Renewable Energy in India: From the Margins To Mainstream Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Department of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay

Lecture at Loughborough University - May 22, 2015

India and UK (Selected Indicators for 2012)

Population

1237 million

63.7 million

GDP (PPP) Primary Energy

5567 Billion 2005 US$ (4258 $/person) 32.9 EJ

2021 Billion 2005 US$ ( 31727 $/person) 8.0 EJ

Energy/person

26.6 GJ/person/year

125.6 GJ/person/year

Electricity/person

760 kWh/capita/year

5740 kWh/capita/year

CO2 emissions

1954 Million tonnes

484 Million tonnes

Per person

1.58 tonnes /capita/year

7.18 tonnes /capita/year

0.35 kg /US$ ppp

0.22 kg /US$ ppp

Per GDP http://www.iea.org/statistics/

2

Energy End Uses End Use

Energy Service

Device

Cooking

Food Cooked

Chullah, stove

Lighting

Illumination

Incandescent Fluorescent, CFL

Transport

Distance travelled

Cycle, car, train, motorcycle, bus

Motive Power

Shaft work

motors

Cooling

Space Cooled

Fans,AC, refrig

Heating

Fluid heated

Boiler, Geyser

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Kaya identity: Total CO2 Emissions = (CO2/E)(E/GDP)(GDP/Pop)Pop CO2/E – Carbon Intensity E/GDP- Energy Intensity of Economy  Mitigation – increase sinks, reduce sourcesaforestation, fuel mix,energy efficiency, renewables,nuclear, carbon sequestration  Adaptation 

Source: IPCC, 2011

5

Renewables – Increasing ? 

 

What is the share of renewables in India’s supply mix? How has this changed over the last 25 years? What will be the renewables share after 20 years?

6

7

Installed Capacity - India 2015 (as on 31.03.15) Diesel, 1200

Renewables, 31692

Waste to Power, 115

Solar Power , 3744

Bagasse, 3008 Hydro (Res.), 41267

Biomass, 1410

Small Hydro power, 4055 Natural Gas, 23062

Wind power, 23444

Coal, 164636.0

Nuclear, 5780

2,67,637 MW total installed capacity

35777 MW total installed capacity

Source: Ministry of Power and MNRE, Govt. of India 8

Coal Production in India 500 Production

450

Annual Production( Million Tonnes)

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1870

1890

1910

1930

1950 Year

1970

1990

2010

Coal Reserves (India) 4500.00

Production (mt)

4000.00 3500.00

267210 mt

3000.00

105820 mt

2500.00

61000 mt

2000.00

30000 mt

1500.00

Actual production mt

1000.00 500.00 0.00 1930

2030

2130 Year

300000

Power Plant capacity additions 15%

Target (MW)

Achieved (MW)

8th Plan - 11th Plan

250000

5% 200000

Coumpund annual Growth Rate of Actual Installed Capacity, every 5 Year Plan

150000

4%

100000

8% 9%

50000

10%

4% 13%

15%

13%

10%

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

1967

1965

1963

1961

1959

1957

1955

1953

0 1951

MW

4%

Power Generation – Supply mix 100%

80%

60%

Nuclear

Thermal 40%

20%

0 100%

0

Renewables (incl Hydro) TIFAC, 2013

12

Primary Energy Mix 100%

80%

60%

Oil and Gas

Coal 40%

20%

Renewables and Nuclear TIFAC, 2013

13

Renewable installed capacity and generation Installed Capacity* (MW)

Estimated Capacity factor

Wind

22645

14%

27771

Biomass Power

1365

70%

8371

2818

60%

14813

4025

40%

14105

115

50%

504

Solar PV

3383

19%

5630

Total

34351

25%

71195

Bagasse Cogeneration Small Hydro Waste to Energy

* as on 28.02.2015

Estimated Generation (GWh)

MNRE website: www.mnre.gov.in 14

Nuclear Plants in India Source:NPCIL

Renewable Share in Power 14

Share of total %

12

Renewable Installed Capacity

10

8

Renewable Generation

6

4

2

Nuclear Installed Capacity

Nuclear generation 0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year 16

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Historical Household Electrification Rates

