Gjensidige Insurance Group 2nd quarter 2013 16. juli 2013
Agenda Highlights Financial performance Priorities and outlook Appendix
Solid premium growth and satisfactory result
• Pre-tax profit NOK 1,077m
CR development CR% 110 90 70
90.3
83.9
86.1
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
Q2 2011
• Underwriting result NOK 448m • Solid premium growth • Loss development on a more normal
50
Earnings per share
• •
level Flood losses NOK 113m Good cost control
• Financial result NOK 605m (1.1%)
NOK 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20
• High lending growth and good earnings development in the Bank 1.78
1.9
1.80
• 13.1% pre-tax ROE* Q2 2013
Q2 2012
Q2 2011 * Year to date, annualised
3
Highlights in the quarter
• Profitable growth • Further tariff development • Premium increase and stable •
customer base in Private Volume growth and premium increase in Commercial and Nordic
• Acquisition of Gouda Travel Insurance • Strengthens position in growing • •
niche market Premium volume NOK 290m Closing end 2013
• Contingency procedures ensured good customer experience during flood
4
Financial performance
Performance per segment
NOKm
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
YTD 2013
YTD 2012
Private
293
439
511
674
Commercial
190
202
343
439
Nordic
106
189
171
290
Baltics
9
9
11
5
Corporate Center/Costs related to owner
(74)
(67)
(152)
(134)
Corporate Center/reinsurance
(76)
(54)
(93)
(49)
Underwriting result
448
719
791
1 225
Pension og Savings
14
10
23
19
Retail Bank
43
27
91
48
Financial result
605
494
778
1,403
Amortisation and impairment losses of excess value
(32)
(32)
(64)
(64)
(2)
15
1 618
2 645
Other items Profit/(loss) before tax expenses
1 077
1 218
6
Combined ratio General Insurance
Combined ratio (%)- split loss ratio and cost ratio
91.3
90.3
86.1
83.9 15.5
15.3
15.6
15.4
75.1
Q2 2013
68.5
Q2 2012
75.8
70.5
YTD 2013
YTD 2012 7
Premiums development General Insurance
Q2 2012-Q2 2013
YTD 2012-YTD 2013 15
30
6
17
110
68 57 54 116 4,647
62
9,104
8,807
4,454
YTD 2013
CC
Baltics
Nordic
Commercial
Private
YTD 2012
Q2 2013
CC
Baltics
Nordic
Commercial
Private
Q2 2012 NOKm
8
Large losses* (net) General Insurance
Q2 2013 (Q2 2012)
YTD 2013 (YTD 2012)
NOKm
Reported claims figures
Claims
3,487 (3,050)
252
231 (283)
Loss ratio
75.1% (68.5%)
5.4%
5.0% (6.3%)
Expected Reported large losses large losses
Private
Commercial
Reported claims figures
Claims
6,902 (6,213)
493
378 (366)
Loss ratio
75.8% (70.5%)
5.4%
4.1% (4.2%)
Expected Reported large losses large losses
252 210
193 123 25 20
NOKm
83 70
0 0
0 0
Nordic
Baltics
Q2 2013 * Loss event in excess of NOK 10m.
Q2 2012
CC
114 25 20 Private
Commercial
25 15
4 4
Nordic
Baltics
YTD 2013
75
CC
YTD 2012 9
Run-off (net) General Insurance
Run-off % of earned premium 222 3.0
Grouplife and Motor BI (Norway) Liability and Accident (Denmark )
2.5
102 62
2.0
28
1.5 Q2 2013*
Q2 2012
YTD 2013* YTD 2012
1.0 0.5
3 Private NOKm
11
Commercial
Q2 2013
16 1 Nordic
Baltics
-1.5 -2.0
Q2 2012
* Run off from general insurance segments and run-off on corporate centre/reinsurance
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-1.0
2
Q213 R12M
20 22
2001
-0.5
2000
0.0
66
WC and disease (Norway)
Run-off (%), net
Average 10
Cost development General Insurance
1,370 685
4 2
1,411 711 1 3
2 18 2 7
2 13 1
13
YTD 2012-YTD 2013 Q2 2012-Q2 2013
YTD 2013 CC/Reinsurance CC/Cost r.t owner Baltics Nordic Commercial Private YTD 2012
Q2 2013 CC/Reinsurance CC/Cost r.t owner Baltics Nordic Commercial
Private Q2 2012
11
Economic capital allocation Internal, risk-based requirement per 30.06.2013 Diversified (NOKbn) Allocated diversification between segments (NOKbn)
4.0
Asset risk (NOKbn)
0.5
0.1
1.0
0.2
1.0
1.5
0.1 0.3
11.5
7.5
2.9
0.2 1.7 Private
Commercial
Nordic
Baltics
Pension og Savings
RetailBank
Total ECR operational segments
Asset risk
NOKm ECR1)2) Underwriting result Q22013
1,906
3,073
1,527
179
293
190
106
9
Pre-tax profit Q2 2013, Other Claims provisions, gross, per 30.06.2013
10,356
13,625
5,913
219
341
1,499
14
43
8,525
4,028
Total diversified inc. asset risk 11,544
341
1)
Allocation of economic capital to general insurance segments is calculated using Gjensidige’s internal model. The allocation reflects capital requirements based on internal assessments of insurance risk and market risk. Market risk is intended to be minimized due to the assumption of a replicating portfolio of financial instruments, appropriate to the term, nature and currency of the liability cashflows. The internal model is being developed to be Solvency II compliant. The allocation also reflects operational risk and reinsurer counterparty risk, in line with the current proposal for the Solvency II standard model.
2)
Allocation of capital to Pension and savings and Online retail banking is based on 10 per cent and 13.5 per cent capital adequacy, respectively.
12
Group capital position per 30.06.2013
Available capital from different perspectives*
11.0
5.1
8.1
11.5
13.7
7.8
• Legal
15.8
• Rating-based
18.8
• Internal risk-based
22.5
IFRS equity
23.7
* YTD result not included
S&P model Excess capital A-rating**
Legal perspective
Internal riskbased perspective
Rating-based perspective
NOKbn
Total available capital (TAC)
NOKbn 5.1 18.8
Total capital charge for asset risk
6.0
Total capital charge for insurance risk
8.8
Capital charge Excess capital Excess capital most binding capital requirement NOKbn
Total gain diversification
-1.0
Total capital requirement A-rating
13.7
* *Before buffer
13
Asset allocation per 30.06.2013
Match portfolio
Free portfolio
• Carrying amount: NOK 33.6 bn • Average duration: 3.3 years
• Carrying amount: NOK 17.1 bn • Average duration, fixed income instruments: 1.9 years
3%
14%
26%
25%
29% 6% 61%
10%
10% 11%
Money market Bonds at amortized cost Current bonds
Money market Other bonds Current equities Property
6% High Yield Convertible bonds PE funds Other 14
Investment return (%)
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
YTD 2013
4.2
4.6 1.9
0.9 1.0
Match portfolio
YTD 2012
0.6 0.4 Associated companies
Free portfolio
1.1
0.9
1.7
2.6 2.8
2.1
2.5 1.4
Total
-5.8 Match portfolio
Associated companies
Free portfolio
Total
15
Priorities and outlook
• Optimising partnerships • Continued exploration of growth opportunities
• Operational efficiency
• Stable and rational competitive environment • New regulations • Macroeconomic uncertainty • Sound capital position and financial strength
16
Appendix Fjern ri
Key financials Group figures
NOKm
Q2 2013
Q2 2012 YTD 2013 YTD 2012
