Australian sheep. Industry projections 2014

Australian sheep Industry projections 2014 Australian sheep industry projections 2014 Authors: Tim McRae, Jonathan Meggison and Rebecca Matthews F...
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Australian sheep

Industry projections 2014

Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Authors: Tim McRae, Jonathan Meggison and Rebecca Matthews For more information call MLA on 02 9463 9163 Published by Meat & Livestock Australia Ltd February 2014 © Meat & Livestock Australia Ltd, 2014 ISSN 1329-2994 While endeavouring to ensure that the information contained in this publication is correct, MLA makes no representation as to, and accepts no liability for, the accuracy of such information including, but not limited to, the forecasts.

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MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Contents Introduction .............................................................................. 1 2013 – the key numbers ....................................................... 2 Overview of 2014 supply and demand projections ......... 3 Key assumptions ................................................................... 4 Situation and outlook 2014–2018 ........................................ 5 Australian sheep flock ........................................................... 6 MLA and AWI wool and sheepmeat survey ...................... 7 Lamb slaughter ...................................................................... 8 Mutton slaughter ................................................................... 9 Lamb and mutton production and carcase weights ..... 10 Sheep farm incomes ............................................................ 11 2014 demand outlook .................................................... 12-14 New Zealand ........................................................................ 15 Australian market ................................................................. 16 Australian market ...................................................................................................... 17 Australian economy ................................................................................................. 17 Consumer trends ..................................................................................................... 17 Retail prices ............................................................................................................... 18 Retail value and volume trends .............................................................................. 18 Foodservice trends .................................................................................................. 19

Middle East .................................................................... 20-22 United States ................................................................. 23-24 China ............................................................................... 25-27 European Union ................................................................... 28 Japan ..................................................................................... 29 Hong Kong and Taiwan ...................................................... 30 South East Asia .................................................................... 31 Other ...................................................................................... 32 Papua New Guinea .................................................................................................. 32 South Africa ............................................................................................................... 32 Russia ......................................................................................................................... 32 Korea .......................................................................................................................... 32

Offal ........................................................................................ 33 Live exports – summary ..................................................... 34 Live exports – markets ........................................................ 35 Statistical appendices ......................................................... 36 Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10 ............................................................................. 37-38 Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10 .............................................................................. 39-40 Appendix 3 – Live sheep exports .......................................................................... 41

Sources and acknowledgements .................................... 42 Acronyms .............................................................................. 43

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

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Contents List of Figures Figure 1 Australian rainfall 1 Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2013 ................................................ 4 Figure 2 Australian rainfall outlook – February to April 2014 ...................................... 4 Figure 3 A$ against US$ .................................................................................................. 4 Figure 4 Australian sheep flock ...................................................................................... 6 Figure 5 Australian sheep flock by state ...................................................................... 6 Figure 6 Ewe flock size intentions ................................................................................. 7 Figure 7 Lambs on hand and expected lamb sales – Australia ................................ 7 Figure 8 Marking rates – Australia ................................................................................. 7 Figure 9 Australian lamb slaughter ................................................................................ 8 Figure 10 Monthly Australian lamb slaughter ............................................................... 8 Figure 11 Quarterly lamb slaughter and saleyard prices ............................................ 8 Figure 12 Australian sheep slaughter ............................................................................ 9 Figure 13 Australian monthly sheep slaughter ............................................................ 9 Figure 14 Quarterly sheep slaughter and saleyard prices ......................................... 9 Figure 15 Australian lamb production ......................................................................... 10 Figure 16 Mutton production and carcase weight ................................................... 10 Figure 17 Australian slaughter lamb farm income ...................................................... 11 Figure 18 Australian lamb exports ............................................................................... 12 Figure 19 NZ lamb exports ............................................................................................ 15 Figure 20 Sheepmeat export volume Aus v NZ ....................................................... 15 Figure 21 Domestic lamb utilisation ............................................................................. 17 Figure 22 Mutton exports and domestic utilisation .................................................. 17 Figure 23 Australian retail meat prices ....................................................................... 18 Figure 24 Restaurants, cafes and takeaway turnover cycle .................................. 19 Figure 25 Australian retail fresh meat shares ............................................................ 19 Figure 26 Lamb exports to the Middle East .............................................................. 21 Figure 27 Lamb exports to the Middle East – by market ........................................ 21 Figure 28 Lamb exports to the Middle East by cut – 2013 ..................................... 21 Figure 29 Mutton exports to the Middle East .......................................................... 22 Figure 30 Mutton exports to the Middle East – by market .................................... 22 Figure 31 Mutton exports to the Middle East by cut – 2013 .................................. 22 Figure 32 Lamb exports to the US ............................................................................. 24 Figure 33 Lamb exports to the US by cut – 2013 .................................................... 24 Figure 34 Mutton exports to the US .......................................................................... 24 Figure 35 Lamb exports to China ............................................................................... 26 Figure 36 Lamb exports to China by cut – 2013 ...................................................... 26

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MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Figure 37 Mutton exports to China ............................................................................. 27 Figure 38 Mutton exports to China by cut – 2013 .................................................... 27 Figure 39 Lamb exports to EU .................................................................................... 28 Figure 40 Lamb exports to EU by cut – 2013 ........................................................... 28 Figure 41 Mutton exports to EU .................................................................................. 28 Figure 42 Lamb exports to Japan .............................................................................. 29 Figure 43 Lamb exports to Japan by cut – 2013 ..................................................... 29 Figure 44 Mutton exports to Japan ........................................................................... 29 Figure 45 Lamb exports to Greater China ................................................................ 30 Figure 46 Mutton exports to Greater China ............................................................. 30 Figure 47 Lamb exports to SEA ................................................................................... 31 Figure 48 Mutton exports to SEA ................................................................................ 31 Figure 49 Lamb exports to other markets ............................................................... 32 Figure 50 Mutton exports to other markets ............................................................. 32 Figure 51 Lamb exports to Africa and the Pacific ................................................... 32 Figure 52 Australian Offal Exports .............................................................................. 33 Figure 53 Australian sheep offal by cut – 2013 ........................................................ 33 Figure 54 Australian live sheep exports .................................................................... 34 Figure 55 Australian live sheep exports by destination .......................................... 35 Figure 56 Live sheep exports by destination ........................................................... 35

List of Tables Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7

Situation and outlook for the Australian sheepmeat industry ................. 5 Australian exports of lamb ........................................................................... 13 Australian exports of mutton ....................................................................... 13 Australian live sheep exports (head).......................................................... 34 Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts ................................................................. 37-38 Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts ................................................................. 39-40 Calander year live sheep exports ............................................................... 41

Introduction 2014 shapes as a very interesting year for the Australian lamb industry, as the medium-term prospects for increased supplies hinge firmly upon seasonal conditions, while in contrast, the export potential for the industry is extremely robust.

In conclusion, demand prospects for the Australian lamb industry look very positive for 2014, underpinned by a global market looking for additional supplies, combined with a lower A$ and reduced competition from NZ. This, together with a fall in Australian supplies, should have a positive impact on prices, provided seasonal conditions improve and enable Australian producers to finish lambs to meet market requirements.

After a record supply and export year in 2013, overall production volumes are expected to drop back in 2014. However, export markets will continue to increase their share of production – maintaining the long-term trend and underpinning an expected price rise. While drought and a scorching summer across most key lamb producing regions of Australia will be felt on supplies throughout the first half of 2014, the impact of seasonal conditions upon lambing rates in the year ahead will be crucial. With the Australian flock expected to feel the impact of the record lamb slaughter and surge in

Meat & Livestock Australia’s Market Information

sheep slaughter in 2013, the overall supply of lamb is expected to tighten into the second half of 2014 and through 2015. So, while the supply prospects for Australian lamb over the medium-term will depend, in part, on seasonal conditions throughout 2014, the demand for lamb in overseas markets looks very clear. With the A$ assumed to trade lower throughout the year, decreased supplies out of NZ and expanding demand from major markets, Australian lamb and mutton will be in strong demand. The combination of China, the Middle East and the US will continue to take the majority of Australian shipments throughout 2014. As a result, the domestic market (still Australia’s largest single lamb market) could feel a greater impact on supplies and retail prices if either supply tightens more than expected throughout 2014, or indeed, export conditions strengthen even further. While the number of live sheep exported for 2014 is expected to increase, this is largely dependent upon further market access improvements, especially into the

MLA produces a wide range of market information publications, which can be accessed for the latest news, analysis and statistics for the Australian red meat and livestock industry. From MLA Livestock Market Officers at saleyards each day, through to annual forecast and statistical compilations, the provision of timely, accurate and continuous market information is a key service provided to MLA members and stakeholders. All of MLA’s market information publications, including the Australian Cattle Industry Projections 2014, are available at www.mla.com.au, or through a direct email service. If you would like to contact MLA’s Market Information Service, please email [email protected], or call (02) 9463 9163.

Middle East, while the supply of suitable stock (given the lower flock) will remain tight.

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

1

2013 – the key numbers  Australian lamb slaughter in 2013 is estimated at 21.9 million head – the highest on record.

 Australian mutton slaughter for 2013 is estimated at 9.5 million head – the highest since 2008.

 The national sheep flock at 30 June 2013 is estimated to be 74.2 million head, back 500,000 head, or 0.7%, year-onyear.

 Total lamb production in 2013 reached an estimated 460,000 tonnes cwt, up 3.3% – the highest production year on record.

 Drought-induced adult sheep slaughter caused mutton production to increase 53.1% year-on-year, to an estimated 214,000 tonnes cwt – the highest since 2008.

 Live sheep exports are estimated to have declined 17.5% in 2013, to 1.88 million head – the smallest yearly volume on record.

 Lamb exports smashed the previous record and hit 214,000 tonnes swt – dominated by the US, China and the Middle East.

 Mutton exports reached 172,000 tonnes swt, up 61.2% yearon-year and the highest volume since 2001.

 The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator averaged 423¢/kg cwt for 2013, up 1.4% year-on-year.

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MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Australian lamb prices 800

A¢/kg cwt Restocker saleyard

Trade saleyard

Heavy trade OTH

600 400 200 0 00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

Source: MLA's NLRS

Weighted average saleyard lamb price 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

A¢/kg cwt Nominal

Indexed

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Source: MLA's NLRS, ABARES

Australian sheep prices 500

A¢/kg cwt sheep saleyard

400

sheep OTH

300 200 100 0 02

03

04

Source: MLA's NLRS

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

Overview of 2014 supply and demand projections  Australian lamb slaughter forecast to decrease 4.3% in 2014, to 20.95 million head  Australian sheep slaughter to contract 36%, to 6.1 million head

 The Australian sheep flock to fall 3% in the year to 30 June, 2014, to an estimated 72 million head  Australian live sheep exports in 2014 are forecast to increase 22.3%, to 2.3 million head*

 Australian lamb utilisation to decline 8.3% in 2014, to 193,000 tonnes cwt  Lamb exports to maintain long-term trend of making up a greater proportion of annual production – forecast to hit 56.1%

 Lamb exports to reach 211,000 tonnes swt in 2014  Lamb exports to the US, China and the Middle East are all expected to increase in 2014, making up 69% of total exports

 Mutton exports to be constrained by lower production, forecast to reach 110,000 tonnes swt in 2014 – dominated by China and the Middle East

*based on assumption of markets reopening to Australian sheep.

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

3

Key assumptions 



As part of MLA’s bi-annual Sheep and Lamb Industry Projections, a series of “key



The latest three month rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology indicates

assumptions” need to be outlined. While many of these assumptions are outside

that conditions for February – April will be largely neutral. This outlook comes after

the immediate expertise of MLA, they are key factors that must be considered in

a searing hot summer and very poor spring for central, western and northern NSW.

the delivery. Assumptions are compiled from a range of sources; each recognised

However, in contrast, southern regions of Victoria, SA, Tasmania and WA

experts in their respective area.

reportedly entered the summer months with an ample feed base for summer.

