Dr. Gerhard Knies Retired particle physicist DESERTEC, Initiator, Head of Desertec Think Tank DESERTEC University Network, Deputy Chairman Viable World Design Network, Chairman [email protected]

Europa 1945: Battlefields and Borders

Europa 2000

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Europe since ~20 years: interconnecting roads without boarders! http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/60/International_E_Road_Network_green.png

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Level of development and population growth

Development low Population growth HIGH

Development HIGH Population growth low

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

Biocapacity 1 Earth

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

How 1.

can 10 billion people live together on planet Earth? 2.

3.

can a viable world function?

can we build a viable world for 10bn humans on Earth?

Dr. Gerhard Knies Retired particle physicist DESERTEC, Initiator, Head of Desertec Think Tank DESERTEC University Network, Deputy Chairman Viable World Design Network, Chairman [email protected]

How ? 1.

2.

Viability of humanity as a species is in conflict with 2 human abilities/habits 1.

to grow, and to outgrow the planetary limits

2.

of pushing away (bulldozers) the natural world instead of integrating into it.

Human ecological demands (global ecological footprint), must be reduced into planetary boundaries and Earth’s ecological capacities. 10 bn people on a planet for < 3 bn will be hell! By building accomodadion for World Population must end to grow: 10 bn humans on earth we reduce all countries => developed countries (=developed prosperity for all) Its ecological carrying capacity

1.

3.

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2.

The individual ecological footprint must become appropriately low:

3.

Our answer: create clean & developed prosperity for all by clean energy!

create clean prosperity

(= prosperity with low footprint)

Because 2°C limit humanity has 40 years left to implement this solution. 1.

Transition must be organized, trial&error may be too slow

2.

Nations must act as team HUMANITY. Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

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1.

What is “global human ecological footprint” ?

2.

What is planetary eco-(logical)-capacity?

3.

What is a “viable world” ?

Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

What is global human ecological footprint ? All area that humans occupy on Earth for their living! + all area needed to digest human-made garbage ! 1. Space for shelter, accomodation, streets etc 2. Wood from Forests

Biocapacity

3. Fish 4. Meat 5. Vegetables

ocean acidi.

6. Absorption of CO2

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area unit: Global Giga Hectare

Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

atmosphere climate chge.

Why worry? • 10 bn on a planet for 3 will be hell!

• Can we build a planet for 10 bn? • What can G7 do to build a planet for 10 bn ?

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

Let us try to build a viable world for 10 billion 1. 2°C and carbon footprint limit:

 close fossil fuel deposits  build clean power source

2. Limit population growth:  bring developed prosperity to all humans

3. The 1.2 bn people in high developed: 1.

Reduce carbon footprint but keep prosperity high

2.

 change to clean energy  clean prosperity

4. The 7-9 bn people in less developed 1. 2. 3.

Raise prosperity (HDI), but keep carbon footprint low  clean energy & clean prosperity Special cooperation of least and high developed countries

5.

A viable world for 10 billion is not miracle or mystery, it can be built – if there is enuf clean energy and the political will.

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

WBGU: with 67% probability in 2050, equal emission rights per person, population as in 2010

World Reserves: 3100 Gt CO2 (2014) CO2 emission limit for 2°C: World-wide: Annual emissions:

600 Gt CO2 (2014), 19% 33 Gt CO2

Remaining time for exit 19 years (full emission) 38 years (linear declining emissions)

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3. Problem: excessive fuels reserves ! 81% need to be locked. 4 regions each of which alone can overrun the 2°C limit of 600 Gt CO2! 81% of global reserves have to stay in ground. global governance/management required

regional reserves larger than 2° budget

600 Gt CO2 ~ 7200EJ

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

How can a viable world function? Ban/seal 81% of fossil fuel deposits

Global governance Fossil fuel deposit guard

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

What is a viable world? the ‚safe operating space‘ as viability square

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0f/Human_welfare_and_ecological_footprint.jpg

mDevelopment HIGH

2015 viable viable world space world space 2100

footprint (too) HIGH  shrinking population

development LOW  footprint LOW growing population

EC 2005, 5,7bn EC 2015, 7,2bn

EC 2100, 10bn 15

Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

Where does human foot print FP come from ? Eco-capacity : EC=12 Giga hectares (Gha)

FP 2015: 19 Gha = 1,6 Erden 2050 = 34 (31) Gha =(>) 2.9 (2.6) Erden (Moore et al, Ecological Indicators 16(2012) 3-10

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

How to build a viable world ? http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0f/Human_welfare_and_ecological_footprint.jpg

Eco-parasites & eco-victims  viable world teams as m m team viability coalitions FP>EC +FP80% of large FP comes from CO2

EC 2005, 5,7bn EC 2015, 7,2bn

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

Rapid way to a viable world for 10 billion: World as CONDOMINIUM for 200 nations, instead as BATTLEFIELD for super powers Clean energy alliance of high+low developed countries HDC(GNP > 20,000€): LLDC(GNP < 2,000€) Viable World Fund: climate &development Eco- & national security for 10 bn people

global partnership for 1. rapid global climate protection

2. clean prosperity for all 3. North-South justice 4. fairness between generations Build a viable world for all from 1 week/year military expenses

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How much clean power for 10 bn people ? 1.

2.

3.

4.

2050 average power per person

2050 electro mobility + heat´chill per person

World population 2050: (9 -) 10 billion people

Capacity for 2000 full load hours/y (wind, solar)

80 PWh/y

40,000 So+Wi GigaWatt

5 MWh/y Data 2006 World OECD USA India Germany

3.1 8.6 12.2 0.9 6.4

3 MWh/y km/person: Germany 2007: person/car Electr./100km:

10,000 13,000 2 20kWh

(+/- 20%)

2012: world:23 PWh/y GERMANY : 0.5 PWh/y World pop: 7.08 bn Av./cap: 3.26 MWh

collectors &turbines globally

40 years, 3GW/day 1000 GW/year Ready for that ?

3 GW/day ~2 bn €/day investment, ~1/3 car industry ~ 1/3 arms insustry

Saving the planet: possible & large task+business case of the decades ahead of us 19

Where to get RE from Desertec

Best solar and best wind regions on earth

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

Is there enough clean power? Solar Power from DESERTS: Economic potential: 3000 PWh/y, 1000 TWh=1 PWh

Wind power, onshore+off-shore : 800 + 200 = 1000 PWh/y Future demand/person 8 MWh/y. Present total (2014): 23 PWh/y Source: Trieb et.al.,DLR, 2009

290 144 PWh/y

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~1100 700

(1PWh= 1000 TWh)

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Total world demand 2050:

80 PWh/y Scenario: 50% deserts: 40 PWh/y collectors/panels for 20,000 GW-el from 550 x 550 km²

~200 ~200

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Solar energy into red square = total world energy consumption (2005)

= 1% of useful deserts distributed over “10,000+” sites 21

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How fast Transition FE  RE for ∆T 40 PWh/y Factor 100 50% of total global electricity

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

PV should reach 20 PW, factor 200 (2**7.6) above now. With same growth rate as now that would take 8 years. But we have 40 years time for the 2°C limit. With further cost reduction PV+stotage will outpace fossil and nuclear by market economy.

CSP 2014

CSP 2004

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

PV learning curve: average annual module price vs. cumulative shipments Annual data, last point:end 2014: 184 GWp/ 0.62 US$/Wp (ITRPV 2015)

Solar CSP

Solar PV

Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing 25

Wind 2013

Clean energy  clean prosperity  VIABLE WORLD = a world with 10 billion people living in a ‚safe operating space‘ 1.

For 2°C limit: Close 80% of fossil fuel reserves within 40 years

2.

Clean prosperity for all: Build clean power of 40,000 GW (so+wi) within 40 years, technically feasible, much cheaper & safer than fossil and nuclear

3.

Viable world for 10 bn: With clean energy no limits to prosperity 1.

developed world:  footprint down & prosperity high

2.

developing world:  prosperity up & footprint low

3.

developing world:  get stable society & demography by high prosperity

4.

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A safe planet for coming generations: 1.

Superpowers’ new role: allies & ‘cheer’-leaders for building a viable world for all. No longer rivals competing & fighting for controlling the world

2.

Nation states’ new role: appreciate global welfare, cooperate to organize planet Earth as living place for people & condominium of nations, instead as battlefield for national privileges & resources.

3.

Globally: Eco-parasites and eco-victims form teams for a viable world. Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

Message to the future generations A viable world for 10 billion people can be built, by 1. making footprint per person small enough by clean energy for all 2. ending further global population growth by clean prosperity (= high human development) for all 3. if nations and peoples behave and cooperate as team Humanity in the epoch of Anthropocene

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Gerhard Knies, Global Youth Summit 2015, Tutzing

Ending population growth by ending under-development => Partnerships High – Least Developed Countries? as designated by the United Nations. Date: 9. Januar 2008, Based on Image:BlankMap-World6, compact.svg with colour applied. Produced by Gabbe, by trivially changing a map originally produced by Canuckguy

High developed GNP > 20 000$ ~ 1 bn people

DESERTEC 1.0

Least/low developed GNP < 2 000$ ~ 1+1 bn people

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Gerhard Knies, SEPA-DESERTEC Giessen 19-Sep-2012