Gjensidige Insurance Group 3rd quarter results 2016
26 October 2016
A strong third quarter
• Pre-tax profit NOK 1,516m • Underwriting result NOK 712m • Combined ratio 87.5%, (85.4% adjusted for one-off) • 4.3% premium growth • Good underlying frequency claims development • Level of run-off and large losses as expected • Good cost control – cost ratio 17.3% (15.2% adjusted
Combined ratio % 80.1 14.5
87.5 17.3
65.6
70.2
Q3 2015
Q3 2016
Loss ratio
for one-off)
• Solid contributions from bank and pension operations with pre-tax profit of NOK 178m
Cost ratio
Pre-tax profit NOK m
1 516 952
• Financial result NOK 700m, investment return 1.3% • 21.7% return on equity*
700 1 091 -150 Q3 2015
UW-result * Annualised, YTD
712 Q3 2016
Financial result
Q3 2016 including one-off restructuring cost NOK 120m
Other 2
• Successful NOK 1.0bn RT1 issue
Dividend policy
• Sale SR-Bank shares with ~NOK 300m
• High and stable dividends
• Special dividend NOK 4.00 per share corresponding to a total NOK 2bn -
Excess capital distribution
-
Adopted based on existing Board authorisation
-
Ex-date: 1 November 2016
• Pay-out ratio over time of at least 70% of profit after tax • Expected future capital need taken into account when determining the size of the dividend
• Excess capital above the targeted capitalisation will be paid out over time
Special
capital effect
Regular
Further optimising of capital structure - special dividend NOK 4.00 per share
3
Operational strategic priorities
Digital customer experiences
Business intelligence and analytics
Koncernen har væ no teret på Oslo ret 2010. I Børs siden snart ans at ildsjæ 200 år har vi l e, som jder for arbe at liv, helb sikre kunde rnes red og væ rdie r.
Gjensidige
5 4 3 2 1 1
Organisational capabilities
Forsikring
Vi er circa arbejde 3.100 medre, heraf Danma 495 i rk, skade forsikog vi tilbyder ring i Norg Danma e, rk, Baltikum. Sverige og
2
3
4
5
The best online customer experiences in the Nordic general insurance market
Preparing for a strong position in a growing market for health and personal insurance
Analytical use of data to ensure attractive value propositions and profitable operations
Business-driven development of people and organisation 4
Set to ensure future competitiveness
• Organisational changes to strengthen analytical capacity, digital customer offerings, marketing and CRM • Changes in Group management
Targets unchanged Return on equity Combined ratio Cost ratio Dividends
>15% 86-89%* ~15% Nominal high and stable (>70%)
• Cost efficiency measures to create room for strategic investments - Reduction 190 FTEs in staff and support functions
Becoming the most customer-oriented general insurer in the Nordic region
*Combined ratio target on an undiscounted basis, assuming ~ 4 pp run-off gains next 2-4 years and normalised large losses impact. Beyond the next 2-4 years, the target is 90-93 given 0 pp run-off.
