Danske Bank
February 2011
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared solely for use at this presentation. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to be bound by the following limitations. This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Danske Bank A/S (the “Company”), in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation has been prepared solely for use in connection with the presentation of the Company. The information contained in this document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you solely for your information and cannot be distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. It may not be reproduced, redistributed, passed on or published, in whole or in part, to any other person for any purpose. You are required to return this document at the conclusion of this meeting. Failure to comply with this and the following restrictions may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. None of the Company or any of their respective affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. This presentation is only for persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments and must not be acted or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons (as defined below). Solicitations resulting from this presentation will only be responded to if the person concerned is a Relevant Person. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Neither the presentation nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into United States, its territories or possessions or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States, its territories or possessions, except to qualified institutional buyers as defined in Rule 144A under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or outside the United States in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of the United States securities laws. This document is only being distributed to and is only directed at (i) persons who are outside the United Kingdom or (ii) to investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”) or (iii) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This document must not be acted upon by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Any recipient of this document who is not a relevant person should return it to the Underwriters immediately, not attend the presentation and take no other action.
2
Table of contents
I. Overview of Danske Bank II. Macro Economy III. Financial Performance IV. Funding & Liquidity
3
Danske Bank is a strong Nordic franchise Lending divided by Banking Activity Q4 2010
5.0 million customers 2.4 million active Internet customers
NIR; 3% NO; 9%
IR; 4%
BAL; 1%
SE; 11%
Others; 5%
Finland Market position: Leader Branches: 121 Market share: 12% Market rank: 3 Loan growth (Y/Y): 0%
DK; 58%
FIN; 9%
670 branches in 15 countries* 21,522 full-time employees Market cap: DKKm 98,927 Northern Ireland Market position: Leader Branches: 82 Market share: 19-30% Market rank: 1-2 Loan growth (Y/Y): 1%
Market position: Branches: Market share: Market rank: Loan growth (Y/Y):
Norway Market position: Challenger Branches: 41 Market share: 5% Market rank: 3 Loan growth (Y/Y): 6%
Estonia Market position: Challenger Branches: 17 Market share: 10% Market rank: 4 Loan growth (Y/Y):** -11%
Sweden Market position: Challenger Branches: 49 Market share: 6% Market rank: 5 Loan growth (Y/Y): 15%
Latvia Market position: Challenger Branches: 4 Market share: 2% Market rank: 12 Loan growth (Y/Y):** -11%
Denmark Market position: Leader Branches: 315 Market share: 24% Market rank: 1 Loan growth (Y/Y): 0%
Ireland Challenger 28 3% 6 -8%
* Excluding agricultural centres in Denmark. ** Loan growth represents total loan growth for Baltic countries. Note: Market share represents market share of lending.
Lithuania Market position: Challenger Branches: 13 Market share: 7% Market rank: 5 Loan growth (Y/Y):** -11%
4
Credit exposure increased by 3% Y/Y Credit exposure from lending activity, end-Q4 2010 (DKK 2,364 bn, including DKK 1,848 bn in lending and repos) Central and local governments 7%
Subsidised housing companies 5% Banks 8%
Personal customers 37% Commercial property 10% Construction, engineering and building products 1% Diversified financials 8%
Other industrials 7% Transportation and shipping 3%
Consumer discretionary and consumer staples 9%
Other financials 3% Energy and utilities 2%
5
Danske Bank is rated by the three major international rating agencies
Negative outlook
Negative outlook
Stable outlook
Short term
Long term
Short term
Long term
Short term
Long term
P-1
Aaa
A-1+
AAA
F1+
AAA
P-2
Aa1
A-1
AA+
F1
AA+
P-3
Aa2
A-2
AA
F2
AA
Aa3
A-3
AA-
F3
AA-
A1
B
A+
B
A+
A2
C
A
C
A
A3
D
A-
D
A-
Baa1
BBB+
BBB+
Baa2
BBB
BBB
Baa3
BBB-
BBB-
…
…
…
Ca
D
D
6
Table of contents
I. Overview of Danske Bank II. Macro Economy III. Financial Performance IV. Funding & Liquidity
7
Economic recovery is improving, but is still uneven
GDP, 2009-12E (Growth Y/Y)
% 8
Public finances
Denmark Sweden Ireland Finland
Gross public Budget bal. Sovereign rating debt % of GDP % of GDP & outlook (S&P) 2010 2011 Denmark 44.3 -4.8 AAA/Stable Sweden 42.2 -1.4 AAA/Stable Norway 33.1 13.0 AAA/Stable Finland 49.0 -1.5 AAA/Stable Ireland* 94.2 -9.4 A-/Negative watch Euroland 84.1 -5.1 -
Baltics
* Ex one-off bank bailout costs. Source: Danske Research and Nordic Outlook December 2010.
