Danske Bank Winter Seminar Peter Kondrup, VP Investor Relations
Agenda Group overview and strategy Regional update Commercial Update
The Carlsberg Group today No. 4
largest international brewer
500
beer brands
No. 1
in Eastern Europe
No. 2
in Northern & Western Europe
119,000,000 hl. of beer sold in 2011
+17% EBIT growth (CAGR) from 2007 to 2011
+9% EPS growth (CAGR) from 2007 to 2011
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Transformational changes since 2000... Beer volume development 160
137
140
137
140
127
120
115 101
100
93
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
82
80
72
69
60
57
40
1 1
1 0
2 0
0 9
2 0
0 8
2 0
0 7
2 0
0 6
2 0
0 5
2 0
0 4
2 0
0 3
2 0
0 2
2 0
2 0
2 0
0 1
20
Value management Brand portfolio activation and scoping Step change innovations Business process standardization Next level group efficiency Back-end centralization and integration Winning people Corporate Social Responsibility
● S&N acquisition & integration ● Accelerate efficiencies and execute synergies ● Drive revenue growth
● Acquisition of 100% of Carlsberg Breweries ● Excellence programs ● Establishment of Carlsberg Breweries
2000
2005
2010
2015 … ● Structure ● Operations
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Carlsberg regions – a good mix WE
EE
ASIA
GROUP
2011
% of total beer volume
42
40
18
49
39
12
2011
% of EBIT
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2009-2011 financial achievements Total volume m. hl. Pro rata 135.7
137.9
Net revenue DKKbn
EBIT
DKKbn
63.6 59.4
9.4
9.8
Average trade working capital % of net revenue 5.7%
1.9%
2009
CAGR
2011
+0.8%
2009
2011
+3.5%
2009
2011
+2.2%
2009
2011
-3.8pp
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Agenda Group overview and strategy Regional update Commercial Update
Western Europe – Continued profit improvements Operating profit (DKKbn)
Operating profit margin 20%
6.000
5.000 15% 4.000
10%
3.000
2.000 5% 1.000
0%
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Company accounts
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Business standardisation •
An enabler to further efficiency and transparency - A vital part of further supply chain integration
•
Standardising in a balanced way - Covers the common parts of the value chain in different market models
•
Clear strategy fully aligned with all other group initiatives
- Greater level of cross functionality - Greater cross border alignment •
Roll-out started in Switzerland in May 2011
•
A few examples:
- From 800 different IT systems to 200 - From 3,000 operational reports to 180 - From 323 order taking reports to 23 - From 15 different ways of naming the same customer to 1 Page 9
Supply chain integration will drive flexibility and reduce costs
Today
Future
Country A
Region Country Sales A
Sales
Country Sales B Country B Sales
Central supply org
Country Sales C
Country Sales D
Country C
Country Sales … Sales
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The Eastern European market leader
RUSSIA BELARUS*
(1 brewery, Minsk) Market position: No. 2 2011 market share: 27%
(10 breweries: St. Petersburg, Yaroslavl, Voronezh, Tula, Rostov, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Khabarovsk, Chelyabinsk, Samara) Market position: No. 1 2011 market share: 37%
KAZAKHSTAN
UKRAINE
(3 breweries, Lviv, Kiev, Zaparozhye) Market position: No. 2 2011 market share: 29%
AZERBAIJAN
(1 brewery: Baku) Market position: No. 1 2011 market share: 67%
(1 brewery, Almaty) Market position: No. 2 2011 market share: 39%
Volume break-down 2011 6% 17%
UZBEKISTAN
(1 brewery, Tashkent) Market position: No. 1 2011 market share: 31%
Others Ukraine Russia 77%
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Eastern Europe – volume growth opportunities Per capita beer consumption (litres)
Beer share of throat (% of pure alcohol consumption)
112
70
96
60
80
50
64
40
48
30
32
20
16
10
0
0
Source: Canadean and Carlsberg estimates 12
Strong Russian brand portfolio •
Excellent mix of international, national and regional brands
•
Baltika has 4 of the top ten brands in Russia
Baltika Baltika market segment share position H1 ‘12
Largest brand
Super premium
#1
34%
Tuborg
Premium
#1
37%
Baltika 7
Mainstream
#1
50%
Baltika 3
Lower mainstream
#1
28%
Arsenalnoe
Discount
#1
37%
Bolshaya Kruzhka
Non-beer brands
Source: Nielsen 13
Russian market shares starting to trend upwards Carlsberg Russian market share 40%
39%
38%
37%
36%
35% Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Source: Nielsen retail audit
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Asia – A strongly growing region Beer volumes (m hl)
Operating profit (DKKbn)
25
1.250
20
1.000
15
750
10
500
5
250
0
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Company accounts
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Volume growth opportunities in Asia Per capita beer consumption (litres) 40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Vietnam
Thailand
Taiwan
Sri Lanka
Singapore
Nepal
Malaysia
Laos
India
Hong Kong
China
Cambodia
5
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Asia – footprint Western China* Market share
~ 55-60%
China – Premium beer Market share ~7% Nepal Market share Ownership share
India Market share Ownership share
Sri Lanka Market share Ownership share
Singapore Market share Ownership share
71% 90%
6% 100%
n.a. 17.4%
20% 51%
Laos Market share Ownership share
99% 51%
Hong Kong Market share
19%
Vietnam Market share Ownership share: SEAB Hue Hanoi Brewery Halong Beer & Bev.
