Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion April 19-25, 2016

Detailed Methodology •

The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member of Taylor Nelson Sofres and Gallup International) in cooperation with Chariot LLC in San Francisco, California.

•

Data was collected from April 19 to 25, 2016, using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers.

•

A total of 1,104 interviews were completed, yielding an overall margin of error of plus or minus three percent at the midrange of the 95-percent confidence level. A nationally representative sample was based on a multistage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution, with a random selection of households and respondents. The response rate was 75 percent.

•

The sample was prepared using the State Statistical Office data (2002 census results) for the population aged 18 and older. It also considered the structure of the population according to age, gender, education, type of housing, national affiliation and region while updating accordingly to estimates and primary information, collected by Brima.

•

Stratification was based on three stages: first, the number of respondents for each of region was specified in proportion to the size of its population aged 18 and older. Second, the sampling plan consisted of 163 sampling points located according to urban/rural split, municipality size and nationality diffusion. Third, the selection of households was based on a random route method, whereby in urban areas, every third household on the left-hand side of the street was selected. In rural areas, the wave-wise approach was applied to select every fourth inhabited house/dwelling on both sides of the interviewer’s route/track, counting from the first house on the left.

•

The next birthday method was used to select respondents 18 years and older.

•

Figures in charts and tables may not add to 100 percent due to rounding error.

•

This poll was conducted with support from the United States Agency for International Development.

The Political Situation in Macedonia

How would you describe the current internal political situation in Macedonia? 70% 61% 60%

56%

61% 50% 40% 30% 20%

44%

36% 43% 36%

43%

48% 42%

38%

39%

41%

39%

42% 29%

35% 28%

8%

3% 4%

7% 7% 3% 4%

9%

10%

23% 16%

15%

13%

3%

45% 45% 44% 46% 43%

41% 43% 40%

23%

10%

55% 51%

44% 53% 54%

10%

0%

55%

51%

38%

59%

13%

13%

6% 3% 3%

Peaceful and Stable Critical and Unstable

2%

2%

3%

3%

12%

9%

4% 6%

12% 12% 4%

4%

19% 19%

15% 2%

4%

5% 3%

2%

Intense and Uncertain Don't Know/Refused to Answer 4

Is the Republic of Macedonia more or less stable today than it was one year ago? 80% 67%

70% 60% 60% 50% 40%

30%

43%

33%

35% 26% 21% 25%

20% 10%

46% 47% 46%

58%

51%

24%

27% 21% 22%

24% 17% 19% 18%

1%

2%

3%

2%

54% 53%

58%

50% 43%

42% 43%

30%

23% 17%

54% 54%

2%

2%

1%

1%

29% 28% 26%

25% 20% 1%

14%

18%

45%

47%

51% 47% 42% 35%

33%

31% 27% 31% 18% 16%

21% 23% 22% 19% 5% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1%

2%

35%

38% 18%

5% 2%

3%

25% 15% 3%

5%

3%

0%

More

Less

Same

Don't Know/Refused to Answer

5

Overall, is Macedonia moving in the right or wrong direction? 70% 58%

60%

40%

30%

48% 48%

48%

50%

45% 40% 38% 38% 38% 37% 34% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 36% 36% 32% 33% 31% 28% 28%

25% 24%

20%

26%

44%

43%

40%

41% 39%

36%

35%

30% 29%

27% 31%

31%

31% 29% 32%

23%

27%

19%

26%

33% 27%

46%

39% 39%

36% 24%

31% 28% 26%

28% 21%

29% 23%

22%

24%

24% 20%

10% 1% 2%

3%

2%

1%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

1%

2%

3%

2%

0%

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Neutral

Don't Know/Refused to Answer 6

In your opinion, what are the two most serious problems facing Macedonia today? (Open-Ended) 27%

Unemployment

17%

General/current political situation/the political crisis Poverty, low standard of living, problems of common people

26% 12%

38%

10%

23%

13% 7% 12%

Economic crisis and financial crisis Low or non-payment of salary or pension

19%

5% 10%

3% 6%

Corruption

8%

1%

6%

4%

Immigration/youth

1% 3%

4%

The current protests

2% 2%

4%

Poor performance of the current government

1% 2%

3%

Law and order, rule of law

1% 2%

3%

Security crisis, peace, stability, war, terrorism

1% 1%

3%

0%

14% 9%

3% 5%

Crime High prices

44%

5%

First Mention

10%

15%

Second Mention

20%

25%

30% 7

Do you support or do not support President Ivanov’s decision to pardon all politicians and their associates against whom there are judicial investigations in regards to the political crisis and the wiretapping?

