2nd Quarter Earnings Conference Call AT&T Investor Update July 21, 2016
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Agenda
2Q16 Results Business Update Q&A
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
Cautionary Language Concerning Forward-Looking Statements Information set forth in this presentation contains financial estimates and other forwardlooking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results might differ materially. A discussion of factors that may affect future results is contained in AT&T’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. AT&T disclaims any obligation to update and revise statements contained in this presentation based on new information or otherwise. This presentation may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between the non-GAAP financial measures and the GAAP financial measures are available on the company’s website at www.att.com/investor.relations. The “quiet period” for FCC Spectrum Auction 1000 (also known as the 600 MHz incentive auction) is now in effect. During the quiet period, auction applicants are required to avoid discussions of bids, bidding strategy and post-auction market structure with other auction applicants.
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© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
2Q16 Results
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
2Q16 Financial Summary $ in billions, except EPS
Revenues
% Entertainment
$40.5
Adjusted EPS
Adj. OI Margin
$0.70 $0.72
Free Cash Flow
Capital Investment2
$4.5
$4.8
17.5%
2Q15
2Q16
19.8%
20.1%
2Q15
2Q16
Reported EPS
$4.7
$5.6
2Q15
2Q16
$0.59
$0.55
Cash from operations of $10.3 billion, up 12.5% • Free cash flow of $4.8 billion
$0.01
$0.14
Merger, integration and other1
$0.10
$0.03
$0.70
$0.72
includes merger-related items for DIRECTV ($0.01) and Mexico/Other wireless ($0.01). 2Q16 includes $95 million capital purchases in Mexico with favorable vendor payment terms.
2
5
• Adjusted EPS of $0.72 for the quarter,
2Q16
2Q15
Amortization of intangibles
12Q16
Net Income continues to grow up 6.7% year to date • Adjusted operating margins expand year over year
Adjustments:
Adjusted EPS
• DIRECTV acquisition and gains in IP-based
services drove growth
$33.0 31.4%
Consolidated revenues of $40.5 billion, up 22.7%
• Capital investment of $5.6 billion;
$10.3 billion year to date • Dividends of $3 billion per quarter ̵ 61% of second-quarter free cash flow ̵ 73% year to date
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
2Q16 Results: Business Solutions Financial Results ($ in billions)
Revenues
EBITDA
$17.7
EBITDA Margin
• Continued margin expansion
$17.6
• Revenue down slightly due to divested business and FX
Growth in Enterprise on an adjusted basis ̵ Small business growth driven by mobility ̵ Legacy continues to be challenged ̵
37.9%
38.2%
$6.7
$6.7
2Q15
2Q16
Business Solutions Revenue Mix Strategic Services
Wireless
Wireline Strategic Services Revenues $2.6
$2.8
16% 55%
11%
Other Data
18%
Legacy Voice/Other
6
32%
2Q15
36%
2Q16
• Wireless and strategic services more than 70%
of revenues ̵ Strong demand for highly secure, mobile business solutions
• Strategic services revenues up more than $200 million,
or 8%, year over year ̵ 36% of business wireline revenues
% of Wireline Bus. Rev.
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
2Q16 Results: Entertainment Group Revenue Trends1
($ in billions)
Video/Ad Sales $12.7
IP Voice/Data
Legacy/Other
$12.7 70%
19% 11%
+12.2% -17.1%
2Q15
2Q16
• Continued margin expansion, with content savings
on track
EBITDA Margin
1
revenues up nearly 7%
non-recurring PPV events
($ in billions)
7
• IP Broadband revenues up 15%; total broadband • Offsetting continued legacy pressure and
EBITDA
$2.4
subscription revenue
• Ad Sales growing double-digit year to date
+0.8%
Adjusted
• Video led by growth in recurring
$2.9
$3.1
$3.1
• 342,000 U.S satellite TV net adds; nearly 1 million
added since close
22%
22%
24%
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
25%
• More than 80% of TV subscribers on satellite platform • Seasonality impacted total video net results
2Q16
• 54,000 IPBB adds (74,000 including Business Solutions)
Adjusted to include prior-period DIRECTV revenues on a comparable basis.
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
2Q16 Results: U.S. Wireless Wireless Trends ($ in billions) 2Q15
2Q16
Δ
Service Rev. Equipment Rev. Total Revenues
15.1 3.2 18.3
14.9 3.0 17.9
(0.2) (0.2) (0.4)
Cash Opex
11.0
10.5
(0.5)
EBITDA
7.3
7.4
0.1
40.1% 48.5%
41.4% 49.8%
130bps 130bps
EBITDA Margin EBITDA Svc. Mgn.