4 0 -4 -8
Norway Euroland
-12 -16
2009
2010
2011E
2012E
Source: Danske Research and Nordic Outlook December 2010.
8
Signs of housing market stabilising Danish house prices by regions Region
Prices Change since peaked peak (%) Copenhagen Q3 2006 -24.9 Zealand Q3 2007 -21.6 South Denmark Q1 2008 -3.8 Central Jutland Q4 2007 -1.8 North Jutland Q2 2010 -1.4 Denmark overall Q2 2007 -12.5
Change in Q310 (%) 1.4 0.4 -0.6 1.3 -1.4 0.6
* Preview Q410 (%)
Correlation between house prices and consumption in Denmark
Price per sq m 16,000
200
12,000
180
0.4
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011E 2012E
140
Source: Danske Research.
Property prices 15
Ireland
300 200
*Q4 2010 is an estimate
Correlation between unemployment and foreclosures in Denmark
%
400
160
4,000
* Leading indicator, based on monthly statistics from “home” that cover about 1/3 of the market.
500
Consumption
House prices
8,000
Source: Realkreditforeningen.
Index 1996 = 100
DKK bn
No. 2,000
Unemployment
Norway UK 10 Sweden Finland Denmark 5
1,500
10-year yield
1,000 500
100 Foreclosures
Source: Danske Research.
Source: Danske Research.
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
0
1985
0
1980
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
9
Table of contents
I. Overview of Danske Bank II. Macro Economy III. Financial Performance IV. Funding & Liquidity
10
Earnings recovery continues as impairments decline Profit before tax
No dividend payment for Q4 2010
•
Negotiations with Danish government to prepay hybrid capital
•
Plan for a rights issue of about DKK 20 bn in H1 to finance the prepayment
•
Liquidity remained strong after the discontinuation of the general state guarantee
0 -1,000
Q4 2010 Q3 2010*
-2,000
Ireland
•
1,000
N. Ireland
Declining impairment charges
Finland
•
Baltics
Cost management continues to deliver results
2,000
Sweden
•
(Q4 2010)
DKK m
Norway
Net profit of DKK 3.7 bn in 2010
Denmark
•
* Denmark adjusted for Bank Package I (guarantee fee & loan impairment charges).
11
Declining expenses and impairments more than offset lower income DKK m Net interest income Net fee income Net trading income Other income Net income from insurance business Total income Expenses* Profit bef. loan imp. charges
2009 27,524 7,678 18,244 3,083 2,810 59,339 28,907 30,432
2010 23,843 8,510 7,921 3,857 2,146 46,277 26,010 20,267
Loan impairment charges
25,677
13,817
54
3,083
2,982
97
Profit before tax
4,755
6,450
136
1,870
1,448
77
Tax
3,042
2,786
92
983
377
38
Net profit for the period
1,713
3,664
214
887
1,071
121
40.7
50.7
124
48.9
57.7
118
9.5
10.1
106
9.8
10.1
103
834
844
101
843
844
100
Total loans ex repos (DKK bn)
1,670
1,680
101
1,680
1,680
100
Deposits (ex repos) & issued RD bonds (DKK bn)
1,504
1,529
102
1,487
1,529
103
Total assets (DKK bn)
3,098
3,214
104
3,361
3,214
96
Cost/income ratio (%) ex integr.,GW & state guar.fee Core tier 1 capital ratio (%) Risk-weighted assets (DKK bn)
Index Q3 2010 Q4 2010 87 5,840 6,069 111 2,069 2,325 43 1,930 795 125 703 1,013 76 705 685 78 11,247 10,887 90 6,294 6,457 67 4,953 4,430
Index 104 112 41 144 97 97 103 89
* Includes state guarantee fees of DKK 625 m per quarter from Q4 2008 until Q3 2010.