Seasonal conditions in 2014 to be ‘average’ (at best) to ‘below average’ across the



The A$ to average lower against the US dollar in 2014, trading between 84-90US¢.

majority of Australia’s sheep and lamb producing regions. The expanse of drought

After averaging 96US¢ in 2013 (down 7.6% year-on-year), the accepted trend for

conditions through 2013, especially for a large portion of NSW, will continue to

the A$ is to continue to weaken throughout 2014, assisted by improving economic

place a major influence upon the industry throughout the coming year, along with

conditions in several overseas markets.

the reported spectre of an increased chance of El Nino conditions (associated with drier conditions in eastern Australia).



Overall global economic conditions to again improve in 2014, assisted by continuing recoveries in the advanced economies of the US, Japan and EU, along with the sustained performance in China and South East Asia.

Figure 1 Australian rainfall 1 Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2013

Figure 2 Australian rainfall outlook - February to April 2014

Figure 3 A$ against US$

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall Legend

Legend

Highest on record Very much above average Above average Average Below average Very much below average Lowest on record

Above 60% chance 55-60% chance 50-55% chance 45-50% chance 40-45% chance Below 40% chance

1.2

A$/US$

1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 00

01

Source: RBA

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

4

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

Situation and outlook 2014–2018 Table 1

Situation and outlook for the Australian sheepmeat industry

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

% change

2014 f

% change

2015 f

2016 f

2017 f

2018 f

% change 2018 f on 2013

Sheep & lamb numbers ('000 head) at June 30

72,740

70,085

73,099

74,700

74,200

72,000

72,350

72,750

73,500

74,250

percentage change

-5.8%

-3.6%

4.3%

2.2%

-0.7%

-3.0%

0.5%

0.6%

1.0%

1.0%

0.1%

Slaughterings ('000 head) sheep

9,411

6,159

4,933

6,063

9,537

57.3%

6,100

-36.0%

7,000

7,150

7,250

7,350

-22.9%

lamb

20,493

18,609

17,793

20,009

21,900

9.4%

20,950

-4.3%

20,000

20,200

20,300

20,500

-6.4%

sheep

21.2

22.6

23.2

23.1

22.4

-2.7%

22.5

0.3%

22.5

22.5

22.5

22.5

0.3%

lamb

20.7

21.6

22.1

22.2

21.0

-5.6%

21.0

0.0%

21.3

21.4

21.5

21.6

2.8%

Avg carcase weight (kg)

Production ('000 tonnes carcase weight) mutton

200

139

114

140

214

53.1%

137

-35.9%

158

161

163

165

-22.7%

lamb

424

402

393

445

460

3.3%

440

-4.3%

426

432

436

443

-3.7%

3,568

2,969

2,458

2,279

1,880

-17.5%

2,300

22.3%

2,600

2,800

2,900

3,000

59.6%

Sheep exports ('000 head) Exports ('000 tonnes)* mutton lamb

shipped weight

134

99

82

107

172

61.2%

110

-36.0%

126

128

130

132

-23.3%

carcase weight

171

126

108

134

206

53.5%

132

-35.9%

151

154

156

158

-23.1%

shipped weight

165

156

160

189

214

13.3%

211

-1.3%

205

211

215

219

2.5%

193

221

250

12.8%

247

-1.0%

241

248

253

257

3.0%

carcase weight

195

186

Domestic utilisation ('000 tonnes carcase weight) mutton

29

13

6

6

8

43.1%

5

-33.9%

6

7

7

7

-12.2%

kg/capita

1.3

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.3

40.2%

0.2

-35.1%

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

-19.7%

lamb

225

215

200

224

210

-6.1%

193

-8.3%

185

184

184

185

-11.7%

kg/capita

10.3

9.7

9.0

9.9

9.1

-8.0%

8.2

-10.0%

7.7

7.5

7.4

7.3

-19.3%

Source: ABS, DA, MLA forecasts * excl. canned/miscellaneous

f = forecast (in italics) e = estimates

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

5

Australian sheep flock 

As at June 2014, the Australian sheep flock is forecast to be around 72 million



head – a 3% decline from 12 months previous.



conception rates than the previous two years, with many ewes not reaching joining condition. However, better conditions in southern regions of Australia, coupled

The most significant variable to underpin the estimated flock decline in 2013-14

with mild temperatures through autumn and winter, saw pastures and crops

was the large drought-induced sheep and lamb turnoff throughout 2013 –

perform much better than expected in 2013. Resulting from greater feed

especially in NSW. The 2013 calendar year saw the largest lamb slaughter on

availability, survival and spring marking rates were higher than expected, enabling

record combine with the largest sheep slaughter since 2008. However, the degree

ample lamb supplies for late 2013 and early 2014.

of the decline is expected to be somewhat softened by the turnoff of a large



number of older ewes retained over the past couple of seasons – which contributed to the flock rise throughout 2011 and 2012.



Hot and dry conditions prior to 2013 joining reportedly resulted in lower

Producer flock intention information collected in the MLA and AWI wool and sheepmeat survey (October 2010 to October 2013) clearly illustrate producer intentions to increase flocks in 2010-11 and 2011-12. In contrast, the return to

Historically, the size of the Australian sheep flock has been very reactive to

drier conditions in mid-2012, across most sheep growing regions saw producer

seasonal conditions, with a clear trend of declining numbers in dry periods and

intentions change dramatically, with many producers intending to decrease flocks.

flock growth during wetter periods. After recording the lowest sheep population in over a century in 2010 (70.1 million head), on the back of a lengthy dry spell since



Through to 2018, the sheep flock is forecast to increase gradually, based on the

2005, the Australian sheep flock grew to 74.7 million head, as at 30 June 2012,

assumption of "average" seasonal conditions from 2014 onwards. By June 2018

following back-to-back wet years in 2010 and 2011.

the Australian sheep flock is forecast to reach 74.25 million head, expanding each year from a low of 72 million in 2014.

Figure 5

Figure 4 Australian sheep flock 200

million head

50

Australian sheep flock by state

million head Queensland

NSW

Victoria

SA

WA

Tasmania

40

150

30 100 20 50

10

0

0 91

93

95

97

98

01

03

05

07

09

11

13e

15f

17f

96

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

6

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

As at 30 June, as at 31 March up until 1999

31 March until 1999, 30 June from 2000 e = estimate, f = forecast

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Source: ABS

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

MLA and AWI wool and sheepmeat survey Figure 6 Ewe flock size intentions increase

Survey results

maintain

decrease

100% 80%

Surveys are performed tri-annually, in February, June and October and attract an average of 2,000 responses per survey.

60%

There is strong representation from all states and from both Merino and non-Merino flocks.

20%

40%

0%

Survey results highlight current flock numbers and future supply intentions.





The total number of lambs on hand, as at October



Oct-11

The total number of lambs marked in the four months to October 2013 increased 6% on the same

corresponding period last year, underpinned by 7%

period last year, with the number of non-Merino

and 60% declines in the number of Merino and dual

lambs up 12% (marking rate 107%) and Merino

30

purpose breeds, respectively. Second cross and

lambs firm year-on-year (marking rate 87%).

25

shedding breeds performed well in 2013, slightly

Underpinning the increase was a rise in overall

offsetting the large decrease in Merinos and dual

joining and lambing rates in NSW and SA. However,

purpose breeds.

anecdotal evidence highlights a large variance in

5

marking rates between northern and southern

0

October 2013 (November to February) were expected to decline, with both Merino and nonMerino sales down 3% year-on-year. Furthermore,



Jun-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Figure 7 Lambs on hand and expected lamb sales - Australia

2013 was 3%, or 1 million head lower than the

Intended lamb sales in the four months following

Feb 12

Source: MLA and AWI sheepmeat and wool surveys

Merino

First cross

Dual purpose

Shedding

Second cross, pure meat, other

Expected sales Merino

Expected sales all others

35

million head

% of lambs on hand expected to be sold

80

20

60

15

40

10 20 0 October 2011

February 2012

June 2012

October 2012

February 2013

regions of both states.

Source: MLA and AWI sheepmeat and wool surveys

On the back of 'above-average' rainfall in southern

Figure 8 Marking rates - Australia

regions of Australia throughout winter, ewe flock

100

30

June 2013

October 2013

marking %

million head Ewes joined

Lambs marked

120

Marking rate (RHS)

anecdotal evidence suggested that the southern

intentions for 2014 were positive, with 30% of

25

100

Victoria and SA season was running four to six

producers intending to increase ewe flocks, 5%

20

80

weeks behind last year, and that heavy lambs were

higher than the same period last year. Furthermore,

15

60

likely be sold later, whereas in northern Victoria,

5% less producers are intending to decrease ewe

10

40

NSW and WA supply was expected to peak in

flocks in 2014, with around 55% looking to maintain

5

20

December and January.

current populations.

0

0 October 2011

February 2012

June 2012

October 2012

February 2013

June 2013

October 2013

Source: MLA and AWI sheepmeat and wool surveys

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

7

Lamb slaughter 



Australian lamb slaughter for 2014 is forecast to



decline 4.3% year-on-year, to 20.95 million head, as

coupled with further deteriorating northern regions,

a return to dry conditions in the spring of 2013 will

will likely see the surge of lambs to slaughter

likely see the large turnoff of light weight lambs in

continue throughout the first quarter of 2014. The

the last quarter of 2013 continue into the first

ability of producers to finish lambs to heavier

quarter of 2014.

weights is expected to be varied across regions – a

year-on-year, and more than 3% higher than the



million head

25 20 15 10 5

months.

previous record set in 1972.

0 91

Considering the current seasonal conditions during

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13e

15f

17f

e = estimate, f = forecast

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

joining and the large estimated sheep and lamb turnoff in 2013-14, it is forecast lamb supply will

Widespread rainfall, combined with mild

tighten significantly in 2015, on the back of a lower

temperatures in winter and spring in SA, southern Victoria and WA, boosted lamb survival and marking rates, with ample feed available. In contrast, NSW and Queensland experienced an extremely dry

Figure 9 Australian lamb slaughter

reflection of the mixed rainfall during the past 12

Total lamb slaughter in 2013 is estimated to be the highest on record, at 21.9 million head, up 9.4%



The onset of dry conditions in southern regions,



Figure 10 Monthly Australian lamb slaughter

breeding ewe flock and lower conception rates in

2200

2014.

2000

'000 head 2011

2012

2013

1800

Through to 2018, Australian lamb slaughter is

spring, seeing lambs offered at light weights in late

forecast to increase gradually, based on the

2013 and early 2014.

assumption of an improvement in marking rates from 2015 onwards (albeit an improvement from an expected low 2014) and the assumption of "average" seasonal conditions. By 2018, lamb

1600 1400 1200 1000 J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Source: ABS

slaughter is expected to climb back to 20.5 million head – still 6.4% below the record 2013 levels.

Figure 11 Quarterly lamb slaughter and saleyard prices 7

million head lamb slaughter

A¢/kg cwt

700

average trade lamb price

6

600

5

500

4

400

3

300

2

200

1

100

0

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts, MLA’s NLRS

8

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

e = estimate

Mutton slaughter 

In the wake of an estimated 9.54 million head slaughter in 2013, the result of a drought-induced surge in mutton turnoff levels and the largest adult sheep slaughter since 2008, Australian adult sheep slaughter for 2014 is forecast to decline 36% year-on-year, to 6.10 million head.



Although the total adult sheep slaughter was up significantly in 2013, in relative terms, it is assumed that the greater numbers turned off consisted of older ewes that were held back during the wet years from 2010 to 2012. The return to dry conditions at the beginning of 2013 was the catalyst for producers to actively reduce the older ewe flocks, as they retained younger breeding ewes built up through the previous wet years.



In the wake of a widespread winter break, a hot and dry spring and summer period, especially in NSW, stimulated further sheep turnoff, with poor feed and water conditions in western and northern parts of the state reducing the number of ewes expected to be joined in 2014.



Through to 2018, Australian adult sheep slaughter is forecast to increase gradually, in line with an increase in lamb turnoff, based on the assumption of an improvement in marking rates from 2015 onwards, on the back of an assumed return to "average" seasonal conditions.



