Danske Bank Winter Seminar Peter Kondrup, VP Investor Relations

Danske Bank Winter Seminar Peter Kondrup, VP Investor Relations Agenda Group overview and strategy Regional update Commercial Update The Carlsberg...
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Danske Bank Winter Seminar Peter Kondrup, VP Investor Relations

Agenda Group overview and strategy Regional update Commercial Update

The Carlsberg Group today No. 4

largest international brewer

500

beer brands

No. 1

in Eastern Europe

No. 2

in Northern & Western Europe

119,000,000 hl. of beer sold in 2011

+17% EBIT growth (CAGR) from 2007 to 2011

+9% EPS growth (CAGR) from 2007 to 2011

Page 3

Transformational changes since 2000... Beer volume development 160

137

140

137

140

127

120

115 101

100

93

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

82

80

72

69

60

57

40

1 1

1 0

2 0

0 9

2 0

0 8

2 0

0 7

2 0

0 6

2 0

0 5

2 0

0 4

2 0

0 3

2 0

0 2

2 0

2 0

2 0

0 1

20

Value management Brand portfolio activation and scoping Step change innovations Business process standardization Next level group efficiency Back-end centralization and integration Winning people Corporate Social Responsibility

● S&N acquisition & integration ● Accelerate efficiencies and execute synergies ● Drive revenue growth

● Acquisition of 100% of Carlsberg Breweries ● Excellence programs ● Establishment of Carlsberg Breweries

2000

2005

2010

2015 … ● Structure ● Operations

Page 4

Carlsberg regions – a good mix WE

EE

ASIA

GROUP

2011

% of total beer volume

42

40

18

49

39

12

2011

% of EBIT

Page 5

2009-2011 financial achievements Total volume m. hl. Pro rata 135.7

137.9

Net revenue DKKbn

EBIT

DKKbn

63.6 59.4

9.4

9.8

Average trade working capital % of net revenue 5.7%

1.9%

2009

CAGR

2011

+0.8%

2009

2011

+3.5%

2009

2011

+2.2%

2009

2011

-3.8pp

Page 6

Agenda Group overview and strategy Regional update Commercial Update

Western Europe – Continued profit improvements Operating profit (DKKbn)

Operating profit margin 20%

6.000

5.000 15% 4.000

10%

3.000

2.000 5% 1.000

0%

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Company accounts

Page 8

Business standardisation •

An enabler to further efficiency and transparency - A vital part of further supply chain integration



Standardising in a balanced way - Covers the common parts of the value chain in different market models



Clear strategy fully aligned with all other group initiatives

- Greater level of cross functionality - Greater cross border alignment •

Roll-out started in Switzerland in May 2011



A few examples:

- From 800 different IT systems to 200 - From 3,000 operational reports to 180 - From 323 order taking reports to 23 - From 15 different ways of naming the same customer to 1 Page 9

Supply chain integration will drive flexibility and reduce costs

Today

Future

Country A

Region Country Sales A

Sales

Country Sales B Country B Sales

Central supply org

Country Sales C

Country Sales D

Country C

Country Sales … Sales

10

The Eastern European market leader

RUSSIA BELARUS*

(1 brewery, Minsk) Market position: No. 2 2011 market share: 27%

(10 breweries: St. Petersburg, Yaroslavl, Voronezh, Tula, Rostov, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Khabarovsk, Chelyabinsk, Samara) Market position: No. 1 2011 market share: 37%

KAZAKHSTAN

UKRAINE

(3 breweries, Lviv, Kiev, Zaparozhye) Market position: No. 2 2011 market share: 29%

AZERBAIJAN

(1 brewery: Baku) Market position: No. 1 2011 market share: 67%

(1 brewery, Almaty) Market position: No. 2 2011 market share: 39%

Volume break-down 2011 6% 17%

UZBEKISTAN

(1 brewery, Tashkent) Market position: No. 1 2011 market share: 31%

Others Ukraine Russia 77%

11

Eastern Europe – volume growth opportunities Per capita beer consumption (litres)

Beer share of throat (% of pure alcohol consumption)

112

70

96

60

80

50

64

40

48

30

32

20

16

10

0

0

Source: Canadean and Carlsberg estimates 12

Strong Russian brand portfolio •

Excellent mix of international, national and regional brands



Baltika has 4 of the top ten brands in Russia

Baltika Baltika market segment share position H1 ‘12

Largest brand

Super premium

#1

34%

Tuborg

Premium

#1

37%

Baltika 7

Mainstream

#1

50%

Baltika 3

Lower mainstream

#1

28%

Arsenalnoe

Discount

#1

37%

Bolshaya Kruzhka

Non-beer brands

Source: Nielsen 13

Russian market shares starting to trend upwards Carlsberg Russian market share 40%