12
Net interest income fell in 2010, but rose in Q4
Annual net interest income DKK m
Quarterly net interest income
Y/Y 13 %
30,000
DKK m
Y/Y 10 % Q/Q 4 %
7,500
*
*
*
*
* 6,500
20,000
*
*
*
*
5,500
10,000
S-T interest rate sensitivity: 25 bp = DKK 900 m
Q4 10
Q3 10
Q2 10
Q1 10
Q4 09
Q3 09
2010
Q2 09
2009
Q1 09
2008
Q4 08
4,500
0
* White segment is the net cost of government hybrid capital.
13
Net fee income up on strong performance at Danske Capital
DKK m
Annual net fee income
Quarterly net fee income DKK m
10,000
2,500
2,000
7,500
1,500 5,000 1,000 2,500 500
0
0 2008 Activity-based fees Portfolio-based fees
2009
2010
Y/Y 8 % Y/Y 12 %
Q4 09
Q1 10
Activity-based fees Portfolio-based fees
Q2 10
Q3 10
Y/Y 2 % Y/Y 17 %
Q4 10 Q/Q 10 % Q/Q 14 %
14
Net trading income at normal level despite low activity and difficult markets in Q4 Breakdown of net trading income DKK m
2008
2009
2010
Trading activities
7,361
16,929
5,812
1,791
2,013
1,665
1,420
714
Group Treasury*
-3,996
123
715
-152
119
692
99
-195
398
186
346
24
75
100
54
117
3,763
17,238
6,873
1,663
2,207
2,457
1,573
636
826
539
508
20
96
159
168
85
Other trading activities
1,487
467
540
278
76
201
189
74
Net trading income
6,076
18,244
7,921
1,961
2,379
2,817
1,930
795
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
Institutional banking (non-Nordic) Danske Markets in total BA Denmark
Value at Risk (DKK bn)**
Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010
* Q2 10 includes a capital gain of DKK 659 m owing to merger of PBS Holding and Nordito AS. ** 99% confidence level, 10-day horizon. Calculated as an average of daily VaR values during the period.
15
Impairment charges cut in half in 2010 and under DKK 3 bn in Q4 Loan impairment charges
Quarterly loan impairment charges
DKK m
DKK m
bp
30,000
10,000
200
7,500
150
25,000 Total loan impairment charges in basis points
20,000 15,000 10,000
5,000
100
2,500
50
5,000
0 0
Total impairment charges Collective impairment charges
2010
Q4 10
Q3 10
Q2 10
Q1 10
Q4 09
Q3 09
-50
Q2 09
-2,500
Q1 09
2009
Q4 08
2008
0
16
SMEs dominate impairment charges in 2010
Impairments by customer segment
Net exposures in rating categories 10 and 11
- Charges on personal loans are increasing
- Exposure in cat. 11 increased due to partial write-offs in cat. 10
DKK m
DKK bn 40
7,000
Rating category 11
30
5,000
20
3,000
Rating category 10
10 +9%
1,000 0 Q209
-1,000 Q209
Q309
SMEs
Q409
Large corp.
Q110
Q210
Financials
Q310
Q410
Personal
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Rating category 11 (customers in default) Rating category 10 (financial difficulty, not in default)
Personal customers Q4 2010 includes a 0.6 bn DKK transfer of collective impairments on investment housing loans from SMEs
17
Nordic impairments: Stable, except that Denmark is still struggling DKK m 5,000
*Acc. imp. DKK 19,293 m - Individual 172 bp - Collective 22 bp
Denmark, 58% of Group’s lending
112 bp
114 bp 82 bp
2,899
3,319
87 bp
4-quarter moving average
86 bp
2,000
2,790 2,168
2,097
1,000
111 bp
53 bp (33 bp **)
650 450 250
46 bp
2,195 1,343
1,157
137 bp 91 bp
895 554
385
32 bp
50
- 28 bp
125
16 bp
64
22 bp 87
-111
0 bp 1
-150
0
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
400 DKK m
*Acc. imp. DKK 1,253 m - Individual 60 bp - Collective 5 bp
Sweden,11% of Group’s lending
300
*Acc. imp. DKK 2,664 m - Individual 156 bp - Collective 12 bp
216 bp
850
4,000 3,000
DKK m 1,050 Finland, 9% of Group’s lending
68 bp
400 DKK m
*Acc. imp. DKK 1,512 m - Individual 89 bp - Collective 5 bp
Norway, 9% of Group’s lending
300
77 bp
55 bp
200
200 297
27 bp
25 bp
297
23 bp
100 115
0
109
-3 bp
-12
103
-2 bp
-10
5 bp
24
11 bp
52
100
67
210
27 bp
102
0
8 bp
32
1 bp
3
4 bp
-3 bp
18
-11
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 -100
18 bp
-100 * Accumulated impairments at the end of period in DKK m and as basis points of total lending. ** Excluding payments to Financial Stability.