12%

9%

I completely support it 14%

I somewhat support it I somewhat do not support it

I completely do not support it 11%

Don't know/Refused to answer

53%

8

Should the politicians who were pardoned by the President about deeds connected to the political crisis and the wiretapping be eligible or not be eligible to be candidates for MPs in the upcoming parliamentary elections?

18%

12%

Yes, they should be eligible No, they should not be eligible Don't know/Refused to answer

70%

9

A special public prosecutor, Katica Janeva, was appointed to investigate cases connected to the wiretapped conversations mentioned previously. Do you think that Ms. Janeva will be able to investigate these cases independently and without obstruction? 50% 44%

45% 38%

40% 35% 30%

35%

33% 27%

28%

25%

22% 18% 17%

20% 15%

20%

13%

10%

7%

5% 0% Yes

No October 2015

I have not heard of this appointment January 2016

Don’t know/ Refused to answer

April 2016 10

Do you support the work of the Special Public Prosecutor for the resolution of the wiretapping scandal?

12%

I completely support it I somewhat support it 42%

17%

I somewhat do not support it I completely do not support it 9%

Don't know/ Refused to answer 21%

11

Some people think that the conditions for free and fair elections in Macedonia (including cleaning the voter list, increasing the capacity of the State Election Commission, and establishing regulations reducing political interference in the media) have been met and because of this elections should take place on June 5; while others think that these conditions have not been met and because of this the elections should be postponed until the conditions are fulfilled. Which is closer to your opinion? 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25%

20%

45%

47% 39%

38%

15% 10%

16%

5%

15%

0% Elections should take place on June 5

Elections should be postponed

January 2016

Don't know/ Refused to answer

April 2016

Note: Data taken for January 2016 relates to proposed April 24, 2016 election date.

12

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on June 5, 2016?* 60%

52% 50% 40%

39%

30%

22% 20%

19% 8% 9%

10%

11%

7%

12%

10% 5%

6%

0%

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Somewhat unlikely January 2016

Very unlikely

Would not vote

Don't know/ Refused to answer

April 2016

* In January, the question was phrased “How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on April 24, 2016?”

13

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on June 5, 2016?

Age 55+

46%

Age 35-54

16%

40%

Age 18-34

18%

31%

0%

10%

22%

20%

30%

40%

8%

11%

12%

8%

16%

7%

50%

13%

60%

70%

7%

10%

8%

11%

16%

80%

90%

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Somewhat unlikely

Very unlikely

Would not vote

Don't know/Refused to answer

100%

14

Do you think there are conditions in the country to hold free and fair elections?

April 2016

January 2016

October 2015

48%

45%

59%

63%

Definitely Yes / Probably Yes

7%

35%

30%

Definitely No / Probably No

6%

7%

Don't know 15

As you may know, a credible voter list should contain all eligible voters in the country and not have any ineligible or duplicate voters in it. How confident are you in the accuracy of the voter list in Macedonia? 35% 29%

30%

31% 27%

26% 25% 21% 20%

15%

17%

23%

26%

24%

17%

15%

13%

12% 9%

10%

10%

5% 0%

I am very confident

I am somewhat confident

I am not that confident

October 2015

I am not confident at all

January 2016

Don’t know/ Refused to answer

April 2016 16

Do you think that state institutions are capable of sufficiently addressing any irregularities, should they occur, on Election Day? 45% 40%

39% 40% 38% 35%

35%

33% 32%

30%

25%

21% 17% 18%

20% 15%

10% 9% 9%

10% 5% 0% Yes, they are capable

No, they are not sufficiently capable

October 2015

No, they are not capable at all

January 2016

Don't know April 2016

17

What institution do you think is most responsible to ensure the elections will be free, democratic and with no irregularities? 60% 51% 50% 43% 40% 33% 30%

