The Ghost of Christmas Past – 2015: Our 5th annual insight review of consumer behaviour at Christmas

We asked a series of nine questions relating to Christmas 2015, repeating the measurements of 2014. Fieldwork ran throughout January 2016 and used Toluna’s single question sponsored polls. Here’s what we asked:

1a: When did you begin buying your Christmas presents for the Christmas just gone? (n=3,453) 1b: When did you buy most of your Christmas presents for the Christmas just gone? (n=3,480) 2: Which of these best describes how much you spent overall on the Christmas just gone compared to the one before? (n=2,238) 3: Who did you spend LESS on this Christmas just gone compared to the one before? (n=3,599) 4: Which of these best describes how much of your overall spend on presents for the Christmas just gone was on-line? (n=3,427) 5: Which of these did you give as a gift to someone else this Christmas? (n=3,935) 6: Thinking about sending greeting cards for the recent festive season, which of the following did you do on behalf of yourself & your family? (n=3,232) 7: Where did you spend the majority of Christmas Day? (n=2,904) 8: Which of these best describes how you felt about this Christmas just gone compared to the one before? (n=2,162)

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The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016.

1. Christmas Present Buying – Most start in November November still the peak time for starting Christmas shopping, although the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales gaining traction. Whilst few leave it until the last minute, less started in October than in previous research. Started Christmas Shopping 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

26% 23%

21% 16% 11%

21%

18%

17%

10%

8%

5% 3% In the previous Christmas/ New Year sales

During the Summer

October

November

Black Friday/Cyber Monday Sales

7%

5%

5%

1%

December

6%

1%

A few days On Christmas I didn't - I rebefore Eve cycled things I Christmas Eve already had

November and December see equal share of Christmas shopping overall Most Christmas Presents Bought 2011

29%

14% 9% 7%

8%

In the previous Christmas/ New Year sales

2

28%

2013

26%

2014

2015

28%

13%

7%

During the Summer

2012

3%4% October

November

4%

7%

5% 1%

Black December Friday/Cyber Monday Sales

A few days before Christmas Eve

2%

3%3%

4%

On I didn't - I re- I didn't Christmas cycled things someone Eve I already had else bought all my presents for me

The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016

2. Christmas Spend – Economic recovery slowly starting to feed into an increase in overall spend Comparing the net scores calculated by subtracting the number of people claiming to have spent more this year, vs. those claiming to have spent less, reveals the largest net score since we started to collect data. This increase was largely driven by a behavioural change amongst the 16-34 year olds, with a net score of +19 (+3 in 2014) Christmas Spend Compared to Previous Year A lot more

2011

8%

6%

19%

2013

7%

17%

2014

7%

A little less

44%

13%

20%

47%

21%

A lot less

16%

45%

20%

9%

3

About the same

20%

2012

2015

A little more

11%

17%

49%

12%

14%

50%

14%

Year

Net Spend (More minus Less)

2011

-1

2012

-6

2013

-5

2014

+4

2015

+9

9%

7%

The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016

3. Who we spent less on 2015 saw the lowest number of people claiming to have spent the same (or more) as last year since we started collecting data. Those who got less than last year were primarily the respondent themselves, and their partner.

2014 saw a noticeable reduction in the size of the overall gifting circle. With the exception of the two recipients noted above gifting levels have stabilised across the other categories. The implication of these results is that with net spending up (see previous page), but gifting circles the same or smaller than last year, those receiving presents still are having more spent on them!.

