Evolution of More than Moore

The 4 waves of semiconductor business Christophe Fitamant [email protected]

© 2012

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Fields of Expertise • Yole Developpement is a market, technology and strategy consulting company, founded in 1998. We operate in the following areas: Photovoltaic Power Electronics

Microfluidic & Med Tech

Advanced Packaging

MEMS & image sensors HB LED, LED & LD

Equipment and materials

• Our expertise is based on research done by our in-house analysts, conducting open-ended interviews with most industry players. © 2012•

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Content of the presentation • Introduction to the 4 waves of the semiconductor business • The first wave: – Only a couple of companies can afford the next technology evolutions

• The second wave: – Re-use of semiconductor process to make non IC devices is creating totally new opportunities.

• The third wave: – How module manufacturing is becoming the future of device makers.

• The forth wave: – A supply chain evolution to maximize the added value and provide complete services to customers.

• Conclusion: What is happening? © 2012•

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First wave: Only a couple of companies can afford the next technology evolutions

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You know it…

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What’s happening? •

Moore’s law is still there, but: – – – –

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The transitions to 450mm and to the next lithography nodes will clearly further increase the reduction of the number of companies able to stay at the leading edge of semiconductor: – – –

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Process R&D costs have been x4 in 6 nodes (90nm-22nm), that means only few companies can pay for it, most of the others have to share the R&D costs Fab start-up costs have been x2 to 3 in 6 nodes (90nm-22nm), only 3 to 4 companies can pay for it Design costs have been x4 to 5 in 6 nodes …

Intel, Samsung, TSMC will be able to afford it IBM will develop it with its partners Toshiba, GF may be involved

What will be the reaction of the others? – – – © 2012•

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Need to find sweet spots in other part of the semiconductor business, but are series of sweet spots a sustainable strategy? For the companies outside the Moore’s law, innovation has to come outside R&D and process development… Not every company will be able to make it… 2008 Copyrights © Yole Développement SARL. All right reserved.

THE SECOND WAVE: RE-USE OF SEMICONDUCTOR PROCESS TO MAKE NON IC DEVICES IS CREATING TOTALLY NEW OPPORTUNITIES.

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Beyond Moore’s law…

“All-in-One chip system integration Euphoria”

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Higher Value !!! 2008 Copyrights © Yole Développement SARL. All right reserved.

Evolution of sales of selected More Than Moore markets $70,000M

$60,000M

$50,000M

$40,000M

$30,000M

$20,000M

$10,000M

$0M 2012 MEMS Market © 2012•

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2013 LED market

2014 Power devices market

2015

2016 Microfluidic market

2017

2018

Printed electronic Market

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Generic MEMS Processes by Device Type MEMS manufacturing can be split between surface micromachining, bulk micromachining and CMOS MEMS approaches. Table below shows, by device type, which approach corresponds to which device. Red indicates the dominant manufacturing approaches. In some cases, the three approaches can be mixed (e.g. IJ Heads are done on CMOS while cavity is done by surface while nozzles can be done by bulk).

Si µphones

Acceleros

Gyros

Magnetom eters

Pressure

RF MEMS

Oscillators

µmirrors

µbolometers

IJ Heads

Surface MM

AAC, ADI, Epcos, Knowles (Sony), Omron (HF Release for membrane)

ST, Bosch, ADI … (consumer apps)

ST, Bosch, ADI … (consumer apps)

BSAC, Tsinghua U, VTT, Leti (R&D)

Bosch, Freescale (TPMS)

WiSpry

SiTime, Discera

TI

All (Ulis, FLIR, DRS …)

Ink cavity: hp

Bulk MM

AAC, ADI, Epcos, Knowles (Sony), Omron, Wet (Omron)/ DRIE for cavity

VTI

Invensense, Sensonor, SSS (bulk DRIE), Epson Toyocom, Matsushita (quartz),

Akustica (but not only)

CMOSMEMS

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Memsic, ADI (but not only)

ADI (but not only)

All (AKM, Yamaha, Aichi MI, Honeywell …)

VTI

Nozzles: hp, Canon, hp

X Fab

hp, Canon, Seiko Epson, Kodak, Silverbroo ke: Above IC

Baolab

Sand9

Above IC for All

Above IC for All

Si µfluidics

Ion Torrent

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20 Key Technologies & Research Areas Relative Impact on SSL cost of ownership Manufacturing Cost Alternative substrates #2: Si

Epitaxy: Cluster tools - New Epi Technologies

Large Diameters Substrates: 4”, 6”, 8”

Wafer Level Packaging: Silicon TSC, Wafer Level Optics

Lithography: Dedicated tools, Higher Throughput Testing and Binning: Wafer Level, Higher throughputs

Die Singulation Increased throughputs and yields

Contacts/Electrodes: Transparent contacts/Electrode materials and patterns

Phosphors: Conversion efficiency, Color Rendering – “IP free” phosphors

Substrate Separation: Laser Lift Off, other separation techniques

Encapsulation Materials and Optics: Ageing and optical properties

Contacts & Electrodes: p to n layer VIAS

Mirrors: Resonant Cavities

Mirrors: Improve reflectivity/electrical properties Surface Texturation: Patterned substrates / Roughening

*: Efficiency, Lumen/package, Color Rendering, Lifetime…

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Epitaxy – MOCVD: Higher yields and Throughputs - Improved Material quality

Phosphors: Quantum dots Phosphors Alternative substrates #1: GaN, ZnO, Si, Engineered substrates

Thermal Management: New materials for packaging Surface Texturation: Photonic and Quasi Photonic Crystals

Current Droop / Green Gap / LED Structures

LED Performance*

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MEMS EXAMPLE

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What is Mems? • Mems is « just » a way to put into silicon existing non silicon functions…: – From bulky mechanical gyro to silicon gyroscope – From ECM to silicon microphone – …

• … And to take full benefit of the silicon manufacturing infrastructure: – – – –

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Miniaturization Batch manufacturing Wafer size scalability …

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Mems business in a few words •

The MEMS market is on a growing curve again and many changes are happening on the technical side, business model side and supply chain side. – – –

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20% CAGR in units 13% CAGR in revenues To become a $21 billion market by 2017.

