Gjensidige Insurance Group 2nd quarter juli 2013

Gjensidige Insurance Group 2nd quarter 2013 16. juli 2013 Agenda Highlights Financial performance Priorities and outlook Appendix Solid premium gr...
Author: Clementine Cook
0 downloads 0 Views 729KB Size
Gjensidige Insurance Group 2nd quarter 2013 16. juli 2013

Agenda Highlights Financial performance Priorities and outlook Appendix

Solid premium growth and satisfactory result

• Pre-tax profit NOK 1,077m

CR development CR% 110 90 70

90.3

83.9

86.1

Q2 2013

Q2 2012

Q2 2011

• Underwriting result NOK 448m • Solid premium growth • Loss development on a more normal

50

Earnings per share

• •

level Flood losses NOK 113m Good cost control

• Financial result NOK 605m (1.1%)

NOK 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20

• High lending growth and good earnings development in the Bank 1.78

1.9

1.80

• 13.1% pre-tax ROE* Q2 2013

Q2 2012

Q2 2011 * Year to date, annualised

3

Highlights in the quarter

• Profitable growth • Further tariff development • Premium increase and stable •

customer base in Private Volume growth and premium increase in Commercial and Nordic

• Acquisition of Gouda Travel Insurance • Strengthens position in growing • •

niche market Premium volume NOK 290m Closing end 2013

• Contingency procedures ensured good customer experience during flood

4

Financial performance

Performance per segment

NOKm

Q2 2013

Q2 2012

YTD 2013

YTD 2012

Private

293

439

511

674

Commercial

190

202

343

439

Nordic

106

189

171

290

Baltics

9

9

11

5

Corporate Center/Costs related to owner

(74)

(67)

(152)

(134)

Corporate Center/reinsurance

(76)

(54)

(93)

(49)

Underwriting result

448

719

791

1 225

Pension og Savings

14

10

23

19

Retail Bank

43

27

91

48

Financial result

605

494

778

1,403

Amortisation and impairment losses of excess value

(32)

(32)

(64)

(64)

(2)

15

1 618

2 645

Other items Profit/(loss) before tax expenses

1 077

1 218

6

Combined ratio General Insurance

Combined ratio (%)- split loss ratio and cost ratio

91.3

90.3

86.1

83.9 15.5

15.3

15.6

15.4

75.1

Q2 2013

68.5

Q2 2012

75.8

70.5

YTD 2013

YTD 2012 7

Premiums development General Insurance

Q2 2012-Q2 2013

YTD 2012-YTD 2013 15

30

6

17

110

68 57 54 116 4,647

62

9,104

8,807

4,454

YTD 2013

CC

Baltics

Nordic

Commercial

Private

YTD 2012

Q2 2013

CC

Baltics

Nordic

Commercial

Private

Q2 2012 NOKm

8

Large losses* (net) General Insurance

Q2 2013 (Q2 2012)

YTD 2013 (YTD 2012)

NOKm

Reported claims figures

Claims

3,487 (3,050)

252

231 (283)

Loss ratio

75.1% (68.5%)

5.4%

5.0% (6.3%)

Expected Reported large losses large losses

Private

Commercial

Reported claims figures

Claims

6,902 (6,213)

493

378 (366)

Loss ratio

75.8% (70.5%)

5.4%

4.1% (4.2%)

Expected Reported large losses large losses

252 210

193 123 25 20

NOKm

83 70

0 0

0 0

Nordic

Baltics

Q2 2013 * Loss event in excess of NOK 10m.

Q2 2012

CC

114 25 20 Private

Commercial

25 15

4 4

Nordic

Baltics

YTD 2013

75

CC

YTD 2012 9

Run-off (net) General Insurance

Run-off % of earned premium 222 3.0

Grouplife and Motor BI (Norway) Liability and Accident (Denmark )

2.5

102 62

2.0

28

1.5 Q2 2013*

Q2 2012

YTD 2013* YTD 2012

1.0 0.5

3 Private NOKm

11

Commercial

Q2 2013

16 1 Nordic

Baltics

-1.5 -2.0

Q2 2012

* Run off from general insurance segments and run-off on corporate centre/reinsurance

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

-1.0

2

Q213 R12M

20 22

2001

-0.5

2000

0.0

66

WC and disease (Norway)

Run-off (%), net

Average 10

Cost development General Insurance

1,370 685

4 2

1,411 711 1 3

2 18 2 7

2 13 1

13

YTD 2012-YTD 2013 Q2 2012-Q2 2013

YTD 2013 CC/Reinsurance CC/Cost r.t owner Baltics Nordic Commercial Private YTD 2012

Q2 2013 CC/Reinsurance CC/Cost r.t owner Baltics Nordic Commercial

Private Q2 2012

11

Economic capital allocation Internal, risk-based requirement per 30.06.2013 Diversified (NOKbn) Allocated diversification between segments (NOKbn)

4.0

Asset risk (NOKbn)

0.5

0.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.5

0.1 0.3

11.5

7.5

2.9

0.2 1.7 Private

Commercial

Nordic

Baltics

Pension og Savings

RetailBank

Total ECR operational segments

Asset risk

NOKm ECR1)2) Underwriting result Q22013

1,906

3,073

1,527

179

293

190

106

9

Pre-tax profit Q2 2013, Other Claims provisions, gross, per 30.06.2013

10,356

13,625

5,913

219

341

1,499

14

43

8,525

4,028

Total diversified inc. asset risk 11,544

341

1)

Allocation of economic capital to general insurance segments is calculated using Gjensidige’s internal model. The allocation reflects capital requirements based on internal assessments of insurance risk and market risk. Market risk is intended to be minimized due to the assumption of a replicating portfolio of financial instruments, appropriate to the term, nature and currency of the liability cashflows. The internal model is being developed to be Solvency II compliant. The allocation also reflects operational risk and reinsurer counterparty risk, in line with the current proposal for the Solvency II standard model.

2)

Allocation of capital to Pension and savings and Online retail banking is based on 10 per cent and 13.5 per cent capital adequacy, respectively.

12

Group capital position per 30.06.2013

Available capital from different perspectives*

11.0

5.1

8.1

11.5

13.7

7.8

• Legal

15.8

• Rating-based

18.8

• Internal risk-based

22.5

IFRS equity

23.7

* YTD result not included

S&P model Excess capital A-rating**

Legal perspective

Internal riskbased perspective

Rating-based perspective

NOKbn

Total available capital (TAC)

NOKbn 5.1 18.8

Total capital charge for asset risk

6.0

Total capital charge for insurance risk

8.8

Capital charge Excess capital Excess capital most binding capital requirement NOKbn

Total gain diversification

-1.0

Total capital requirement A-rating

13.7

* *Before buffer

13

Asset allocation per 30.06.2013

Match portfolio

Free portfolio

• Carrying amount: NOK 33.6 bn • Average duration: 3.3 years

• Carrying amount: NOK 17.1 bn • Average duration, fixed income instruments: 1.9 years

3%

14%

26%

25%

29% 6% 61%

10%

10% 11%

Money market Bonds at amortized cost Current bonds

Money market Other bonds Current equities Property

6% High Yield Convertible bonds PE funds Other 14

Investment return (%)

Q2 2013

Q2 2012

YTD 2013

4.2

4.6 1.9

0.9 1.0

Match portfolio

YTD 2012

0.6 0.4 Associated companies

Free portfolio

1.1

0.9

1.7

2.6 2.8

2.1

2.5 1.4

Total

-5.8 Match portfolio

Associated companies

Free portfolio

Total

15

Priorities and outlook

• Optimising partnerships • Continued exploration of growth opportunities

• Operational efficiency

• Stable and rational competitive environment • New regulations • Macroeconomic uncertainty • Sound capital position and financial strength

16

Appendix Fjern ri

Key financials Group figures

NOKm

Q2 2013

Q2 2012 YTD 2013 YTD 2012

2012

2011

4 866

4 580

9 532

9 119

18 478

18 081

Loss ratio, general insurance

75.1

68.5

75.8

70.5

69.9

75.5

Cost ratio, general insurance

15.3

15.4

15.5

15.6

15.5

16.4

UW result, general insurance

448

719

791

1 225

2 608

1 421

Net income from investment

616

503

800

1 424

3 056

2 376

1 077

1 218

1 618

2 645

5 634

3 647

891

950

1 208

2 041

4 280

2 748

Earned premiums, total

Profit/(loss) before tax Profit/(loss) for the period

18

Combined ratio (%) General insurance - split by cost ratio and loss ratio per segment