2011

2012

Myself Partner

24% 16%

Myself Partner

2013

22% 18%

Myself Partner

2014

22% 17%

Myself

2015

19%

Myself

Partner

13%

Partner

21% 16%

Friends

11%

Friends

13%

Friends

12%

Friends

11%

Friends

10%

Parents

9%

Parents

12%

Parents

11%

Parents

9%

Parents

10%

Relatives

14%

Relatives

13%

Relatives

9%

Relatives

9%

11%

Kids

10%

Kids

8%

Kids

8%

Relatives

10%

Kids

9%

Kids

Colleagues

6%

Colleagues

8%

Colleagues

8%

Colleagues

6%

Colleagues

6%

Charities

9%

Charities

7%

Charities

7%

Charities

5%

Charities

5%

Neighbours

5%

Neighbours

6%

Neighbours

4%

Neighbours

3%

Neighbours Spent Same as last year

4

5%

Spent Same as 48% last year

Spent Same as 47% last year

Spent Same as 48% last year

Spent Same as 51% last year

44%

The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016

4. Online Spend – Continuing to rise as ‘Click’ catches ‘Brick’ Just over half (55%) of consumers conducted at least half their Christmas shopping online. Broadly similar to previous years.

This figure is dragged down by the 55+ age group where 43% spend around half their total online (up from 40% in 2014). What we’re witnessing is a ‘flattening’ of spend across the age groups as the older generation catch up with the younger..

Proportion of Online Present Spend All my spend was on-line

Most of my spend (over 2/3rds) was on-line

Around half of my spend was on-line

Some of my spend (around 1/3rd) was on-line

A small amount of my spend was on-line

I didn't buy anything on-line

I didn't buy any presents at all 2011

10%

24%

2012

6%

25%

2013

6%

24%

2014

7%

2015

9%

5

23% 25%

19% 22% 21%

16% 17% 16%

21%

13% 14%

16% 21%

13%

15%

16% 13%

11% 11% 11%

11% 11%

8% 7% 8%

6% 7%

The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016

5. Present Categories – Chocolates and Sweets still the most popular gift… …but 3 categories appear to have seen significant decline - Money/vouchers, jewellery and Games consoles/games for a console. 2011

2012

Boxed chocolates/ confectionery

2013

Boxed chocolates/ 40% confectionery

39%

Clothes

2014

Boxed chocolates/ 46% confectionery

43%

Clothes

2015

Boxed chocolates/ 47% confectionery

Clothes

45% Clothes

Boxed chocolates/ 45% confectionery

43%

49% 45%

Clothes

Perfume/ toiletries/ cosmetics/ aftershave

Perfume/ toiletries/ 32%cosmetics/ aftershave

Perfume/ toiletries/ cosmetics/ 35% aftershave

Perfume/ toiletries/ cosmetics/ 34% aftershave

Perfume/ toiletries/ 32%cosmetics/ aftershave

34%

Money/ vouchers

Money/ vouchers 30%

Money/ 40% vouchers

Money/ 37% vouchers

Money/ 37% vouchers

33%

Books/ electronic books

Books/ electronic 37%books

Books/ electronic 38%books

35% books

Books/ electronic books

32%

25%

Toys

Movie/ film/ box set 23%

Movie/ film/ box set

Music CD / iTunes vouchers

20%

Jewellery

21%

Other electronic goods

12%

Games console/

17%game for a console

22%

Other electronic goods

16%

Games console/

16% game for a console

Hamper basket/ food/ turkey

10%

Hamper basket/ food/ turkey

None of these

4% 9%

TV (e.g. Digital/3D)

None of these

3% 10%

TV (e.g. Digital/3D)

None of these

9% 10% 4% 11%

16% 16%

Jewellery

15% game for a console

10%

TV (e.g. Digital/3D)

22%

Games console/

Whisky

21%

Music CD / iTunes vouchers

13%

10%

5%

14%

Other electronic goods

Whisky

26%

Toys

Movie/ film/ box set 19%

Jewellery

10%

TV (e.g. Digital/3D)

11%

Music CD / iTunes vouchers

Whisky

Hamper basket/ food/ turkey

26%

Toys

18%

Jewellery

17%

7%

6

23%

Other electronic goods

Hamper basket/ food/ turkey

None of these

Music CD / iTunes vouchers

Jewellery

31%

Movie/ film/ box set 22%

21%

19%game for a console 10%

29%

Toys

Movie/ film/ box set 24%

Music CD / iTunes vouchers

Games console/ game for a console

Whisky

30%

Toys

Books/ electronic

Other electronic goods

14%

Games console/

13%

Whisky

Hamper basket/ food/ turkey

TV (e.g. Digital/3D)

None of these

10% 9% 4% 8%

The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016

6. Christmas Cards – Resurgence witnessed in 2014 maintained Interestingly, whilst overall levels of card sending are almost identical to the previous year, levels of all individual channels of getting these cards to their recipients are down. This implies that whilst the same number of individuals are sending cards as last year, they’re sending less overall (in terms of volume).

