Country Briefing: Indonesia Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 19, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Real GDP Industrial Production Merchandise Trade Consumer Inflation Financials

January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

3-4 5 6 7 8-9 10

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Real GDP Figure 1. 10 9

10

INDONESIA: REAL GDP (yearly percent change)

9

Total

8

8

7

7

6

6 Q3

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

15

15

Domestic Demand 10

10

5

5

Q3

0

0

-5

-5 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

7

7

Household Consumption

6

6 Q3

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

20

20

Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation

16

16

12

12

8

8 Q3

4

4

0

0 yardeni.com

-4 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Biro Pusat Statistik.

2005

Page 3 / January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-4

2018

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Real GDP Figure 2. 30

30

INDONESIA: REAL GDP

Government Consumption

(yearly percent change) 20

20

10

10

0

0 Q3

-10

-10 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

80

Net Exports of Goods & Services (trillions of 2000 rupiah, sa)

60 40

Q3 20 0 -20 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

40

40

Exports of Goods & Services

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 Q3

-10

-10

-20

-20 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

75

75

Imports of Goods & Services

50

50

25

25

0

0

Q3

-25

-25 yardeni.com

-50 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Biro Pusat Statistik.

2005

Page 4 / January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-50

2018

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Industrial Production Figure 3. 135

125

135

INDONESIA: MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION LARGE & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES (2010=100, sa)

Nov

125

115

115

105

105

95

95

85

85

75

75

yardeni.com

65 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

65

2018

Source: Biro Pusat Statistik.

Figure 4. 24 21

24

INDONESIA: MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION LARGE & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES

21

(yearly percent change)

18

18

15

15

12

12

9

9

6

6

3

3

0

0 Nov

-3

-3

-6

-6

-9

-9 yardeni.com

-12 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-12

2018

Source: Biro Pusat Statistik.

Page 5 / January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Merchandise Trade Figure 5. 20

20

INDONESIA: EXPORTS & IMPORTS (bilions of US dollars, nsa)

15

15 Dec

Exports Imports

10

10

5

5

yardeni.com

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

0

2018

Source: Biro Pusat Statistik.

Figure 6. 120

120

INDONESIA: EXPORTS & IMPORTS (bilions of US dollars, nsa)

100

100

Exports Imports

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

Dec

0

0

-20

-20

-40

-40 yardeni.com

-60 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-60

2018

Source: Biro Pusat Statistik.

Page 6 / January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Consumer Figure 7. 130

130

INDONESIA: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (100+=increase, sa)

120

120 Dec

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60 yardeni.com

50 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

50

2018

Source: Bank Indonesia.

Figure 8. 220 210

220

INDONESIA: REAL RETAIL SALES

Dec

(2010=100, sa)

210

200

200

190

190

180

180

170

170

160

160

150

150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60 yardeni.com

50 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

50

2018

Source: Bank Indonesia.

Page 7 / January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Inflation Figure 9. 21 18

21

INDONESIA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change)

18

15

15

12

12

9

9

6

6 Dec

3

3

0

0

-3

-3 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10 Dec

Foodstuff

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

20

20

Housing, Water, Electricity Gas and Fuel

15

15

10

10

5

5 Dec

0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

16

16

14

14

Clothing

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

Dec

2

2

0

0

-2

-2 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Biro Pusat Statistik.

2004

Page 8 / January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Inflation Figure 10. 50 40

50

INDONESIA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change)

40

30

30

Health

20

20

10

10 Dec 0

0 -10

-10

-20

-20 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

15

15

Education, Recreation & Sport

10

10

5

5 Dec

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

50

50

40

40

Transportation & Communication

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

Dec

-10

-10 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Biro Pusat Statistik.

Page 9 / January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Financials Figure 11. 5.6

5.6

INDONESIA: BANK RATE

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.0

4.8

4.8 Jan

4.6

yardeni.com 2000

2001

4.6 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Bank of Indonesia and Haver Analytics.

Figure 12. 6000

6000

INDONESIA: STOCK PRICE INDEX

5500

5500 1/18

5000

5000

Jakarta Composite (8/10/82=100)

4500

4500

4000

4000

3500

3500

3000

3000

2500

2500

2000

2000

1500

1500

1000

1000

500

500 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 10 / January 19, 2017 / Indonesia

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

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