Welcome Workshop 1: The emerging Master Market (Room: Auditorium 2) HRK German Rectors' Conference Projekt nexus Concepts and good practice in Higher Education
25 October 2011
New perspectives for Master Study Programs in Europe
The opportunities of internationalization and the case of the MBA 25, October 2011 BOLOGNA SEMINAR - BERLIN 2
The presentation and paper that will follow is within the VISION practice on “the universities of the future” available at www.visionwebsite.eu
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AGENDA • The opportunities of internationalisation • Marketing Universities • MBA as the most market oriented master program • Rankings and positioning of European schools • Strategic choices for the future 4
Economic Value
The Net Present Value of Attracting a foreign student – Illustrative (Not EU student, London, in Euro, per year)
Source: Vision analysis on Vision, The Economist, University of London data
INTERNATIONALIZATION - MBA
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The market size
• 205% = Growth rate between 1998 and 2008 (in the meantime world income per habitant increased of about 150%) • 15,000 € - Estimated value per student, 1 year • 40 – 50 Billion € = total market
Source: Vision processing OECD and UNESCO data
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Driver of internationalization growth (2) A forecast to 2020 Number of international students (million, per cent, 2020 – 2008) 2.10
0.67 mio
6.13 mio
23%%
mio
80% 77%
3.34 mio - 0.02 mio
2008
population in university age
Propensity to study
internationalisatio n of students
2020
drivers of growth Source: Vision analysis on UNESCO, OECD, World Bank data
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Market fragmentation Break down international students per origin (2008)
Germany 2,8 %
Turkey 2,0 %
Korea 3,5 % India
5,5%
France Others top Russian Fed. Japan 15 United States Malaysia Morocco Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Canada Italy
1,9% 1,8% 1,6% 1,6% 1,5% 1,5% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,3%
Weight of top fifteen IS origin countries on selected worldwide macro data (2008) 62,4%
China 15,3 %
52,3% 44,4%
Others (not top 15) 55,6
Source: Vision analysis on UNESCO, OECD, World Bank data
International students
Share of world GDP
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World population 8
Market share forecast Market share, Incoming international students, 2000, 2020 (forecast) 24,1%
15,6%
11,3%
2000
2020
9,5% 8,5% 7,0% 5,2%
6,7% 5,6%
5,4%
5,7% 4,8% 3,5%
3,4%3,1%
1,3%
1,8%
2,3% 1,3% 0,2%
United States
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Australia
Canada
Japan
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Italy
Spain
Korea
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Countries ranking
27%
International students incoming as a percentage of students in the country
26%
25 5%
International students outgoing as a percentage of students in the country
23% 22%
17% 16%
15%
15%
20% 24%
14%
7%
19% 21%
22%
13%
11% 11%
14%
10% 5%
4%
2% Iceland
New Zealand
Austria
Australia
3%
1%
1% Switzerland
4%
3% Ireland
Canada
United Kingdom
Germany
France
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INTERNATIONALIZATION - MBA
Competitive analysis (1) New comers
Stars
Growth rate Students Incoming 2004 - 2008
250%
Russia
-
?
