Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine November 19-30, 2015
Detailed Methodology •
The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the International Republican Institute.
•
Data was collected throughout Ukraine (except the occupied territories of Crimea and part of the Donbas) between November 19-30, 2015, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home.
•
The sample consisted of 1,800 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative for the general population by age, education, region and size of the settlement. An additional 1,284 respondents were also surveyed from Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday methods for respondent selection. • Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except the occupied territories of Crimea and parts of the Donbas region (the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts not under the control of Ukrainian authorities). • Stage two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • City more than one million residents • City 500,000-999,000 residents • City 100,000-499,000 residents • City 50,000-99,000 residents • City to 50,000 residents
• Village • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of the population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: Primary sampling units were described. •
The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.3 percent.
•
Response rate was 65.9 percent.
•
Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
•
The survey was funded by the Government of Canada. 2
Detailed Methodology Donbas Oversample •
Data was collected throughout the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) between November 19-30, 2015, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes.
•
The sample consisted of 1,284 permanent residents of the Donbas region, aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, education, region and size of the settlement.
•
Multi-stage probability sampling method was used with random route and next birthday selection procedures. • Stage one: The Donbas regional territory was divided into Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The survey was conducted in all parts of those two oblasts under the control of Ukrainian authorities.
• Stage two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • City 500,000-999,000 residents • City 100,000-499,000 residents • City 50,000-99,000 residents
• City to 50,000 residents • Village • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: Primary sampling units were described.
•
The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.
•
Response rate was 59.7 percent.
•
Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
3
Geographical Key
Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, residents of Crimea and the separatist-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts were not included in this poll. Those areas with lines through them indicate territories not under the control of Ukrainian authorities.
4
Pessimism is High Following Two Years of Violent Conflict with Russia
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 80%
71% 66%
70%
72%
69%
64%
68%
70%
65%
60%
48%
50% 40%
34% 29%
30% 20% 10%
51%
16% 13%
20%
14%
16%
18%
15%
17%
May 2013
February 2014
27% 15%
18%
17%
15%
20% 13%
15%
15%
8%
0% November May 2012 2011
Right direction
April 2014 September July 2015 September Nationwide Donbas 2014 2015 November November 2015 2015
Wrong direction
Difficult to answer/No answer 6
In your opinion, are the national authorities of Ukraine doing enough to keep the liberated areas of the Donbas within Ukrainian territory?
6%
Donbas
Nationwide 3%
0%
18%
23%
18%
10%
Definitely yes
29%
32%
20%
30%
Somewhat yes
40%
24%
32%
50%
60% Definitely no
70%
15%
80%
90%
100%
Difficult to answer/No answer 7
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko is doing? Donbas November 2015
1% 9%
22%
56%
Nationwide November 2015
3%
22%
28%
September 2015
4%
20%
29%
July 2015
3%
21%
September 2014
0% Strongly approve
20%
19%
Somewhat approve
40%
50%
13%
10%
24%
20% 30%
8%
22%
33% 10%
6%
33%
36%
9%
6%
40%
40%
11%
March 2014
42%
34%
15%
April 2014
12%
11%
27% 60%
70%
Strongly disapprove
11% 80%
90%
100%
Difficult to answer/No answer 8
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers under Arseniy Yatsenyuk is doing? Donbas November 2015
Nationwide November 2015
September 2015
1% 4%
17%
68%
1% 11%
10%
25%
57%
5%
2% 11%
29%
54%
5%
July 2015
1% 10%
32%
52%
6%
September 2014
13%
April 2014
16%
March 2014
10%
Somewhat approve
27%
36%
12% 0%
Strongly approve
35%
16%
34% 20%
30%
15%
24%
17% 40%
50%
10%
8%
27% 60%
Strongly disapprove
70%
80%
9% 90%
100%
Difficult to answer/No answer 9
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing? Donbas November 2015
3%
20%
63%
Nationwide November 2015 1% 10% September 2015
September 2014
31%
10%
July 2015
52%
35%
9% 3%
14%
35% 14%
7%
48%
6%
49%
6%
36%
37%
9%
April 2014
6%
33%
24%
26%
11%
March 2014
6%
32%
24%
26%
11%
February 2014
2% 11% 0%
Strongly approve
10%
Somewhat approve
30% 20%
30%
50% 40%
50%
60%
Strongly disapprove
70%
8% 80%
90%
100%
Difficult to answer/No answer 10
What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (Nationwide) 9%
Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi Governor of Odesa oblast Mikhail Saakashvili
7%
Governor of Zakarpattya oblast Hennadiy Moskal
5%
32%
19%
28%
20%
24%
26%
5%
22%
27%
6%
18%
MP, leader Radical Party Oleh Lyashko 4%
19%
Businessman Rinat Akhmetov 4%
17%
MP, former leader of Right Sector Dmytro Yarosh 4%
17%
Former head of security services of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaychenko 3%
16%
Leader of Svoboda Oleh Tyahnybok 3%
15%
1% 11%
21%
Leader of Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) Hennadiy Korban 2% 9% Head of the opposition government Borys Kolesnikov 1% 8%
38%
20%
Somewhat favorable
Very unfavorable
Have not heard the name
1% 8% 5% 13% 8%
8%
3% 10% 5%
44%
44%
13%
9%
56% 58%
40%
14%
13% 41%
Former head of the Party of Regions faction Oleksandr Yefremov 1% 5%13%
Very favorable
16%
62%
26%
20%
2% 11%
52%
13%
0%
2% 9%
57%
22%
Head of the Donetsk military-civic administration Pavlo Zhebrivskyi 1% 6% 11%
6%
50%
15%
2% 9% 11%
43%
14%
29%
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk
7%
33%
23%
23%
41%
43%
19%
1%11%
7%
52%
23%
Former governor of Dnipropetrovsk oblast Ihor Kolomoiskyi
1% 13%
39%
16%
3% 9%
15%
34%
28%
MP, Leader of Opposition Block Yuriy Boyko
Head of the Lugansk military-civic administration Georgiy Tuka
14%
26%
Head of Parliament Volodymyr Hroisman 2% 13%
14%
2% 14%
25%
23%
MP, leader of Batkivshchyna Yuliya Tymoshenko
5%
31%
18%
Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko 4% President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko
21%
15% 13%
60%
9% 10%
80%
Difficult to answer/No answer
100%
11
What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (Donbas region) 13%
Businessman Rinat Akhmetov
22%
10%
MP, Leader of Opposition Bloc Yuriy Boyko 4% 20% Governor of Zakarpattya oblast Hennadiy Moskal
12%
3% 14%
2% 9%
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko
2%8%
Head of Lugansk military-civic administration Georgiy Tuka
1%7%
13%
MP, Leader of Batkivshchyna Yuliya Tymoshenko
1% 6%
51%
19%
13% 28%
59%
13%
46%
4% 21% Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk 1% 3% 15% MP, former leader of Right Sector Dmytro Yarosh