By 2018, adult sheep slaughter is forecast to reach 7.35 million head, still 22.9% below the huge drought driven 2013 slaughter level.

Figure 12 Australian sheep slaughter 20

Figure 13 Australian monthly sheep slaughter

million head 1000

Figure 14 Quarterly sheep slaughter and saleyard prices

'000 head 2011

2012

2013

5

800

15

million head sheep slaughter

A¢/kg cwt

500

average sheep price

4

400

3

300

2

200

1

100

600 10 400 5

200

0

0 91

93

95

97

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13e

15f

17f

e = estimate, f = forecast

J Source: ABS

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

0

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts, MLA’s NLRS

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

9

Lamb and mutton production and carcase weights 

Australian lamb production is forecast to contract



4.3% in 2014, to around 440,000 tonnes cwt,



tonnes cwt in 2014, down 77,000 tonnes, or 33%

underpinned by a large reduction in slaughter, after

on an estimated 214,000 tonnes cwt in 2013 (the

record levels in 2013.

highest since 2008). Similar to lamb, the contraction

in Victoria and NSW, will likely see carcase weights remain firm year-on-year, at 21.0kg/head cwt. Disregarding the historically large average lamb



Figure 15 Australian lamb production 500

'000 tonnes cwt production

kg/head

25

carcase weight

400

23

300

21

by a likely large reduction in slaughter, slightly offset

200

19

by an expected small increase in carcase weights.

100

17

of mutton production forecast for 2014 is supported

Growing demand for smaller cuts from international markets, combined with widespread dry conditions



Likewise, mutton production is forecast at 137,000

Mutton carcase weights are forecast to average

0

15 91

22.5kg/head in 2014, up 0.1kg on 2013.

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13e 15f 17f e = estimate, f = forecast

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

carcase weights recorded in 2011 and 2012, where the wet years supported weight gains, the average annual carcase weights beyond 2014 are forecast to

Figure 16 Mutton production and carcase weight 500

'000 tonnes cwt production

continue the upward trend since 1986, on the back

kg/head

25

carcase weight

400

23

300

21

specialised meat breeds. This growth is forecast to

200

19

continue reaching 21.6kg/head in 2018, a 3%

100

17

of improvements in feed efficiency, husbandry practices, genetics and the proliferation of

increase on 2013.



15 91

For 2013, Australian lamb production outstripped the previous record in 2012 by 3.3%, or 15,000 tonnes, at an estimated 460,000 tonnes cwt. This was the result of a sharp jump in slaughter, which was lessened by lower than average carcase weights – driven by drought conditions in NSW.

10

0

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

93

95

97

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13e 15f 17f e = estimate, f = forecast

Sheep farm income 



The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

In contrast, crops were reportedly estimated to make up 54% of total cash receipts of slaughter lamb producing businesses (650 ha sown to crop), at

producing farms. The full report can be found at: http : //www . daff.gov.au/

$303,000 per farm in 2012-13 – an increase of 5% on 2011-12. Along with lamb,

ABARES/pages/publications/display.aspx?url=http : //143.188.17.20/anrdl/

beef cattle and wool sales were also forecast to finish 2012-13 below 2011-12

DAFFService display.php?fid=pb_alfpfd9aabf00320130626_11a.xml

levels, at $52,000 per farm and $68,000 per farm, respectively.

According to 2012-13 results, average total farm cash income for slaughter lamb



However, the estimated tighter supply as 2014 progresses, on the back of poor

producing farms in 2012-13 was estimated to have declined by 19%, to $139,000

marking percentages in late 2013, will likely have a large impact on slaughter

per farm. Although down considerably on 2011-12, the result for 2012-13 is still

lamb farm incomes over the medium term.

estimated to be 13% above the 10-year average. The results clearly highlight the impact of lower prices and tougher seasonal conditions during 2012-13.





(ABARES) reports annually on the financial performance of slaughter lamb



National average saleyard lamb prices for the first six months of the 2013-14 fiscal year were higher than the same period in 2012-13 across all categories,

For 2012-13, the increased number of lambs sold was more than offset by the

with the trade lamb indicator up 14% year-on-year, averaging 430¢/kg cwt. While

decrease in average lamb prices. The average slaughter lamb price was estimated

average lamb prices are anticipated to improve during 2014, the ability for lambs

to be 25% lower, on the back of increased supply at lighter finishing weights. As a

to meet market specifications, especially in NSW given the very dry conditions,

result, average receipts from lamb sales were estimated to have declined by 22%

will ultimately determine average farm incomes in 2013-14.

on the previous year, to $80,000 per farm. Lower prices also offset a larger number of adult sheep sold in 2012-13, with adult sheep receipts per-farm averaging $26,000 – down 34% on 2011-12.

Figure 17 Australian slaughter lamb farm income $'000 (2012-13 dollars)

200

2012-13 Average Slaughter Lamb Farm Incomes

farm cash income farm business profit

150

Small (200-500 head sold) – down 20%, to $85,000 per farm

100 50

Medium (500-1000 head sold) – down 25%, to $126,000 per farm

0

Large (1000-2000 head sold) – up 1%, to $230,000 per farm

-50 -100 90-91

92-93

Source: ABARES

94-95

96-97

98-99

00-01

02-03

financial year

04-05

06-07

08-09

10-11

12-13e

Very Large (more than 2000 head sold) – down 28%, to $338,000 per farm

e = estimate

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

11

2014 demand outlook 

The 2014 demand outlook for Australian lamb industry looks bright – a combination of the lower A$, robust demand from major markets and much tighter supplies out of New Zealand (Australia’s main competition in the

 

250

global sheepmeat trade)

200

After surging to a record calendar year volume in 2013, at 213,714 tonnes swt, total Australian lamb exports for

150

2014 are forecast to decline 1.5%, to 211,000 tonnes swt.

100

The 1.5% decline for 2014, however, is solely based upon the expectation of a decline in available supplies – compared to the record production and slaughter volumes registered in 2013. However, as a percentage of production, exports will increase to 56.1%, up from 38.5% a decade earlier.

12

Figure 18 Australian lamb exports

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

'000 tonnes swt

50 0 95

97

99

01

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

03

05

07

09

11

13

15f

17f f = forecast

2014 lamb demand outlook Table 2

Australian exports of lamb ('000 tonnes shipped weight) 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

% change

2014 f

% change f

46.5

39.5

39.4

42.1

45.6

8%

48.5

6%

38.3

34.1

34.3

36.7

39.2

7%

42.0

7%

To: North America US - Canada

5.1

3.7

3.9

4.7

5.6

19%

6.0

8%

- Mexico

3.1

1.8

1.2

0.8

0.8

6%

0.5

-40%

Middle East

35.9

36.7

34.9

51.8

59.8

15%

61.0

2%

Greater China

25.7

25.8

29.6

34.6

48.9

41%

51.0

4%

- China

13.9

15.7

21.2

29.5

39.5

34%

43.3

10%

- Hong Kong

10.4

8.1

6.2

3.5

7.5

116%

6.5

-14%

- Taiwan

1.4

2.0

2.1

1.6

1.8

14%

1.2

-35%

South East Asia

7.0

9.3

9.6

9.7

11.5

19%

10.0

-13%

Japan

8.3

7.7

7.4

7.7

7.7

0%

7.5

-3%

South Korea

1.2

2.1

2.7

3.0

3.2

6%

3.0

-6%

EU

13.7

12.0

13.0

12.1

11.7

-3%

12.0

2%

Other Europe

3.3

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.1

-13%

3.0

-3%

Pacific

11.2

9.5

10.9

14.0

13.3

-5%

8.0

-40%

South Africa

2.9

3.0

3.2

2.0

1.8

-9%

1.5

-15%

Other Africa/Mauritius

6.5

4.0

3.4

5.7

4.4

-23%

3.0

-31%

Other

2.8

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.8

15%

2.5

-11%

Total

165.0

155.5

160.0

188.6

213.7

13%

211

-1%

Source: DA, MLA forecasts

f = forecasts (indicated in italics)

Pacific = PNG, New Zealand & Pacific Islands Other Europe = CIS, Eastern Europe and Western Europe other than EU South East Asia = Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

13

2014 mutton demand outlook Table 3

Australian exports of mutton ('000 tonnes shipped weight) 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

% change

2014 f

% change

Middle East

51.9

42.9

39.5

46.7

40.9

-12%

34.1

-17%

Greater China

17.2

11.7

9.2

22.1

71.2

222%

51.0

-28%

8.5

6.7

5.1

16.4

57.9

254%

47.0

-19% -85%

To:

- China - Hong Kong

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.9

6.6

631%

1.0

- Taiwan

7.7

4.2

3.6

4.9

6.6

36%

3.0

-55%

14.6

12.6

9.1

11.8

22.2

89%

6.5

-71%

Japan

5.6

3.8

4.5

3.2

3.8

20%

3.0

-21%

South Korea

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

4%

1.0

-4%

17.9

11.7

6.1

8.1

12.2

51%

6.4

-48%

South East Asia

North America

10.8

8.7

4.5

7.5

8.7

17%

6.0

-31%

- Mexico

4.2

1.0

0.2

0.4

2.9

618%

0.2

-93%

- Other North America

3.0

2.0

1.3

1.3

0.6

-56%

0.2

-64%

EU

5.4

4.9

3.5

3.7

5.0

34%

3.3

-34%

Other Europe

5.5

4.5

3.2

4.5

4.7

4%

2.0

-57%

Pacific

5.5

1.6

2.0

1.0

2.5

153%

1.0

-60%

South Africa

4.4

1.6

1.9

1.3

1.2

-4%

0.3

-75%

Other Africa/Mauritius

4.2

2.2

1.6

1.6

4.8

192%

0.8

-83%

Other

1.0

0.5

0.6

1.8

2.6

46%

0.6

-77%

Total

134.0

99.1

82.2

106.7

172.0

61%

110.0

-36%

- US

Source: DA, MLA forecasts Pacific = PNG, New Zealand & Pacific Islands Other North America = Canada and the Caribbean North Asia = Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong Other Europe = CIS, Eastern Europe and Western Europe other than EU South East Asia = Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam

14

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

f = forecasts (indicated in italics)

New Zealand 





The New Zealand (NZ) sheepmeat industry is

Export lamb slaughter for 2013-14 (October to



Beef + Lamb NZ also reported that mutton slaughter

heavily dependent on export markets, with over

September) is forecast to decrease by nearly 11%

is estimated to fall nearly 6% year-on-year, to 3.9

90% of production exported each year. Since a

to 18.6 million head, the lowest lamb slaughter in

million head, after high export slaughter in 2012-13.

peak in the mid-1980’s, the NZ sheep flock has

decades, on the back of lower marking

Interestingly, this reflects unchanged sheep

been steadily declining, with numbers estimated to

percentages. However, solid rainfall and higher than

numbers rather than the rebuilding of the national

have been 30.94 million head as at 30 June 2013,

average temperatures throughout winter assisted

ewe flock, based on the relative profitability of

down around 1% year-on-year – the smallest in

pasture growth and supported post-marking

alternative agricultural enterprises competing for

recent history (Statistics NZ).

survival rates. Furthermore, good growing

land. At the mid exchange rate of US$ to NZ$ 0.79,

conditions and high feed availability are likely to see

the average annual mutton price is likely to increase

average carcase weights increase 2% in 2013-14,

9% year-on-year, to $67/head – driven by tighter

to 18.4kg, minimising the impact of a smaller lamb

supply in 2013-14.

According to Beef + Lamb NZ’s New Season Outlook 2013-14, the spring 2013 lamb crop is estimated to be down around 8%, or 2.1 million head. This reflects the severity of the widespread drought in summer and autumn 2012-13, which resulted in fewer ewes joined, with a large portion of

crop. As a result, export lamb production is forecast



to decrease 9% year-on-year, to around 342,000

In 2013-14, total lamb exports are forecast to decrease by around 9% on the previous year, to

tonnes cwt.

approximately 285,000 tonnes swt. Export receipts

hoggets not mated due to poor condition during the

under the mid exchange rate (1 NZ$=US$0.79) are

peak joining period in summer.

estimated to remain firm on 2012-13, at $2.56 billion, as a significant reduction in supply is offset

Key factors

by a forecast 10% improvement in export value. around $8,000/tonne.