GEA, Chapter 19 17

Energy and Peak Deficit

Source: CEA, 2011

18

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

25.0

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

Share of Energy Imports India

30.0

Import Share (INDIA)

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

19

India Abatement Curve

Source: McKinsey

Need for Alternatives  



 

Fossil fuel reserves limited India - 17% of World population, 5% of primary energy Present pattern – predominantly fossil based (87% comm, 64% total) More than 40 % households unelectrified Linkage between energy services and quality of life

Rx for Energy Sector   



Paradigm shift – focus on energy services ‘Shortage of supply’ to ‘longage of demand’ Present energy systems unsustainableresources, climate change, environmental impact Transition to renewables, clean coal, nuclear, efficiency

Goals for the Energy sector #1 Provide Access to “convenient” energy services, affordable #2 Make new technologies attractive to investors #3 Develop sustainable energy systems – Climate, local emissions, land, water

Renewable Energy Options

Small Hydro

Solar Wind

Biomass

Ocean Thermal Energy Solar Thermal

Solar Photovoltaic

Tidal Energy

Wave Energy Geothermal*

End-uses

Cooking

Transport

Cooling

Motive Power

Electricity

Cooling

Lighting

Heating

Heating

25

Renewable installed capacity and generation Installed Capacity* (MW)

Estimated Capacity factor

Wind

22645

14%

27771

Biomass Power

1365

70%

8371

2818

60%

14813

4025

40%

14105

115

50%

504

Solar PV

3383

19%

5630

Total

34351

25%

71195

Bagasse Cogeneration Small Hydro Waste to Energy

*as on 28.02.2015 www.mnre.gov.in

Estimated Generation (GWh)

MNRE website: 26

Solar Power : Potential and Cost

Solar Insolation and area required = 2500 sq.km

= 625 sq.km

Source: World Energy Outlook – 2008, International Energy Agency

28

Wind Power  









22600 MW installed Single machine upto 2.1 MW Average capacity factor 14% Capital cost Rs 60 million/MW, Rs 5-6/kWh (cost effective if site CF >20%) India 103000 MW (potential estimated ) Growth rate 30% per year

Satara, Maharashtra

29

Small Hydro Power 



 



Classification - Capacity -Micro less than 100 kW Mini 100 kW - 3 MW Small 3 MW - 15 MW Micro and Mini - usually isolated, Small grid connected Heads as low as 3 m viable Capital Cost Rs 50-60 millions/MW , Rs 3.50-4.50/kWh Growth rate 7%/year

200 kW Chizami village, Nagaland

Aleo (3MW) Himachal Pradesh

Geothermal/OTEC/Tidal/Wave World

Cost Estimates

Geothermal

COMMERCIAL 8240 MW

4c/kWh $2000/kW No Indian experience 50 MW plant J & K planned

Tidal

PROTOTYPE

240 MW FRANCE

LF 20% No Indian experience (3.6MW planned Sunderbans)

OTEC

PROTOTYPE

50 kW 210 kW NELHA

India 1MW gross plant under construction

Wave Energy

PROTOTYPE

< 1MW Grid Connected

India 150kW plant Thiruvananthpuram

31

Map of India showing the geothermal provinces

32

OTEC plant schematic

33

Mooring Arrangement

34

Biomass Conversion Routes BIOMASS BIOCHEMICAL

THERMOCHEMICAL COMBUSTION RANKINE CYCLE

GASIFICATION PYROLYSIS DIGESTION PRODUCER GAS

ATMOSPHERIC Duel Fuel SIPGE Gas Turbines

BIOGAS

FERMENTATION

ETHANOL

PRESSURISED

35

Cost of Electricity Generation Capital cost Rs/kW Biomass Gasifier

Solar PV + Battery

65,000

1,25,000

90,000

1,55,000

1,15,000

1,90,000

Biomass Power 







 

Higher Capacity factors than other renewables Fuelwood, agricultural residues, animal waste Atmospheric gasification with dual fuel engine 1 MW gasifier - largest installation Combustion – 5-18 MW Rs 5-6/kWh

100 kWe Pfutseromi village, Nagaland

Kaganti Power Ltd. Raichur Distt. A.P. 7.5 MW 37

Biomass Gasifier Example Arashi HiTech Biopower, Coimbatore  1 MW grid connected  100% producer gas engines  Two gasifiers – coconut shells, modified to include other biomass  Chilling producer gas with VARS operated on waste heat

38

Biogas 

45-70% CH4 rest CO2



Calorific value 16-25MJ/m3





Digestor- well containing animal waste slurry Dome - floats on slurry- acts as gas holder



Spent Slurry -sludge- fertiliser



Anaerobic Digestion- bacterial action



Family size plants 2m3/day



Community Size plants 12- 150 m3/day



Rs 12-14000 for a 2m3 unit



Cooking, Electricity, running engine

Pura, Karnataka

39

22 ata 330o C

58 T/hr

FEED WATER

4.5T/hr

Feed water

27T/hr

26T/hr

BOILER 0.5T/hr

PRDS

BAGASSE 0.5T/hr MILLING PRDS

6 ata ~

2.5 MW

Process

2 ata

Flashed Condensate

STEAM TURBINE

Process

Schematic of typical 2500 tcd Sugar factory

40

BOILER Feed water

75 TPH, 65 ata, 480OC

STEAM TURBINE 9.5 MW Power export

13 MW BAGASSE

6 ata 4.5 TPH PROCESS 2 ata 2 ata

Process

Condenser

~

(Alternate fuel)

1.0 MW Mill drives

CONDENSER

ESS

BFP PROCESS Process

2.5 MW Captive load

PROPOSED PLANT CONFIGURATION: OPTION 2

41

#PV system

Grid connected 3 MW PV plant in Karnataka http://optimal-power-solutions.com

42

Solar Mission- JNSM Targets S.No.

Application segment

Target for Phase I Target for Phase (2010-13) II (2013-17)

Target for Phase III (2017-22)

1.

Solar collectors

7 million sq meters

15 million sq meters

20 million sq meters

2.

Off grid solar applications

200 MW

1000 MW

2000 MW

3.

Utility grid power, including roof top

1000-2000 MW

4000-10000 MW 20000 MW

43

Megawatt size grid solar power plants – India Project Developer

Project site

Capacity (MW)

PV Technology

Operation in Days

Generation in MWh

WBGEDCL*

Jamuria, Asansol, West Bengal

1

Crystalline Silicon Sept.09 - Aug. 10

614 (365)

1879.9 12.29%

Azure Power

Awan, Amritsar, Punjab

1

Crystalline Silicon Dec.09 to Nov.10

577 (365)

3312 16.92%

Mahagenco

Chandrapur, Maharashtra

1

a-Si Thin Films May 10 to Apr.11

448 (365)

1654.2 15.39%

Reliance Industries

Nagaur, Rajasthan

5

Crystalline Silicon, Thin Films, CPV

352 July 10 to June 11

7473.3 18.8%

Saphhire Industrial

Sivaganga, Tamil Nadu

5

a-Si Thin Films

190

4271.3

Sri Power

Chittoor, Andhra Pradesh

2

Crystalline Silicon CdTe Thin Film

92

901.9

Source: 32/54/2011-12/PVSE, MNRE

44

Source: Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis, IRENA, June 2012 45

Solar Tower E-Solar – Acme partnership First grid connected plant in India 2011 2.5 MW out of 10 MW installed Bikaner Rajasthan Double-axis softwaremirror tracking system Lightweight, small size 1 m2 flat mirrors Plant output not stabilised – insolation, auxiliary consumption

http://acme.in/solar/thermal.html

Non- operational?

46

Nokh (Godawari): 50 MW

Dhursar 125 MW Reliance/ Areva

Megha, AP, 50 MW 47

Strategy Import Complete plant

0%

National Test Facility



Completely

Indigenous

Prototype

 50 %

100 %

National Testing facility – Facilitate technology development

48

Objectives 

National Test Facility (for solar thermal applications)

•

Development of facility for component testing and characterization. Scope of experimentation for the continuous development of technologies.



1MW Solar Thermal Power Plant

•

•

Design & Development of a 1 MW plant. Generation of Electricity for supply to the grid. Development of technologies for component and system cost reduction.



Development of Simulation Package

• •

• •

Simulation software for scale-up and testing. Compatibility for various solar applications.

49

Planned Mode KG DS

50

Time Line Steam Generation Steam from LFR Blowing

Foundation Stone

Project Start

Sep. 7, 2009

Preliminary Version (v0.0) Released Jan. 2010

Jul. 2011

Turbine Rolling

Grid Feeding, Test Rig Ready

Grid Synchronisation

Final Version Ready

Evaluation Version (v1.0) Released

Sep. 2011

Oct. 2012

Nov. 2012

Jun. 21, Mar. 14, 2014 2013

Project End

May 2014

Aug. 2014

Mar. 6, 2015

Test Rig

Dish Concentrator

Test Building

52

User Interface: Main Window

Generation of user defined PFD using Simulator Typical 50 MWe Solar Thermal Power Plant

Direct Steam Generation Process Heat Application

Simplified Process Flow Diagram High Temperature Vessel

Pump-II 13 bar, 393°C 8.53 kg/s

42 bar, 350°C 1.93 kg/s Turbine 1 MWe Superheater

PTC Field (8175m2)

17.5 bar, 232°C 8.53 kg/s

0.1 bar, 45.5°C 1.78 kg/s

44 bar, 256.1°C 0.84 kg/s (Sat. Steam) Steam Separator

Steam Generator

LFR Field (7020m2) 46.3 bar, 171°C 2.22 kg/s

Preheater

Pump-III Cooling Water

45 bar, 105°C 1.09 kg/s Pump-VI

Pump-I

Low Temperature Vessel

Pump-V

Deareator

Pump-IV

Source: ISES, 2013

Trough Field 8175 m2 area – 3 MWth

LFR Field

7020 m2 area – 2 MWth

56

Arial view of 1 MWe Solar Thermal Power Plant and Test Facility by IIT Bombay

Alternative Vehicles

Hydrogen bikes - BHU

Reva: Electric vehicle http://beta.thehindu.com/ Jatropha plant

58

Solar Lanterns

www.ariesindustries.net/products.htm

www.tatabpsolar.com

59

Solar Home Lighting

Solar Power Supply www.tatabpsolar.com Solar Home Lighting 60

Gasifier Cook stove Designs

Source: Anderson, 2012

61

Rice Husk gasifier Cookstoves

Source: Anderson, 2012

62

Oorja stove

Source: Mukunda et al, 2010 http://www.firstenergy.in 63

Biolite Stove

Source: GEA Chapter 10

http://www.biolitestove.com

64

Sampada Biomass Gasifier Stove

Source: www.arti-india.org/

65

Compact Biomass Gasifier

Source: www.arti-india.org/

1 m3 – digestor – 2 kg kitchen waste 0.5 m3 – digestor –1 kg kitchen waste 66

Frozen Efficiency Scenarios for 2035

6.4% (Moderate)

8% (High)

1.52

1.52

2010

2035 5% (Low)

Population (in billions)

1.15

1.52

GDP (in US 2005 Billion PPP)

3763

12743

17745

25771

GDP/ capita

3272

8383

11674

16954

Primary Energy (in EJ)

29

96

134

195

Primary Energy per capita (in GJ)

25

63

88

128

67

Business as Usual Scenarios for 2035 2010

2035 5% (Low)

6.4% (Moderate)

8% (High)

Population (in billions) GDP (in US 2005 Billion PPP)

1.15 3763

1.52 12743

1.52

1.52

17745

25771

GDP/ capita

3272

8383

11674

16954

Primary Energy (in EJ)

29

58

81

118

Primary Energy per capita (in GJ)

25

38

53

77

Electricity Supply (in billion units)

811

2746

3824

5554

Electricity Supply (in units/ capita)