25%

20%

17% 13%

20% 17%18% 11%

10%

7%

11%10%11%

9% 2% 2% 2%

0% State Election Commission

Ministry of Internal Affairs/Police

The Government

October 2015

Political Parties The Judiciary

January 2016

Don’t know/ Refused to answer

April 2016 18

To what degree did you trust the following according to their actions in the last 12 months? Special Public Prosecution

33%

The President

40%

30%

52%

Ministries

27%

The Government

27%

State Election Commission

26%

44%

Public Prosecution

25%

46%

The Assembly

43% 53%

23%

Courts

21%

Media

20%

State Commission for Prevention of Corruption

20%

Political Parties

54% 52% 43% 52%

16%

0% I Trust Them/ I Fully Trust Them

49%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

I Have No Trust/ I Have No Trust at All 19

Do you believe that your vote on Election Day is secret?

80% 70%

69%

66%

71% 62%

66% 61%

60%

49%

50% 40%

39% 30%

23%

20% 10%

8%

31%

27%

23%

22% 13% 7%

7%

28%

7%

11%

11%

0%

Feb-14

May-14

Yes

Sep-14

No

Dec-14

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Don't Know/Refused to Answer

20

Who do you think violates the secrecy of your vote? Those who think that their vote on election day is not secret, n=309 38% 39%

Political Parties, All of Them

12%

The Government VMRO-DPMNE

12%

6%

15%

43%

19% 17%

1% 1%

SDSM

April-16

7% 5% 6%

DUI

January-16

1% 0% 1%

DPA

October-15 3%

State Election Commission

8% 6%

0% 2% 1%

The Police

18% 20% 19%

Don't Know/ Refused to Answer

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

21

Have you or has a member of your family, relative or someone you know personally ever been subject to pressure, such as force, threats, vote-buying or other illegal means, to vote in a particular way? 80%

75% 72%74% 71% 72% 70% 67% 67%

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

24% 24% 17% 18% 19% 19% 18% 15%

10%

3%

5%

7%

7%

4%5%5% 4% 3%

3%

7%

4%5%5% 5%

8%

0% I Personally Know People Who Were Subjected to Pressure

I Was Personally Subjected to Pressure

February 2014 June 2015

May 2014 October 2015

I Was Neither Subjected to Pressure nor Know People Who Were

September 2014 January 2016

Don't Know/ Refused to Answer

December 2014 April 2016

In Feb. 2014 responses refer to 2011, 2013 and 2014 elections. In May 2014 responses refer to 2014 elections

22

Has Nikola Gruevski done his job well enough to deserve re-election? 70%

66% 61% 61%

61% 60%

56% 59%

51%

50%

54%

54%

45%

40%

20% 18% 10%

27%

15% 16%

47% 38% 35%

37% 41% 40% 39% 38%

32%

31%

15%

12% 14%

39%

48% 46% 45% 44%

33%

25%

22%

17%

44%

36% 27%

24%

42%

52%

40%

33%

30% 23%

45% 43%

40% 39%

38%

30%

47%

48% 48%

55%

55%

53%

12%

15%

23% 14%

11%

18%

17%

17% 13% 11%

11%

13%

15%

15%

13% 15%

13%

13%

0%

Yes

No

Don't Know/Refused to Answer 23

Euro Atlantic Orientation Prevails

How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Macedonia’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with: European Union

39%

Germany

34%

33%

Turkey

37%

26%

America

China

29%

16% 0%

Strongly agree

10%

14%

30% 20%

30%

Somewhat agree

40%

50%

Somewhat disagree

12%

13%

11%

23%

23% 60%

11%

17%

12%

14%

9%

10%

12%

29%

24%

9%

9%

37%

29%

Russia

9%

70%

13%

17% 80%

Strongly disagree

90%

100%

Don't know 25

According to you, which one of these countries helps Macedonia’s national interests the most?