Every year brings new business to the MEMS landscape. – –

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Today, combo sensors are reshuffling the cards in the motion sensing business But the MEMS market is still very fragmented, with a number of high volume MEMS applications still limited today

However, a whole range of new MEMS devices has now reached the market and new “emerging MEMS” devices are coming as well: –

Some of them have the possibility to ramp up to large volumes quickly: those that can be applied to mobile devices (RF MEMS switches, oscillators, auto-focus…) Both sensors (humidity, touchscreen,…) and actuators (switches, energy harvesting…) are driving future growth In addition to those emerging MEMS, growth of the MEMS market will come from existing sensors that are expanding into new market spaces, sometimes using new types of integration: e.g. pressure sensors for consumer.

– –

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Companies have totally different strategies to address such business… © 2012•

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ADVANCED PACKAGING EXAMPLE

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Evolution of advanced packaging: Mixing the technologies… Camera module Packaging Power module Packaging

Applicative Packaging

I G B T

S B D

Substrate Baseplate Thermal grease

 Moving to high performance, low cost, application driven packaging techniques

Heatsink

LED Packaging MEMS Packaging PoP / PiP

SiP

3DIC

Advanced Packaging

3D WLP

QFP PGA

WB BGA

WL CSP

DIP

LCC

1970s © 2012•

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SOT / TSOP 1980s

FC BGA / CSP

1990s

2.5D interposer

FO PoP

FO WLP

FO SiP

QFN

Embedded SiP

2000s

2010s

 Moving to highperformance, high-density, low cost, collective wafer-levelpackaging technique standards

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“Mid-end” Infrastructure Outlook by 2017

3D TECHNOLOGIES

~ $40B

“Mid-end”

Value flow

PACKAGE (BE)

DIE (FE)

Value flow IC Design

2000 - 2012

2005 - 2017 Flip-chip wafer bumping, WLCSP, 3D WLP, WLOptics, 2.5D Silicon & Glass interposers, 3DIC with TSV

> $10B

~ $40B

MOTHERBOARD & SUBSTRATE

Value flow 2011 - 2017

Embedded die in PCB & 3D Glass / Silicon interposers

> $1.5B

OEM / EMS

~ $400B

(STACK DIE, POP, SiP)

IDMs Fabless WAFER FOUNDRY © 2012•

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ASSEMBLY SUBCON

PCB

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Who is taking benefit of this new business? • Several players of the supply chain are looking at this business opportunity: – Independant companies like CWLCSP, Jcap, Teramikos… – Large players like TSMC from the front end business but also ASE from the back end fields – PCB / PWB houses are moving to embedded die package with assembly capabilities (Epcos-TDK, Fujikura and Taiyo-Yuden…)

• The re-use of front end semiconductor process for packaging services is clearly a game changing trends: – TSMC is willing to get the most added value part of the advanced packaging fields and be a one stop shop for its customers – ASE is using it to cut the competition in back end and strengthen its position of leader – Independant companies are trying to find a profitable business…

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THE THIRD WAVE: HOW MODULE MANUFACTURING IS BECOMING THE FUTURE OF DEVICE MAKERS.

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EXAMPLE - LED BUSINESS

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LED business trends

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LED Lighting Supply Chain Overview • Assembly of LED package(s) on Printed Circuit Board (PCB) • Integration of optic, heat sink / thermal management, IC driver / power supply and case

Die / Chip

Packaged LED

Module

• Encapsulation and deposition of contact • Coating with phosphor (for white LED)

Lamp / Light Engine

Luminaire

• Enhancement of the lighting fixture by attaching external lighting control units

• Combination of module with additional optics, heat sink and case © 2012•

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System / Solution

Consumers

Material / Substrate

• Combination of module and ballast with a fixture (additional optics, heat sink and case)

Distributors

• Growth of epilayer on wafer • Structuring and doping of the substrate

LED Lighting Value Chain Trends - Value Transfer Based on the model “LED for Display Applications”, standardization should also occur for LEDs used in General Lighting applications inducing manufacturing commoditization and value transfer along the value chain.

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Profit Distribution & Value Transfer

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Commoditization / Standardization

Material / Substrate

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Die / Chip

Packaged LED

• Commoditization of chip manufacturing • New entrants should also professionalize the epitaxy process

Module

Lamp / Light Engine

• Adding functionality should increase margins

• New Asian players should enter the business, especially for low- and middle-end applications • Despite commoditization, profit can stay high for high-end applications

3%

10%

40%

30%

7%

Luminaire

System / Solution

• Add functionality • New designing of fixtures and improvement of system size should increase margin

10%

Today In the Future

Value will go upstream on the value chain!!! → To LED module and LED-based lighting products levels

THE FOURTH WAVE: A SUPPLY CHAIN EVOLUTION TO MAXIMIZE THE ADDED VALUE AND PROVIDE COMPLETE SERVICES TO CUSTOMERS.

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Supply chain evolution • This wave is more the last impact of all the changes we have seen: – Downstream and upstream integration can really provide a stronger added value, which is new in the semiconductor business

• Due to the end of the Moore’s law for more than 90% of the semiconductor manufacturers, new strategies have to be found in order to maintain a competitive advantage, evolution along the supply chain is one of the possibility.

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Times are changing… • Questions?

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