Phone Subscribers Postpaid-Smart Postpaid-Feature Postpaid Churn 77.0
• Record 2Q BYOD and upgrade rate impact revenues • Postpaid phone-only ARPU + Next grows to $70 • 75% of smartphone base off subsidy • More than 90% of smartphone sales off subsidy
• 0.97% postpaid churn, second-best quarter ever
(in thousands)
77.3
• Record EBITDA margins – 41.4% and 49.8% service
77.2
77.4
Prepaid
• 1.4 million total net adds
185,000 branded phone net adds ̵
77.6
• Almost 800,000 branded smartphones added to base ̵
57.5
57.7 1.16%
58.1
58.3
1.10%
8
0.97% 3Q15
• 2.1 million North American net adds,
including 1.4 million branded
1.18%
1.01% 2Q15
58.5
~600,000 feature phone migrations and disconnects
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
U.S. Phone Base Continues to Grow
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
2Q16 Results: International Mexico 10 million wireless subscribers
2Q16 Mexico Wireless Subscribers (in thousands)
614
• Nearly 780,000 branded net adds
165
• Mexico City launched 9,955
(37)
• 65 million LTE POPs covered and
9,213
742 Net Adds
1Q16
Reseller Postpaid Prepaid
61 cities launched
2Q16
Mexico LTE Deployment (millions of POPs)
27 6 3Q15
51
40
41
4Q15
1Q16
65 61
2Q16
DIRECTV Latin America Subscriber growth and stable cash flows • Revenues of $1.2 billion, up 8% sequentially
Cities Launched
44
• Revenues up 13% sequentially
75 162
• Continued profitability and positive cash flow • 87,000 TV net adds, even with losses from
natural disaster in Ecuador • Sky Mexico added 121,000 net subscribers1
4Q16e 1 AT&T owns a
9
41% equity interest in Sky Mexico
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
2016 Guidance on Track Double-digit consolidated revenue growth DIRECTV drives revenue growth even with pressure from equipment sales and FX
Adjusted1 EPS growth in the mid-single digit range or better Up nearly 7% year to date
Stable consolidated margins even with ramp in Mexico investment Improved consolidated operating margins Expanding EBITDA margins in all domestic segments
Capital spending in the $22 billion range Trending toward the low end at mid-year
Free cash flow growth with dividend coverage in the 70s% 73% year to date
1 Expected
10
range excludes adjustments for non-cash mark-to-market benefit plan adjustments, merger integration costs and other adjustments that are not reasonably estimable at this time.
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
Business Update
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
Strategy – Be the World’s Premier Integrated Communications Company Connectivity Building Blocks
Industry-Leading Cost Structure
Integrated Solutions
Financial Foundation
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Project VIP/LTE Fiber
Merger synergies
Global business solutions
Strong liquidity position
•
•
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•
Spectrum
Project Agile efficiencies
Unique consumer offers
Benefit and compensation plans
•
•
•
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Strategic acquisitions
Softwaredefined network
Expansion of product set
Debt refinancing & diversification
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
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5G
Product profitability focus
Secure & flexible
Sound corporate governance
Connectivity: Sustained Data Growth Requires Multi-Layer Strategy Expand network assets • 4G LTE and network densification; Mexico buildout;
380 million North American 4G LTE POPs • Drive fiber deeper into network; GigaPower and Business Fiber deployment • 5G development; trials, testing, standards
Deploy broad spectrum portfolio • 150 MHz of spectrum; 40 MHz of readily
available spectrum ̵ WCS and AWS bands will be deployed over the next several years • Continuous 2G and 3G spectrum refarming and acquisition
Software-defined Network • Upgrading traditional architecture with flexible,
dynamic, intelligent network that can rapidly adjust and deliver next-generation services
AT&T Mobile Data Traffic Growth 150,000% (2007 – 2015) Expect 10x traffic growth by 2020
2007
2015
Capital Intensity Total Wireless Wireless capacity added 20%
Gigabytes (millions) 1500
18%
1200
16%
900
14%
600
12%
300 0
10% 2012
2013
2014
Project VIP 13
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
2015
2016e
Industry-Leading Cost Structure: Drives Margins and Cash Flows DIRECTV merger synergies
EBITDA Margin Expansion
• On track to $1.5 billion+ run rate by end of year
Illustrative
• $2.5 billion+ run rate by end of 2018
40%
Project Agile and automation benefits
35%
• Digital First, automating and streamlining
operations, exiting less profitable lines of business • On track for $3 billion run-rate cost savings
Virtualize network with software • Software-defined networks, standardized
hardware with open-source software • Capital and operational efficiencies; new revenue opportunities
30% 25% 2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e+
2016e
2020e+
Free Cash Flow (in billions) Illustrative $20
$15
$10
Significant free cash flow growth expected
$5 2013
2014
2015
Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital expenditures.
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© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
Integrated Solutions: Unique Set of Assets Drives Growth Opportunities Unmatched portfolio of integrated assets • World’s largest pay TV provider + largest North
American wireless network + pervasive broadband coverage1 • Fiber deployment to 12.5 million customer locations on track
Unique consumer offers • Game-changing OTT launch on track; choice
and flexibility for every segment • TV bundle with unlimited wireless, NFL Sunday Ticket and other promotional offers • Cross selling, advertising, Cricket, IoT, Mexico wireless
Go-to-market integrated business services • Mobile and fixed business solutions • Network Functions on Demand, NetBond®,
global reach with secure network 1 Wireless and
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U.S. Wireless Subscribers (millions) 2Q11
2Q16
60 40
71%
154%
153%
20 0 Postpaid Smartphones
Prepaid
broadband assessment based on coverage.
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
Connected Devices
Summary Becoming the premier integrated communications company Unprecedented assets and capabilities to lead in connectivity and integrated solutions
Redefining seamless connectivity Virtualized functionality of networks drives efficiencies and new services
Operating with an industry-leading cost structure Merger synergies, Project Agile, SDN and cost efficiencies
Increasing growth opportunities Cross selling, integrated services, advertising, new products, OTT services, international
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© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.
© 2016 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T, Globe logo, Mobilizing Your World and DIRECTV are registered trademarks and service marks of AT&T Intellectual Property and/or AT&T affiliated companies. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. AT&T Proprietary (Internal Use Only). Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement.