Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 20, 2017

Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Indonesia MSCI Stock Price Index Earnings Revenues & Margins Valuation Revenue & Earnings Growth

January 20, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI

1 2 3 4 5

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Stock Price Index Figure 1. 7250 6250 5250

INDONESIA MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX

1/20

(ratio scale)

7250 6250 5250

4250

4250

3250

3250

2250

2250

1250

1250

yardeni.com

250

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 200-day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.

Figure 2. 7600 6100

7600

INDONESIA MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION

4600

Indonesia MSCI Index 01/20/17

3100

Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 01/12/17

x15 x10

6100 4600 3100

x5 1600

1600

yardeni.com

100

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 1 / January 20, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI

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Earnings Figure 3. 500 450

500

16

INDONESIA MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE

17

(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)

18

450 1/12

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates

50

50

Forward earnings* 0

0 yardeni.com

-50

-50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 4. 20

20

INDONESIA MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

10

10

0

0 Dec

-10

-10

-20

-20 NERI Oct -2.43 Nov -4.43 Dec -5.47

-30

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-30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 2 / January 20, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI

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Revenues & Margins Figure 5. 3050 2750

3050

INDONESIA MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)

16

2750

18

17

1/12

2450

2450

2150

2150

1850

1850

1550

1550

1250

1250

Consensus Forecasts

950

950

Annual estimates Forward revenues* yardeni.com

650 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

650

2018

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 6. 22

22

INDONESIA MSCI PROFIT MARGIN

(using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)

Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates 20

20

Forward profit margin* (16.4)

18

18 17 18 1/12

16

16

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14 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

14

2018

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 3 / January 20, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI

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Valuation Figure 7. 40

40

INDONESIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

35

35

Forward P/E (15.4)

30

30

25

25

20

20

1/12

15

15

10

10

5

5 yardeni.com

0

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 8. 2.00

2.00

INDONESIA MSCI RELATIVE VALUATION*

1.75

1.50

1.75

Relative P/E (0.97)

1.50

1.25

1.25

1.00

1/12

1.00

.75

.75

.50

.50

.25

.25 yardeni.com

.00

.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 4 / January 20, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI

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Revenue & Earnings Growth Figure 9. 70

70

INDONESIA MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent)

STEG capped at 60%

60

60

50

50

LTEG* (12.2) STEG* (15.9)

40

40

STRG* (10.7)

30

30

20

20 1/12

10

10

0

0 yardeni.com

-10

-10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * STEG: 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. STRG: 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected revenue growth. LTEG: 5-year consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 5 / January 20, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI

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