Drought conditions in 2012-13 have led to the smallest lamb crop in almost 60 years.

Figure 19 NZ lamb exports 60

% change in exports 2013 v 2012

600 89,558 tonnes swt

40 20

Figure 20 Sheepmeat export volume Aus v NZ

307,918 tonnes swt

123,344 tonnes swt

18,181 tonnes swt

0

Forecast for tight supplies in 2013-14 to see total exports back 9% year-on-year.

25,240 tonnes swt

-20 -40 total Source: Beef + Lamb NZ

EU

China

Middle East

Shipments to the Middle East decline as China and the EU continue to increase demand.

US

figures represent 2013 total

Export receipts to remain firm in 201314, due to 10% growth in lamb export value.

'000 tonnes cwe Australia

New Zealand

550 500 450 400 350 300 2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

Source: FAO-OECD

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

15

Sheep flock 72 million head

Australia

(as at 30 June, 2014)

Annual lamb consumption 2013 9.1kg/capita Annual lamb production 2013 460,000 tonnes cwt

16

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

 Australian domestic lamb consumption to decrease 8.3% year-on-year, to 193,000 tonnes cwt  Export lamb to increase market share of production to 56% due to strong international demand  Domestic food service growth to remain firm

Australian market Australian market

Australian economy

Consumer trends









Lamb consumed in the Australian market is

stable, and better placed than many other world

and volatile to the global economic environment,

193,000 tonnes cwt, following the 6.1% annual fall

economies, despite the economy growing below trend

changes in the level of mining investment and the

registered in 2013 (210,000 tonnes cwt).

in the past year.

political landscape.

Despite lamb’s niche position in the Australian



Inflation in Australia continues to remain relatively



On the whole, consumer confidence in 2013 was

market and consumer resilience in this segment of

low, with the consumer price index (CPI) only rising

above 2012 levels, and finished December on 116.3

the market in recent years, the major challenge for

2.4% on the June quarter 2012 and 2.2% on the

points, lower than the confidence registered

the Australian lamb market in 2014 and beyond is

September quarter 2012 (latest available).

between September and November by 4-5



forecast to take 56% of Australian lamb production



increasing pressure on key world lamb exporters market.

Roy Morgan noted that consumer confidence ended 2013 on a low note, with unemployment rising.

104US¢ in April, and 105US¢ in January 2013.

middle income population, will continue to place and lift the competition for lamb in the Australian



for the month as at January 2014), coming off

by a lower A$ and expanding global demand. Increasing population growth, along with a growing

percentage points.

In the past year, (since January 2013), the A$ has depreciated 14% and is currently at 89US¢ (average

in 2014 (this compares with 46% in 2010) – fuelled



Australian consumer confidence remains sensitive

expected to fall 8.3% year-on-year in 2014, to

the expected continued growth in export markets,



Australia’s economic health remains resilient and



Consumer confidence started 2014 on 116.4 points,

In 2014, the A$ (see page 4) is expected to trade

but remains lower than the 118.3 points registered

between 84-90US¢ – again providing a huge boost

the same week in 2013.

to export demand.



Australia’s population is currently expanding at an annual rate of 1.8%.

These anticipated market trends will be further exacerbated in 2014, as a result of the expected 4.3% fall in Australian lamb production.

Figure 22 Mutton exports and domestic utilisation

Figure 21 Domestic lamb utilisation 300

'000 tonnes cwt 400

'000 tonnes cwt export

domestic utilisation

350

250

300 200

250

150

200

100

150 100

50

50

0

0 91

93

95

97

99

Source: ABS, ABARES, MLA forecasts

01

03

05

07

09

11

13e

15f

17f

e = estimate, f = forecast

95

97

99

01

Source: DA, ABS, MLA forecasts

03

05

07

09

11

13e

15f

17f

e = estimate, f = forecast

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

17

Australian market Retail prices 

Average retail lamb prices have retreated slightly since the June quarter 2012. Lamb prices hit a high point in the June quarter 2011 at $14.99/kg. Following this they started to fall, but also fluctuated, before a clear downward trend was noted since June 2012, which continued into 2013.



This trend is not surprising given the lower livestock prices throughout the year, the challenging consumer market and price competition among retailers in recent years.



As a result, retail lamb prices averaged $12.54/kg in the first three quarters of 2013, much lower than prices over the same period in 2012 ($14.20/kg) and 2011 ($14.73/kg).

Retail value and volume trends 

In line with the falling prices, over the calendar year to November, AC Nielsen Homescan data suggests that the total fresh lamb retail value edged up 0.5% compared with the same period in 2012, while total volumes increased 7.1%. As lamb is considered to be more of a luxury item, the fall in prices throughout the year has meant that more consumers were able to purchase more of the product.

Figure 23 Australian retail meat prices* 1800

A¢/kg retail weight

beef

lamb

chicken

pork

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 2000

Source: ABS

18

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

* = subject to revision

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Australian market 

Foodservice trends  





Factors generally contributing to the weaker

among foodservice operators (based on a 100 point

Foodservice growth in the Australian market is

uncertainty in the Australian and global economy,

score) in October improved on June estimates for

expected to remain flat in 2014.

particularly the political uncertainty prior to the

restaurants, hotels/motels, clubs/pubs, and quick

BIS Foodservice, in their October report noted that

election and the decline in mining investment.

service restaurants, but was lower for cafes, and

households were spending significantly less than

Therefore, despite the rate cuts, economic growth

caterers. The confidence score was highest for

what was forecast just six months previously, with

weakened throughout the year. Further noted, was

quick service restaurant chains (87 points),

catering expenditure contracting.

the weaker employment, wage and income growth

restaurants (80 points) and clubs/pubs (79 points).

throughout the year.

BIS Shrapnel also noted that across both the





BIS Foodservice also measures how operators

These factors have meant that BIS Foodservice’s

believe their business will perform in the next six

are facing difficulties in dealing with increased costs

economic forecasts were revised down to 2.3% for

months. According to the October results, the

across the board; utilities, insurance, labour, and

GDP in 2013-14, and 2.4% growth for household

strongest confidence was among quick service

rent.

consumption expenditure over the same period

restaurant chains, followed by hotels/motels.

(down from a forecast of 2.7% growth in their June

Confidence was lowest among quick service

report).

independents and caterers.

commercial and institutional sectors, all channels

Figure 24 Restaurants, cafes and takeaway turnover cycle

Domestic market performance – past 20 years

Figure 25 Australian retail fresh meat s hares All shoppers purchase value

% change 14.0

All shoppers purchase volume

12.3

12.0 8.8

9.2

9.5

8.6

Beef 36.8%

8.0

Beef 37.5%

6.7

6.6

4.0

3.6

2.7

2.0 0.0

0.3

-1.0

-2.0

01

02

03

04

Source: ABS, 8501.0 ‘original series’

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

Lamb 13.4% other 1.5%

1.1

00

Chicken 32.4%

Chicken 26.6%

10.2

10.5

10.0

6.0

Interestingly, despite the above trends, confidence

performance in 2013 include the continued

12

13*

* = January to November

Pork 10.2%

Source: AC Nielsen scan data

Veal 1.2% Turkey 1.1% Seafood 9.3%

Lamb 12.1% Veal 0.8%

other 1.5% Pork 9.8%

Turkey 1.2% Seafood 4.7%

Australian lamb production has increased 78% over the past 20 years, from 258,600 tonnes cwt in 1993 to 460,000 tonnes cwt in 2013. Over the same period, domestic lamb consumption has remained relatively firm, increasing only 1% to 210,000 tonnes cwt, from 80% of total production in 1993, to an estimated 45.7% in 2013.

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

19

Middle East

 Australian lamb exports to reach 61,000 tonnes swt in 2014, up 2% year-on-year

 Higher lamb shipments to Bahrain

 Australian 2013 lamb exports to the Middle East: 59,777 tonnes swt  Australian 2013 mutton exports to the Middle East: 40,910 tonnes swt  Australian 2013 live sheep exports to the Middle East: 1.88 million head

20

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

heavily contributed to the increase in volumes to the region, up from 3,336 tonnes swt in 2012 to 13,351 tonnes swt in 2013

 Australian mutton exports to decline to 34,100 tonnes swt in 2014, down 17% year-on-year

Middle East Lamb 



Australian lamb exports to the Middle East are forecast to reach 61,000 tonnes swt in 2014, an increase of 2% on 2013 shipments. Despite a decline in overall

region. Demand for Australian carcase lamb drove exports to 13,351 tonnes swt in

production for 2014, Australian lamb exports to the Middle East are expected to

2013, up from 3,326 tonnes swt in 2012.

maintain their recent growth path, assisted by reduced competition, lower A$ and



sustained consumer demand across the region.



Shipments to Iran remain sporadic, with 2,755 tonnes swt exported in 2013, down from 7,271 tonnes swt in 2012. Sanctions placed on Iran by the international

Australian lamb exports to the Middle East have grown rapidly in recent years,

community, currency fluctuations and the reluctance of shipping companies to

totalling 59,777 tonnes swt in 2013. In 2008, shipments totalled 25,500 tonnes swt,

move product directly to Iran have hindered the trade.

with consistent growth in exports since then an indication of the strength of the



region as a destination for Australian lamb.



Higher lamb exports to Bahrain also contributed to the increase in volumes to the

Encouragingly, Kuwait has also emerged as a strong market for Australian lamb exports. Shipments in 2013 totalled 4,150 tonnes swt, growth of 40% year-on-

In recent years, there has been consistent growth to Australia’s largest market in

year.

the region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In 2013, 15,724 tonnes swt of



Australian lamb was destined for the UAE, growth of 19% year-on-year. Solid

The economic outlook for the broader Middle East region is positive; GDP growth is forecast at 3.8% in 2014 and 4.2% in 2015, a positive for lamb consumption.

economic growth forecasts for the UAE, of 3.9% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015, look set to help sustain demand for Australian red meat.

Turpis justo, consequat sed viverra quis, viverra eget ante. Pellentesque auctor suscipit tellus, sit amet pulvinar massa semper ut. Donec bibendum tellus vel Figure 26 Lamb exports to the Middle East ullamcorper lobortis. Ut quis augue pulvinar, '000 tonnes swt 70 blandit tellus. 60

Pellentesque auctor suscipit tellus, sit amet pulvinar massa semper ut. Donec bibendum 30 tellus vel ullamcorper lobortis. Ut quis 20 augue pulvinar, blandit tellus. 10 50 40

0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts

f = forecast

Figure 27 Lamb exports to the Middle East - by market 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Figure 28 Lamb exports to the Middle East by cut - 2013

'000 tonnes swt 2012

carcase 73.9%

2013

other 4.0% rack 2.9%

an rd Jo Source: DA

U

AE

Q

ar at

a bi ra iA d u Sa

n Ira

it wa Ku

el ra Is

n ai hr Ba

r he ot Source: DA

leg 8.5%

shoulder 7.5%

forequarter 3.2%

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

21

Middle East 

Mutton 

10,404 tonnes swt of mutton destined for UAE ports. This was a slight decline

Australian mutton exports to the Middle East are forecast to reach 34,100 tonnes

(6%) year-on-year.

swt in 2014, a decrease of 17% on 2013 shipments. The forecast reduction in



mutton exports to the region comes as Australian mutton production is anticipated

Australian lamb carcase exports to the market has reportedly impacted on mutton

demand for mutton.

volumes, with lamb carcases (13,301 tonnes swt in 2013) gaining preference over

The Middle East is an important market for Australian mutton, with 40,911 tonnes

mutton.

swt shipped to the region in 2013. This represented 24% of all Australian mutton



exports. Illustrating the impact of growing Chinese demand on mutton shipments

estimated at 5% in 2013 and forecast to reach 3.4% in 2014, paints a positive

Middle East in 2012, representing 44% of all Australian mutton exports.

picture for protein demand in the country.