18
Other impairments: Northern Ireland and Ireland remain the most problematic DKK m 750
500
Northern Ireland, 3% of Group’s lending
358 bp
*Acc. imp. DKK 3,078 m - Individual 537 bp - Collective 53 bp 356 bp
296 bp
445
419
371
127 bp 96 bp
164
4-quarter moving average
1,600
409
464
683 bp
883 bp
633 bp 620 bp
691 bp 561 bp
800
1,473
1,647 1,346
1,232
1,187
1,089
1,020
254
1,213
120
0
0 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
DKK m 1,200
*Acc. imp. DKK 2,892 m - Individual 988 bp - Collective 228 bp Baltics, 1% of Group’s lending 1,027 bp
839
400 559
714
DKK m 5,000
Other Activities
*Acc. imp. DKK 3,513m - Individual 441 bp - Collective 52 bp
Incl. Danske Markets, 5% of Group’s lending
3,000
914 bp
749 bp
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
4,000
1,173 bp
800
613 211bp
0
736 bp
*Acc. imp. DKK 9,564 m - Individual 1,244 bp - Collective 116 bp
576 bp
185 bp
250
Ireland, 4% of Group’s lending
303 bp
4-quarter moving average
279 bp
DKK m 2,400
138
80 bp 51
-29 bp -18
60 bp 36
2,000
577 bp
1,000
1,640
0
467 bp
317 bp
771
36 bp
871
75
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
-69 bp -124
-377 bp
-700
143 bp
229
23 bp 41
-1,000
-400
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 * Accumulated impairments at the end of period in DKK m and as basis points of total lending.
19
Tier 1 ratio improved in 2010; rights issue planned for H1 2011, possible prepayment of hybrid capital
% 20
Capital ratios: CRD/Basel II
•
Negotiations with the Danish government to prepay the 24 bn of hybrid capital in May 2012
•
Rights issue of DKK 20 bn planned for first half of 2011 *
•
AP Møller and Realdania support the rights issue
17.7%
16
14.8% 12.9%
12
10.7% 10.1%
8 4 0 Q4 08
Q4 09
Total capital ratio Tier 1 ratio Core tier 1 ratio plus convertible hybrid Solvency need Core tier 1 ratio
Q4 10
* This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of offers to purchase or subscribe for, securities in the United States. The securities referred to herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered, exercised or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from registration requirements. This notice is issued pursuant to Rule 135c of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
20
Outlook for 2011: Recovery continues Macroeconomic recovery continues, but stable short-term rates and volumes keep NII under pressure Banking activities remain robust, but still difficult conditions in some markets Focus on costs will continue, and costs are expected to decline, partly because of the end of Bank Package I Danica’s income is likely to be lower The performance of Danske Markets and Danske Capital is highly dependent on market developments Impairments continue to trend down but are likely to remain high in Ireland, Northern Ireland and Denmark
21
Table of contents
I. Overview of Danske Bank II. Macro Economy III. Financial Performance IV. Funding & Liquidity
22
Limited funding needed in 2011, partly frontloaded in 2010
DKK bn 200
New funding, 2008-11
Funding sources
- Estimated funding needed in 2011: DKK 70 bn 19 bn already raised
- Shift towards long-term funding sources
%
40 Q4 2010
Issued funding until end 2010 Estimated funding needed
2010
2011
Short-term funding
Shareholders' equity
2009
Subordinated debt
2008
Long-term bonds
0 Covered bonds
0
Mortgage finance (match-funded)
10
Deposits
50
Short-term bonds
20
Repo
100
Q4 2008
Credit inst. (ex CB)
30
Central banks
150
Long-term funding
23
Well-diversified funding position
Central banks, 4% Repos, 6%
Equity, 4% Deposits, 33%
•
57% deposits and fully match-funded Danish mortgage bonds (net)
•
Long-term bonds: DKK 184 bn
•
Issued covered bonds: DKK 120 bn
•
Termination of state guarantee at endSeptember has not changed the funding market.