5
Financial performance
Strong year-to-date and third quarter results
NOK m
Q3 2016
Q3 2015
YTD 2016
YTD 2015
Private
536
687
1 647
1 569
Commercial
401
419
1 249
1 038
Nordic
60
140
227
443
Baltics
(21)
(17)
(63)
(34)
(196)
(77)
118
(229)
Corporate Centre/reinsurance
(67)
(61)
(144)
(209)
Underwriting result
712
1 091
3 034
2 578
Pension and savings
39
19
97
61
Retail Bank
139
57
334
221
Financial result from the investment portfolio
700
(150)
1 594
882
Amortisation and impairment losses of excess value
(64)
(53)
(194)
(127)
Other items
(11)
(13)
(30)
(35)
1 516
952
4 834
3 579
Corporate Centre/costs related to owner
Profit/(loss) before tax expenses
7
Underwriting result development affected by one-offs - frequency claims level stable and benign Development in underwriting result Q3 2015 – Q3 2016
R12M combined ratio development
NOK m 1 091
100 95
(120) (70) (89)
Target corridor adjusted for run-off gains next 2-4 years
90
712 85
80
75
UW Q3 2015
On-off One-off Change Underlying model restructuring large losses change change cost Q316 and run-off actuarial provision Q315
UW Q3 2016
Q4 10
Q2 11
Q4 11
Q2 12
R12M reported
Q4 12
Q2 13
Q4 13
Q2 14
Q4 14
R12M adjusted*
Q2 15
Q4 15
Q2 16
Target corridor**
*Adjusted for one-offs, assumes 0 run-off until Q315 and NOK800m per year from and including Q315, and normalised large losses. **Long-term target corridor assumes 0 run-off and and normalised large losses
8
Underlying change in loss ratio 1.6 percentage points - partly due to short period of heavy rains in Norway Loss ratio development Q3 2015 – Q3 2016
Key drivers – underlying loss ratio development
%
• Heavy rains in Norway affecting property products 65.6
0.9
6557.9 %
Q3 2015
0.3
6648.7 %
1.8
1.6
70.2
• Overall stable and benign frequency claims level for main portfolios and products
6679.0 %
Change in Change in Acturarial Underlying large losses run off model change change Q315
• Random quarterly variations
Q3 2016
-
Nordic segment adversely affected by Vardia, change in provision modelling for product insurance and higher loss ratio on commercial property
-
Satisfactory profitability improvement in Sweden (excluding Vardia) and the Baltics
9
Premium growth of 4.3 per cent
Premium development Q2 2015 – Q2 2016
Key drivers - premium development
NOK m
• Private +1.3% 121 192
5 471
28
(130)
5 705
23
• Commercial +1.3% • Nordic +14.0% driven by acquisitions and currency -
Underlying +2.0%
• Baltics +86.4% driven by PZU Lietuva -
Underlying +4.9%
* CC = corporate centre
Q3 2016
CC*
Baltics
Nordic
Commercial
Private
Q3 2015
• Change in CC is mainly driven by reinsurance in Vardia
10
Good cost control - increase driven by acquisitions and one-off restructuring cost Cost development Q3 2015 – Q3 2016
Key drivers - cost development
NOK m
• Nordic segment: Increase due to Vardia 109
792
12
(9)
31
989
54
• Baltics segment: Increase due to higher expense run-rate in PZU Lietuva -
Synergies are being realised and expense base decreasing
• CC: One-off restructuring cost NOK 120m • Cost ratio 14.1% adjusted for one-off and excluding the Baltics
* CC = corporate centre
Reported cost ratio 15.2% adjusted for one-off
Q3 2016
CC
Baltics
Nordic
Commercial
Private
Q3 2015
-
11
Normal level of large losses
Large losses – reported vs expected
Large losses per segment
NOK m
NOK m 321
318
181
283
156
259
90 74 43 24 14 0 Q3 2015
Q3 2016
Reported
Expected
Private
Commercial
Nordic
Q3 2015
0
0
Baltics
CC
Q3 2016
* Large losses: Losses > NOK 10m. Weather related large losses are included. Large losses in excess of NOK 30.0m are charged to the Corporate Centre while up to NOK 30m per claim is charged to the segment in which the large loss occurred. The Baltics segment has, as a main rule, a retention level of EUR 0.5m
12
Impact of 4.1 percentage points from run-off gains
Run-off net
Run-off net per segment
NOK m
NOK m 128 709
93 75
494 64
53 33 241
19
234
3
8
-3 Private YTD 2015 * CC = corporate center
YTD 2016
Q3 2015
Q3 2016
Commercial
Nordic
Q3 2015
Baltics
CC*
Q3 2016 13
Investment return of 1.3 per cent
Investment return (%)
Portfolio mix as at 30.09.2016
2.0 % 1.0 %
1%
6% 3% 11% 2% 5%
0.0 % Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
-1.0 %
10% 32%
-2.0 %
8% Match portfolio
Free portfolio
Total Portfolio
Investment return, free portfolio Q3 2016
22%
%
Fixed income
1.7
Current equities
5.8
PE funds
1.6
Property
1.5
Total free portfolio
2.0
Match portfolio NOK 36.3bn
Free portfolio NOK 19.6bn
Money market Bonds at amortised cost Current bonds Money market Other bonds Convertible bonds Current equities PE funds Property Other 14
Strong capital position - continued capital discipline Capital discipline
Strong capital position Capital available (NOK bn)
Solvency margin adjusted for special dividend: 104%
179%
141%
2.0
2.0
25 20 15
2.0 0.6
• Capital efficiency improved further through Tier 1 debt issuance and dividend decision • S&P strategic buffer NOK 0.9bn •
5.7
8.9
Including the capital effect of ~NOK 300m from sale of SR-bank shares in October (margin 106%)
• Capital buffers within risk appetite
10 14.4 5
14.0
11.3
0 S&P rating model (GI) Capital requirement
Partial Internal Model (Group)
-
Adjusted for adopted special dividend of NOK 2.0bn
-
Solvency margins 183% (PIM) and 144% (SF) when including guarantee scheme
Standard Formula (Group)
Capital > Capital requirement
Special dividend
Figures as at 30.09.2016. The Solvency II regulation is principle based. Calculations are based on Gjensidige’s understanding of the Solvency II regulation and how it is implemented in Norway, including the current view of the Norwegian FSA on the guarantee provision. If the Guarantee provision had been treated as solvency capital, the Group’s PIM and SF solvency margins would be 183% and 144%, respectively. The figures related to the S&P rating model are based on Gjensidige’s interpretations of the model. Total comprehensive income is included in the calculations, minus a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit.