Private 84.9 13.4

Commercial 89.1 11.4

88.1 11.9

85.0 12.0

67.4

77.7

76.2

73.1

2012

Q2 2013

Q2 2012

2012

92.4

91.9

95.7

26.6

29.4

28.7

76.5 13.6

80.8 13.4

71.5

62.9

Q2 2013

Q2 2012

Nordic 86.8

Baltics

18.0

74.4 17.9

82.1 17.4

68.8

56.5

64.7

65.8

62.4

67.0

Q2 2013

Q2 2012

2012

Q2 2013

Q2 2012

2012 19

Discounting of loss provisions Group

Effect of discounting on CR Q2 2013

Assumptions

• Only loss provisions are discounted (i.e. premium provisions are undiscounted)

2.8 %

• Swap rates in Norway and

90.3 %

87.5 %

Sweden

• Interest rate set by the Danish Reported CR

Discounting

Discounted CR

FSA in Denmark

• Euroswap rates in the Baltic countries

20

Quarterly underwriting results General insurance

719 780 615 570

562

270

346

319 165

79

289

259

448 343

315 186

142

97

603 506

50

(369)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 Q2

2011

2012

2013

NOKm 21

Investment portfolio Stable contribution from the match portfolio

Asset allocation 30.06.2013

Quarterly investment return

8% 6% 4%

31 %

2%

0% -2 %

60 % 9%

-4 % -6 % -8 %

-10 % -12 % Match portfolio Associated companies Free portfolio

Match portfolio Free portfolio Associated companies Total investment portfolio

22

Investment portfolio Geographical exposure per 30.06.2013

Match portfolio

Country

Free portfolio, fixed income instruments Share (%)

Country

Share (%)

Norway

48.4

Norway

45.0

Denmark

27.1

USA

22.1 11.9

UK

6.7

UK

Sweden

5.8

Sweden

3.8

USA

3.7

Baltics

0.1

Baltics

1.6

Other

17.1

Other

6.8

23

Rating and counterparty risk Total fixed income portfolio

Credit exposure

• The portfolio consists mainly of securities in rated companies with high creditworthiness (Investment grade)

• Non-public rated insurers are mainly Norwegian savings banks, municipals, credit institutions and power producers and distributors

Q2 2013 Split of total fixed income portfolio – Rating AAA

10,841,466

26.0 %

3,096,373

7.4 %

13,612,108

32.7 %

1,977,141

4.7 %

BB

545,065

1.3 %

B

543,563

1.3 %

CCC or lower

147,179

0.4 %

Not rated

10,921,051

26.2 %

Fixed income portfolio

41,683,946

100.0 %

AA A BBB

Split of total fixed income portfolio - Exposure Public sector

4,608,614

11.1 %

Banks/financial institutions

26,136,333

62.7 %

Corporates

10,938,999

26.2 %

41,683,946

100.0 %

Total

24

Return on equity

Equity (NOKm)

• Capital adequacy of 16.3% (15.8% at the end of 2. quarter 2012) 23,680

25,618

• Solvency margin of 542.2% (518.4 % at the end of 2. quarter 2012)

YTD 2013

YE 2012

Pre-tax return on equity* (%)

23.8 13.1

YTD 2013

2012

*annualised

25

Norwegian market leader, Nordic and Baltic growth opportunities Norway

Sweden 1.2%

Gjensidige 25.0%

25.2%

10.1%

24.7% 15.0%

Gjensidige If Tryg Sparebank1 Other

Denmark

19.1%

18.2%

Lansförsäkringar

16.2% 29.8%

Other

Baltics

17.3% 19.7%

6.0%

12.5%

Folksam Trygg Hansa

15.5%

5.5%

29.4%

If

9.6%

8.4%

Gjensidige Topdanmark Tryg Alm.Brand Codan If Other

22.8% 21.7%

6.4%

15.4% 13.5%

11.8%

Gjensidige If Ergo BTA Seesam Codan Other

Source: Norway: Finance Norway, 1. quarter 2013. Sweden: Svensk Försäkring, 1. quarter 2013, Denmark: Forsikring & Pension, 2. quarter 2012. Baltics Insurance Supervisory Authorities of Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia Statistics, competitor reports, and manual corrections 1. quarter 2013