European Union

22%

Turkey

12%

Russia

11%

United States of America

10%

Germany

7%

China

1%

Neither

19%

All of them

5%

Don't know

13% 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

26

Do you support Macedonia becoming a member of the EU? 100% 90%

96%

94% 93% 92% 95% 93% 96% 94% 92% 90%

80%

87%

84% 76%

70%

72% 72%

76%

80% 72% 72% 71%

60% 50% 40%

30% 19% 20%

20% 10% 0%

3% 1%

4% 2%

5% 1%

7% 1%

4% 1%

6% 1%

Yes

4%

6%

1% 1%

No

7%

1%

9%

1%

9% 4%

23%

14%

12%

4%

22% 22% 23%

20%

6%

8%

6% 5%

6%

6%

7%

4%

Don't Know/Refused to Answer 27

In how many years do you think Macedonia will become a member of the EU? 16%

1-5 1-5 years

18%

21%

6-106-10 years

23%

More Than 10

21%

More Than 10 years

25% 25% 27%

25%

18% 17% 18%

Never Never

Don't Know Know/ NoDon't Answer

14%

Refused to Answer 0%

5%

October 2015

10%

15%

January 2016

16% 17% 20%

25%

30%

April 2016

28

Do you think Macedonia is closer to EU entry today, or was it closer when it got its EU candidate member status? 60%

56% 51%

50%

45%

43%

50%

26%

26%

25%

24%

44%

39%

40%

32%

32% 34%

30% 20%

50%

27% 23%

28%

28%

26%

28% 25% 21%

18%

10% 0%

Feb-14

May-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Closer Today When It Got the Status of EU Candidate Country Don't Know/Refused to Answer 29

According to you, what is the reason for the slowdown in Macedonia’s EU integration? The Name Issue

41%

Lack of Domestic Reforms

23%

28% 27% 28%

16% 15% 15% 17%

New Conditions Set by the EU Don't Know/ Refused to Answer Other

48% 45% 47%

9%

0%

0%

11% 9% 11%

2% 2% 3% 10%

June 2015

20%

October 2015

30%

January 2016

40%

50%

60%

April 2016

30

Do you support Macedonia becoming a member of NATO? 100% 92% 94% 92% 94% 91% 91% 90% 90% 89% 89% 89% 87% 85% 90% 78% 77%

80%

83% 83% 74%

76%

73%

70% 60%

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

5% 3%

8%

8%

2% 2%

9% 2%

6%

7%

5%

1%

1%

1%

Yes

8% 10% 10% 6% 2% 1%

No

2%

19% 18% 20% 16% 15% 13% 12% 9% 11% 7% 7% 8% 7% 5% 6% 4% 4% 4%

3%

Don't Know/Refused to Answer 31

Given its capacities, how do you feel the Macedonian government has handled the refugee crisis? 21%

It is providing too much support to the refugees

28% 27% 34%

It is providing sufficient support to the refugees

37% 35%

11% 10% 9%

It is providing some support, but needs to do more for the refugees

16% 16% 14%

It is not providing sufficient support to the refugees I am not aware of the current refugee crisis

4% 5%

Refuse to answer/Don't know

5%

0%

October 2015

5%

January 2016

7%

12% 11%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

April 2016 32

In your opinion, how is the European Union’s handling of the refugee crisis affecting Macedonia? 70% 59%

60%

54%

50%

46%

40% 30% 21% 20% 10%

16% 10%

18%

19%

17%

17%

13%

10%

0%

Positively

Negatively October 2015

It Has No Effect January 2016

Don't know/ Refused to answer

April 2016

33

Citizens’ Everyday Concerns and Economic Issues

Speaking personally, is your overall quality of life…? 60%

50%

54% 53% 48%

49%

50% 49% 50% 48% 48% 45%

32%

31% 24%

35%

37%

38%

19%

20%

22%

19%

20%

15%

16% 16% 13%

38%

31% 17% 14%

13%

15%

17% 13%

32%

15%

50% 45% 44%

37%

37%

33%

26%

53% 52% 47%

39%

37%

36%

53%

47% 47% 48% 40%

40%

30%

51%

42%

36% 37%

34%

18% 13% 12%

11%

14%

13%

10%

0%

1% 0%