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Hand delivered

Hand delivered 42%

Hand delivered 51%

Hand delivered 49%

Hand delivered 52%

2nd Class Post

2nd Class Post 38%

2nd Class Post 44%

2nd Class Post 42%

2nd Class Post 44%

1st Class Post

29% 1st Class Post

28% 1st Class Post

28% 1st Class Post

31% 1st Class Post

Post (Net)

60%Post (Net)

64%Post (Net)

61%Post (Net)

64%Post (Net)

Digital/ e-cards New Year cards

Digital/ e-cards

8% 2%

New Year cards

7

2%

Sent (any) 79%

Sent (any) Didn't Send Any

10%

21%

Diddn't Send Any

Digital/ e-cards New Year cards

Digital/ e-cards

10% 3%

New Year cards

Sent (any) 81% 19%

Diddn't Send Any

9% 3%

Sent (any) 79% 21%

Diddn't Send Any

Digital/ e-cards New Year cards

50% 40% 29% 61% 9% 4%

Sent (any) 84% 16%

Diddn't Send Any

83% 17%

The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016

7. Christmas Day – Slightly less than last year stayed at home, slightly more went on holiday Over half of us stay at home on Christmas Day (58% 2015 vs. 61% in 2014).

4% went on holiday (UK or abroad). As ever, 2% worked, and an unlucky 1% spent Christmas in hospital.

Spent Christmas Day ... 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

58%

56%

24%

24%

3%

At my home

8

At parents/ relatives

3%

At a friend/ neighbours

2%

2%

At work

6%

3% UK hols/ travelling

4%

4% 1%

Overseas hols/ travelling

1%

In hospital

3%

4%

Other

The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016

8. Christmas Mood – More positive for the 4th year in a row In 2012 we witnessed a slump in the overall Christmas mood of the population. This has gradually picked back up in the intervening years and is approaching 2011 levels (33% in 2011 said they were a little or a lot happier than the previous year vs. 31% in 2015). It’s also worth noting that the proportion of people saying they were a little less happy or a lot more unhappy is at it’s lowest in 2015 (17% vs a high of 23% in 2011).

Christmas Feeling Compared to Previous Year A lot happier

2011

12%

21%

A little happier

About the same

A little less happy

44%

2012

10%

2013

11%

17%

53%

2014

10%

19%

50%

2015

13%

9

17%

51%

18%

A lot more unhappy

13%

10%

13%

52%

10%

11%

10%

9%

8%

9%

7%

The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016

Summary: • Overall, Christmas spend is up, • So is the mood of the nation. • People are spending slightly more on a slightly smaller circle of friends and family – so the average gift value is up (by implication). • The US conceived sales (Black Friday/Cyber Monday) are growing gradually in prominence and becoming an accepted part of our culture. They are undoubtedly helping promote the general growth of online Christmas spending, particularly amongst the older generation who are rapidly catching up. • If you like a bet, shake your present and go with sweets or chocolates, to stand the biggest chance of a win (49% of being right).

Please contact us on 01494 618480 or via e-mail at [email protected] if you would like the full tabulations for these questions (with age, gender and regional breakdowns), or to discuss how these results might be adapted for the themes and issues in your company or organisation. If you would like a specific theme covered in the future, please send your suggestion to [email protected]

NOTE: All data collected using single question sponsored polls on Toluna’s professionally managed online research community panel in the UK. Data post weighted to be nationally representative by age, gender and region.

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The Ghost of Christmas Past – January 2016 | © insight engineers. 2016