Country Briefing: South Korea Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 10, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683
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Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333
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Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Real GDP Industrial Production Purchasing Managers Indexes Merchandise Trade Retail Sales Labor Market Consumer & Business Confidence Consumer Prices Interest Rates Stock Market Industrial Production & Exports Exports
January 10, 2017 / South Korea
1-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-11 12 13 14 15-16
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Real GDP Figure 1. 6 4
6
SOUTH KOREA: REAL GDP (quarterly percent change)
4
Total
2
2 Q3
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
6
6
Household Consumption
4
4
2
2 Q3
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
9
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 9
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
6
6
3
3
Q3
0
0
-3
-3
-6
-6 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
10
10
Construction (GFCF) 5
5 Q3
0
0
-5
-5
-10
yardeni.com 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Bank of Korea.
-10 2004
2005
Page 1 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Real GDP Figure 2. 20 15
20
SOUTH KOREA: REAL GDP (quarterly percent change)
Machinery & Equipment (GFCF)
15
10
10
5
5 Q3
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
6
6
Government Spending
4
4
2
2
Q3
0
0
-2
-2 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
15
15
Exports of Goods & Services
10
10
5
5 Q3
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 20
20
Imports of Goods & Services
15
15 10
10 5
5
Q3
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15 yardeni.com
-20 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Bank of Korea.
2004
2005
Page 2 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-20
2018
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Industrial Production Figure 3. 115
115
SOUTH KOREA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Nov
(2010=100, sa) 105
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
65
65
55
55
yardeni.com
45 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
45
2018
Source: National Statistics Office.
Figure 4. 40 35
40
SOUTH KOREA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change)
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10 Nov
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30 yardeni.com
-35 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-35
2018
Source: National Statistics Office.
Page 3 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Purchasing Managers Indexes Figure 5. 56
56
SOUTH KOREA: MANUFACTURING PMI*
54
54
52
52
50
50 Dec
48
48
46
46
yardeni.com
44 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
44
2018
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Merchandise Trade Figure 6. 12
12
SOUTH KOREA: MERCHANDISE TRADE (billion dollars, sa)
9
9 Dec
Balance
6
6
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
-6
-6 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
55
55
50
50
45
45
Dec Exports
40
40
Imports
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5 2000
60
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 60
(yearly percent change in 3-ma)
50
Exports
50
40
Imports
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
Dec
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40 yardeni.com
-50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Korea Customs Service.
2005
Page 5 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-50
2018
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Retail Sales Figure 7. 125 120
125
SOUTH KOREA: RETAIL SALES
Nov
(2010=100, sa)
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70 yardeni.com
65 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
65
2018
Source: National Statistics Office.
Figure 8. 25
25
SOUTH KOREA: RETAIL SALES (yearly percent change)
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5 Nov
0
0
-5
-5
yardeni.com
-10 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-10
2018
Source: National Statistics Office.
Page 6 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Labor Market Figure 9. SOUTH KOREA: EMPLOYMENT 26
Dec
(millions, sa)
26
24
24
22
22
20
20 2000
1.3 1.2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 1.3
SOUTH KOREA: UNEMPLOYMENT (millions, sa)
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0 Dec
.9
.9
.8
.8
.7
.7
.6
.6 2000
5.5
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 5.5
SOUTH KOREA: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (percent)
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
Dec
3.0
3.0 yardeni.com
2.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: National Statistics Office.
2005
Page 7 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2.5
2018
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Consumer & Business Confidence Figure 10. SOUTH KOREA: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 120
(100=neutral, nsa)
120
110
110
100
100 Dec
90
90
80
80
yardeni.com
70 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
70
2018
Source: Bank of Korea.
Figure 11. 100
100
SOUTH KOREA: BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (100=neutral, nsa)
90
90
80
80
Dec 70
70
60
60
yardeni.com
50 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
50
2018
Source: Bank of Korea.
Page 8 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Consumer Prices Figure 12. SOUTH KOREA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 6
(yearly percent change)
6
Total Excluding Agricultural Products & Oil
4
4
2
2 Dec
0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
20
20
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
15
15
10
10
5
5
Dec
0
0
-5
-5 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
7
7
6
6
Clothing & Footwear
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2 Dec
1
1
0
0
-1
-1 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
8
8
Housing, Water, And Fuels
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0 Dec
-2 -4
-2
yardeni.com 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: National Statistics Office.
-4 2005
Page 9 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Consumer Prices Figure 13. 10
10
SOUTH KOREA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change)
Household Furnishings & Maintenance
5
5
Dec
0
0
-5
-5 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
20
20
15
15
10
10
Health 5
5 Dec
0
0
-5
-5 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
20
20
Transportation
10
10 Dec
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
6
6
3
3
Communication
Dec
0
0
-3
-3
-6
-6 yardeni.com
-9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: National Statistics Office.
2005
Page 10 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-9
2018
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Consumer Prices Figure 14. 6 4
6
SOUTH KOREA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change)
4
Culture & Recreation 2
2
Dec
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
8
8
Education 6
6
4
4
2
2
Dec
0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
8
8
6
6
Restaurants & Hotels 4
4 Dec
2
2
0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
12 8
12
Miscellaneous Goods & Services
8
4
4
Dec
0
0
-4
-4 yardeni.com
-8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: National Statistics Office.
2005
Page 11 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-8
2018
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Interest Rates Figure 15. 6.0 5.5
6.0
SOUTH KOREA CENTRAL BANK RATE (percent)
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1/10
1.0
1.0
.5
.5 2006
7
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 7
SOUTH KOREA INTERBANK 3-MONTH RATE (percent)
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2 1/10
1
1 2006
8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 8
SOUTH KOREA 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD (percent)
6
6
4
4
1/10
2
0
2
yardeni.com 2006 2007 2008 Source: Haver Analytics.
0 2009
Page 12 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Stock Market Figure 16. 2400
2400
SOUTH KOREA: STOCK PRICE INDEX (Kospi)
2200
2200 1/10
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
200-day Moving Average 1000
1000 yardeni.com
800 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
800
2018
Source: Reuters America, Inc.
Page 13 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Industrial Production & Exports Figure 17. 140
50
SOUTH KOREA Dec
120
Nov
40
100
Industrial Production (ex construction) (2010=100)
30
80
Exports (billions US$) 60
20
40 10 20
yardeni.com
0
0
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 14 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Exports Figure 18. 60000
60000
SOUTH KOREA EXPORTS (billion won, sa)
Dec
50000
40000
50000
40000
Total (51340.5) 30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
yardeni.com
0
0
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Korea Customs Service and Haver Analytics.
Figure 19. 150
150
SOUTH KOREA EXPORTS (yearly percent change in won)
125
125
100
100
Total (7.3)
75
75
50
50
25
25 Dec
0
0
-25
-25 yardeni.com
-50
-50
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Korea Customs Service and Haver Analytics.
Page 15 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Exports Figure 20. 15000
15000
SOUTH KOREA EXPORTS TO CHINA (billion won, sa)
Dec
10000
10000
Total (13512.0)
5000
5000
yardeni.com
0
0
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Korea Customs Service and Haver Analytics.
Figure 21. 300
300
SOUTH KOREA EXPORTS TO CHINA (yearly percent change in won)
250
250
Total (10.7)
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50 Dec
0
0
yardeni.com
-50
-50
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Korea Customs Service and Haver Analytics.
Page 16 / January 10, 2017 / South Korea
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
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