Saudi Arabia remained Australia’s largest market for mutton in the region in 2013,



with 12,761 tonnes swt. This was a slight increase on 2012 exports (up 1%) and

60

The economic outlook for the broader Middle East region is positive; GDP growth is forecast at 3.8% in 2014 and 4.2% in 2015, helping underlying demand for

the highest level of shipments to Saudi Arabia since 2009.

Figure 29 Mutton exports to the Middle East

Oman emerged as a growing market for Australian mutton in 2013, with shipments up 79% year-on-year, to 5,458 tonnes swt. Strong economic growth in Oman,

to the Middle East, 46,710 tonnes swt of Australian mutton was destined for the



Bahrain, previously a large market for Australian mutton exports (6,318 tonnes swt in 2012), took next to no Australian mutton (12 tonnes) in 2013. The increase in

to drop from highs seen in 2013, and China is expected to maintain its strong



The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was Australia’s second largest market, with

Australian sheepmeat.

Figure 30 Mutton exports to the Middle East - by market

'000 tonnes swt

14

'000 tonnes swt 2012

12

50

Figure 31 Mutton exports to the Middle East by cut - 2013 carcase 55.0%

2013

10

40

8

30

6 4

20

0

10 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts

22

other 8.6%

2

f = forecast

an rd Jo Source: DA

U

AE

Q

ar at

r iA ud Sa

ia ab

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Ira

n w Ku

t ai

n ai hr Ba

t yp Eg

m O

an O

er th

rack 2.3%

leg 21.7%

Source: DA

shoulder 4.9%

manufacturing 7.5%

United States  Australian lamb exports to the US to increase 7% in 2014, to 42,000 tonnes swt  Chilled lamb accounted for 45% of lamb exported from Australia to the US, compared to 30% in 2003

Sheep flock

 Lamb legs accounted for 31% of Australian lamb exports to the US

5.2 million head Annual sheepmeat consumption

0.4kg/capita (retail weight)

Annual sheepmeat production

71,000 tonnes cwe Annual sheepmeat imports

78,000 tonnes cwe MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

23

United States 

Lamb 

go to the north-east of the country, where per capita

2012, legs increased closer to a more regular

lamb consumption is almost double the national

grow a further 7% in 2014, to 42,000 tonnes swt,

volume over 12,000 tonnes in 2013. In 2013, there

average. This is in large part due to the relative

which would be the highest calendar year total

was also a large increase in what are classified as

wealth of the region allowing for greater

since 2007. Although total exports are expected to

“assorted cuts”, which includes packages of three

consumption of lamb – a more expensive protein.

be slightly lower, the high value nature of the US

or more primals. This is likely to have accounted for

market, along with the added advantage of a lower

more leg exports in some packages, after growing

A$, is likely to help increase its share of total

from 4,200 tonnes in 2012 to 8,500 tonnes in 2013.





The peak demand periods for lamb in the US are Easter and winter (between Thanksgiving and Christmas), which has the potential to coincide well

Rack, shank, shortloin and shoulder exports

with Australia’s peak supply periods in autumn and

Much of the export growth in 2014 is expected to

account for the majority of other lamb exports to the

spring.

come in the form of chilled product, which would

US, all of which were around 4,000 tonnes in 2013.

continue the long term trend. In 2013, chilled lamb

There was a large drop, however, in shoulder

accounted for 45% of all Australian lamb shipped to

exports – largely due to the increased popularity in

the US, compared with 30% in 2003.

China.

Figure 33 Lamb exports to the US by cut - 2013

'000 tonnes swt

assorted primals 21.7%

leg 31.3%

40

Figure 34 Mutton exports to the US 25

'000 tonnes swt

20

30

15 other 0.6%

manufacturing 1.7%

20 10

shoulder 10.3%

rack 10.2%

0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts

24

Most of the high value lamb cuts exported to the US

Australian lamb exports to the US are forecast to

Figure 32 Lamb exports to the US 50



largest volume export cut to the US – after a dip in

exports.



Legs should easily maintain their position as the

f = forecast

Source: DA

shank 10.5%

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

shortloin 9.5%

carcase 4.1%

10 5 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts

f = forecast

Sheep flock

China

282 million head Annual sheepmeat consumption

3kg/capita Annual sheepmeat production

4.1 million tonnes cwe

The development of the Chinese market as a major destination for Australian sheepmeat in 2013 was very welcome for the Australian sheep industry, helping to consume the large increased supply out of Australia. Food safety is a major issue for Chinese consumers, and Australia’s strong food safety regulations and the ‘clean & green’ image have helped boost exports to China in recent years.

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

25

China Lamb 





China’s proportion of Australia’s lamb exports is expected to increase further in



While NZ lamb has a strong presence in China (with its market share at 54% in

2014, with total volumes forecast to increase 10% on the record 2013 volume, to

2013), Australia has maintained its market share at over 40% since 2008 (at 43%

43,300 tonnes swt. Robust demand and subsequent high sheepmeat prices in the

in 2013). Although the existing NZ-China Free Trade Agreement places Australia at

Chinese market are expected to continue throughout 2014, attracting additional

a competitive disadvantage, the impact of the NZ’s tariff advantage is expected to

volumes of Australian product.

be subtle in 2014, due to NZ’s anticipated lower production.

Australian lamb exports to China during 2013 reached new heights, at 39,535



In 2013, the most popular cut shipped to China remained breast and flap

tonnes swt, assisted by rising demand and Australia’s higher production. The

(traditionally high demand particularly for hot pots) at 20,331 tonnes swt,

record annual volume represented 18% of Australia’s total lamb exports in 2013.

accounting for 51% of Australian lamb exported to China during 2013. Reflecting

China’s GDP growth is forecast to slow down in the lead up to 2018 – from 7.7% in 2013 to 6.1% in 2018 (IMA Asia). Although China’s population is expected to

China’s strict control over food safety, manufacturing lamb exports were down slightly (1% year-on-year), at 5,885 tonnes swt. In contrast, shoulder and carcase exports surged to 6,701 tonnes swt (up 261% year-on-year) and 2,589 tonnes swt

continue growing, reduced growth in working-age population will have a dampening impact on the GDP. However, the fundamentals will remain relatively

(from only 81 tonnes swt in 2012 - up 3,094%), respectively.

strong in comparison to major global economies. In addition, ongoing urbanisation and changes in diet, along with rapid growth of online retailers are expected to contribute to sustained demand from China for Australian lamb.

Figure 35 Lamb exports to China

Figure 36 Lamb exports to China by cut - 2013

'000 tonnes swt

breast & flap 51.4%

50

other 3.2% carcase 6.5%

40 30

neck 7.0%

20 10

manufacturing 14.9%

0 95

96

97

98

99

Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts

26

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14f

f = forecast

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Source: DA

shoulder 16.9%

China Mutton 



In line with the forecast reduction in Australia’s

 

The top three cuts (carcase, breast & flap and leg)

mutton production in 2014, exports to China for the

exported to China during 2013 accounted for 86%

year are forecast to be down 19% year-on-year, to

of total shipments. The cut in the highest demand

47,000 tonnes swt. China was placed as the largest

was carcase, at 27,026 tonnes swt (from 2,359

export destination for Australian mutton in 2013, at

tonnes swt in 2012). Increased demand for mutton

a record 57,888 tonnes swt – or 34% of Australia’s

(along with lamb and beef) carcase was related to

total mutton exports in 2013.

the declining national local flock, driven by an

China’s intake of NZ mutton during 2013 also

attempt reduce costs and get local processors to

climbed 192% year-on-year, to 49,332 tonnes swt.

process the carcase. Following carcase were breast

In addition to the strong fundamentals, a shortage of lamb in the Chinese market has reportedly driven increased demand for imported mutton. A lack of sheepmeat supply in the Chinese market has also

& flap and leg, at 16,276 tonnes swt (up 87% yearon-year) and 6,390 tonnes swt (up 267%), respectively. Shoulder exports also jumped 339%, to 3,391 tonnes swt.

caused a surge of market prices. The 2013 average bone-in sheepmeat retail price reached RMB62.33/ kg (A$10.55), up 20% on 2012 and 115% higher than the ten-year average.

Figure 38 Mutton exports to China by cut - 2013

Figure 37 Mutton exports to China 50

breast & flap 28.1%

'000 tonnes swt

40

shoulder 5.9%

other 4.9%

30 manufacturing 3.4%

20

leg 11.0%

10 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts

f = forecast

Source: DA

carcase 46.7%

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

27

European Union 



Australian lamb exports to the EU are forecast to



A surge of New Zealand (NZ) exports onto the market



Economic conditions in the EU are forecast to

reach 12,000 tonnes swt in 2014, up 2% on the

in the first half of 2013, a result of drought in NZ,

improve in 2014. The UK, with GDP growth of 1.4%

previous year. Australian sheepmeat exports to the

contributed to a tough operating environment for

in 2013, is forecast to grow at 1.9% in 2014.

EU are constrained by a small country specific

Australian sheepmeat exporters. With a tightening in

Although only a moderate strengthening in growth,

quota allocation, of 19,186 tonnes cwe. This,

NZ supply as 2013 progressed, Australian lamb was

this compares with 0.2% in 2012, where the UK

combined with tough economic conditions in the

able to flow to the market at higher prices. NZ, with

narrowly avoided recession.

EU, has defined the operating environment for

quota access of 228,254 tonnes cwe, dominates

Australian sheepmeat in the EU in recent years.

imported lamb market share throughout the EU.





A forecast decline in sheepmeat production in the EU, combined with largely stagnant imports, is set

Encouragingly, NZ supplies are anticipated to

to impact negatively on sheepmeat consumption in

down 3% year-on-year. Despite the reduction in

remain relatively tight in 2014. This, combined with

coming years. From 2012 through to 2022,

lamb shipments, 2013 was a better year for

an improvement in economic sentiment throughout

sheepmeat consumption is forecast to fall from

Australian sheepmeat exporters to the market.

Europe, and in particular in the UK, Australia’s

2.2kg per capita to 1.95kg per capita, tempering the

Quota usage, which was 89% in 2012, increased to

largest sheepmeat market in the region, look set to

long term outlook.

99% in 2013, an indication of an improvement in

make for a positive year for Australian sheepmeat

conditions in the market, along with additional

exporters to the EU.

Australian lamb exports totalled 11,746 tonnes swt,

Australian supplies.

Figure 39 Lamb exports to EU 16

Figure 40 Lamb exports to EU by cut - 2013 chump 5.9%

'000 tonnes swt leg 51.3%

14

Figure 41 Mutton exports to EU 14

'000 tonnes swt

12 other 10.2%

12 10

10 8

8 6

6 shank 15.3%

4 2 boneless loin 1.7%

0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA, MLA forecasts

28

f = forecast

Source: DA

manufacturing 14.2%

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

rack 1.4%

4 2 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA, MLA forecasts

f = forecast

Japan Lamb 

While a continued improvement is expected in the

Mutton 

12

Hokkaido economy and in the performance of

assisted Australian mutton exports to Japan during

10

Genghis Khan (Hokkaido style Sheepmeat

2013, with volumes increasing 20% year-on-year to

8

barbecue) foodservice sector, the weak Yen,

3,787 tonnes swt – with a 54% lift in chilled

6

combined with strong competition for Australian

shipments (to 85 tonnes swt).

4



shipments in 2014, limiting volumes to Japan to

1,163 tonnes swt, and 36% to 1,427 tonnes swt,

at 7,697 tonnes swt, 11 tonnes more than the

respectively, while backstrap volume slightly eased

previous year. Improved supplies of chilled lamb

(0.9%) to 894 tonnes swt.

year-on-year, to 5,208 tonnes, while frozen lamb volumes were down 7% to 2,489 tonnes swt. Slow but gradual improvement of the tourism and local economy in the Hokkaido region – the largest sheepmeat consumption area – continued to underpin the volumes in the market.