705

1807

2516

3654

68

Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate) Electricity- High Coal (A) Supply Scenario (BAU) Projections for 2035

Coal

Natural Gas

% Electricity Supply Share

66%

12%

2%

3%

11%

6%

100%

Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kWh)

2524

459

76

115

421

229

3824

Average Load Factor

70%

70%

16%

70%

38%

26%

Installed Capacity (in GW)

412

75

55

19

126

101

69

Diesel

Nuclear

Renewa Hydro bles

Total

787

Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate)Electricity- High Renewables (B) Supply Scenario Green (Coal Low, Renewables High) Projections for 2035 % Electricity Supply Share Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kWh) Average Load Factor Installed Capacity (in GW) 70

Coal

Natural Nuclea Hydr Renewa Gas Diesel r o bles Total

50%

12%

2%

3%

11%

22%

100%

1912

459

76

115

421

841

3824

70%

70%

16%

70%

38%

26%

312

75

55

19

126

369

956

Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate)Electricity- High Nuclear (C) Supply Scenario Green (Coal Low, Nuclear High, Renewables Moderately High ) Projections for 2035 % Electricity Supply Share Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kWh) Average Load Factor Installed Capacity (in GW)

71

Coal

Natural Gas

Renewa Nuclear Hydro bles

Diesel

40%

12%

2%

13%

11%

22%

100%

1530

459

76

497

421

841

3824

70%

70%

16%

70%

38%

26%

249

75

55

81

126

369

Total

956

Power Generation – Supply mix A- 2035 B- 2035 80%

60%

C- 2035 Nuclear

Thermal 40%

20%

0

100%

Renewables (incl Hydro) 72

Renewable installed capacity and generation 2022 Installed Capacity* (MW) Wind Biomass Power

60000 5000

Bagasse Cogeneration Small Hydro Waste to Energy Solar PV Total

5000 10000 500 100000 180500

Estimated Capacity factor 14% 70% 60% 40% 50% 19% 25%

Estimated Generation (GWh)

73584 30660 26280 35040 2190 175200 342954

73

150000 Diffusion curve

140000

Upper limit of uncertainity

130000

Lower limit of uncertainity

120000 110000

Potential = 103000MW

Installed Capacity (MW)

100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Year

Diffusion Curves for wind energy

74

PV Installed Capacity Growth 4000

Installed Capacity(MW)

3500

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000

500 0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

75

PV Installed Capacity Projections Installed Capacity(MW)

100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

76

Plan Layout

77

A portion of the ELU map of Ward A of MCGM

Corresponding Satellite Imagery for the area from Google Earth

Analyzed in QGIS 1.8.0 To determine -Building Footprint Ratios - Usable PV Areas For Sample Buildings

78

Jan, 2014 Typical Load Profile vs PV Generation

0.185

Capacity Factor for Mumbai 1-Axis Tracking

2.5 0.175

2

MUs

1.5

1

0.5

1-Axis Tracking @ Highest eff. 1-Axix Tracking @ Median eff. 19 deg. Fixed Tilt @ Highest eff. 19 deg. Fixed Tilt @ Median eff.

0.165

0.155

Fixed Tilt @ 19 deg.

Annual Average with 1-Axis Tracking

0.145

0.135

0:01- 1:00 1:01- 2:00 2:01- 3:00 3:01- 4:00 4:01- 5:00 5:01- 6:00 6:01- 7:00 7:01- 8:00 8:01- 9:00 9:01-10:00 10:01-11:00 11:01-12:00 12:01-13:00 13:01-14:00 14:01-15:00 15:01-16:00 16:01-17:00 17:01-18:00 18:01-19:00 19:01-20:00 20:01-21:00 21:01-22:00 22:01-23:00 23:01-24:00

0 0.125

0.115 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

79

Source: A. Sarkar, ETV 2035

80

Large Scale Storage Options

Source: GEA, 2012

81

Bloomberg, 2014

9 Rs./kWh

6 Rs./kWh

3 Rs./kWh

Cost of Electricity ($/MWh)