2012
2011
4 866
4 580
9 532
9 119
18 478
18 081
Loss ratio, general insurance
75.1
68.5
75.8
70.5
69.9
75.5
Cost ratio, general insurance
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.5
16.4
UW result, general insurance
448
719
791
1 225
2 608
1 421
Net income from investment
616
503
800
1 424
3 056
2 376
1 077
1 218
1 618
2 645
5 634
3 647
891
950
1 208
2 041
4 280
2 748
Earned premiums, total
Profit/(loss) before tax Profit/(loss) for the period
18
Combined ratio (%) General insurance - split by cost ratio and loss ratio per segment
Private 84.9 13.4
Commercial 89.1 11.4
88.1 11.9
85.0 12.0
67.4
77.7
76.2
73.1
2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
2012
92.4
91.9
95.7
26.6
29.4
28.7
76.5 13.6
80.8 13.4
71.5
62.9
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
Nordic 86.8
Baltics
18.0
74.4 17.9
82.1 17.4
68.8
56.5
64.7
65.8
62.4
67.0
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
2012 19
Discounting of loss provisions Group
Effect of discounting on CR Q2 2013
Assumptions
• Only loss provisions are discounted (i.e. premium provisions are undiscounted)
2.8 %
• Swap rates in Norway and
90.3 %
87.5 %
Sweden
• Interest rate set by the Danish Reported CR
Discounting
Discounted CR
FSA in Denmark
• Euroswap rates in the Baltic countries
20
Quarterly underwriting results General insurance
719 780 615 570
562
270
346
319 165
79
289
259
448 343
315 186
142
97
603 506
50
(369)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2
2011
2012
2013
NOKm 21
Investment portfolio Stable contribution from the match portfolio
Asset allocation 30.06.2013
Quarterly investment return
8% 6% 4%
31 %
2%
0% -2 %
60 % 9%
-4 % -6 % -8 %
-10 % -12 % Match portfolio Associated companies Free portfolio
Match portfolio Free portfolio Associated companies Total investment portfolio
22
Investment portfolio Geographical exposure per 30.06.2013
Match portfolio
Country
Free portfolio, fixed income instruments Share (%)
Country
Share (%)
Norway
48.4
Norway
45.0
Denmark
27.1
USA
22.1 11.9
UK
6.7
UK
Sweden
5.8
Sweden
3.8
USA
3.7
Baltics
0.1
Baltics
1.6
Other
17.1
Other
6.8
23
Rating and counterparty risk Total fixed income portfolio
Credit exposure
• The portfolio consists mainly of securities in rated companies with high creditworthiness (Investment grade)
• Non-public rated insurers are mainly Norwegian savings banks, municipals, credit institutions and power producers and distributors
Q2 2013 Split of total fixed income portfolio – Rating AAA
10,841,466
26.0 %
3,096,373
7.4 %
13,612,108
32.7 %
1,977,141
4.7 %
BB
545,065
1.3 %
B
543,563
1.3 %
CCC or lower
147,179
0.4 %
Not rated
10,921,051
26.2 %
Fixed income portfolio
41,683,946
100.0 %
AA A BBB
Split of total fixed income portfolio - Exposure Public sector
4,608,614
11.1 %
Banks/financial institutions
26,136,333
62.7 %
Corporates
10,938,999
26.2 %
41,683,946
100.0 %
Total
24
Return on equity
Equity (NOKm)
• Capital adequacy of 16.3% (15.8% at the end of 2. quarter 2012) 23,680
25,618
• Solvency margin of 542.2% (518.4 % at the end of 2. quarter 2012)
YTD 2013
YE 2012
Pre-tax return on equity* (%)
23.8 13.1
YTD 2013
2012
*annualised
25
Norwegian market leader, Nordic and Baltic growth opportunities Norway
Sweden 1.2%
Gjensidige 25.0%
25.2%
10.1%
24.7% 15.0%
Gjensidige If Tryg Sparebank1 Other
Denmark
19.1%
18.2%
Lansförsäkringar
16.2% 29.8%
Other
Baltics
17.3% 19.7%
6.0%
12.5%
Folksam Trygg Hansa
15.5%
5.5%
29.4%
If
9.6%
8.4%
Gjensidige Topdanmark Tryg Alm.Brand Codan If Other
22.8% 21.7%
6.4%
15.4% 13.5%
11.8%
Gjensidige If Ergo BTA Seesam Codan Other
Source: Norway: Finance Norway, 1. quarter 2013. Sweden: Svensk Försäkring, 1. quarter 2013, Denmark: Forsikring & Pension, 2. quarter 2012. Baltics Insurance Supervisory Authorities of Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia Statistics, competitor reports, and manual corrections 1. quarter 2013
26