15
Concluding remarks
Key takeaways
• Strong competitive position and good profitability • Continued cost discipline • Strong capital position
Targets Return on equity Combined ratio Cost ratio Dividends
>15% 86-89%* ~15% Nominal high and stable (>70%)
Becoming the most customer-oriented general insurer in the Nordic region
* Combined ratio target on an undiscounted basis, assuming ~4 pp run-off gains next 2-4 years and normalised large losses impact. Beyond the next 2-4 years, the target is 90-93 given 0 pp run-off.
16
Roadshows and conferences post Q3 2016 results
Date
Location
Participants
Event
Arranged by
26 October 2016
Oslo
CEO Helge Leiro Baastad CFO Jostein Amdal
Interim presentation
Gjensidige
26 October 2016
Oslo
CEO Helge Leiro Baastad CFO Jostein Amdal Head of IR Janne Flessum
Group lunch Roadshow
Sparebank 1
27 October 2016
London
CEO Helge Leiro Baastad CFO Jostein Amdal Head of IR Janne Flessum
Roadshow
Arctic Securities
2 November 2016
Copenhagen
CFO Jostein Amdal IRO Katharina Hesbø
Roadshow
ABG Sundal Collier
9-10 November 2016
Zürich and Geneve
CFO Jostein Amdal IRO Katharina Hesbø
Roadshow
Danske Bank
24 November 2016
Frankfurt
CEO Helge Leiro Baastad Head of IR Janne Flessum
Roadshow
Nordea
25 November 2016
Milan
CEO Helge Leiro Baastad Head of IR Janne Flessum
Roadshow
KBW
6 December 2016
London
CEO Helge Leiro Baastad Head of IR Janne Flessum
European Conference
Berenberg
Appendix
General insurance – cost ratio and loss ratio per segment
Private
Commercial
74.4 % 12.6 %
73.4 % 12.7 %
67.4 % 12.5 %
74.9 % 12.9 %
80.4 % 11.6 %
77.1 % 10.9 %
76.8 % 11.2 %
78.1 % 10.6 %
61.8 %
60.6 %
54.9 %
62.0 %
68.9 %
66.1 %
65.6 %
67.5 %
YTD 2015
YTD 2016
Q3 2015
Q3 2016
YTD 2015
YTD 2016
Q3 2015
Q3 2016
Loss ratio
Cost ratio
Loss ratio
Nordic
Cost ratio
Baltics
88.5 % 15.3 %
94.8 % 15.2 %
89.8 % 14.5 %
96.2 % 14.7 %
73.1 %
79.6 %
75.3 %
81.5 %
YTD 2015
YTD 2016
Q3 2015
Q3 2016
Loss ratio
Cost ratio
108.9 %
108.0 %
111.9 %
108.2 %
32.8 %
37.4 %
33.2 %
38.5 %
76.1 %
70.6 %
78.7 %
69.7 %
YTD 2015
YTD 2016
Q3 2015
Q3 2016
Loss ratio
Cost ratio 20
Effect of discounting of claims provisions Assuming Solvency II regime
Effect of discounting on CR – Q3 2016
Assumptions • Only claims provisions are discounted (i.e. premium provisions are undiscounted) • Swap rates in Norway, Sweden and Denmark
0.8%
87.5%
Reported CR
86.7%
Discounting
• Euroswap rates in the Baltic countries
Discounted CR (SII)
21
Large losses and run-off development
~ NOK 1.3bn in large losses* expected annually
Expected annual run-off gains of ~NOK 800m next 2-4 years
NOK m 500
Run-off % of earned premium Motor TPL and WC (Norway)
4.0 %
450
3.5 %
400
Group life and Motor BI (Norway) Liability and Accident (Denmark)
3.0 %
350
2.5 %
300
2.0 %
250
1.5 %
Reported
* Losses >NOK 10m. From and including 2012, the numbers include weather related large losses.