0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA, MLA forecasts



Figure 43 Lamb exports to Japan by cut - 2013 manufacturing 31.8%

leg 7.0% other 4.5%

Sheepmeat demand in 2014 is expected to remain similar to 2013 levels, with any improvement in rack 8.2%

buying hinging upon the market’s economic strength and supplies from New Zealand. The small, but well established, Genghis Khan market continues to require lamb and mutton shoulder cuts.

Source: DA

shoulder 48.4%

That said, the Australian supply situation is

The cut trend in 2013 was similar to 2012 and

expected to tighten, for mutton in particular,

previous years, with a 17% increase in shoulder

resulting in an anticipated 20.8% decline in mutton

shipments to 3,728 tonnes swt, but the growth was

exports to Japan, at 3,000 tonnes swt.

Figure 44 Mutton exports to Japan 25

partially offset by a 18% decline in shoulder meat

20

exports (more affordable alternative to shoulder,

15

with neck fillet removed) at 2,448 tonnes swt. Rack

f = forecast

meat) during 2013 increased 30% from 2012 to

Lamb shipments to Japan during 2013 were stable

from Australia lifted shipments to Japan by 4%

'000 tonnes swt

2

Broken down by cut, shipments of leg and manufacturing (mostly trunk meat and shoulder

7,500 tonnes swt.



14

The improvement in the Hokkaido economy also

lamb from other markets, will likely constrain



Figure 42 Lamb exports to Japan

'000 tonnes swt

10

(633 tonnes swt, down 7%) and leg (540 tonnes swt, up 27%) shipments were other major cuts to

5

Japan.

0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA, MLA forecasts

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

f = forecast

29

Hong Kong and Taiwan Hong Kong

Taiwan

Lamb

Lamb

Mutton







In anticipation of sustained demand from the major

Taiwan during 2014 are forecast to be down 35%

forecast to be down 55% on 2013, at 3,000 tonnes

Australian lamb exports to Hong Kong during 2014

on 2013, at 1,200 tonnes swt.

swt.



tonnes swt.

In 2013, Australian lamb exports to Taiwan rose



Australia’s annual mutton shipments to Taiwan

14% year-on-year, to 1,834 tonnes swt. While

during 2013 were 36% above 2012, at 6,649 tonnes

Partly assisted by lower NZ lamb exports to Hong

manufacturing increased 115% year-on-year, to

swt. While mutton manufacturing shipments fell

Kong during 2013 (down 15% year-on-year, at

1,109 tonnes swt, shoulder exports were down

40% year-on-year, at 2,145 tonnes swt, the volumes

3,861 tonnes swt), Australian lamb exports to Hong

41% year-on-year, to 277 tonnes swt, influenced by

of carcase and breast & flap rose to 2,140 tonnes

Kong during the year lifted 116% year-on-year, to

increased exports to China.

swt (up 386%) and 881 tonnes swt (up 298%),

Although NZ lamb exports to Taiwan during 2013

respectively.

7,539 tonnes swt, with breast & flap (3,690 tonnes



swt) and manufacturing lamb (1,327 tonnes swt)

decreased 40% year-on-year, to 1,659 tonnes swt,

making up the majority of the shipments.

Mutton 

Australian mutton exports to Taiwan during 2014 are

markets of China, the Middle East and the US, are expected to be 14% lower than 2013, at 6,500



Similar to Hong Kong, Australian lamb exports to



NZ mutton exports to Taiwan have decreased

the NZ-Taiwan Economic Cooperation that came

steadily for the last three years, with the 2013

into effect on 1 December 2013, will challenge

annual volume down another 23% year-on-year, to

Australia’s trade to Taiwan in 2014. Tariffs on NZ

5,064 tonnes swt. However, as stated earlier, NZ

With a substantial decline in Australia’s mutton

sheepmeat will gradually decline over the next three

stands to benefit from tariff advantages into the

production in 2014, exports to several markets are

years.

market in 2014.

forecast to decline, including Hong Kong. Australia’s annual shipments during 2014 are anticipated to be significantly lower than the 2013 level, at 1,000 tonnes swt.



Figure 45 Lamb exports to Greater China 60

Figure 46 Mutton exports to Greater China

'000 tonnes swt

80 China

Hong Kong

Taiwan

China

Hong Kong

Taiwan

50

Australian mutton exports to Hong Kong in 2013 registered the highest annual volume on record, at 6,641 tonnes swt, with a significant increase in

60 40 30

40

20

carcase exports, at 4,948 tonnes swt (from 288 tonnes swt in 2012).

20 10 0

0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f

Source: DA, MLA forecasts

30

'000 tonnes swt

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

f = forecast

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA, MLA forecasts

f = forecast

South East Asia Lamb

Mutton







Given the forecast for stronger global competition for Australian lamb during 2014, it is anticipated that volumes to South East Asia (SEA), at 10,000 tonnes swt, will

destinations for Australia within the region. After seeing massive growth in 2013

be down 13% on 2013, as volumes continue to flow to the largest markets –

(primarily due to supply), Australian mutton exports to SEA during 2014 are

primarily the Middle East, China and the US.

expected to be back significantly, at 6,500 tonnes swt.

Australian lamb exports to SEA during 2013 achieved a record annual volume, at



Australian mutton exports to SEA during 2013 surged across the region, led by

11,493 tonnes swt. While the Australian annual volume to Malaysia reached 6,255

traditional markets, Malaysia (at 11,135 tonnes swt – record annual volume) and

tonnes swt in 2013, exports to Singapore fell 16%, to 1,450 tonnes swt. However,

Singapore (up 28% on 2012, to 7,401 tonnes swt). Illustrating the growth was also

trade to Vietnam and Indonesia improved during the year, at 1,760 tonnes swt and

exports to Vietnam, at 3,233 tonnes swt from only 95 tonnes swt in 2012.

933 tonnes swt (both were record annual shipments), respectively.



Similar to lamb, Malaysia and Singapore are both major mutton export



Carcase exports to the region during 2013 climbed 112% year-on-year, to 12,543

Shoulder was the most popular cut shipped to the region in 2013, totalling 4,542

tonnes swt – mainly exported to Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. Following

tonnes swt, the majority of which (89% or 4,028 tonnes swt) was sent to Malaysia.

carcase was manufacturing (4,043 tonnes swt) and leg (3,225 tonnes swt), both of

Indicating the existing “grey channel” through to China, breast & flap exports to

which were mainly exported to Malaysia and Singapore.

Vietnam lifted 83% year-on-year, to 1,254 tonnes swt, accounting for 95% of total breast & flap shipments to the SEA region.

South East Asia Figure 48 Mutton exports to SEA

Figure 47 Lamb exports to SEA 12

*South East Asia = Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam

'000 tonnes swt

25

10

'000 tonnes swt

20

8

15

6 10 4 5

2

0

0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA, MLA forecasts

f = forecast

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f Source: DA, MLA forecasts

f = forecast

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

31

Other Papua New Guinea 

Australian lamb exports to Papua New Guinea

South Africa 

Figure 49 Lamb exports to other markets 30

South Africa is a relatively small importer of

(PNG) reached 12,482 tonnes swt in 2013, back 5%

Australian lamb, with exports in 2013 totalling 1,775

year-on-year, taking 6% of Australia’s market share.

tonnes swt, down 9% from the previous year. The

Almost all of the lamb shipped to PNG in 2013 was

major cut shipped to South Africa last year was

frozen, with the major cuts being breast & flap

breast & flap (1,584 tonnes swt), and all shipments

(8,891 tonnes swt), neck (1,444 tonnes swt) and

were frozen cuts.

'000 tonnes swt

25

Papua New Guinea

South Africa

Korea

Russia

20 15 10 5 0

shoulder (1,115 tonnes swt).





Mutton export volumes eased 4% year-on-year, to

Mutton shipments to PNG have almost halved since

1,198 tonnes swt, which is a big difference from the

five years ago, as prices have become too

highs of 2006, when shipments totalled 19,620

expensive to sustain imports of Australian product.

tonnes swt. Increasing mutton export prices over

In 2013, 2,458 tonnes swt of mutton was shipped to

the last five years have seen Australian mutton

PNG from Australia, up 161% year-on-year,

shipment volumes to South Africa decline

40

following a particularly small export volume the

considerably.

30

previous year. All mutton exports to PNG during 2013 were frozen, and the primary cut was breast & flap (2,012 tonnes swt).

Korea In 2013, Australian lamb exports to Korea increased

Russia 

Despite a 12% year-on-year decline, Australian

main lamb cuts shipped to Korea in 2013 were

lamb exports to Russia have been steadily

shoulder (1,464 tonnes swt), breast & flap (590

increasing over the past decade, reaching 1,453

tonnes swt), and manufacturing (511 tonnes swt).

tonnes swt in 2013. The bulk (86%) of lamb shipments to Russia were frozen cuts, with the major cut being lamb shoulder (1,140 tonnes swt). Mutton shipments lifted 26% on last year, to 3,816

50

'000 tonnes swt Papua New Guinea

South Africa

Korea

Russia

20

0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: DA, MLA forecasts

export volume to Korea in the past 10 years. The



Figure 51 Lamb exports to Africa and the Pacific 35

'000 tonnes swt South Africa

other Africa

Pacific

30

In contrast with most other Asian markets, Korea is

25

only a small importer of Australian mutton, with

20

shipments in 2013 totalling 992 tonnes swt, up 4%

15

year-on-year.

10

tonnes swt, with the main cuts consisting of leg (1,538 tonnes swt), carcase (992 tonnes swt), and shoulder (927 tonnes swt).

32

Figure 50 Mutton exports to other markets

10



6%, reaching 3,175 tonnes swt – the largest yearly



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: DA, MLA forecasts

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

5 0 01

02

03

04

Source: DA, MLA forecasts

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14f

f = forecast

Offal 



With the high levels of slaughter and production



which was 13% higher than the previous year. The

and mutton) offal exports in 2013 rose 19% year-on-

Middle East continued to demand the bulk of

year, with the total exports for the year reaching

Australian sheep livers (9,656 tonnes), although the

30,134 tonnes swt.

volume exported remained relatively steady on the previous year. Liver shipments to South Africa

The Middle East remained the primary destination

increased more than three-fold year-on-year,

for sheep offal throughout 2013, accounting for over

totalling 831 tonnes swt in 2013.

one-third of Australia’s total sheep offal shipments at 11,918 tonnes swt, a 6% increase on the



Liver exports reached 11,050 tonnes swt in 2013,

sustained throughout 2013, Australian sheep (lamb



Sheep heart exports lifted 28% year-on-year in

previous year. Hong Kong was the second largest

2013, to 3,714 tonnes swt, with South Africa taking

market for sheep offal exports in 2013, and a

the majority of shipments for the year (1,062 tonnes

decrease in shipping costs early in the year assisted

swt). Other key markets for heart in 2013 were

a 23% year-on-year rise in shipments, reaching

Papua New Guinea (963 tonnes swt) and China (881

9,788 tonnes swt.

tonnes swt).

South Africa, China and Papua New Guinea were also growing markets for Australian sheep offal in 2013, with exports totalling 1,897 tonnes swt (up 16%), 1,876 tonnes swt (up 90%) and 1,774 tonnes swt (up 59%), respectively.



Figure 52 Australian Offal Exports 35

25

in 2013, as export volumes increased 19% year-on-

20

year, to 11,125 tonnes swt, largely driven by a 23%

15

swt).

Kidney 6.1%

30

Tripe was the primary sheep offal product shipped

lift in tripe shipments to Hong Kong (9,246 tonnes

Figure 53 Australian sheep offal by cut - 2013

'000 tonnes swt

Heart 12.3% Other 3.7%

Tripe 36.9%

10 5 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: DA

Source: DA

Tongues 4.3%

Liver 36.7%

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

33

Live exports – summary 





Australian live sheep exports are forecast to reach

A significant challenge for exporters will be in securing

Figure 54 Australian live sheep exports

2.3 million head in 2014, up 22.3% on the estimated

adequate volumes of suitable sheep, given a

8

1.88 million head for 2013.

combination the record level of sheep turnoff in 2013

7

and the expected strong processor demand in 2014.

Improved market access in key markets in the



Middle East is likely to underpin the forecast rise;

Market access will continually be sought after

million sheep and lambs

6 5 4 3

however, this will likely impact on the recent growth

across all countries, and ongoing negotiations

in other live sheep markets.

regarding ESCAS standards with Middle Eastern

1

markets, in particular, Bahrain, Turkey, Libya and

0

2

97

Saudi Arabia will likely see further increases in live sheep exports in 2014.

Table 4

Australian live sheep exports (head) 2013 e

2009

2010

2011

2012

Kuwait

948,271

1,076,455

956,725

706,644

775,000

Qatar

352,695

321,415

395,728

531,894

535,000

Bahrain

747,827

535,731

354,450

249,741

0

Turkey

0

215,038

352,352

245,147

120

Jordan

% change

2014 f

% change

To: 800,000

3%

1%

550,000

3%

-100%

200,000

-

-100%

250,000

208233%

470,511

265,986

217,067

327,960

320,000

-2%

300,000

-6%

Israel

23,400

42,000

56,600

64,007

60,000

-6%

65,000

8%

Oman

289,223

69,073

41,025

19,892

50,000

151%

40,000

-20%

UAE

130,312

78,748

37,385

33,211

105,000

216%

80,000

-24%

Saudi Arabia

576,147

262,500

24,000

69,000

0

-100%

0

Other

29,223

101,625

23,145

31,120

34,880

12%

15,000

-57%

Total

3,567,609

2,968,571

2,458,477 2,278,616

1,880,000

-17%

2,300,000

22%

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

34

10%

0%

f = forecasts (indicated in italics) e = estimate based on 11 months data

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

99

01

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

03

05

07

09

11

13e

15f

17f

e = estimate, f = forecast

Live exports – markets 

Based on eleven months of live export data in 2013, total live sheep exports are Underpinning this decrease, continuing ESCAS negotiations with Saudi Arabia and

Competition from Somalia is expected to increase steadily in the medium term,

Turkey resulted in large year-on-year declines, while the exclusion of Bahrain from

also impacting demand for Australian sheep.



Exports to Jordan decreased 2% in 2013, at 320,000. However, greater

Kuwait is historically Australia’s largest live sheep export market and expected to

competition for supply is likely to see live exports in 2014 settle at 300,000 head,

remain the case in 2014, with exports forecast to remain steady on 800,000 head.

down 6% year-on-year.

The absence of Bahrain from the Gulf shipping circuit in 2012 and 2013, combined with the recent market adjustments in the Middle East, disrupted trade over the past two years, but it is likely that the trade will recover slightly in 2014.



Although making a slight resurgence in late 2013, Oman is currently experiencing issues with ESCAS, which will likely see numbers drop to 40,000 head in 2014.

the trade also contributed.





estimated to have reached 1.88 million head in 2013, back 17% on 2012.

Qatar is a stable live sheep export market and is estimated to have remained firm



Increased importer/exporter activity in the United Arab Emirates throughout 2013 has seen numbers almost treble total exports in 2012. It is expected that this number will decrease slightly in 2014, with the market stabilising at around 80,000 head.

on 2012, at 530,000 head in 2013. The market is expected to experience growth in 2014, with improved trade conditions expected to minimise market access issues experienced in 2013, this will likely to see the trade reach 550,000 head in 2014.

Figure 56 Live sheep exports by destination

Figure 55 Australian live sheep exports by destination January to November 2013 1,741,939 head

January to November 2012 2,147,047 head Kuwait 30.2%

Jordan 15.3%

million head 8 7

Kuwait 41.7%

Jordan 16.5%

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

UAE

Jordan

Oman

Qatar

Turkey

other

Bahrain

6 5

Bahrain 11.6% Oman 0.5%

Qatar 22.2% Source: ABS

4

UAE 1.2% Other 12.7%

Israel 3.0% Saudi Arabia 3.2%

Oman 2.8%

UAE 5.4%

3

Israel Other 3.1% 1.9%

1

2

0 Qatar 28.5%

95

97

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13e 14f

e = estimate, f = forecast

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

35

Statistical appendices

36

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10 Table 5

Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – continued on next page Total (All Cuts)

Carcase % change

2013 tonnage

Net change

65,349

6 1%

82,002

4 1, 5 3 6

254%

27,026

12 , 7 6 1

115

1%

MALAYSIA

11, 13 5

5,573

DUBAI

9,889

US

8,747

SINGAPORE

7,401

TAIWAN

Leg

Manufacturing

Breast & flap

% change

2013 tonnage

35,345

76%

28,437

8 , 8 15

45%

14 , 9 2 9

1, 9 7 0

15 %

20,777

10 , 0 0 4

93%

24,667

10 4 6 %

6,390

4,651

267%

1, 9 6 6

1, 3 6 1

225%

16 , 2 7 6

7,550

87%

4,878

8 12

20%

2,721

- 15 5

- 5%

2,402

- 16 7

- 7%

11

5

80%

10 0 %

5,457

2,972

12 0 %

791

329

7 1%

3,066

1, 2 7 2

7 1%

1

0

14 7 %

261

3%

5,761

- 117

- 2%

2,765

259

10 %

12 2

51

72%

11

4

67%

1, 2 7 6

17 %

5 , 18 8

- 4 10

- 7%

1, 7 2 6

982

13 2 %

19

19

-

0

0

0%

1, 6 2 7

28%

3,877

6 13

19 %

2,303

654

40%

929

232

33%

1

-4

- 79%

6,649

1, 7 7 5

36%

2 , 14 0

1, 7 0 0

386%

10 5

- 31

- 23%

2 , 14 5

- 1, 4 3 2

- 40%

881

660

298%

HONG KONG

6,641

5,733

632%

4,948

4,660

16 2 0 %

462

242

110 %

30

10

50%

8 11

552

2 14 %

OMAN

5,458

2 , 4 10

79%

4,323

1, 9 7 0

84%

1, 0 8 6

422

63%

0

0

0%

0

0

0%

KUWAIT

4,976

- 782

- 14 %

3 , 18 1

- 1, 0 9 1

- 26%

708

- 93

- 12 %

536

203

6 1%

0

0

0%

UNITED KINGDOM

4,230

951

29%

3,495

1, 0 16

4 1%

3 13

- 10 1

- 24%

2013 tonnage

Net change

World Total

17 2 , 0 4 5

CHINA

57,888

SAUDI ARABIA

Destination

0

Net change % change

2013 tonnage

Net change % change

2013 tonnage

Net change % change

0

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

3 , 8 16

791

26%

992

40

4%

1, 5 3 8

292

23%

19 2

37

24%

JAPAN

3,787

623

20%

10 1

- 14

- 12 %

1, 16 3

267

30%

1, 4 2 7

376

36%

VIETNAM

3,233

3 , 13 8

3 3 0 1%

2,988

2,905

3 5 17 %

6

3

13 1%

0

0

0%

9

9

-

MEXICO

2,895

2,492

6 18 %

868

779

873%

0

0

0%

0

0

0%

0

0

0%

MOROCCO

2,770

2,726

6 19 5 %

2,770

2,762

3 4 5 13 %

0

0

0%

0

0

0%

0

0

0%

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

2,458

1, 5 16

16 1%

15

15

-

55

55

-

87

- 31

- 26%

2 , 0 12

1, 2 5 4

16 5 %

EGYPT

2,422

- 1, 0 15

- 30%

786

17

2%

522

- 429

- 45%

0

0

0%

10 6

- 13 5

- 56%

QATAR

1, 9 6 2

- 565

- 22%

1, 3 0 8

- 468

- 26%

5 18

- 97

- 16 %

16

- 20

- 56%

-6

- 32%

0

0

1, 4 14

604

75%

1, 3 8 8

588

73%

Middle East

4 0 , 9 11

- 5,800

- 12 %

22,497

- 5,802

- 2 1%

8,874

206

2%

3,076

38

1%

19 3

- 89

- 32%

SE Asia

18 , 9 6 9

7,301

63%

9,555

3 , 7 17

64%

3 , 2 19

945

42%

4,043

1, 5 0 3

59%

2

-4

- 66%

JAMAICA

0

13

0

0

Source: Department of Agriculture

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

37

Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10 Table 5

Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – from previous page Shoulder 2013 tonnage

Net change

World Total

11, 8 3 6

CHINA

3,391

SAUDI ARABIA MALAYSIA

Destination

% change

2013 tonnage

Net change

6,487

12 1%

771

2 , 6 19

339%

1, 4 9 0

- 225

- 13 %

1, 4 4 8

769

Bone-in loin

% change

2013 tonnage

- 475

- 38%

3,021

481

- 12 4

- 10 0 %

269

- 16 4

5

- 12

- 70%

922

- 243

113 %

49

48

4558%

61

Backstrap

Net % change change

2013 tonnage

Net change

19 %

1, 8 5 2

- 38%

208

- 2 1%

- 15

Shank

Rack

% change

2013 tonnage

Net change

405

28%

2,392

876

58%

2,303

927

67%

207

35386%

7 18

659

1115 %

495

2 10

74%

4

4

-

72

- 45

- 39%

67

25

59%

- 20%

96

70

276%

78

55

237%

50

38

3 18 %

% change

2013 Net tonnage change

% change

110

38

54%

29

17

13 5 %

25

19

292%

58

23

68%

19 8

- 116

- 37%

627

15 0

32%

1, 4 2 1

659

86%

6

6

-

0

0

0%

3

1

29%

320

-7

- 2%

24

8

47%

SINGAPORE

7

4

14 6 %

0

0

0%

46

34

285%

14 1

80

12 9 %

12

6

98%

16

8

93%

TAIWAN

0

0

- 55%

79

60

307%

371

371

-

10

- 28

- 73%

64

12

24%

673

423

17 0 %

HONG KONG

0

-4

- 92%

-7

- 10 0 %

114

10 3

10 19 %

1

1

-

15 7

115

278%

1

0

43%

7

5

250%

0

0

0%

6

1

32%

0

0

0%

5

5

-

20

3

17 %

13 5

81

14 9 %

2

2

-

16

16

-

1

1

-

19

- 56

- 75%

206

56

38%

3

3

-

39

13

52%

0

0

-

-2

- 10 0 %

10 3 %

0

- 76

- 10 0 %

-5

- 22%

DUBAI US

OMAN KUWAIT

0

UNITED KINGDOM RUSSIAN FEDERATION

927

451

0 95%

0

0

0%

13 3

68

0

19

JAPAN

84

- 12

- 13 %

5

5

2047%

4

4

-

894

-8

- 1%

72

- 23

- 24%

8

6

285%

VIETNAM

14 6

14 5

16 7 8 7 %

22

22

-

0

0

0%

0

0

0%

22

16

278%

22

20

830%

1, 9 6 0

1, 6 4 6

525%

44

44

-

45

30

202%

0

0

0%

0

0

0%

10 1

57

12 9 %

13

12

7 18 %

70

70

-

0

0

0%

467

- 474

- 50%

428

- 78

- 15 %

QATAR

-1

- 10 0 %

0

JAMAICA

-3

- 10 0 %

0

MEXICO MOROCCO PAPUA NEW GUINEA EGYPT

38

Forequarter

0 0

0

0%

0 26

26

-

0

0 0

0 0

0

0%

37

-8

- 18 %

0

0 0%

0

3

0

- 14 %

13

13

-

113

84

283%

0

0

0%

17

17

-

0

0

0

0

Middle East

2,021

10 0

5%

508

- 464

- 48%

1, 5 9 4

- 111

- 7%

10 4

14

15 %

407

- 13 3

- 25%

941

246

35%

SE Asia

1, 4 5 9

774

113 %

49

48

4558%

119

27

30%

237

15 0

17 2 %

90

60

208%

86

49

13 2 %

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10 Table 6

Australian lamb exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – continued on next page Total (All Cuts)

Breast & flap

Leg

Shoulder

2013 tonnage

Net change

% change

2013 tonnage

Net change

% change

2013 tonnage

World Total

2 13 , 7 14

10 , 0 14

34%

3 9 , 15 6

1, 6 0 6

4%

3 0 , 18 0

624

2%

30,541

3,929

15 %

15 , 4 8 9

835

6%

CHINA

39,535

2 , 5 13

7%

20,331

1, 0 2 4

5%

496

435

7 10 %

6 , 14 3

202

3%

5,885

- 35

- 1%

US

3 9 , 18 0

10 , 0 2 5

3 0 1%

4

-8

- 67%

12 , 2 7 3

1, 4 2 5

13 %

4,037

- 2 , 10 6

- 34%

685

- 244

- 26%

BAHRAIN

13 , 3 5 1

2,562

24%

0

0

0%

4

-4

- 47%

25

- 17 5

- 88%

15

15

-

DUBAI

13 , 2 2 1

- 2 18

- 2%

2

0

20%

2,396

291

14 %

1, 7 6 4

3 12

2 1%

2

-5

- 7 1%

JORDAN

12 , 7 4 1

- 620

- 5%

0

-2

- 10 0 %

646

- 388

- 37%

1, 4 9 2

- 352

- 19 %

252

10 9

76%

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

12 , 4 8 2

10 8

1%

8,891

- 1, 3 9 4 . 8 8

- 14 %

367

29

9%

1, 115

348

45%

351

110

46%

Destination

Net change % change

2013 tonnage

Manufacturing

Net change % change

2013 tonnage

Net change % change

UNITED KINGDOM

9 , 12 4

10

0%

1

1

-

4 , 4 12

- 496

- 10 %

15

- 20

- 57%

1, 6 6 5

16 5

11%

JAPAN

7,697

4,048

116 %

10

0

- 4%

540

115

27%

3,728

549

17 %

2,450

- 558

- 19 %

HONG KONG

7,539

1, 2 3 9

25%

3,690

2,030

12 2 %

18 7

77

70%

3 16

19 6

16 4 %

1, 3 2 7

476

56%

MALAYSIA

6,255

86

1%

26

3

13 %

549

201

58%

4,028

985

32%

110

52

9 1%

QATAR

6 , 0 19

878

19 %

0

0

0%

274

6

2%

93

- 10

- 10 %

16

16

-

CANADA

5,563

1, 17 6

40%

0

0

0%

2,240

455

25%

464

12 6

37%

13 5

25

23%

KUWAIT

4 , 15 0

- 19 1

- 5%

0

0

0%

53

-6

- 11%

82

- 46

- 36%

330

44

15 %

SAUDI ARABIA

3,783

16 7

6%

1

-6

- 80%

1, 3 4 8

- 327

- 20%

393

17

4%

86

1

1%

SOUTH KOREA

3 , 17 5

- 4 , 5 17

- 62%

590

- 39

- 6%

81

-9

- 10 %

1, 4 6 4

245

20%

5 11

-3

- 1%

IRAN

2,755

- 43

- 2%

3 1. 7

- 309

- 9 1%

64

- 606

- 9 1%

- 539

- 10 0 %

0

0

0%

ABU DHABI

2,503

226

14 %

0

0

0%

16 3

25

18 %

119

4

4%

0

0

0%

TAIWAN

1, 8 3 4

- 17 6

- 9%

13 6

- 21

- 13 %

3

- 42

- 92%

277

- 19 2

- 4 1%

1, 10 9

594

115 %

SOUTH AFRICA

1, 7 7 5

844

92%

1, 5 8 4

- 13 1

- 8%

5

- 23

- 8 1%

- 30

- 10 0 %

10 0

- 20

- 17 %

VIETNAM

1, 7 6 0

- 84

- 5%

1, 2 5 4

568

83%

87

14

19 %

93

83

860%

69

62

953%

59,777

7,965

15 %

35

- 398

- 92%

5 , 10 4

- 1, 115

- 18 %

4,463

- 1, 0 2 1

- 19 %

701

17 5

33%

9,734

993

11%

65

- 19

- 23%

1, 6 6 0

13 7

9%

4,449

946

27%

205

23

13 %

Middle East SE Asia

Source: Department of Agriculture

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

39

Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10 Table 6

Australian lamb exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – from previous page Carcase

Forequarter

2013 tonnage

Net change

% change

2013 tonnage

Net change

% change

2013 tonnage

60,584

20,426

5 1%

9,663

- 436

- 4%

2,347

- 1, 8 6 7

CHINA

2,589

2,508

3094%

75

- 27

- 27%

75

US

10 , 0 9 4

4,571

83%

4 , 0 14

- 4 16

- 9%

BAHRAIN

13 , 3 0 1

10 , 19 2

328%

6

-2

- 26%

DUBAI

7,705

1, 8 2 2

3 1%

741

44

JORDAN

8,645

2 , 4 12

39%

73

0

0

- 44%

12

Destination World Total

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Shortloin

Net % change change

Shank

Neck

2013 tonnage

Net change

% change

2013 tonnage

Net change

% change

- 44%

5,597

- 454

- 7%

9,720

440

5%

75

-

4,471

374

9%

18 2

17 9

5 18 3 %

-5

- 10 0 %

5

0

7%

4 , 10 9

29

1%

0

0

0%

0

0

- 42%

6%

57

1

2%

68

1

1%

338

75

29%

5

- 19

- 79%

25

54%

1, 5 4 8

- 1, 7 0 1

- 52%

1

-1

- 5 1%

74

69

16 6 4 %

10

- 389

- 98%

4

57%

19

- 42

- 69%

57

24

74%

44

28

16 7 %

1, 4 4 4

14 2

11%

0

2013 Net tonnage change 5,978

484

2,779

638

% change 9%

0 30%

0

0

0

- 10 0 %

88

- 18

- 17 %

0

0

0%

1

1

-

2,368

350

17 %

0

JAPAN

13 7

- 23

- 14 %

633

- 49

- 7%

28

- 11

- 28%

42

29

224%

33

0

1%

-9

- 10 0 %

HONG KONG

845

840

18 7 5 8 %

406

35

9%

0

0

-

20

3

2 1%

57

10

22%

653

4 10

16 9 %

MALAYSIA

724

- 82

- 10 %

19 4

- 53

- 22%

13

7

10 5 %

30

9

42%

478

111

30%

37

23

17 2 %

5,386

85

2%

18 3

2

1%

8

-4

- 3 1%

0

-1

- 94%

8

-6

- 43%

0

CANADA

73

-8

- 10 %

723

34

5%

0

0

0%

1, 2 5 4

15 5

14 %

574

76

15 %

- 12

KUWAIT

3,490

1, 14 5

49%

117

59

10 3 %

22

- 58

- 72%

1

0

38%

9

8

12 3 1%

SAUDI ARABIA

1, 0 3 5

266

35%

330

-4

- 1%

46

- 67

- 59%

5

1

20%

97

33

53%

SOUTH KOREA

3

-1

- 28%

12 1

- 10

- 7%

15

14

14 0 1%

2

-5

- 72%

90

- 74

- 45%

IRAN

2,580

- 2 , 4 19

- 48%

0

0

0%

42

42

-

0

- 261

- 10 0 %

ABU DHABI

2 , 18 8

- 95

- 4%

16

9

119 %

12

11

12 2 1%

0

2

0

29%

65

65

14 7 2 8 3 %

39

- 11

- 23%

0

0

0%

0

-2

- 98%

111

- 12 9

- 54%

32

- 47

- 60%

4

- 24

- 87%

0

0

0%

0

0

0%

78

78

-

- 17

- 10 0 %

4

-8

- 65%

118

96

439%

87

14

18 %

0

-1

- 90%

23

2

7%

15

2

12 %

7

0

3%

44,430

13 , 3 6 6

43%

1, 7 13

220

15 %

1, 9 2 6

- 2 , 0 14

- 5 1%

78

2

2%

579

- 65

- 10 %

73

- 595

- 89%

1, 2 0 9

- 72

- 6%

867

- 65

- 7%

21

12

15 1%

19 9

- 28

- 12 %

759

72

10 %

82

52

17 2 %

UNITED KINGDOM

QATAR

TAIWAN SOUTH AFRICA VIETNAM Middle East SE Asia

40

Rack

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

44

- 10 0 %

28

18 2 %

- 95

- 10 0 %

18

6

46%

13

- 50

- 80%

0

Appendix 3 – Live sheep exports Table 6

Calendar year live sheep exports

Country

2004

Argentina Bahrain Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Chile China Indonesia Israel Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Malaysia Marshall Islands Mauritius Mexico New Zealand Norfolk Island Oman Philippines Qatar Russia Saudi Arabia Singapore South Africa Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UAE Uruguay USA Vietnam

7,014 490,210

TOTAL VOLUME TOTAL VALUE Source: ABS

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

521,455

556,843

2 561,522

66 716,040

11 747,827

135

28

13

974

2,879

1,792 3,800 5,000

156

28 4 62 35,000

23,400 68 470,511

42,000 9 265,986

56,600

64,007

54,164

217,067

327,960

287,792

948,271

1,076,455

956,642

706,644

726,809

20,588

75,026 19,000

15,903

18,864

24,385

150

70

1,300

32,189 930,343 1,259,904 20,711 21,167

67 4 289,170 137,406 67 8,948

2011

2012

498,731 37,000 4

5 344,450 10,000 10 11

26 249,741

2013*

884,886 219 890,545

267,829

36,834 276 383,943

962,163

930,178

956,276

19,705

16,675

21,452

81 49

2,056 23

414 6

358,972 37 179,885

320,030 80 191,669

1,072,089 15,530

1,193,635 9,292

539,556 876 191,850 66 1,032,395 6,006

25,076 26,128 140 390

5

38 11

12

19,840 245 684,940

500

2010

3,517

11 1 741,106 231 269,116

10

12

17

58

289,223 891 352,695

69,073 18 321,415

41,025 260 395,752

19,892 6,877 531,894

873,937 8,761

576,147 7,637

262,500 7,401

24,000 6,399

69,000 3,933 3

130,312 6

215,038 78,747 4 2

352,352 37,385

245,147 33,211 10

13 1 48,476 497,241

4,615

31 57 270 196,095

11 230,775

209,373 1

15

185,754 19 10

175,629 43

120 94,795 4 2

30 3,397,140

4,184,920

4,167,034

3,773,029

4,214,989

3,567,609

2,968,571

2,457,948

2,278,616

1,741,939

$228,959,769

$280,582,589

$293,445,862

$262,055,133

$321,157,801

$322,960,587

$322,527,205

$328,103,448

$279,748,762

$155,183,732

*=January to November

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

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Sources and acknowledgements This document was produced and compiled by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), with the help of industry participants in the annual cattle projections workshop. Baseline forecasts were also provided by the Centre for International Economics’ Global Meat Industries (GMI) model. The sources listed below are also duly acknowledged for the provision of statistical, analytical and forecast information used in this document.

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Infoscan NZ International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) Millward Brown Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) Nielsen Homescan Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Roy Morgan Beef + Lamb New Zealand United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Centre for International Economics (CIE) Weeks Consulting Services Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) World Bank Department of Agriculture (DA), Australia Eurostat

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MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Acronyms ABARES



Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource

IMF



International Monetary Fund

Economics and Sciences

lb



Pounds weight

ABS



Australian Bureau of Statistics

lwt



Liveweight

AWPFC



Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee

MLA



Meat & Livestock Australia

CIE



Centre for International Economics

NLRS



National Livestock Reporting Service (Meat & Livestock Australia)

CIS



Commonwealth of Independent States

NZ



New Zealand

cwt



Carcase weight

PNG



Papua New Guinea

DA



Department of Agriculture – Australia

swt



Shipped weight

EMI



Eastern Market Indicator (wool price)

UAE



United Arab Emirates

EU



European Union

UK



United Kingdom

FAO



Food and Agriculture Organisation

US



United States

FOB



Free on board ship (export price loaded on ship before departure)

USDA



United States Department of Agriculture

FTA



Free Trade Agreement

MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

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Notes

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MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014

Meat & Livestock Australia Level 1, 40 Mount St North Sydney NSW 2060 Phone: 02 9463 9333 Fax: 02 9463 9393 Free call: 1800 023 100 (Australia only) Email: [email protected] www.mla.com.au