,500

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 1939‐2012 Current Employment Statistics, Annual Averages.

Annual Percent Growth ‘10-‘20

1.6 1.4 1.2

1.4

1.0 0.8 0.6

0.8

US NJ

0.4 0.2 0.0 Total Nonfarm Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

Annual Percent Growth ‘10-‘20

1.6 1.4 1.2

1.4

1.0 0.8 0.6

1.0

US

0.8

0.4

NJ 0.4

0.2 0.0 Total Nonfarm

Goods Producing Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

Annual Percent Growth ‘10-‘20

1.6 1.4 1.2

1.5

1.4

1.0 0.8 0.6

1.0 0.8

0.4

0.8

US NJ

0.4

0.2 0.0 Total Nonfarm

Goods Producing Service-Providing Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

Employment Growth ‘10 – ’20

350,000 300,000

309,500

291,900

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 17,600

0 Total Nonfarm

Goods Producing

Service-Providing

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

FF1

20,000 (Thousands)

Employment Growth ‘10 – ’20

25,000

19,741.2 17,950.0

15,000 10,000 5,000 1,791.3

0 Total Nonfarm

Goods Producing

Service Providing

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

Slide 8 FF1

Source, BLS?

Ferdetta, Frank, 6/3/2013

3.0

Annual Percent Growth

2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0

US

NJ

-3.0 Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

2.0

-2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0

11-12

10-11

09-10

08-09

07-08

06-07

05-06

04-05

03-04

02-03

01-02

00-01

99-00

98-99

97-98

96-97

95-96

94-95

93-94

92-93

-14.0

91-92

-12.0 90-91

Annual Growth Rate (%)

0.0

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 1990‐2012 Current Employment Statistics, Annual Averages.

Employment Change ‘10-‘20

40,000 36,800

30,000 20,000 10,000

17,600

0 -10,000 -19,700

-20,000 -30,000 Goods Producing

Manufacturing

Construction

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

Employment Change ‘10-‘20

0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 -20,000 -25,000

M A N U F A C T U R I N G

-19,700

-1,300 -1,300 -1,500 -3,700 -3,800

-11,600

Printing and Related Support Chemical Manufacturing Paper Manufacturing Computer and Electronic Products 2 Machinery Manufacturing

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

4.0

2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0

11-12

10-11

09-10

08-09

07-08

06-07

05-06

04-05

03-04

02-03

01-02

00-01

99-00

98-99

97-98

96-97

95-96

94-95

93-94

92-93

-3.0

91-92

-2.0 90-91

Annual Growth Rate (%)

3.0

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 1990‐2012 Current Employment Statistics, Annual Averages.

Trade, Transportation & Warehousing Education and Health Professional and Business Services Leisure and Hospitality Finance and Real Estate Other Services 0 2010 Employment

250,000

500,000

750,000 1,000,000

Projected Growth Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections; Current Employment Statistics,  Annual Averages.

Employment Change ‘10-‘20

100,000

90,800

85,600 69,200

75,000

50,500

50,000 25,000 0

Professional and

Education and

Trade,

Leisure and

Business Services

Health

Transportation &

Hospitality

Warehousing Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections.

600 500 400 300 200

1.4% Per Year

2.6% Per Year

100 0 1990

2000 Actual

2010

2020

Projected Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Industry Employment Projections; 1990‐2010 Current Employment  Statistics, Annual Averages.









7.7% Employment Growth, 20102020 320,300 Additional Employment 132,940 Average Annual Job Openings Roughly ¾ of these Openings are due to Replacement Demand. Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

76,200

80,000

85,500

60,000 40,000

38,900

34,500

27,000

20,000

27,200

24,000 11,200

0 Trans. / Mat. Moving

Production

Install, Maint, Repair

Construction

Office / Admin.

Sales

Service

Professional

-20,000

-4,400

Mgmt., Bus., Fin.

Employment Change ‘10- ‘20

100,000

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Service

30,170

Professional

27,900

Office / Admin.

19,500

Sales

17,290

Mgmt., Bus., Fin.

14,120

Trans. / Mat. Moving

10,190

Construction

5,260

Install, Maint, Repair

4,490

Production

3,940 0

5,000

10,000 Growth

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Replacement Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Employment Change ‘10- ‘20

Home Health Aides

13,400

Retail Salespersons

13,300

Registered Nurses

9,000

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants

7,800

Receptionists and Information Clerks

7,400

Office Clerks, General

7,300

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers

6,900

Cashiers

6,500 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Employment Change ‘10- ‘20

0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 -3,500

Postal Service

Stock Clerks

Secondary

Word

Mail Sorters,

and Order

School

Processors and

Processors,

Fillers

Teachers,

Typists

and Processing

Except Special

Machine

and Vocational

Operators

Education

File Clerks

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Computer and Math

Architecture and

203,390 24%

126,930

51,760

15%

6% 33,880 4% 60,200 7%

289,320 35%

Life, Physical, and Social Sciences Community and Social Services Legal

Education, Training, and Library

44,340 5%

Engineering

31,140 4%

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Health Care Practitioner

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research Occupational Employment Statistics Wage Survey, July 2012.

115,830 16%

Health Care Support

129,140 18%

Protective Services 97,900

125,420

13%

17%

Food Services Building and Grounds Maintenance

269,020

Personal Care Services

36% Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research Occupational Employment Statistics Wage Survey, July 2012.

Percent Growth 2010-2020

10.0%

Doctoral or professional degree Total High

8.5%

Requirements

6.4%

Master's degree

8.3%

Bachelor's degree

8.9%

Associate's degree Total Moderate

10.6%

Requirements

7.9%

Some college, no degree Postsecondary non-degree

10.9%

award Total Low

7.2%

Requirements

High school diploma or

5.9%

equivalent

9.5%

Less than high school 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

15.0%

BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON

MORRIS PASSAIC UNION

• In 2010, the Northern Region accounted for over 45% of all New Jersey employment. • From 2010 to 2020, the region is projected to experience a total employment growth of nearly 120,000 or 6.4%, the largest employment growth amongst all regions in the state. • Projected to have 57,900 annual average job openings, nearly double any other region.

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

• In 2010, Bergen County had the largest employment across NJ (482,300). The county is projected to have the largest employment growth from 2010 to 2020 (+36,250). • Management, personal care and service, sales, office and administrative support, construction, and healthcare occupations had the largest employment level amongst all counties in NJ. • Healthcare support occupations are projected to grow by more than 30 percent, adding nearly 6,700 jobs over the ten year period. • From 2010 to 2020, the county is projected to have the most annual average job openings in the state (15,630). Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Total

• Construction and installation and repair occupations are the only major occupational groups that are projected to outpace NJ from 2010 to 2020 in total percent growth.

NJ

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin.

Northern

Professional Service

• Professional and services occupations in the northern region will account for half of the region’s growth, adding 59,600 jobs.

Sales Office/Admin Construction Install./Repair Production Transportation -10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

• The region is projected to grow much slower than the state (6.4% vs. 7.7%, respectively).

Percent Growth, 2010 - 2020 Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

SUSSEX WARREN

• The Northwestern Region is by far the smallest in the state, making up only 2.0% of the employment in NJ in 2010. • From 2010 to 2020, the region is projected to account for only 1.9% of the employment growth. • The region is only projected to have less than 2,700 annual average job openings, an amount nearly 22 times smaller than the Northern Region.

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

• Despite being the 4th largest county in New Jersey by area, Sussex County had the 3rd lowest employment level in 2010 (43,050). • In 2010, office/administration and education occupations accounted for more than a quarter of the employment in the county. • Personal care and service occupations are projected to experience the largest net growth of all occupations in the county (+450) from 2010 to 2020. • Over the ten year period from 2010 to 2020, construction and extraction occupations are projected to grow by more than 25 percent.

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

• Sales, professional, and management, business, and financial occupations are the only major occupational groups that are projected to grow faster than those of the State.

NJ

Total

Northwestern

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Professional Service Sales

• No growth is projected in office and administration, construction, installation and repair, and production occupations.

Office/Admin Construction Install./Repair Production Transportation -10

-5

0

5

10

Percent Growth, 2010 - 2020

15

20

• Professional occupations are projected to account for nearly 2/3 of the region’s growth over the ten year period.