•
Total borrowing increased by DKK 10 bn in Q4 2010
Banks, net, 5%
S-T bonds, 7%
L-T bonds, 8%
Subordinated debt, 3% Covered bonds, 4% Match-funded DK mortgage bonds, 24%
24
Funding in 2010: Completed with long duration and without guarantees •
In 2010 Danske Bank issued bonds for DKK 51 bn covering more than the estimated long-term funding needed (DKK 30 bn)
•
59% of the issuance was covered bonds and 41% was senior debt
•
Longest maturity: 16 years
•
Weighted average maturities: – – –
All issues: 6.8 years Covered bonds: 8.8 years Senior debt: 4.2 years
Issues by type and currency Issue type Covered bonds
Senior debt
Total
Currency EUR NOK CHF EUR USD GBP Other
DKK bn 26 2 1 12 4 3 2 51
25
Strong loan-to-deposits ratio and liquidity position
Loan-to-deposit gap (DKK bn) and ratio (%) DKK bn
12-month liquidity* %
Moody’s Financial Strength
DKK bn
400
125
450
300
120
300 End-Q4 2009
200
115
150 End-Q4 2010
100
110
0 End-Q4 2008
9 months
6 months
5 months
12 months
Note: Deposits include Realkredit Denmark bonds.
4 months
Loan-to-deposit ratio
2 months
Loan-to-deposit gap
-150
2 months
105 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410
1 month
0
* Main assumptions: No access to capital markets; no refinancing of debt to credit institutions, issued bonds or subordinated capital; and moderate reduction of business activities.
26
The two retail pools Pool D
RETAIL
Pool I
RETAIL
Cover Pool D - Characteristics Pool notional Number of loans Substitution collateral Property type WA LTV WA seasoning WA remaining term Rate type Geographical location OC at cut-off date Number of loans in arrears (>30 days) Current balance in arrears Cut-off date Rating
DKK 32.9 billions (EUR 4.38 billions equivalent) 54.245 DKK 1.0 billions 100% owner-occupied 60% 3.8 years 25.9 years Floating rate 100% Denmark 18.8% 0 DKK 0 millions 10/02/2011 Aaa/AAA/AAA
Cover Pool I - Characteristics Pool notional Number of loans Substitution collateral Property type WA LTV WA seasoning WA remaining term Rate type Geographical location OC at cut-off date Number of loans in arrears (>30 days) Current balance in arrears Cut-off date Rating
DKK 78.2 billions (EUR 10.4 billions equivalent) 99.542 DKK 6.6 billions 74.4% owner-occupied, 25.6% housing cooperatives 60% 3.0 years 36.7 years Floating rate 56.6% Sweden, 43.4% Norway 18.6% 0 DKK 0 millions 10/02/2011 Aaa/AAA/AAA
27
The combined pool COMBINED Cover Pool C - Characteristics Pool notional Number of Loans Number of Borrowers Total Value of Properties Number of Properties Average Loan Size Average Property Value Property Type
WA LTV WA Seasoning WA Remaining Term Rate type Geographical location Number of loans in arrears (>30 days) Current balance in arrears Cut-off date Rating
SEK 27.8 bn (€ 3.2 bn equivalent) 4,550 2,823
Property Type
SEK 65.4 bn (€ 7.4 bn equivalent) 4,071 SEK 6.1 Mill.
Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture 12%
SEK 16.1 Mill. Agricultural, Forestry etc. 12%, Industrial 20%, Coorperative Housing 7%, Rental Housing 32%, Retail 29% 58.5 %
Industrial 20%
Cooperative Housing 7%
3.4 years 22.2 years Floating Sweden (100%) 0 SEK 0 millions 31/01/2011
Retail 29% Rental Housing 32%
AAA/AAA
28
www.danskebank.com/ir
29
Danske Bank’s funding team Steen Blaafalk Tel.: + 45 45 14 63 60 Senior Executive Vice President E-mail:
[email protected]
Peter Holm Senior Vice President
Tel.: + 45 45 12 84 85 E-mail:
[email protected]
Claus Jensen Chief Funding Manager
Tel.: +45 45 12 84 83 E-mail:
[email protected]
Knud Erik Kristensen Chief Funding Manager
Tel.: +45 45 12 84 86 E-mail:
[email protected]
Mads Holm Senior Funding Manager
Tel.: +45 45 13 09 85 E-mail:
[email protected]
Andreas Hammarbro Ligaard Senior Funding Manager
Tel: 45 14 88 81 E-mail:
[email protected]
Mette Ingeman Pedersen Chief Analyst
Tel.: + 45 45 12 85 14 E-mail:
[email protected]
30
Appendix
Lending margins under pressure as competition grows Quarterly lending margins Q2 2009 – Q4 2010 (loan stock)
% 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 Denmark*
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Northern Ireland
Ireland
Baltics
* Including Realkredit Danmark.