82

TEAM SHUNYA SOLAR DECATHLON EUROPE 2014

83

House in Versailles – 26th June, 2014

Team Shunya 70 students

13 disciplines 12 faculty

No. of house holds: 29 Connected load : 1.4 kW

5 kWp Solar PV power plant at Rajmachi Village, Maharashtra Source: Manoj and Banerjee, 2010

85

Measurements Power(Watts) and Voltage (Volts)

1200

VOLTAGE

1000

POWER

800

600

400

200

0 0:00

2:24

4:48

7:12

9:36

12:00

14:24

16:48

19:12

21:36

0:00

Time (hrs)

86

Selco Case study 

 







For profit company – Solar Home systems – started 1996 – sold about 100,000 SHS 90% of products – credit schemes Partnership with 9 banks – interest rates between 12-17% Financing Institutions pay 85% of the amount- monthly payments of Rs 300- 400 over a period of 5 years Financing/ repayment options – tailormade to end users – paddy farmers – repayment schedule based on crop cycle, street vendors – daily payments – Rs 10 Funding from REEP – meet margin amount for poor customers, reduce interest rate

Source: SELCO, 2011

87

DESI Power         

Biomass based power solutions – Bihar- 25 kW to 100 kW Local distributors – decide pricing Registered under CDM and sold CERs to Swiss buyer MNRE funds, Promoters Equity, ICICI Loan Monthly rate based on no of bulbs / loads, Circuit breaker to limit consumption Irrigation pump users Rs 50/ hour, Household Rs 120- 150 per month Underground trunk wiring-distribution Enabling micro-enterprises –battery charging station, flour mill, workshop etc Tie up with Telecom towers – increasing capacity factor

88

Husk Power  

    

Initial funding – prize money 30-100 kW – biomass gasifiers- based on rice husk Energy audit of households Focus on household demand for lighting Lower production, operating costs – use of bamboo, asbestos Overhead pole wiring Directly reach end user 89

Power generated in MW

Wind Generation

2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

january June

Tamil Nadu 2006-7

July August September

9500

0

4

8

12 hours

16

20

24 9000 8500 8000 Jan-07 june july august sept

7500 7000

Total Generation

6500 6000 5500 5000 0

4

8

12

16

20

24

90

2000

January

Hourly variation of wind power

1500

June 1000

500

September

0 0

4

8

12

16

20

1200

24

Hours

1000

Wind energy generated (MU)

Power generated in MW

2500

800

600

Mean value

400

200

0 JAN

Monthly variation of wind energy generated

FEB MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV DEC

Months

91

Impacts on LDC

92

HDI and Electricity use

Source: Pasternak, 2000

93

Summary   

 

   

Renewables – from margins to mainstream Significant potential – almost cost –effective in niches Competition among renewables -Wind, Small hydro, Biomass, Solar PV, Solar Thermal Reductions in Capital cost Intermittency, Variability – better forecasting, modelling, Intelligence Efficiency and Renewables Decentralised vs Centralised Need for Hybridisation, Storage, Demand Response Innovation, Technology Development , R&D

References 

      



   

GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035– draft in progress J.M. Cullen and J.M. Allwood: The efficient use of energy: Tracing the global flow of energy from fuel to service,Energy Policy 38 (2010) Integrated Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission, 2006 www.mnre.nic.in Tejal and Banerjee, 2011: Power Sector Planning in India, Journal of Economic Policy and Research, 7(1), 1-23, October, 2011. R.Singh and R.Banerjee, Solar Energy, 2015 Wiel S. (2001): Energy Efficiency Labels and Standards, S. Wiel and J.E. McMahon, eds. (Washington, D.C., Collaborative Labelling and Appliance Standards Programme (CLASP). P.Enkvist,T.Naucler, J.Rosander, A cost curve for GHG reduction, Mckinsey Quarterly,2007, no1, p 35-45 Taylor et al, Financing Energy Efficiency, Lessons from Brazil, China, India and Beyond, World Bank, Washington D.C., USA, 2008 Rockstrom et al, Ecology and Society 14(2): 32, 2009 www.ipcc.ch [email protected] www.oilnrgy.com

Thank you