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX MERCER SOMERSET • In 2010, the Central Region made up more than 1/5 of NJ employment (930,450). • From 2010 to 2020, employment in the region is projected to grow by 8.7 percent, adding nearly 81,000 jobs. • The region is projected to have the second largest amount of annual average job openings from 2010 to 2020 (30,370). • The region is projected to experience a larger total percentage gain over the ten year period than the state (8.7% vs. 7.7%, respectively).

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

• In 2010, Middlesex County had the second largest employment in New Jersey (424,000). Accounted for nearly half of all occupations found in the Central Region (45.6%). • From 2010 to 2020, projected to have both the second largest net growth (+36,000), and annual average job openings (13,760) in NJ. • Ranked #1 in 2010 for most employment in computer and mathematical, production, transportation and material moving, and life, physical, and social science occupations. • Over the ten year period, Middlesex County is projected to grow faster than the State (8.4% vs. 7.7%, respectively). Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Total

• The Central Region is projected to grow faster than the State (8.7% vs. 7.7%, respectively), due largely in part to professional, service, installation/repair, and production occupations.

NJ Central

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Professional Service Sales

• A 2.7 percent increase in production is projected for the region, while NJ is projected to decrease by 2.4 percent.

Office/Admin Construction Install./Repair Production Transportation -5

0

5

10

Percent Growth, 2010 - 2020

15

20

• Professional occupations will account for more than half of the region’s projected growth from 2010 to 2020 (50.2%).

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

ATLANTIC CAPE MAY

MONMOUTH OCEAN

• In 2010, the Coastal Region was the third largest region, accounting for more than 15% of the employment in NJ (641,400). • The region is projected to have the largest total percent increase from 2010 to 2020 across the state (+9.4%). • The region is projected to have 22,470 annual average job openings, a majority of which are due to replacement (15,940), while only 6,520 are due to growth. • Construction related occupations are projected to grow by 20 percent.

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

• Despite being the 2nd largest county by area, Ocean County ranked 13th with only 165,800 employment in 2010. • From 2010 to 2020, Ocean County is projected to experience the largest total percent gain in NJ (+11.6%), much faster than the State (+7.7%). • Accounts for nearly a third of the projected total net growth for the Coastal Region over the ten year period (32.0%). • Computer and mathematical occupations projected to grow by nearly a quarter (+22.6%). • Projected to have more than 6,000 annual average job openings. Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Total

• All Major Occupational groups, except management, business, and financial, will grow faster than those of the State.

NJ Coastal

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Professional Service

• Construction occupations in the region will experience a total increase of 20 percent, adding more than 60,000 jobs.

Sales Office/Admin Construction Install./Repair Production Transportation -5

0

5

10

15

Percent Growth, 2010 - 2020

20

25

• Service and professional occupations will account for nearly 53 percent of the projected growth in the region over the ten year period.

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

BURLINGTON GLOUCESTER CAMDEN SALEM CUMBERLAND • In 2010, the Southern Region accounted for more than 15% of all employment in NJ with nearly 633,000. • From 2010 to 2020, the region is projected to add more than 52,000 jobs and is expected to grow by 8.3 percent. • Over the ten year period, the region is projected to have more than 20,000 annual average job openings. • Construction occupations are projected to have the largest percent change (+17.2%).

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

• Burlington County is projected to experience the 2nd largest total percent growth from 2010 to 2020 (+10.2%), and the 6th largest employment growth in NJ (+22,150). • Nearly a quarter of the growth over the ten year period can be found in sales, and office/administration occupations (+5,400). • From 2010 to 2020, the county is projected to have the 8th most annual average job openings across the state (7,380). • The county is projected to grow faster than the state over the ten year period (10.2% vs. 7.7%, respectively).

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Total

• The Southern Region is projected to grow faster than the State from 2010 to 2020 (8.3% vs. 7.7%).

NJ Southern

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Professional

• In the region, service and professional occupations are projected to add more than 21,000 jobs (11,800 and 9,900, respectively).

Service Sales Office/Admin Construction Install./Repair Production Transportation -5

0

5

10

15

20

• All occupations in the region are projected to increase over the ten years, with construction occupations experiencing the largest total percent growth (17.2%).

Percent Growth, 2010 - 2020

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research 2010‐2020 Occupational Employment Projections.

Contact Scott Packen  

Call: 609-292-2742 Email: [email protected]

Online: http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor