Employment Projections to 2024 Oregon Government Finance Officers Association

Employment Projections to 2024 Oregon Government Finance Officers Association The overall number of jobs in Oregon is expected to grow by 14 percent...
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Employment Projections to 2024 Oregon Government Finance Officers Association

The overall number of jobs in Oregon is expected to grow by 14 percent from 2014 to 2024. Oregon to Add 260,000 Jobs by 2024 2,000,000

244,700 payroll jobs due to economic growth (14%)

Nonfarm payroll

1,500,000

Private payroll

15,500 more in selfemployment (15%) 1,000,000

Private sector growing faster (16%) 500,000

Government payroll

Government growing slower (4%)

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Oregon’s projected growth rate (14%) is more than twice the nation’s (6.5%). Projected Industry Job Growth for the U.S. and Oregon, 2014-2024 Total Construction Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Private educational services Other services Manufacturing Wholesale trade

National Projections Oregon Projections

Transportation and warehousing Retail trade Financial activities

Information Mining and logging State and local government Utilities Federal government -15%

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All major private sectors are expected to add jobs, with the most job gains occurring in the largest industries. All Private Industries Expected to Add Jobs by 2024 Health care and social assistance

Health care should add the most jobs, followed closely by professional and business services.

Professional and business services Trade, transportation, and utilities Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Construction Local government Financial activities

Federal government is the only major industry projected to decline.

Other services Natural resources and mining Private educational services State government Information

Federal government -10,000

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The three fastest-growing industries will account for nearly half (45%) of all job growth over the decade. Three Oregon Industries Expect at Least 20 Percent Growth by 2024

Fast construction growth due to high demand and low inventory. Health care’s pace of growth driven by demographics.

Total payroll employment

Construction Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Private educational services Other services Manufacturing Trade, transportation, and utilities

Slowest-growing industries include information (6%) and all components of government.

Natural resources and mining Financial activities Information

Local government State government Federal government -5%

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Despite its fast growth, construction is not expected to return to its all-time peak employment by 2024. Private Industries Not Reaching Peak Employment by 2024 250,000

Neither will the manufacturing, financial activities, or information sectors.

200,000

Manufacturing

150,000

Financial Activities

100,000

Construction 50,000

Information

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Consistent growth to continue in health care and social assistance. Oregon Health Care and Social Assistance Jobs, Historical and Projected 1990-2024 300,000

2016-2024 Projected 2024: Oregon Employment Department 250,000

200,000

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2016-2023: Office of Economic Analysis Forecast 100,000

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At a more detailed level, fast-growth industries include those in health care, beverage manufacturing, and professional services. Oregon's Fastest-Growing Industry Groups, 2014-2024 At Least 1,000 Jobs in 2014 Offices of other health practitioners Beverage manufacturing Apparel, piece goods, and notions merchant wholesalers Computer systems design and related services

Offices of mental health practitioners (except physicians) Home health care services Electronic and precision equipment repair and maintenance Continuing care retirement communities and assisted living Building finishing contractors Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 0%

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Information and print or paper-related industries are expected to be among those with the largest job declines by 2024. Oregon Industry Groups with Fastest Job Declines, 2014-2024 At Least 1,000 Jobs in 2014 -360 jobs

Consumer goods rental -870

Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers

-460

Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills

-440

Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing -220

Book, periodical, and music stores Paper and paper product merchant wholesalers

-200

Radio and television broadcasting

-350

Printing and related support activities

-530

-190

Converted paper product mfg Postal service

-540 -30%

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Occupational projections show diverse opportunities at all levels of educational attainment. Oregon Occupations with the Most Projected Job Openings by Typical Entry-Level Education

2014

2024

Change

Total Growth and Replacement Openings

High school diploma or equivalent, or less Retail Salespersons Waiters and Waitresses Cashiers Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Cooks, Restaurant

63,827 28,303 38,188 32,775 22,006

73,621 34,351 40,623 40,050 27,800

9,794 6,048 2,435 7,275 5,794

31,917 19,666 18,683 17,867 11,616

Postsecondary training (non-degree) or Associate's degree Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Nursing Assistants Medical Assistants Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics Computer User Support Specialists

23,686 12,102 9,692 8,028 7,963

26,555 14,102 12,080 8,912 9,505

2,869 2,000 2,388 884 1,542

6,898 4,733 4,408 3,033 2,567

Bachelor's degree or higher Registered Nurses General and Operations Managers Accountants and Auditors Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education Software Developers, Applications

33,421 27,869 12,623 10,804 7,662

38,377 32,029 15,328 11,777 9,844

4,956 4,160 2,705 973 2,182

12,841 11,214 6,074 3,362 3,277

A majority (53%) of projected openings will require education beyond high school to be competitive for the job. Total Projected Openings by Competitive Education

High school diploma or equivalent 47%

Doctoral or professional degree 3%

Master's degree 7%

Bachelor's degree 18%

Associate's degree 7%

Postsecondary training (non-degree) 18%

How will recreational marijuana legalization affect long-term growth in related industries? NAICS

Industry Group

Related Activity

1114

Other food crops grown under cover

Growing marijuana primarily under cover/greenhouse

1119

All other crop farming

Growing marijuana crops

3118

Commercial bakeries

Making edibles (brownies, breads, etc.)

3251

All other basic organic chemical manufacturing

Cannibis oil manufacturing

4245

Other farm product raw material merchant wholesalers

Whole leaf marijuana wholesale

4249

Other miscellaneous nondurable goods merchant wholesalers

Marijuana and marijuana products wholesale

4539

All other miscellaneous store retailers (except tobacco)

Retail-only marijuana stores (non-medical)

8139

Business, professional, labor, political, and similar organizations

Medical marijuana dispensaries

Related activities span across several industries; some impacted more than others.

Recreational sales seem to already be outperforming expectations…before they’ve even become fully operational. Historical and Projected Employment in Industries with Marijuana-Related Jobs 2010-2024 40,000

38,000

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Bend and Portland are expected to see the fastest job growth. Regional Employment Projections 2014-2024

Most metro areas projected to have faster job growth than non-metro areas. Central Oregon should see fastest growth in construction, education, and health care.

Job Growth (%) 15% or more 10% to 14% 5% to 9% Less than 5%

Portland tri-county job growth led by software publishing, professional and technical services, corporate offices, and construction. All other areas are projected to grow at a slower pace than Oregon statewide.

Gail Krumenauer Senior Economic Analyst [email protected] (503) 947-1268