Market leader in Norway
Market share – Total market 5% 3%
Market share – Commercial
Gjensidige
14 %
If
25 %
Tryg Sparebank1
4% 10 %
30.9 %
27.4 %
Eika
25 %
13.8 %
4.8 %
Codan
15 %
DNB
Gjensidige
If
Tryg
Sparebank1
Other
Market share – Private
22.6 %
23.6 %
71.3 % 15.3 %
Gjensidige
Market share – Agriculture
If
Tryg
12.6 % Sparebank1
Gjensidige
13.4 %
1.9 %
If
Tryg
10.7 % Eika
Source: Finance Norway, general insurance 1 quarter 2013. The definition of Private and Commercial is adjusted to reflect Gjensidige’s business model. Agriculture is defined as part of Commercial *Sparebank1 non-life and Sparebank1 life figures have been combined.
27
Norwegian Natural Perils Pool
Details regarding the pool
Objects covered
• Premiums for 2013 set as 0.07 per
• Fire insurance coverage for buildings
thousand of the fire insurance amount
• Natural perils damages in Norway: •
NOK 0-600m covered by general insurance companies based on national market share
•
NOK 600-12,500m covered by the Natural Perils Pool’s reinsurance programme
•
Maximum claims level per event is NOK 12,500m
• No limit for the frequency of events
and contents in Norway includes coverage for natural catastrophes
• The pool does not cover loss of profits, motor vehicles, leisure boats, and certain other items, which rely on ordinary insurance coverage
• Damages on private property that cannot be insured, e.g. roads, bridges, farmland and forests, may be covered by the National Natural Perils Fund
28
Norwegian Natural Perils Pool
Handling of natural perils claims
Gjensidige specific
• The customers report claims to own
• Market share for Gjensidige in 2013 is
insurance company
• The insurance company reports claims on to Finance Norway, which coordinates the Natural Perils Pool
• Share of claims is allocated to the companies based on national market share for fire insurance
calculated to 26.7 % (Adjusted in July every year)
• Gjensidige is a reinsurer for the pool, for it’s own market share
• Natural perils claims are booked in the same month as the claim occurs
• Through own accounts, the companies cover the allocated claims costs
29
Practical example for natural perils in Norway
• Reinsurance is purchased to protect the groups equity capital and is thus primarily a capital management tool
• General retention level per loss/event is NOK 100m Example: A natural peril event covered by the Natural Perils Pool occurs and is defined by Finance Norway as one event. The total industry claim exceeds NOK 600m.
• Gjensidige is allocated it’s share of the NOK 600m claim from the pool
• Gjensidige is in addition allocated its share of the amount exceeding NOK 600m, as a reinsurer for the pool
• Gjensidige receives claims directly, for damages not covered by the pool • Gjensidige’s total claims related to this natural peril event exceeds Gjensidige’s retention level and only hits the natural peril reinsurance programme Gjensidige’s retention for this claim will amount to around NOK 100m
30
Investor relations
Janne Flessum Head of Investor Relations
[email protected] Phone: +47 22 96 80 00 Mobile: +47 91 51 47 39 Linn Soltvedt Investor Relations Officer
[email protected] Phone: +47 22 96 80 00 Mobile: +47 41 11 05 55
Addresse: Drammensveien 288, Oslo. Postboks 276, NO-1326 Lysaker, Norge. www.gjensidige.no/ir 31
Disclaimer
The information contained herein has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (“the Company”). Such information is confidential and is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. These materials contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company’s financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, any selling equity holder, any member of the underwriting syndicate, or any of their respective affiliates, advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in an offering circular or prospectus published in relation to such an offering. 32