34% 60% 100% 16% 31%
Cambodia Market share Ownership share
38% 50%
Malaysia Market share Ownership share
44% 51%
* Please see separate map for ownership share
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Agenda Group overview and strategy Regional update Commercial Update
Rational Carlsberg Brand Portfolio Adjacent categories
International Premium
Carlsberg
International Premium Brands
Local Premium
Flagship
Beer category
Local `Power Brands ’ NB: Selection from Carlsberg Group portfolio of 500 brands
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UEFA EURO 2012: the biggest commercial opportunity for Carlsberg in 2012 TOURNAMENT HIGHLIGHTS • Stadia beer sales up 40% compared to 2008 • 6,688,676 visitors to tournament fan zones • Unprecedented television audiences for the final resulting in higher visibility of Carlsberg perimeter advertising • Over 1,000,000 cups of beer sold at half-time during the Final
• 20 tonnes of plastic cups recycled in Polish fan zones • 375,000 pledge to drink responsibly and wear the 'Drink Responsibly’ wristbands
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Tuborg – Open for more MUSIC IS IN TUBORG’S DNA Sponsor of music festivals all over Europe EXPORTED TO MORE THAN 70 COUNTRIES And available since 1888 DENMARK’S LEADING BEER BRAND And continuing to grow internationally - especially in Eastern Europe and Asia
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Kronenbourg 1664 A SIP OF FRANCE genuine lager with French taste traditions EXPORTED TO MORE THAN 60 COUNTRIES and still expanding…
MARKET LEADER FOR HIGHEND PREMIUM BEER a brewing expertise inherited since 1664 SUCCESSFUL EXTENSIONS with Kronenbourg 1664 Blanc flavoured wheat beer
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Q&A
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Forward-looking statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements about the Group’s sales, revenues, earnings, spending, margins, cash flow, inventory, products, actions, plans, strategies, objectives and guidance with respect to the Group's future operating results. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain the words "believe", "anticipate", "expect", "estimate", "intend", "plan", "project", "will be", "will continue", "will result", "could", "may", "might", or any variations of such words or other words with similar meanings. Any such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in such forward-looking statements. Prospective information is based on management’s then current expectations or forecasts. Such information is subject to the risk that such expectations or forecasts, or the assumptions underlying such expectations or forecasts, may change. The Group assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting such forward-looking statements. Some important risk factors that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from those expressed in its forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: economic and political uncertainty (including interest rates and exchange rates), financial and regulatory developments, demand for the Group's products, increasing industry consolidation, competition from other breweries, the availability and pricing of raw materials and packaging materials, cost of energy, production and distribution related issues, information technology failures, breach or unexpected termination of contracts, price reductions resulting from market driven price reductions, market acceptance of new products, changes in consumer preferences, launches of rival products, stipulation of market value in the opening balance sheet of acquired entities, litigation, environmental issues and other unforeseen factors. New risk factors can arise, and it may not be possible for management to predict all such risk factors, nor to assess the impact of all such risk factors on the Group's business or the extent to which any individual risk factor, or combination of factors, may cause results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied on as a prediction of actual results. Page 24