26

Market leader in Norway

Market share – Total market 5% 3%

Market share – Commercial

Gjensidige

14 %

If

25 %

Tryg Sparebank1

4% 10 %

30.9 %

27.4 %

Eika

25 %

13.8 %

4.8 %

Codan

15 %

DNB

Gjensidige

If

Tryg

Sparebank1

Other

Market share – Private

22.6 %

23.6 %

71.3 % 15.3 %

Gjensidige

Market share – Agriculture

If

Tryg

12.6 % Sparebank1

Gjensidige

13.4 %

1.9 %

If

Tryg

10.7 % Eika

Source: Finance Norway, general insurance 1 quarter 2013. The definition of Private and Commercial is adjusted to reflect Gjensidige’s business model. Agriculture is defined as part of Commercial *Sparebank1 non-life and Sparebank1 life figures have been combined.

27

Norwegian Natural Perils Pool

Details regarding the pool

Objects covered

• Premiums for 2013 set as 0.07 per

• Fire insurance coverage for buildings

thousand of the fire insurance amount

• Natural perils damages in Norway: •

NOK 0-600m covered by general insurance companies based on national market share



NOK 600-12,500m covered by the Natural Perils Pool’s reinsurance programme



Maximum claims level per event is NOK 12,500m

• No limit for the frequency of events

and contents in Norway includes coverage for natural catastrophes

• The pool does not cover loss of profits, motor vehicles, leisure boats, and certain other items, which rely on ordinary insurance coverage

• Damages on private property that cannot be insured, e.g. roads, bridges, farmland and forests, may be covered by the National Natural Perils Fund

28

Norwegian Natural Perils Pool

Handling of natural perils claims

Gjensidige specific

• The customers report claims to own

• Market share for Gjensidige in 2013 is

insurance company

• The insurance company reports claims on to Finance Norway, which coordinates the Natural Perils Pool

• Share of claims is allocated to the companies based on national market share for fire insurance

calculated to 26.7 % (Adjusted in July every year)

• Gjensidige is a reinsurer for the pool, for it’s own market share

• Natural perils claims are booked in the same month as the claim occurs

• Through own accounts, the companies cover the allocated claims costs

29

Practical example for natural perils in Norway

• Reinsurance is purchased to protect the groups equity capital and is thus primarily a capital management tool

• General retention level per loss/event is NOK 100m Example: A natural peril event covered by the Natural Perils Pool occurs and is defined by Finance Norway as one event. The total industry claim exceeds NOK 600m.

• Gjensidige is allocated it’s share of the NOK 600m claim from the pool

• Gjensidige is in addition allocated its share of the amount exceeding NOK 600m, as a reinsurer for the pool

• Gjensidige receives claims directly, for damages not covered by the pool • Gjensidige’s total claims related to this natural peril event exceeds Gjensidige’s retention level and only hits the natural peril reinsurance programme Gjensidige’s retention for this claim will amount to around NOK 100m

30

Investor relations

Janne Flessum Head of Investor Relations [email protected] Phone: +47 22 96 80 00 Mobile: +47 91 51 47 39 Linn Soltvedt Investor Relations Officer [email protected] Phone: +47 22 96 80 00 Mobile: +47 41 11 05 55

Addresse: Drammensveien 288, Oslo. Postboks 276, NO-1326 Lysaker, Norge. www.gjensidige.no/ir 31

Disclaimer

The information contained herein has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (“the Company”). Such information is confidential and is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. These materials contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company’s financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, any selling equity holder, any member of the underwriting syndicate, or any of their respective affiliates, advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in an offering circular or prospectus published in relation to such an offering. 32