Italy Spain
Out bounders
100%
Cash cows Japan France
India UK China
USA
Germany
Brazil 0%
-50%
10%
20%
Market Share on Students Incoming 2008
Source: Vision analysis on UNESCO, OECD, World Bank data
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Market share on BRIC (2008)
Competitive analysis (2)
30%
Specialized in high growth markets
Leaders USA
25% 12%
Japan
UK
Canada
10%
Germany
Regional players 5%
Australia Russia Italy
Research oriented France
Spain
0
6%
14%
Market share on Top 7 incoming Countries (2008)
20 %
Source: Vision analysis on UNESCO, OECD, World Bank data
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Opportunity for Europe Preferred destination, Would be international students, 2008
#1 Priority #2 Priority Latin America Middle Europe & East Carribean
Overall ranking
Africa
Asia Pacific Europe
Europe
37%
28%
23%
44%
33%
33%
26%
Asia Pacific
24%
7%
44%
22%
3%
10%
26%
North America Latin America & Carribean
19%
13%
23%
18%
27%
20%
12%
9%
10%
2%
6%
37%
7%
17%
Africa
7%
39%
2%
6%
0%
8%
9%
Middle East
5%
3%
6%
3%
0%
27%
10%
Geographic priority attributed to
North America
Sources: Vision on IAU, Global Survey Data (2005)
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Marketing Universities (1) Measuring economic value per segment (in euro) IMPACT ON SUPPLY CHINESE UNDERGRAD
FUTURE
STUDENTS 158
NPV 34.5 mio
COUNTRY
INDIAN PHD 1.5 MIO REVENUES OPPORTUNITIES AVERAGE VALUE 34K
UNIVERSITY COSTS RISKS
NATIONAL CITY OTHER SEGMENTS
Marketing Universities (2) Identifying competitive advantages on segments’ buying factors
• The marketing in global markets of innovation - Identify competitive advantages
Source: Adapted from a Vision & Value project
MBA as the “golden egges goose” within master programmes
• Tuition are around 85 thousand (82 for the 16 – 100 BS and 92 for the top 15) USD and salaries are around 90 thousand (81 for the 16 – 100 BS and 111 for the top 15) USD • 13,500 business schools of which 633 (503 USA) accredited by AACSB (Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business) • Professor’s average salary (for AACSB) 169,000 USD
• Constant increase (for AACSB) of average enrollment from 411 (2001) to 443 (2010)
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The end of the MBA’s golden age? as a Martket (1)
US Full-time MBA programmes, $’000 100 Average salary of graduates* 90 80 70 Tuition Fees 60 50 40
30 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: The Economist, * Upon Graduation
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The end of the MBA’s golden age? as a Martket (2)
Number of GMATs taken, ’000 Rest of the World
Asia
United States
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Vision on Graduate Management Admission Council’s data
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2011 Ranking Ranking 2010 2010
Ranking 2011 2011
2 1 6 11 4 3 12 7 10 5 13 14 19 9 8 21 20 16 23 28 29 18 15 22 33 24 37 36 27 25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
0
dartmouth chicago imd (switzerland) virginia (darden) harvard berkeley columbia stanford york (canada) iese (spain) mit new york stern lbs (uk) hec (france) wharton carnegie esade (spain) northwestern insead (france) duke bath (uk) southern california cranfield (uk) ie (spain) cornell yale ucla emory hult michigan
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
107 108 130 101
MBA ranking and salary after graduation
115 107 106 119 93 119 110 100 105 129
114 94 111 107 117 102 110 94 106 103 97 98 97 93 90 99
Source: Vision on The Economist’s data
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The position of Europe Share of top 100 Universities, ARWU
Share of top 100 Business School Others; 10
Others; 16 Asia; 8 Asia; 5
usa; 49
usa; 53
EU ; 26 EU ; 33
Source: Vision on ARWU’s data
Source: Vision on The Economist’s data
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From “absolute values” to “value for money” ranking ranking 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