Run-off (%), net
R12M 2016Q3
Expected
2015
-2.0 %
2014
WC and disease (Norway)
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-1.5 %
2008
-1.0 %
2007
0
2006
-0.5 %
2005
50
2004
0.0 % 2003
100
2002
0.5 % 2001
150
2000
1.0 %
Q316 Q216 Q116 Q415 Q315 Q215 Q115 Q414 Q314 Q214 Q114 Q413 Q313 Q213 Q113 Q412 Q312 Q212 Q112 Q411 Q311 Q211 Q111
200
Average 22
Quarterly underwriting results General Insurance
NOK m 1 150 950 750 550 350 150 ( 50) ( 250) ( 450) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008 79 270 346 165
2009 97 319 259 142
2010 (369) 289 562 315
2011 50 615 570 186
Q1
2012 506 719 780 603
Q2
Q3
2013 343 448 853 376
2014 349 951 755 807
2015 417 1070 1091 879
2016 774 * 1072 832 **
Q4
*Reported UW result for Q1 2016 was NOK 1,251m. Adjusted for a non-recurring income of NOK 477m related to the pension plans, the UW result was NOK 774m. ** Reported UW result for Q3 2016 was NOK 712m. Adjusted for a non-recurring NOK 120m restructuring cost the UW result was NOK 832m.
23
Asset allocation As at 30.09.2016
Match portfolio
Free portfolio
• Carrying amount: NOK 36.3bn • Average duration: 3.5 years
• Carrying amount: NOK 19.6bn • Average duration fixed-income instruments: 3.2 years 7%
17%
23% 17%
34%
6% 19%
49%
14% 4% 10%
Money market Bonds at amortised cost Current bonds
Money market High Yield Current equities Property
Other bonds Convertible bonds PE-funds Other
24
Stable contribution from the match portfolio
Quarterly investment returns*
Asset allocation as at 30.09.2016
8% 6% 4% 2%
35%
0% Q3 2016
Q1 2016
Q3 2015
Q1 2015
Q3 2014
Q1 2014
Q3 2013
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q1 2012
Q3 2011
Q1 2011
Q3 2010
Q1 2010
-2% -4%
65% -6% -8% -10%
Match portfolio
Free portfolio
Match portfolio Free portfolio * Associated companies
* From and including 2014 former associated companies are included in the Free portfolio. The investment in STB was sold in Q1 2014. From and including Q2 2014 the investment in SRBANK was classified as an ordinary share
25
Balanced geographical exposure
Match portfolio
Free portfolio, fixed-income instruments
2%
0%
7%
9%
8%
12%
37%
6% 49%
22% 39%
6%
2% 1%
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
UK
Baltic
Other
USA
Figures as at 30.09.2016. Geographical distribution relates to issuers and does not reflect actual currency exposure
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
UK
Baltic
Other
USA
26
Credit and counterparty risk
Credit exposure
Total fixed income portfolio
•
Split - Rating
•
The portfolio consists mainly of securities in rated companies with high creditworthiness (Investment grade) Issuers with no official rating are mainly Norwegian savings banks, municipalities, credit institutions and power producers and distributors
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC or lower
• •
Relevant benchmark for high yield and investment grade are international, wide HY and IG indices Generally, foreign-exchange risk in the investment portfolio is hedged close to 100 per cent, within a permitted limit of +/- ten per cent per currency
Internal rating* Unrated Fixed income portfolio
Match portfolio NOK bn % 10.7 3.8 6.1 1.9 0.6 1.2 0.0 8.0 4.1 36.2
Split - Counterparty
Match portfolio NOK bn
Public sector
Free portfolio NOK bn % 29.4 1.1 10.5 1.3 16.9 2.6 5.1 1.9 1.5 1.0 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 22.0 1.4 11.3 0.6 100.0 11.0
10.1 11.4 24.1 17.5 9.3 7.7 1.4 13.0 5.5 100.0
Free portfolio % NOK bn
%
4.8
13.1
1.9
17.7
Bank/financial institutions
19.6
54.0
4.4
39.8
Corporates
11.9
32.9
4.7
42.6
Total
36.2
100.0
11.0
100.0
Figures as at 30.09.2016. * Internal rating – rating by third party
27
Overview capitalisation
SF (Group) (NOK bn)
SF (general insurance)
PIM (Group)
PIM (general insurance)
Rating model (general insurance)
Gjensidige Bank & Gjensidige Investeringsrådgivning
Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring
Capital available
Capital requirement
Solvency margin
19.8
14.7
20.1
15.2
15.0
3.3
1.6
14.0
10.0
11.3
7.2
14.4
3.3
1.3
141%
148%
179%
211%
104%
100%
123%
Figures as at 30.09.2016. The Solvency II regulation is principle based. Calculations are based on Gjensidige’s understanding of the Solvency II regulation and how it is implemented in Norway, including the current view of the Norwegian FSA on the guarantee provision. If the Guarantee provision had been treated as solvency capital, the Group’s PIM and SF solvency margins would be 183% and 144%, respectively. The figures related to the S&P rating model are based on Gjensidige’s interpretations of the model. Total comprehensive income is included in the calculations, minus a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit. Allocation of capital to Gjensidige Bank is based on 16 per cent capital adequacy ratio. Allocation of capital to Gjensidige Investeringsrådgivning is based on 8 per cent capital adequacy ratio.
28
Solvency II economic capital available
NOK bn 0.2
1.5
2.5 2.0 1.4 0.8
4.5 2.0
23.1
1.9
0.3
0.3
0.4
2.6 20.1
IFRS equity capital
Adjustments for other financial sectors
Subordinated debt
Declared Dividend (minimum dividend, not already dividend according to recognised in accounts dividend policy. 70% of YTD result)
Intangible assets
Fair value adjustment, assets
Discounting Risk margin Solvency II Solvency II Deferred tax Miscellaneous liability calculation of calculation of effect of technical premium claims provisions provisions for provisions life insurance (which are not (GPF) already disc.)
Economic capital available (internal model)
19.8
Additional risk margin standard formula
Figures as at 30.09.2016. GPF = Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring. The Solvency II regulation is principle based. Calculations are based on Gjensidige’s understanding of the Solvency II regulation and how it is implemented in Norway, including the current view of the Norwegian FSA on the guarantee provision. Deferred tax: All differences in valuation of assets and liabilities are adjusted for tax. No tax is assumed on the security provision. Miscellanious: Main effects are related to the guarantee scheme provision and different valuation of Oslo Areal
Economic capital available (standard formula)
29
Solvency II capital requirements
NOK bn
PIM
SF
Capital available
20.1
19.8
Capital charge for non-life and health uw risk
5.8
8.1
Capital charge for life uw risk
1.3
1.3
Capital charge for market risk
6.2
6.9
Capital charge for counterparty risk
0.4
0.4
(4.4)
(3.8)
Basic SCR
9.2
12.9
Operational risk
1.0
1.0
(2.2)
(3.2)
3.3
3.3
11.3
14.0
Diversification
Adjustments (risk-reducing effect of deferred tax) Gjensidige Bank/Gjensidige Investeringsrådgivning Total capital requirement
Solvency ratio
179%
141%
Scope internal model Out of scope, covered by SF
Within IM scope
Non-life and health uw risk Life insurance risk Other risks
Market risk Operational risk
Figures as at 30.09.2016. The Solvency II regulation is principle based. Calculations are based on Gjensidige’s understanding of the Solvency II regulation and how it is implemented in Norway, including the current view of the Norwegian FSA on the guarantee provision. If the Guarantee provision had been treated as solvency capital, the Group’s PIM and SF solvency margins would be 183% and 144%, respectively. Total comprehensive income is included in the calculations, minus a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit. Allocation of capital to Gjensidige Bank is based on 16 per cent capital adequacy ratio. Pie chart is based on allocated capital for the specified risk types within the Gjensidige Group excl. Gjensidige Bank and Gjensidige Investeringsrådgivning .
30
Solvency II sensitivities PIM
179%
175%
182%
182% 172%
190% 168%
169%
SCR 100%
Solvency II ratio
Equity (-20%/+20%)
Interest rate (-100 bps/+100 bps)
Spread (-100 bps/ +100 bps)
Inflation +100 bps
Figures as at 30.09.2016. Calculations are based on Gjensidige’s understanding of the Solvency II regulation and how it is implemented in Norway, including the current view of the Norwegian FSA on the guarantee provision. If the Guarantee provision had been treated as solvency capital, the Group’s PIM solvency margin would be 183%. Total comprehensive income is included in the calculations, minus a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit. UFR-sensitivity is very limited.
31
Solvency II sensitivities SF
141%
145% 136%
145% 134%
149% 132%
131%
SCR 100%
Solvency II ratio
Equity (-20%/+20%)
Interest rate (-100 bps/+100 bps)
Spread (-100 bps/ +100 bps)
Inflation +100 bps
Figures as at 30.09.2016. Calculations are based on Gjensidige’s understanding of the Solvency II regulation and how it is implemented in Norway, including the current view of the Norwegian FSA on the guarantee provision. If the Guarantee provision had been treated as solvency capital, the Group’s SF solvency margin would be 144%. Total comprehensive income is included in the calculations, minus a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit. UFR-sensitivity is very limited.
32
S&P total available capital
Bridging the gap between IFRS equity and available capital NOK bn 0.3 3.5
1.2
2.5 2.0 4.4
23.1
1.7
0.7
0.8
0.3
15.0
IFRS equity capital
Retail Booked equity Bank Tier 1 in Retail Bank capital and Pension and Savings (subsidiaries)
Subordinated debt
Dividend Declared (minimum dividend, not dividend already according recognised in to accounts dividend policy, 70% of YTD result)
Intangible assets
Fair value adjustment, assets
Discounting Deferred tax effect claims liability provisions (which are not already disc.) and premium provisions
Adj Oslo Areal
Total available capital (TAC)
Figures as at 30.09.2016. The figures related to the S&P rating model are based on Gjensidige’s interpretations of the model. Note that the rating perspective is based on the balance sheet of the Group’s general insurance operations.
33
S&P capital requirement
NOK bn Total capital charge for asset risk
7.3
Total capital charge for insurance risk
9.1
Total gain diversification
(1.2)
Quantitative credit
(0.9)
Total capital requirement A-rating
14.4
Figures as at 30.09.2016. The figures related to the S&P rating model are based on Gjensidige’s interpretations of the model. Note that the rating perspective is based on the balance sheet of the Group’s general insurance operations.
34
Subordinated debt capacity Principles for capacity Intermediate Equity Content
Constraint
25% of TAC
For the general insurance group, both Solvency II Tier 1 and Tier 2 instruments are classified as Intermediate Equity Content. Capital must be regulatory eligible in order to be included.
S&P
SII
Capacity and utilisation
T1
T2
Constraint
Max 20% of Tier 1 capital
Max 50% of SCR less other T2 capital items
Must be satisfied at group and solo level
•
Tier 1 remaining capacity is NOK 1.5bn • Utilised Tier 1 debt capacity: NOK 1.0bn
•
Tier 2 capacity is fully utilised for the insurance group assuming PIM approval • Utilised sub debt: NOK 1.5bn* • Utilised natural perils fund and guarantee scheme: NOK 2.9bn
Figures as at 30.09.2016. The Solvency II regulation is principle based. Calculations are based on Gjensidige’s understanding of the Solvency II regulation and how it is implemented in Norway. However, the FSA’s view on the Guarantee provision as a liability for solvency purposes has not been reflected in the debt capacity figures, as Gjensidige still assumes that the Guarantee provision will count as solvency capital. * Sub debt Gjensidige Forsikring ASA NOK 1.2bn, Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring NOK 0.3bn
35
Annualised return on equity 21.7 per cent year-to-date
Return on equity (%)
Equity (NOK m)
3 579
4 197
23 331
31.12.2015
Profit YTD Q3 2016
592
997
22 121
22 121
Dividend Total RT1 paid components issue of other comprehensive income
Bridge shows main elements in equity development
21.7
23 111 17.4
FY 2015
30.09.2016
* Annualised
YTD 2016*
36
Market leader in Norway
Market share – Total market
2.9%
18.2%
Market share – Commercial
Market share – Private
25.4%
4.2% 4.8%
21.2%
10.0%
24.4%
27.1% 24.3%
19.4%
13.3% 13.3%
14.2% Gjensidige Tryg DNB Codan
If Sparebank1 Eika Other
Source: Finance Norway, non-life insurance, 2nd quarter 2016
12.8%
4.3% Gjensidige
If
Tryg Sparebank1
Gjensidige
If
Sparebank1 Tryg
37
Nordic and Baltic growth opportunities
Market shares Norway
Market shares Sweden 2.4%
Gjensidige 25.4%
30.1%
Gjensidige If
21.2%
10.0%
6.5%
5.7% 11.2%
If Lansförsäkringar
15.1%
Folksam
29.9%
Trygg Hansa
16.4%
Other
Other
Market shares Denmark
31.7%
18.2%
Tryg Sparebank1
13.3%
18.0%
17.2% 18.0% 9.7%
Market shares Baltics Gjensidige Topdanmark Tryg Alm.Brand Codan If Other
10.8% 26.2%
13.3%
Gjensidige inc PZU If PZU
12.5% 12.9%
24.3%
Ergo BTA Other
Sources: Finance Norway, 2nd quarter 2016. Insurance Sweden, 2nd quarter 2016 (Gjensidige including Vardia), The Danish Insurance Association 3rd quarter 2015. Baltics Insurance Supervisory Authorities of Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia Statistics, competitor reports, and manual calculations, 2nd quarter 2016
38
Ownership
10 largest shareholders*
Geographical distribution of shares** 2%
No
Shareholder
1
Gjensidigestiftelsen
2
Folketrygdfondet
4.5
3
Deutsche Bank
4.2
4
Danske Bank
2.9
5
Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec
2.7
6
BlackRock
1.6
7
State Street Corporation
0.8
Gjensidige Foundation ownership policy:
8
DNB
0.8
•
Long term target holding: >60%
9
The Vanguard Group
0.7
•
10
Safe Investment Company
0.7
Can accept reduced ownership ratio in case of acquisitions and capital issues when in accordance with Gjensidige’s overall strategy
Total 10 largest
Stake (%) 62.2 24%
40% 4% 9% 22%
Norway
North America
UK
Asia
Europe excl. UK and Norway
RoW/ Unidentified
81.2
* Shareholder list based on analysis performed by Orient Capital Ltd of the register of shareholders in the Norwegian Central Securities Depository (VPS) as per 30 September 2016. This analysis provides a survey of the shareholders who are behind the nominee accounts. There is no guarantee that the list is complete. ** Distribution of shares excluding share held by the Gjensidige Foundation (Gjensidigestiftelsen).
39
Disclaimer
This presentation and the information contained herein have been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (the "Company”). Such information is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. The Company assumes no obligations to update or correct any of the information set out herein. These materials may contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company’s financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and is not prepared or made in connection with, an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, it does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, its affiliates or any of their respective advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. The Company's securities have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "US Securities Act”), and are offered and sold only outside the United States in accordance with an exemption from registration provided by Regulation S of the US Securities Act. This presentation should not form the basis of any investment decision. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offering documents published in relation to such an offering. For further information about the Company, reference is made public disclosures made by the Company, such as filings made with the Oslo Stock Exchange, periodic reports and other materials available on the Company's web pages.
40
Notes
41
Notes
42
Notes
43
Investor relations
Janne Flessum Head of Investor relations, M&A and Capital management
[email protected] Mobile: +47 91 51 47 39 Katharina H. Hesbø Investor relations officer
[email protected] Mobile: +47 99 36 28 04
Address: Schweigaards gate 21, PO Box 700 Sentrum, 0106 Oslo, Norway www.gjensidige.no/ir 44