39%

38%

37%

36%

35% Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Source: Nielsen retail audit

Page 14

Asia – A strongly growing region Beer volumes (m hl)

Operating profit (DKKbn)

25

1.250

20

1.000

15

750

10

500

5

250

0

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Company accounts

Page 15

Volume growth opportunities in Asia Per capita beer consumption (litres) 40

35

30

25

20

15

10

Vietnam

Thailand

Taiwan

Sri Lanka

Singapore

Nepal

Malaysia

Laos

India

Hong Kong

China

Cambodia

5

Page 16

Asia – footprint Western China* Market share

~ 55-60%

China – Premium beer Market share ~7% Nepal Market share Ownership share

India Market share Ownership share

Sri Lanka Market share Ownership share

Singapore Market share Ownership share

71% 90%

6% 100%

n.a. 17.4%

20% 51%

Laos Market share Ownership share

99% 51%

Hong Kong Market share

19%

Vietnam Market share Ownership share: SEAB Hue Hanoi Brewery Halong Beer & Bev.

34% 60% 100% 16% 31%

Cambodia Market share Ownership share

38% 50%

Malaysia Market share Ownership share

44% 51%

* Please see separate map for ownership share

Page 17

Agenda Group overview and strategy Regional update Commercial Update

Rational Carlsberg Brand Portfolio Adjacent categories

International Premium

Carlsberg

International Premium Brands

Local Premium

Flagship

Beer category

Local `Power Brands ’ NB: Selection from Carlsberg Group portfolio of 500 brands

Page 19

UEFA EURO 2012: the biggest commercial opportunity for Carlsberg in 2012 TOURNAMENT HIGHLIGHTS • Stadia beer sales up 40% compared to 2008 • 6,688,676 visitors to tournament fan zones • Unprecedented television audiences for the final resulting in higher visibility of Carlsberg perimeter advertising • Over 1,000,000 cups of beer sold at half-time during the Final

• 20 tonnes of plastic cups recycled in Polish fan zones • 375,000 pledge to drink responsibly and wear the 'Drink Responsibly’ wristbands

20

Tuborg – Open for more MUSIC IS IN TUBORG’S DNA Sponsor of music festivals all over Europe EXPORTED TO MORE THAN 70 COUNTRIES And available since 1888 DENMARK’S LEADING BEER BRAND And continuing to grow internationally - especially in Eastern Europe and Asia

21

Kronenbourg 1664 A SIP OF FRANCE genuine lager with French taste traditions EXPORTED TO MORE THAN 60 COUNTRIES and still expanding…

MARKET LEADER FOR HIGHEND PREMIUM BEER a brewing expertise inherited since 1664 SUCCESSFUL EXTENSIONS with Kronenbourg 1664 Blanc flavoured wheat beer

Page 22

Q&A

Page 23

Forward-looking statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements about the Group’s sales, revenues, earnings, spending, margins, cash flow, inventory, products, actions, plans, strategies, objectives and guidance with respect to the Group's future operating results. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain the words "believe", "anticipate", "expect", "estimate", "intend", "plan", "project", "will be", "will continue", "will result", "could", "may", "might", or any variations of such words or other words with similar meanings. Any such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in such forward-looking statements. Prospective information is based on management’s then current expectations or forecasts. Such information is subject to the risk that such expectations or forecasts, or the assumptions underlying such expectations or forecasts, may change. The Group assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting such forward-looking statements. Some important risk factors that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from those expressed in its forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: economic and political uncertainty (including interest rates and exchange rates), financial and regulatory developments, demand for the Group's products, increasing industry consolidation, competition from other breweries, the availability and pricing of raw materials and packaging materials, cost of energy, production and distribution related issues, information technology failures, breach or unexpected termination of contracts, price reductions resulting from market driven price reductions, market acceptance of new products, changes in consumer preferences, launches of rival products, stipulation of market value in the opening balance sheet of acquired entities, litigation, environmental issues and other unforeseen factors. New risk factors can arise, and it may not be possible for management to predict all such risk factors, nor to assess the impact of all such risk factors on the Group's business or the extent to which any individual risk factor, or combination of factors, may cause results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied on as a prediction of actual results. Page 24