institution dartmouth chicago imd (switzerland) virginia (darden) harvard berkeley columbia stanford york (canada) iese (spain) mit new york stern lbs (uk) hec (france) wharton carnegie esade (spain) northwestern insead (france) duke bath (uk) southern california cranfield (uk) ie (spain) cornell yale ucla emory hult michigan
salary post salary/ increase/ tuition tuition
salary
salary increase
pre salary
increase salary
duration
tuition
107
65
65
42
21
101
1,1
0,4
108
38
78
30
21
102
1,1
0,3
130
68
77
53
11
58
2,2
0,9
101
58
64
37
21
99
1,0
0,4
115
48
78
37
24
102
1,1
0,4
107
48
72
35
21
105
1,0
0,3
106
41
75
31
20
106
1,0
0,3
119
51
79
40
21
110
1,1
0,4
93
127
41
52
12
63
1,5
0,8
119
150
48
71
19
94
1,3
0,8
110
47
75
35
22
106
1,0
0,3
100
61
62
38
22
89
1,1
0,4
105
67
63
42
18
80
1,3
0,5
129
132
56
73
16
60
2,2
1,2
114
46
78
36
21
108
1,1
0,3
94
64
57
37
21
108
0,9
0,3
111
140
46
65
15
76
1,5
0,9
107
46
73
34
22
108
1,0
0,3
117
38
85
32
10
75
1,6
0,4
102
75
58
44
22
101
1,0
0,4
110
145
45
65
12
34
3,2
1,9
94
40
67
27
22
110
0,9
0,2
106
107
51
55
12
49
2,2
1,1
103
87
55
48
13
78
1,3
0,6
97
64
59
38
22
103
0,9
0,4
98
64
60
38
21
106
0,9
0,4
97
46
66
31
21
104
0,9
0,3
93
88
49
44
22
87
1,1
0,5
90
260
25
65
12
56
1,6
1,2
99
47
67
32
20
100
1,0
0,3
years to recover investment 5,1 8,0 2,5 5,7 6,9 6,7 7,5 6,2 2,0 2,4 6,9 5,4 4,1 1,8 6,8 5,7 2,1 7,2 4,5 4,8 1,2 8,7 1,8 2,9 5,6 5,5 7,2 4,1 1,2 6,7
Source: Vision on The Economist’s data
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The value for money ranking ranking 2011 1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
years to recover investment
institution
salary (usd)
increase salary (usd)
duration (months)
tuition (usd)
post salary/ tuition
salary increase/ tuition
bath (uk) hult hec (france) cranfield (uk) york (canada) esade (spain) iese (spain) imd (switzerland) ie (spain) emory lbs (uk) insead (france) duke dartmouth new york stern yale cornell carnegie virginia (darden) stanford berkeley michigan wharton harvard mit northwestern ucla columbia chicago southern california
110
65
12
34
3,2
1,9
90
65
12
56
1,6
1,2
129
73
16
60
2,2
1,2
106
55
12
49
2,2
1,1
93
52
12
63
1,5
0,8
111
65
15
76
1,5
0,9
119
71
19
94
1,3
0,8
130
53
11
58
2,2
0,9
103
48
13
78
1,3
0,6
93
44
22
87
1,1
0,5
105
42
18
80
1,3
0,5
117
32
10
75
1,6
0,4
102
44
22
101
1,0
0,4
107
42
21
101
1,1
0,4
100
38
22
89
1,1
0,4
98
38
21
106
0,9
0,4
97
38
22
103
0,9
0,4
94
37
21
108
0,9
0,3
101
37
21
99
1,0
0,4
119
40
21
110
1,1
0,4
107
35
21
105
1,0
0,3
99
32
20
100
1,0
0,3
114
36
21
108
1,1
0,3
115
37
24
102
1,1
0,4
110
35
22
106
1,0
0,3
107
34
22
108
1,0
0,3
97
31
21
104
0,9
0,3
106
31
20
106
1,0
0,3
108
30
21
102
1,1
0,3
1,2 1,2 1,8 1,8 2,0 2,1 2,4 2,5 2,9 4,1 4,1 4,5 4,8 5,1 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,7 6,2 6,7 6,7 6,8 6,9 6,9 7,2 7,2 7,5 8,0
94
27
22
110
0,9
0,2
8,7
Source: Vision on the Economist’s data
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Some problems and opportunities
1. Notwithstanding globalization only 14% of case studies deal with cross border issues and for only 6% the issue was central 2. Notwithstanding the crisis that is changing paradigma only 1 of 32 cases newly added to the 2011 – 2012 curricula of HBS general management courses refers to the financial crisis (2009) 3. Notwithstanding the rise of Chinese (30,000 GMAT takers from 10,000 in 2005) and Indian (between 1,500 and 2,500 business schools) market only two of the 100 top business schools are from these two countries
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Possible strategies for MBA programmes Executive
New segments LLL
Country Specialzation Industry
Branching out Possible strategies for
Multinazionalization
MBA progrmas
Joint Ventures
Part-time
Efficiency
One year
LSE - LBS option
Online
Source: Vision
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www.visionwebsite.eu
[email protected]
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