34353532
Deposit margins are benefiting from increasing short-term rates Quarterly deposit margins Q2 2009 – Q4 2010 (deposit stock)
% 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 -0.25 Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Northern Ireland
Ireland
Baltics
33
Credit exposure to commercial property and construction segments
DKK bn Denmark Finland Sweden Norway Northern Ireland Ireland Baltics Other Total Gross exp. subject to individual imp.testing Individual impairment charges Portion from BA Ireland
Commercial property 110.0 15.6 58.8 32.8 9.4 15.6 2.0 1.1 245.3 33.8 11.3
Portion from developers 0.9 0.5 0.2 2.1 3.0 4.8 0.7 0.1 12.3
Construction and building materials 12.4 7.1 4.9 2.4 4.0 3.2 0.4 1.8 36.3
Sector in total 122.5 22.7 63.8 35.2 13.4 18.8 2.4 2.8 281.6
6.6 2.8
40.4 14.1 6.5
34
Danish agriculture sector pressured by lower property and output prices Other 14% Agriculture 24%
Mixed operations 6%
Grocery trade 14%
Cattle breeding 22%
Exposure to agriculture Realkredit Danmark Banking Activities Denmark Other business units Agriculture Agriculture LTV, Realkredit Danmark Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q3 2010 Q4 2010
DKK bn 45 11 13 69 % 46 64 71 73
Pig breeding 21%
35
Consensus 2011 2011 (DKK millions)
Low
Average
High
23,929
24,600
26,029
Net fee income
8,344
8,597
9,086
Net trading income
7,138
7,996
8,932
Other income
2,862
3,284
3,848
Net income from insurance business
1,400
1,842
2,550
Total income
44,699
46,291
48,373
Total expenses
24,866
24,024
22,406
Profit before loan impairment charges
21,009
22,267
24,339
Loan impairment charges
10,372
7,396
5,415
Profit before tax
13,523
14,871
18,589
Tax
5,587
4,287
3,516
Net profit for the year
8,122
10,584
13,002
26
4
0
8,096
10,580
13,002
11.7
15.2
18,6
Net interest income
Attributable to minority interests Net profit after minorities Earnings per share (DKr)
Contributors: •ABG •Alm. Brand Markets •Arctic Securities •Autonomous •Bank of America/Merrill Lynch •Carnegie •Citigroup •Danske Markets •Deutsche Bank •Handelsbanken •JP Morgan •Jyske Bank •Nomura •Nykredit Markets •SEB Enskilda •Societé Generale •Swedbank •UBS Updated on February 1, 2011
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Danske Bank Group Covered Bond Universe Legislation and history behind three business lines
• • • • • • • •
Covered Bond issuer since 1851 Based on Danish legislation Specialized Mortgage Bank Fully owned subsidiary in Danske Bank Group Only loans from Denmark Follows the “Specific Balance Principle”= Fully match funding Funding via daily tap issues in DKK through the Danish Market AAA rating
• Covered Bond issuer since 2007 • Based on Danish legislation • Loans from the Groups banking activities in Norway and Sweden • Issued directly on the balance sheet • Multiple Cover Pool set-up • Full recourse to Danske Bank • Follows the “General Balance Principle” • Funding through EUR benchmarks and PP issues in multiple currencies • € 25bn Global Covered Bond Programme • AAA programme rating
• • • • • • • • • • •
Sampo Housing Loan Bank (SHLB) Specialized Mortgage Bank Covered Bond issuer since 2005 Based on Finnish Legislation Fully owned subsidiary in the Danske Bank Group Support mechanism from Sampo Bank plc Only residential loans from Finland Full recourse to SHLB Funding through benchmarks and PP issues in EUR. € 5bn Medium Term Covered Note Programme AAA programme rating
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Covered Bonds is a valuable funding tool DKK bn
Eligible loans in the D, I & C pool
120.000 D pool
100.000
I pool C pool
80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
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www.danskebank.com/ir Danske Bank’s Investor Relations website has a sub-section dedicated to debt investors The section contains detailed information about Danske Bank’s: Funding strategy Ratings Debt issues Covered Bonds Securitisation
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